For the weather that's effecting the grain market(growing crop) go here:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/9309/
Corn/beans were lower overnight and early Wednesday as the heat ridge in week 2 looks less impressive and we've added a bit of rain to the forecast.
The weather forecast will be changing, sometimes every few hours as we go forward.
Key point from below:
SX gapped higher on the open Tuesday. This was clearly a break away gap as viewed from Tuesdays's trading(gap between 899-905). We closed close to the highs, up almost 30c. However, on Wednesday, we went down to 900 and whittled the gap down to 1c(899-900) and have traded in the gap for much of the morning. This very weak trading, if it would continue and we fill the gap, would cause yesterdays technical formation on the charts to be a buying exhaustion(gap and crap) and be bearish.
12:45 am update, we just filled the gap, barely at 899 in SX, I am guessing from the cold fronts on the 12z GFS and no mega dome like we had on Monday Night.
Crop condition report from the USDA on Monday:
https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/prog3118.txt
I thought ratings could drop 1% or so since its been pretty dry in a lot of locations but it was also fairly cool last week, so stress was minimized.
Corn ratings stayed exactly the same as last week. 72% good to excellent. Last year we were 63% good to excellent.
Bean ratings were the same, with just a shift of 1% from exc to good but 70% good to excellent vs 59% a year ago.
HRS wheat dropped 1% to 78% gd/exc still very high, especially compared with 31% a year ago.
Cotton rating went up, +4% to 43% gd/ex vs 56% gd/ex a year ago.
Ratings from Monday don't matter anymore..........the market is trading the POTENTIAL amount of hot/dry weather that's coming up that will effect AUGUST ratings.
August is a critical month for determining bean yields as they fill pods during August.
Many think that yields for corn are determined during July and August doesn't matter that much anymore..........yes, it does!
Temperatures in August determine how plump the kernels get.......or don't get.
Latest forecast with less heat is less bullish corn than before.......might the forecast could change.
Heat Fill:
The solid lows are in for corn!
CZ Trading 35c off the lows right now and 43c off the late May highs. Charts below are for the front month Sept.
Corn historical perspective:
Who remembers $8 corn not so long(5 years) ago
Is the bottom in? If the heat returns in August and causes heat fill it is.
3 month below
1 year below
5 year below
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Lows are in for beans!
SX gapped higher on the open Tuesday. This was clearly a break away gap as viewed from Tuesdays's trading(gap between 899-905). We closed close to the highs, up almost 30c. However, on Wednesday, we went down to 900 and whittled the gap down to 1c(899-900) and have traded in the gap for much of the morning. This very weak trading, if it would continue and we fill the gap, would cause yesterdays technical formation on the charts to be a buying exhaustion(gap and crap) and be bearish.
SX is 70c+ off the lows(which were 10 year lows), still over $1.50 off the late May highs. Charts below are for the front month, Sept.
Soybeans: Wider perspective: Currently close to 10 year lows !!!!!
Soybeans 3 months below
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Soybeans 1 year chart below
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Soybeans 5 years below
Soybeans10years-Wow, look at that high from the drought of 2012...and demand, currently, we just bounced off of 10 year lows!
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By mcfarm - July 29, 2018, 5:59 p.m.
https://www.agweb.com/article/gulke-reasons-to-be-optimistically-cautious/?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiWTJReU1HUmlNalZtTTJFNCIsInQiOiI2aDgxSTRTRSs0UDExaDR4R3p3aDRIdysxWHdxdTBVY2p5aHczY3ZucSs2dDB6amVibE1RQ25VcUdrejRndlVSbUVSdFlqY1pCbFZqUndDcVVxWXk0aEpabDVCXC9LQ3h5Z2FNazVwZWRDemtFUnpaOVFEOGFLdk9IUHU5aVRYdk8ifQ%3D%3D some thoughts from an "expert" and some liken these experts to weathermen? what? that is mean!
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By wglassfo - July 29, 2018, 6:58 p.m.
Me thinks, when ever the dust settles, buyers will source grains where ever they are cheapest
I know this does not answer Sunday nite markets, but I wanted to point out that NAFTA or no NAFTA will not change Canadian imports/exports of beans
Either we need beans or we have a surplus and CBOT will determine the price
Tarriffs are a wild card and will not likely last for ever
We also grow a good amount of western prairie canola which is often shipped into Ontario/Quebec for crushing and animal feed where ever the ration allows
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By silverspiker - July 29, 2018, 7:42 p.m.
... you have been a much needed and well received asset to some very close friends and grain traders in the industry Mike...
.... when I say well appreciated I really mean well appreciated.
... the "Evansville Educator" has given crucial support too many in the trading spectrum... now it is Go Time again as I have been very hesitant to trade as in the last couple of months with pattern changes that I've never seen in trading before and would like to not sit on the sidelines as a spectator anymore as it seems like everybody's taken their chips off the table and everything seems equally divided into a what is mine and what is yours mentality .
You have actually been followed a lot more than you think you have in past years and I think you'll see some more of your silent followers show up with trading ideas in the near future...
Giving
IN GIVING, I OPEN TO MY HIGHEST PURPOSE.
The prayer of St. Francis tells us, “For it is in giving that we receive ...” The simple act of sharing with someone opens my heart, creating an awareness of the energetic link between that person and myself.
---- Evan
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By Jim_M - July 29, 2018, 9:24 p.m.
I don't have much to contribute tonight other than rain that was expected did little more than get the ground wet here in NE Ohio. Corn that looked great 3 weeks ago has rolling leaves and looks sick now.
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By silverspiker - July 29, 2018, 9:44 p.m.
EDIT @8:53 P.M. CST
... the Z-December Corn Is A Poppin' Again ...
... Pick your own upside targets... least path of resistance looks like 3-96- 1/2
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By pll - July 30, 2018, 6:02 a.m.
Good rain here in ECILL 2.4 since Sunday Morning and still raining. Corn seems maturing to fast here even with the good rains we have had. Ended up with 4.2 inches
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By cliff-e - July 30, 2018, 8:18 a.m.
It was too wet in Mn. So now when it's turning drier we're starting to see the stressful effects this dryness is having on the shallow rooted corn and soybeans. Things change in a hurry around here. The wheat crop continues to look like a bust due to excessive wet causing disease problems and more are opting to chop it for silage to feed to cattle. Good quality hay price is improving due to swathed hay being rained on too many times before it can be baled...and that's if the hay could be cut pre-bloom due to soggy field conditions.
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By mcfarm - July 30, 2018, 2:45 p.m.
yes, we got 4/10ths this morning....beautiful rain....things kind of fell apart and now its trying to rain again as we speak.....not to worry said the mets we have more chances tonite, and tomorrow the most likely percent of rain
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By silverspiker - July 31, 2018, 1:57 p.m.
Follow Up On The Z-December SoyMeal "Tiddily Wink" Bullish Set-Up... I just threw in a few first resistence points before the "Holy Ghost Explosion"... please remember that Soymeal is a commodity that is created to be sold "twice" through the Crush Spread...
... this is why I have the best response to any bullish set-ups before it EXPLODES quickly to the upside.... still looking for that 26.00 a ton (2600.00 per contract ) profit at the first stop 357.70 by this Friday...
SPIKE
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By silverspiker - July 31, 2018, 2:01 p.m.
The Corn Is Still A Poppin' ...
I am just going to show the current chart without any markings on it...
... to me, this chart just screams at me to lift all offers...MINE...
SPIKE
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By silverspiker - July 31, 2018, 2:01 p.m.
The soybean market yesterday was jerk jacked and November should be around 9:16 stop close only for buy stops on the close ....I decided to get long last night when my business comrade called up and said we have been jerk jacked...so go ahead and get long the beans and nail the landing on the close like olga korbet style
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... after the jerk-jack last thursday... I thought it might do all of this last Friday... but we were patient to wait to touch
off the 9-16 buy-stops on CLOSE only today.... will unload 2/3 of position... (novies were bought at 8-77 average
Thursday night)