CBOT Dec23 #corn reached 6-month lows Friday though is nearly identical to year-ago. Dec22 corn continued upward from here after the Ukraine invasion, topping $7/bu by April. Where is Dec23 headed now?
1hr
On this chart I replaced 2021 & 2020 with years with more similar price levels to now: 2011 & 2013. Very different paths taken from here.
Wheat price taking a big hit from precip on the way to help the drought stricken HRW crop, as mentioned yesterday:
More beneficial rain/snow out West
5 responses |
Started by metmike - Feb. 23, 2023, 11:25 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/93384/
These were the last ratings for Winter wheat at the end of last year:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/91204/
| Karen Braun@kannbwx A good portion of winter #wheat in the U.S. Plains - Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Colorado, Nebraska, South Dakota - is in poor or worse condition. Top grower Kansas is the worst at 43% poor/very poor. But look at drastic improvements vs last wk in other Plains states (Tex, OK, CO).  ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ · From the good/excellent angle, #wheat in Montana, Colorado and Oklahoma improved last week, but Texas was marginal and Kansas worsened. Also don't overlook SRW producer Illinois, just 30% g/e. Crops around the country will need a good replenishment come spring.  | Dec. 1, 2022, 6:28 p.m. metmike |
Total precip from the just out 12z GEFS.
Total snow below
Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
The drought monitor is LONGER TERM moisture. We've been busting the drought in many places this Winter! The Plains are still Extremely dry. However, an El Nino on the way brings increasing chances to wipe out that drought too.
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
sorry met mike didnt see you had this wheat thread already started,,,also wheat getting hit on peace whispers...any level to bottom? 650?
no reason to be sorry, cc. We appreciate all your posts!
MetMike
Is it too late to "save" the winter wheat crop? (Any HR agronomists opine, please)
My work suggests daily and weekly (primary) cycle lows to be established this week in the wheats, perhaps half primary lows in corn. (Beans may have lows midMarch) (Oats at expiration?)
(Cautionary Note: I tend to be early on trades! NG living proof)
tjc,
Great question!
Deep roots and solid establishment ahead of Winter are a key for especially being able to withstand adversity during Winter and avoiding Winterkill.
In the absence of harsh Winter weather, a crop going dormant in very poor condition can avoid being killed and can recover after coming out of dormancy.
How much recovery depends on
1. How bad the crop was going dormant
2. How bad/good the Winter was
3. How favorable the Spring weather is
Harsh Winter weather on top of very poor conditions going dormant = DEAD (or not far from it) WHEAT plants coming out of dormancy.
I am not tuned into exactly what kind of Winter it's been for the S.Plains with regards to extreme cold other than moisture continued to be very scarce with very little snow to protect the crop.
Extremely dry and bare soils on top of a poor crop makes Winterkill much more likely with less extreme cold.
-5 deg. F is sort of the threshold but you can have repeated freeze/thaw cycles that are bad or extreme warmth that tries to coax wheat out of dormancy...........then a cold blast above -5 deg. F on top of wheat thats a bit more vulnerable.
So it's possible for the wheat plants to make an almost miraculous recovery(wheat is known as the crop that's toughest to kill).
The first crop ratings in the Spring will help tell us how wheat did over the Winter.
+++++++++
Here's the 2 week precip forecast. Much of this is coming up in the next 24 hours.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/
Note that the heaviest stuff is just east of where its most needed. This is typical because Gulf moisture and dynamics don't come together until weather systems have crossed part of the Plains. There is often a well defined "dry line" west of which, we have very little moisture.
384 hour precip from the just out 0z GEFS:
2 things about problems for wheat. The panhandle areas of Texas and Ok. have had dust storms. I think that this is a big problem on top of no moisture. Not sure but I think that area is rated poor?
My local area in SE to EC Indiana the crop seems to me to be coming out of dormancy. Tillering and green up seem to be taking place from the accumulation of warm weather, and soil temps.
Soil Temparature Maps | GreenCast | Syngenta (greencastonline.com)
The danger temperature is 12F at tillering. This stage is followed by jointing, and the danger temp rises to 24F.(purdue field guide page 46)
IF, IF this warm up continues we could have more frost risk later on.
First and last freeze/frost dates for Rushville, IN ,United States (davesgarden.com)
JMHO
IT'S GREENING UP NICELY IN MY NECCO-DA-WOODS, TOO...PLENTY OF MOISTURE. WITH 2" OF RAIN, LAST WEEK ~ ANOTHER INCH FOR TODAY & WE'RE HEADING FOR BELOW FREEZING, COME THURS. NIGHTS 29 - FRIDAYS 23 ~ SATURDAYS 21.
BUT.... UNLESS IT'S A HUGE TYPO OR... A HUGE MISCALCULATION ~ WE'RE HEADED FOR A MINI BLIZZARD ALL DAY, ON FRIDAY. 25 MPH WINDS & 8" OF SNOW... PROTECTING THE WHEAT?
Great points cutworm,
For wheat to be hurt from a Spring freeze, it almost always has to be mostly out of dormancy based on historical events.
As the wheat comes out of dormancy and becomes more vulnerable, the ability to generate enough cold to hurt the wheat dwindles EVEN FASTER than this.
However, after the wheat comes completely out of dormancy, it gets into some stages where it becomes hyper sensitive to cold.
Temps well down in the 20's can obliterate yields on wheat in the boot stage and that is still possible well into the Spring.
Wheat heading or flowering is the most susceptible.
The 2 years of noteworthy Spring wheat freezes were 1997 and 2007.
AGRICULTURAL EXPERIMENT STATION
AND
COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICE
KANSAS STATE UNIVERSITY • MANHATTAN
SPRING FREEZE
INJURY
TO KANSAS WHEAT
https://bookstore.ksre.ksu.edu/pubs/c646.pdf
4/18/2007
https://www.agriculture.com/crops/wheat/production/Easter-freeze-aftermath_145-ar2498
"The wheat in Kentucky, Tennessee and the Missouri Bootheel is pretty much toast," writes Crop Talk poster wheatchris. "Any wheat drilled around mid-October has 80% to 90% of the heads dead, and it's too far along to regrow. It would have made 80 to 90 bushels [per acre], but now it's looking like 30 to 40 bushels [per acre] at best."
Elsewhere in the Midwest, it was the crop's delayed development that ended up being the "saving grace" for wheat in areas that analysts say will recover from the freeze.
"That was the saving grace for Ohio. Cold temperatures are most damaging to the crop when the wheat is at more advanced stages of development," Pierce Paul, an Ohio State University plant pathologist, says of the Ohio crop. "Some injury, seen as burning and discoloration of leaf tips, has occurred, and is more prevalent in fields with early-planted wheat. In addition, fields found in low-lying areas or planted with varieties that are more sensitive to cold temperatures tend to look worse."
Most-active CBOT #wheat futures hit new lows again Monday, trading just above $7/bushel mid/late session. The contract last traded below $7 on Sept. 22, 2021, though front-month wheat on Monday gained a $6-handle. Much different story from one year ago.
U.S. winter #wheat conditions, % good/excellent (vs month ago & year ago):
Kansas 19% (21% month ago, 25% last year)
Oklahoma 36% (17% ma, 11% ly)
Texas 19% (14% ma, 8% ly) Colorado 29% (38% ma, 21% ly)
Nebraska 19% (22% ma, 36% ly)
Montana 21% (16% ma, 21% ly)
U.S. winter #wheat, current % poor/very poor condition:
Kansas 51%
Oklahoma 41%
Texas 49%
Colorado 30%
Nebraska 40%
Montana 9%
CBOT December #corn, 2023 vs 2022. Average February price will be nearly the same for both years, but the journeys are very different.
Here's the same chart for new-crop November #soybeans, which traded notably lower this month versus Feb. 2022.
CPC's March 2023 outlook suggests much of the USA (except for the southeast) could be facing cooler-than-normal temperatures. Odds for above average precipitation prevail in the Ohio River Valley and in the west.
The danger temperature is 12F at tillering.
In my local area the wheat is starting to tiller.
I recorded 14 F last night
Is there damage???? to early to tell.
Thanks much cutworm!
Ill try to find out more on that.
vegetation was at least 10 days more advanced than average here, though we stayed above 20.
M,
What is the the prediction est. for the weather streams hitting the west coast to end? Does any of that precip help lake Powell?
