INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - March 1, 2023, 8 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Wednesday, March 1, 2023  

 



 

 

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

 

                       Composite Idx (previous 199.8)

 

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -13.3%)

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 147.1)

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -18.1%)

 

                       Refinance Idx (previous 469.9)

 

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -2.2%)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. February US Manufacturing PMI

 

                       PMI, Mfg (expected 47.8; previous 46.9)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. February ISM Report On Business Manufacturing PMI

 

                       Manufacturing PMI (expected 47.6; previous 47.4)

 

                       Prices Idx (previous 44.5)

 

                       Employment Idx (previous 50.6)

 

                       Inventories (previous 50.2)

 

                       New Orders Idx (previous 42.5)

 

                       Production Idx (previous 48.0)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. January Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place

 

                       New Construction (expected +0.2%; previous -0.4%)

 

                       Residential Construction

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 479.041M)

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (expected +1.0M; previous +7.647M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 240.066M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (expected +0.5M; previous -1.856M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 121.935M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (expected -0.5M; previous +2.698M)

 

                       Refinery Usage (expected 85.6%; previous 85.9%)

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.218M)

 

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.916M)

 

                        

 

11:00 AM ET. February Global Manufacturing PMI

 

                       PMI, Mfg (previous 49.1)

 



 

 

4:00 PM ET. February Domestic Auto Industry Sales

 


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes  

 



 

The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off February's high. Overnight trading set the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,802.84 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,397.84 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,397.84. Second resistance is the February 16th high crossing at 12,792.75. First support is the 50% retracement level of the October-February rally crossing at 11,773.24. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the October-February rallycrossing at 11,494.88.



The March S&P 500 was slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the October-February rally crossing at 3868.84 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4084.15 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4084.15. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 4208.50. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-February rally crossing at 3948.84. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-February rally crossing at 3868.84. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 121-10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 126-25 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 124-24. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 126-25. First support is the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 123-12. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 121-10.  



March T-notes were slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 110.035 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.166 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 111.127. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.166. First support is the 75% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 110.309. Second support is 87% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 110.035. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



ENERGIES:Aprilcrude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Wednesday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $77.82 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-term gains. If April renews the decline off February's high, February's low crossing at $72.64 is the next downside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at $80.78. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $82.89. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $73.80. Second support is February's low crossing at $72.64.  



April heating oil is was steady to slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.9150 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while renewing the rally off February's low. If April renews the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.4732 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.9150. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $3.0487. First support is February's low crossing at $2.6350. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.4732. 



April unleaded gas was slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off last-Friday's low, February's high crossing at $2.7303. If April renews the decline off February's high, February's low crossing at $2.4671 is the next downside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at $2.7303. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $2.8578. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $2.5195. Second support is February's low crossing at $2.4671.    



April natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Wednesday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.146 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.506 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 2.788. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.146. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 2.113. Second support is the September-21st-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.795.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.731 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March extends the rally off February's low, the 38% retracement level of the September-February decline crossing at $105.979 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $105.320. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the September-February decline crossing at $105.979. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $103.731. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $103.155.  



The March Euro was higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.07555 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at $1.05290 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.07191. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.07555. First support is January's low crossing at $1.05290. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 1.03601.



The March British Pound was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2162 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at 1.2083 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2162. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.2462. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1.1920. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.2083.  



The March Swiss Franc was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 1.05461 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.08584 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.07515. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.08584. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.06185. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 1.05461.

 

The March Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are poised to turn neutral to bullish with additional strength that would signal that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $74.32 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at $73.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $73.88. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $74.32. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $73.18. Second support is January's low crossing at $73.10.  



The March Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.071710 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.075382 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.074200. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.075382. First support is the 50% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.073136. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.071710.

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



Aprilgold was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1863.40 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If April resumes the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-February crossing at $1772.80 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1863.40. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1879.00. First support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at $1811.60. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-February crossing at $1772.80.



March silver was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at $20.326 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $21.885 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $21.329. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $21.885. First support Tuesday's low crossing at $20.475. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at $20.325.     



March copper gapped up and was higher overnight as it extends the rally off Monday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, February's high crossing at 4.2370 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.0431 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 4.2370. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 4.3550. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 3.9285. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 3.7956. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



May corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the August 18th low crossing at $6.15 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.67 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.67 3/4. Second resistance is the February 21st high crossing at $6.82 1/2. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $6.30. Second support is the August 18th low crossing at $6.15 1/4.  



May wheat was higher in quiet trading overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned decline, the September-2021 low crossing at $6.81 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.60 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.60 1/4. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $8.07 1/2. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $7.02 1/2. Second support is the Sept.-2021 low crossing at $6.81 3/4. 



May Kansas City wheat was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at $8.00 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.68 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.54 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.68 1/4. First support is the January 23rd low crossing at $8.06 3/4. Second support is January's low crossing at $8.00 1/4.



May Minneapolis wheat was steady to lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the January-2022 low crossing at $8.42 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.07 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.97 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.07 3/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $8.63. Second support is the January-2022 low crossing at $8.42 1/4.  



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



May soybeans were higher overnight as they consolidates some of the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the January 25th low crossing at $14.76 would open the door for a possible test of the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $14.53 3/4. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.19 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $15.09. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.19 1/4. First support is the January 25th low crossing at $14.76. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $14.53 3/4.

 

May soybean meal was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's sharp sell off. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. However, stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $463.10 is the next downside target. If May resumes the rally off January's low, psychological resistance crossing at $500.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at $488.60. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $500.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $463.10. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $446.80.



May soybean oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the February 10th low crossing at 59.04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.06 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.96. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.06. First support is the February 10th low crossing at 59.04. Second support is February's low crossing at 58.70. 


Comments
By metmike - March 1, 2023, 8:47 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!