KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, March 6, 2023
10:00 AM ET. January Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
Total Orders, M/M% (previous +1.8%)
Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +2.0%)
Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous -1.2%)
Durable Goods, M/M%
Durable Goods, M/M%
Tuesday, March 7, 2023
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +4.9%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +5.3%)
10:00 AM ET. March IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
Economic Optimism Idx (previous 45.1)
6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 39.7)
10:00 AM ET. January Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
3:00 PM ET. January Consumer Credit
Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous +11.6B)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +6.2M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.8M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.3M)
Wednesday, March 8, 2023
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 188.5)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -5.7%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 138.8)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -5.6%)
Refinance Idx (previous 444)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -5.5%)
8:15 AM ET. February ADP National Employment Report
Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (previous +106000)
8:30 AM ET. January U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
Trade Balance (USD) (previous -67.42B)
Exports (USD) (previous 250.15B)
Exports, M/M% (previous -0.9%)
Imports (USD) (previous 317.57B)
Imports, M/M% (previous +1.3%)
10:00 AM ET. January Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 480.207M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.166M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous -1.192M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.874M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 122.114M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.179M)
Refinery Usage (previous 85.8%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.413M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.195M)
12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)
Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)
Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)
Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)
2:00 PM ET. U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book
Thursday, March 9, 2023
730 AM ET. February Challenger Job-Cut Report
Job Cuts, M/M% (previous +136%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 190K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -2K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1655000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -5K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2114B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -81B)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
N/A U.S. President Joe Biden announces FY'24 Budget
Friday, March 10, 2023
8:30 AM ET. February U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (previous +517K)
Unemployment Rate (previous 3.4%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 33.03)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.1)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (previous +0.30%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +4.43%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.7)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0.3)
Government Payrolls (previous +74K)
Private Payroll (previous +443K)
Participation Rate (previous 62.4%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
2:00 PM ET. February Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts and Outlays of the U.S. Government.
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. Overnight tradingset the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,330.15 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If March renews the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the October-February rally crossing at 11,773.24 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,330.15. Second resistance is the February 16th high crossing at 12,792.75. First support is the 50% retracement level of the October-February rally crossing at 11,773.24. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the October-February rallycrossing at 11,494.88.
The March S&P 500 was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4063.14 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the October-February rally crossing at 3868.84 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4063.14. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 4208.50. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-February rally crossing at 3948.84. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-February rally crossing at 3868.84.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher overnight as they consolidate some of the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 126-25 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 122-06 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 126-25. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 128-28. First support is the 75% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 122-06. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 120-07.
June T-notes were higher overnight as they consolidates some of the decline off January's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off February's high, last-October's low crossing at 109.215 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.097 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.097. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.248. First support is the 87% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 110.198. Second support is last-October's low crossing at 109.215.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:Aprilcrude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off the February 22nd low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off the February 22nd low, February's high crossing at $80.78 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $75.83 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of February's low crossing at $72.64. First resistance is February's high crossing at $80.78. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $82.89. First support is the February 22nd low crossing at $73.80. Second support is February's low crossing at $72.64.
April heating oil is was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off the February 17th low. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.9180 would renew the rally off February's low while opening the door for a possible test of February's high crossing at $3.0487. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $2.8045 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.9180. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $3.0487. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $2.8045. Second support is February's low crossing at $2.6350.
April unleaded gas was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off the February 24th low, February's high crossing at $2.7616 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.6294 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at $2.7616. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $2.8578. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.6294. Second support is the February 24th low crossing at $2.5195. Third support is February's low crossing at $2.4671.
April natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.024 would open the door for additional short covering gains and a possible test of the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.667. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.576 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.024. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.667. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.576. Second support is February's low crossing at 2.113.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 104.053 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March resume the rally off February's low, the 38% retracement level of the September-February decline crossing at $105.979 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $105.320. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the September-February decline crossing at $105.979. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $104.053. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $103.209.
The March Euro was mostly steady in quiet trading overnight and sets the stage for a steady opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.07523 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at $1.05290 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.06741. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.07523. First support is January's low crossing at $1.05290. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 1.03601.
The March British Pound was lower overnight as it extends the February-March trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at 1.2083 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2150 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2150. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.2462. First support is the February 17th low crossing at 1.1920. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.2083.
The March Swiss Franc was slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.08462 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 1.05461 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.07794. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.08462. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.06025. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 1.05461.
The March Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-days. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at $73.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $74.29 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $74.29. Second resistance is the February 14th high crossing at $75.35. First support is the February 24th low crossing at $73.18. Second support is January's low crossing at $73.10.
The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extends last-week's trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.071710 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.075741 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.074741. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.076112. First support is the 50% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.073136. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.071710.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
Aprilgold was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off February's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $1880.60 is the next upside target. If April resumes the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-February crossing at $1772.80 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1880.60. Second resistance is the February 9th high crossing at $1902.30. First support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at $1811.60. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-February crossing at $1772.80.
May silver was slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $21.707 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at $20.458 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $21.707. Second resistance is the February 9th high crossing at $22.810. First support last-Tuesday's low crossing at $20.505. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at $20.458.
May copper was lower overnight as it extends the February-March trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the February 21st high crossing at 4.2130 or below the February 27th low crossing at 3.9370 would mark a breakout of the aforementioned trading range and point the likely direction of the next trending move. First resistance is the February 21st high crossing at 4.2130. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 4.3550. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 3.9285. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 3.7956.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
May corn was lower overnight as it consolidates some of its gains off last-Wednesday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.62 1/4 are needed to signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off February's high, the August 18th low crossing at $6.15 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.48 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.62 1/4. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $6.22 1/4. Second support is the August 18th low crossing at $6.15 1/4.
May wheat was lower overnight and appears to be renewing the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned decline, the September-2021 low crossing at $6.81 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.57 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.23. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.57 1/4. First support is the overnight low crossing at $6.97 3/4. Second support is the Sept.-2021 low crossing at $6.81 3/4.
May Kansas City wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at $8.00 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.60 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.34 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.60. First support isJanuary's low crossing at $8.00 1/4. Second support is the January 10th -2022 low crossing at $7.62.
May Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the February 4th-2022 low crossing at $8.42 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.04 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.82 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.04 3/4. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $8.60 1/4. Second support is the February 4th-2022 low crossing at $8.42 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans were lower overnight as they consolidates some of the rally off last-Tuesday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.18 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below theJanuary 25th low crossing at $14.76 would open the door for a possible test of the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $14.53 3/4. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $15.11 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $15.18 1/4. First support is the January 25th low crossing at $14.76. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $14.53 3/4.
May soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the rally off January's low, psychological resistance crossing at $500.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $465.20 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is February's high crossing at $488.60. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $500.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $465.20. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at $446.80.
May soybean oil was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews the decline off February's high, the February 10th low crossing at 59.04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 61.97 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 61.97. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 63.83. First support is the February 10th low crossing at 59.04. Second support is February's low crossing at 58.70.
Thanks very much tallpine!
NG got crushed today from massive HDD's vanishing over the weekend!