Updated crop conditions for #Argentina (March 9):#Soybeans71% poor (67% wk ago, 48% month ago, 20% yr ago) 2% good (2% wk ago, 13% month ago, 31% yr ago)#Corn59% poor (56% wk ago, 34% month ago, 22% yr ago) 5% good (6% wk ago, 20% month ago, 27% yr ago)
New-crop #corn futures have been losing their advantage over #soybeans in the last few weeks, but the bean/corn ratio is not definitively bean-favoring quite yet. Thursday's 2.46 compares with 2.31 both a month ago and on this same date last year.
It's interesting because the 2023 bean/corn ratio was trading sub-2.2 (def corn-favoring) at points last fall:
U.S. CPC issued its final #LaNina advisory Thursday as an ENSO-neutral pattern is favored into mid-year. Forecasters see 60%+ odds that #ElNino will set in toward the end of 2023.
metmike: The atmosphere has been acting like an El NIno for 2 months. This is why the West Coast has been getting bombarded with storms from atmospheric rivers with beneficial rain/snow which is eroded to eradicated the drought in the West.
The long lived La Nina is what caused the long lived drought the past 3 years. IT'S BEEN OVER for 2 months, despite the NOAA metrics which lag stating it's not over yet.
CBOT #wheat futures are still historically elevated versus most past years, though they have weakened 15% since the start of 2023, opposite to the year-ago trend. Wheat on Friday is trading about 20 cents above the same date 2 years ago but more than $4 off year-ago.
As of Feb. 21, the speculative net long (money manager plus other reportable traders) in CBOT #soymeal futures and options reached an all-time high of 173,690 contracts. The May 2018 record was actually broken in the previous week (Feb. 14). Futures have drifted 1% higher since.