INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - Aug. 1, 2018, 4:29 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Thursday, August 2, 2018  



7:30 AM ET. July Challenger Job-Cut Report



                       Job Cuts, M/M% (previous +18%)



8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales



                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1086K)



                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1501.9K)



                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 385.9K)



8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims



                       Jobless Claims (expected 220K; previous 217K)



                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +9K)



                       Continuing Claims (previous 1745000)



                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -8K)



9:45 AM ET. July ISM-NY Report on Business



                       Business Index (previous 55.0)



9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index



10:00 AM ET. June Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)



                       Total Orders, M/M% (expected +0.7%; previous +0.4%)



                       Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -0.1%)



                       Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.7%)



                       Durable Goods, M/M% (previous -0.6%)



                       Durable Goods, M/M% (previous -0.4%)



10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report



                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2273B)



                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +24B)

                       

2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting



4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings



4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Ban Holdings



4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures



Friday, August 3, 2018  



8:30 AM ET. July U.S. Employment Report



                       Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +190K; previous +213K)



                       Unemployment Rate (expected 3.9%; previous 4.0%)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 26.98)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.05)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.19%)



                       Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +2.7%)



                       Overall Workweek (previous 34.5)



                       Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)



                       Government Payrolls (previous +11K)



                       Private Payroll (previous +202K)



                       Participation Rate (previous 62.9%)



                       Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg



8:30 AM ET. June U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services



                       Trade Balance (USD) (expected -46.6B; previous -43.05B)



                       Exports (USD) (previous 215.33B)



                       Exports, M/M% (previous +1.9%)



                       Imports (USD) (previous 258.38B)



                       Imports, M/M% (previous +0.4%)



9:45 AM ET. July US Services PMI



                       PMI, Services (expected 56.2; previous 56.5)



10:00 AM ET. July ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business



                       Non-Mfg Composite Idx (expected 58.5; previous 59.1)



                       Non-Mfg Business Idx (previous 63.9)




The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""



The September NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Wednesday positive results from Apple buoyed the tech sector and helped the Nasdaq to keep a foothold in positive territory. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 7211.97 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of June's low crossing at 6956.00. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 7354.45 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is July's high crossing at 7530.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7211.97. Second support is June's low crossing at 6956.00. 



The September S&P 500 closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2769.76 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes this summer's rally, January's high crossing at 2885.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 2846.31. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 2885.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2802.83. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2769.76.  



The Dow closed lower on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but signaled another imminent rate increase, as expected. Fresh worries over the U.S.-China trade friction dampened sentiment. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 25,069.23 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If the Dow extends the rally off June's low, February's high crossing at 25,800.35 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 25,587.24. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 25,800.35. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 25,069.23. Second support is June's low crossing at 23,997.21.      



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



September T-bonds closed down 21/32's at 142-10.



September T-bonds closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, May's low crossing at 139-11 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 144-09 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 144-09. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 146-11. First support is today's low crossing at 141-27. Second support is May's low crossing at 139-11.       



September T-notes closed down 70-points at 119-065.



September T-notes closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 118.295 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.284 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 120.200. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 121.030. First support is June's low crossing at 118.295. Second support is May's low crossing at 117.300.      



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



September crude oil closed lower on Wednesday after official U.S. data revealed an unexpected climb of nearly 4 million barrels in domestic crude supplies, along with a drop in weekly production. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 62.99 is the next downside target. If September resumes the rally off July's low, July's high crossing at 72.98 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 72.98. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 77.18.First support is July's low crossing at 66.29. Second support is June's low crossing at 62.99. 



September heating oil closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's decline, July low crossing at 204.74 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 218.57 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 223.88. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 229.73. First support is today's low crossing at 208.88. Second support is July's low crossing at 204.74. 



September unleaded gas closed lower on Wednesday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 206.77 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's decline, July's low crossing at 197.15 is the next downside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 215.31. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 224.67. First support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 196.03. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 189.92.



September Henry natural gas closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off July's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.752 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.856 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.856. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.992. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.752. Second support is July's low crossing at 2.671.   



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The September Dollar closed higher on Wednesday as it extended a eight-day trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 93.87 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off July's low,weekly resistance crossing at 97.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 95.44. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.70. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 93.87. Second support is June's low crossing at 92.76.    



The September Euro closed lower on Wednesday while extending the May-July-trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If September renews the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 119.40 is the next upside target. If September resumes the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 115.82 is the next downside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 118.52. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 119.40. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 115.36. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.78.    



The September British Pound closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3286 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2857 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3286. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.3533. First support is July's low crossing at 1.2988. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2857. 



The September Swiss Franc closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If September extends the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 1.0302 is a potential upside target. If September resumes the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the 20016-2018-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 0.8880 is the next downside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 1.0204. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0302. First support is July's low crossing at 0.9984. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 20016-2018-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 0.8880.



The September Canadian Dollar closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 77.94 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.28 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 77.13. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 77.94. First support is July's low crossing at 75.31. Second support is June's low crossing at 74.80.  



The September Japanese Yen closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off May's high, the December-2016 low crossing at 0.8805 is the next downside target. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9088 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9088. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.9198. First support is July's low crossing at 0.8867. Second support is the December-2016 low crossing at 0.8805.   



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



October gold closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral signaling that sideways prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1190.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1239.70 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1239.70. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 1266.90. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1217.90. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1190.90.



September silver closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.688 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 15.145 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.688. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 16.260. First support is July's low crossing at 15.185. Second support is weekly support crossing at 15.145.        



September copper closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish  signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 250.74 is the next downside target. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 299.28 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 286.70. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 298.52. First support is July's low crossing at 267.35. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 250.74. 



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



December Corn closed down 7-cents at 3.79 1/2. 



December corn closed lower on Wednesday followed soybean prices lower on Wednesday as U.S.-China trade relations remain unresolved.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 3.89 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.67 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 3.89 3/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 3.99. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.67 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 3.50 1/4.  



December wheat closed up 6 1/4-cents at 5.79 1/2. 



December wheat closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, May's high crossing at 5.88 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.30 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 5.85 1/2. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 5.88. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.49 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.30 1/2.        



December Kansas City Wheat closed up 7-cents at 5.91 1/4. 



December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, May's high crossing at 6.15 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.36 1/4 would confirms that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 5.97 1/4. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 6.15 1/4. First support is 10-day moving average crossing at 5.56 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.36 1/4. 



December Minneapolis wheat closed up 3 1/4-cents at 6.26. 



December Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Wednesday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 6.45 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.74 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 6.45. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 6.60 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.95 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.74 3/4.  



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans closed down 17 3/4-cents at 9.01 1/4. 



November soybeans closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off July's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off July's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 9.42 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.69 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 9.15. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 9.42 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.69 3/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 8.26 1/4.



December soybean meal closed down $6.40 at 335.00. 



December soybean meal closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 343.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 329.10 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 343.60. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 348.60. First support is July's low crossing at 321.50. Second support is January's low crossing at 318.40. 



December soybean oil closed down 26-points. At 29.04. 



December soybean oil closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off July's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If December extends the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 30.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 28.73 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 29.39. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 30.00. First support is July's low crossing at 27.95. Second support is weekly support crossing at 26.99.

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



October hogs closed up $0.05 at $50.78. 



October hogs closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 46.24 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 53.29 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 55.98. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 58.86. First support is today's low crossing at 49.92. Second support is weekly support crossing at 46.24.  



October cattle closed up $0.98 at 110.28. 



October cattle close higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 108.02 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October extends the rally off July's low, July's high crossing at 111.53 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 111.23. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 113.33. First support is the reaction low crossing at 105.13. Second support is June's low crossing at 103.50.  

 

August Feeder cattle closed up $2.50 at $151.83. 



August Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 148.93 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If August renews the rally off May's low, is February's high crossing at 155.98 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 154.93. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 155.98. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 148.93. Second support is July's low crossing at 147.82.    



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



September coffee closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 10.56 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 11.34 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.      



September cocoa closed lower on Wednesday as it extended this summer's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this summer's decline, the 87% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 19.86 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.45 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.



October sugar closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off June's high. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remains neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 10.13 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.09 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. 



October cotton closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 87.99 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October extends the rally off July's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 92.48 is the next upside target. 

Comments
By metmike - Aug. 1, 2018, 5:20 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!