This one is always a HUGE report!
Analysts see 2023 U.S. #corn plantings up 2.6% on the year, #soybeans up 0.9% and all #wheat up 6.8% ahead of USDA's March 31 report.Beware of the soybean range - it's the narrowest in at least 16 years and MUCH smaller than in recent years - that's how surprises happen.
Analysts see all U.S. #wheat acres up 6.8% on the year to a seven-year high, incl. modest rises in spring and durum wheat. USDA last month tentatively put all U.S. wheat acres in 2023 at 49.5M, up 8.2% on the year, the biggest yearly rise since 1996.
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#Corn range is much better at 4.4M acres - the largest since 2009 (also true by %). But will it be roomy enough? March corn acres have landed outside the range of analyst estimates in SIX of the last SEVEN years.
Trade estimates show 2023 U.S. #cotton + small grain acres down 2M (7%) on the year. This makes room for more corn, soy & wheat acres. Cotton plantings of 11.2M acres would be the fewest since 2016 but very close to 2021's area.
U.S. farmers are expected to plant 4% more #corn in 2023 versus 2022, driven by acreage increases in almost every key state. The I-States plus Minnesota will add 1M, while North Dakota will add 800k after excessive spring moisture curbed plantings last year.
U.S. farmers in 2023 plan to plant slightly more #soybeans versus last year, driven by an increase in the Dakotas. Kansas and some mid-south states plan to reduce plantings on the year.
U.S. farmers report that they significantly increased plantings of winter #wheat for the 2023 harvest versus last year. +2.2M acres in KS & TX alone. Winter wheat acres at 37.5M is an 8-year high.
Here's how the March intentions for 2023 U.S. winter #wheat plantings differ from the 2023 winter wheat seedings back in January - 2% growth overall.
So.... March 1, 2024 #wheat stocks will be bullish? JK but might be a good bet if you like patterns. The analyst guess was too low on wheat stocks Friday, but there was a big upward adjustment in the Dec. 1 stocks that more than accounted for the trade miss.
Analysts have overestimated March 1 U.S. #corn stocks four years in a row now, but the number has been pretty close to expectations for the past three years.
The streak is broken - analysts overestimated March 1 stocks of U.S. #soybeans for the first time since 2016. Reported stocks came in 57 mln bu below expectations, by percentage the most bullish March 1 number since 2011.
Mixed trade bias for March #corn acres continued in 2023 as the trade guess was too low but the closest to actual by % since 2017. Actual of 92M acres was close to the highest analyst estimate. Also, corn acres didn't violate the trade range for the first time since 2018
Analysts were 2% too low on all U.S. #wheat planting intentions, which came in at 49.86M acres, an 8-year high. Trade had pretty big underestimations in 2018, 2021 and 2023, but otherwise they have been too optimistic in recent years.
Analysts reverted back to their old ways on planting intentions for U.S. #soybeans, pegging acres too high once again. In the last 15 years, March soy plantings have come in above the trade guess only 3 times. By percent, trade and actual were the closest since 2014.
