The atmosphere continues like El Nino
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Started by metmike - March 28, 2023, 8:02 p.m.

Amazing, rapid warm up of the tropical Pacific Ocean this year. This huge CHANGE in the ocean temperature has caused the atmosphere to behave like a full fledged El Nino even though NOAA's lagging indicators tell us the real El Nino is still months away.

It's been here since January as far as the atmosphere is concerned.


Previous discussions:

                More atmospheric rivers/La Nina is dead            

                   24 responses         Started by metmike - March 10, 2023, 10:31 p.m.    

       https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/93716/


   Good bye La Nina            

                            16 responses |              

                Started by metmike - Jan. 19, 2023, 10:05 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/92327/


Comments
By metmike - March 28, 2023, 8:19 p.m.
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March 27, 2023

ENSO: Recent Evolution,
Current Status and Predictions
Update prepared by:
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf


Looking at an incredibly fast warm up.






Look at all the sub-surface warmth!


Note below that this is the latest average, Dec-Feb,  3 month average. It still shows La Nina. The atmosphere, which is what matters the most has been acting El Nino for several months. 


Same here. The 3 month average is an EXTREME lagging indicator.


The 3 month, very lagging indicator is forecasting an El Nino to return by late Summer. The CPC/NOAA is way late in using these models to predict when the already happening El Nino will flip their indicators to tell us what the observations of the atmosphere have been telling us all year.





Huge precip amounts this year below. Erasing the drought in CA and easing it in many other places out West.


By metmike - March 28, 2023, 10:35 p.m.
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Look at some of the incredible, record snowpack in some of the places in purple in the Southwest.

This is just what the drought doctor ordered out there.

The MSM that bombarded us with article after article about the drought is pretty silent about the wonderful benefits!

Instead, focusing mostly on negative aspects of the heavy precip which is filling up reservoirs and replenishing soil and storage moisture. 


https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/west_swepctnormal_update.pdf

By metmike - March 29, 2023, 1:05 a.m.
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The rapidly warming tropical Pacific is belching out massive amounts of  extra heat into the atmosphere Compared to the amounts of previous/recent La Nina years.

After a 6 year pause in global warming,  mostly from the long lived natural La Niña  the last 3 years, which was cool water anomalies in this same area, the tropical pacific, look for global temperatures to start spiking higher again, starting NOW!

this bodes well for the US drought to continue to erode and for good growing season weather for our crops.

there’s a strong correlation between global warming and record crop production in the US. The last 4 decades have featured the best weather and climate for growing crops in US history not despite climate change/global warming but because of it.

the upcoming Spring could be wet, however which increases risks for planting delays.

By metmike - March 29, 2023, 6:18 p.m.
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For those that insist the recent drought out West, followed by the extreme precip this year was/is being caused by climate change..........the data proves otherwise!!!!


The weather 160 years ago out there was far more extreme. Not even close.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Flood_of_1862

The Great Flood of 1862 was the largest flood in the recorded history of California, Oregon, and Nevada, inundating the western United States and portions of British Columbia and Mexico. It was preceded by weeks of continuous rains and snows that began in Oregon in November 1861 and continued into January 1862. This was followed by a record amount of rain from January 9–12, and contributed to a flood that extended from the Columbia River southward in western Oregon, and through California to San Diego, and extended as far inland as Idaho in the Washington Territory, Nevada and Utah in the Utah Territory, and Arizona in the western New Mexico Territory. The event dumped an equivalent of 10 feet (3.0 m) of water in California, in the form of rain and snow, over a period of 43 days.[3][4] Immense snowfalls in the mountains of far western North America caused more flooding in Idaho, Arizona, New Mexico, as well as in Baja California and Sonora, Mexico the following spring and summer, as the snow melted.

The event was capped by a warm intense storm that melted the high snow load. The resulting snow-melt flooded valleys, inundated or swept away towns, mills, dams, flumes, houses, fences, and domestic animals, and ruined fields. It has been described as the worst disaster ever to strike California.[5] The storms caused approximately $100 million (1861 USD) in damage, approximately equal to $3.117 billion (2021 USD). The governor, state legislature, and state employees were not paid for a year and a half.[2] At least 4,000 people were estimated to have been killed in the floods in California, which was roughly 1% of the state population at the time.[1]

The Great Flood of 1862 was the largest flood in the recorded history of California, Oregon, and Nevada, inundating the western United States and portions of British Columbia and Mexico. It was preceded by weeks of continuous rains and snows that began in Oregon in November 1861 and continued into January 1862. This was followed by a record amount of rain from January 9–12, and contributed to a flood that extended from the Columbia River southward in western Oregon, and through California to San Diego, and extended as far inland as Idaho in the Washington Territory, Nevada and Utah in the Utah Territory, and Arizona in the western New Mexico Territory. The event dumped an equivalent of 10 feet (3.0 m) of water in California, in the form of rain and snow, over a period of 43 days.[3][4] Immense snowfalls in the mountains of far western North America caused more flooding in Idaho, Arizona, New Mexico, as well as in Baja California and Sonora, Mexico the following spring and summer, as the snow melted.

The event was capped by a warm intense storm that melted the high snow load. The resulting snow-melt flooded valleys, inundated or swept away towns, mills, dams, flumes, houses, fences, and domestic animals, and ruined fields. It has been described as the worst disaster ever to strike California.[5] The storms caused approximately $100 million (1861 USD) in damage, approximately equal to $3.117 billion (2021 USD). The governor, state legislature, and state employees were not paid for a year and a half.[2] At least 4,000 people were estimated to have been killed in the floods in California, which was roughly 1% of the state population at the time.[1]

Background

The weather pattern that caused this flood was not from an El Niño-type event, and from the existing  Army and private weather records, it has been determined that the polar jet stream was to the north, as the Pacific Northwest experienced a mild rainy pattern for the first half of December 1861. In 2012, hydrologists and meteorologists concluded that the precipitation was likely caused by a series of atmospheric rivers that hit the Western United States along the entire West Coast, from Oregon to Southern California.[6]

An atmospheric river is a wind-borne, deep layer of water vapor with origins in the tropics, extending from the surface to high altitudes, often above 10,000 feet, and concentrated into a relatively narrow band, typically about 400 to 600 kilometres (250 to 370 mi) wide, usually running ahead of a frontal boundary, or merging into it.[7][8]  With the right dynamics in place to provide lift, an atmospheric river can produce astonishing amounts of precipitation, especially if it stalls over an area for any length of time.

The floods followed a 20-year-long drought.[9] During November, prior to the flooding, Oregon had steady but heavier-than-normal rainfall, with heavier snow in the mountains.[10]: 76–83  Researchers believe the jet stream had slipped south, accompanied by freezing conditions reported at Oregon stations by December 25. Heavy rainfall began falling in California as the longwave trough moved south over the state, remaining there until the end of January 1862, causing precipitation to fall everywhere in the state for nearly 40 days. Eventually, the trough moved even further south, causing snow to fall in the Central Valley and surrounding mountain ranges (15 feet of snow in the Sierra Nevada).[11][12]


Current interest

 

A map of the flood area of the hypothetical ARkStorm event

The storm was not an unprecedented occurrence. Geologic evidence has been found that massive floods, of equal or greater magnitude to the 1861–1862 event, have occurred in California roughly every 100 to 200 years.[24] The United States Geological Survey has developed a hypothetical scenario, known as the "ARkStorm", that would occur should a similar event occur in modern-day California.[55][56][57] If such a storm were to occur today, it would probably cause over $725 billion to $1 trillion in damage.[1][58]  The likelihood of a massive flooding event is estimated to have been increased due to climate change.[59][60]

By metmike - April 3, 2023, 3:04 p.m.
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California snowpack climbs to all-time high, more winter weather on the way

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/3928319-california-snowpack-climbs-to-all-time-high-more-winter-weather-on-the-way/

Following a remarkable winter in which back-to-back “atmospheric rivers” pummeled the West Coast, California’s snowpack levels have climbed to an all-time high, according to state meteorologists. 

The state’s average snow-water equivalent — the amount of water contained in a snowpack — soared to 236 percent of seasonal norms on Thursday, surpassing a 1982-1983 record, the California Department of Water Resources reported.  

While water content in the Northern California snowpack was only 191 percent of seasonal norms, Central and Southern measurements respectively reached 234 percent and 297 percent, the agency noted.  

This feat was the result of an unusually wet winter, in which 17 atmospheric rivers barreled into California and 31 total swept across the West Coast at large, according to the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. 

“We have atmospheric rivers to thank for all this recent rain,” the institute, based at University of California San Diego, relayed on Twitter. 

Atmospheric rivers are “long, concentrated regions in the atmosphere that transport moist air from the tropics to higher latitudes” — producing heavy winds, rainfall and snow, per the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

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We should note the the record of 1982-83 features a SUPER El Nino with similar "atmospheric rivers".

Today, they want us to think that climate change is causing atmospheric rivers.......that have always existed.

7% more moisture, yes but the same weather. 

The variation in precip from drought to extreme is modulated by La Nina to El Nino as a result of completely normal cycles of Pacific Ocean temperatures. Always been that way, including in 1862 when they had over double this amount of precip along the West Coast in just over 40 days.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/94168/#94190


By metmike - April 4, 2023, 1:28 a.m.
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During the growing season, El Nino's and the global warming that they cause have a strong correlation to favorable  conditions/weather.

Here's the latest long range weather forecasts...........very low skill products.


30-day outlook - Temperature Probability30-day outlook - Precipitation Probability

+++++++++++++++++++

May-Jun-JUL

/products/predictions/long_range/lead02/off02_temp.gif

/products/predictions/long_range/lead02/off02_prcp.gif

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Jun-Jul-Aug

/products/predictions/long_range/lead03/off03_temp.gif

/products/predictions/long_range/lead03/off03_prcp.gif

++++++++++++++++++

Next Winter........banking on El Nino analogs, though I would disagree with their West Coast forecast which is too dry.

 /products/predictions/long_range/lead09/off09_temp.gif/products/predictions/long_range/lead09/off09_prcp.gif