World #wheat stocks below expectations, #soybeans above, #corn slightly above. #Ukraine + #Russia wheat exports +2.5 mmt, Ukraine corn exports +2 mmt. US corn/soy/wht exports unch, #China corn/soy imports unch, wht imports +2 mmt. #Argentina corn/soy crops down notably.
USDA leaves U.S. ending stocks for #corn & #soybeans unchanged from March but #wheat stocks come in higher.
Immediate report reaction: little surprised to see an identical US soy S&D to March after quarterly stocks, which trade sizably missed. I suppose that means March 1 stocks were of 0 surprise to USDA but somehow most analysts were overcooking them? Corn same but to lesser degree.
Even if same US corn/soy carryout number was printed, thought there might be at least some movement within. Argy crop reductions were basically as I expected. Interesting to see Brazil's old crop soy crop up, explains some of the heavier export numbers after last year's drought.
#Brazil #soybeans up, #corn unchanged, old crop soybeans up 1 mmt #Argentina corn down as expected, soybeans down more than expected
metmike: Been saying for months that the extreme drought in Argentina damaged the beans far more than everybody thought.
Jim, remember all of our conversations on this?
A truly unprecedented path for #Argentina's 2023 harvest of #soybeans, which has been decimated by severe drought. USDA's crop outlook has fallen 45% over the last four months. Outright yield is expected to be the lowest since 1989. Crop is the smallest since 2000.
