April 17, 2023 crop conditions/wheat
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Started by metmike - April 17, 2023, 3:08 p.m.

Previous threads:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/94455/

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/94322/

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The updated Crop condition report is out later this afternoon.


We have a potential freeze damage event in KS at the end of this week.

This comes from the NWS in Dodge City, KS which is in the southwest part of the state.


https://www.weather.gov/ddc/weatherstory


The coldest lows right now are around 25 degrees.

Will this impact the HRW crop?

Maybe a little.

Freeze Injury on Wheat


https://bookstore.ksre.ksu.edu/pubs/c646.pdf

Wheat Resistance to Freeze Injury

Lows days 3-7 below:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_min.shtml


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MIN_filled.gifhttps://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MIN_filled.gifhttps://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MIN_filled.gifhttps://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MIN_filled.gif

Comments
By metmike - April 17, 2023, 3:11 p.m.
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The Chicago wheat is the SRW contract. Soft Red Winter wheat. ZW symbol. It has much more volume than the other 2.

The Kansas City wheat is the HRW contract. Hard Red Winter wheat. KE symbol. Less than half the volume traded as ZW.

The Minneapolis is the HRS wheat. Hard Red Spring wheat. MWE symbol. Even more thinly traded than the HRW.

Both the HRW and HRS are hard red wheat. SRW is SOFT red wheat. 

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SRW below is everything East of the Mississippi River + Missouri.

HRW is everything West of the Mississippi  -Missouri. That's where the drought has been, see maps above. #1 producing state KS is the most important. 

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Crops_County/ww-pl.php

Winter Wheat: Planted Acreage by County


This is all HRS wheat below. MWE symbol. 

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Crops_County/sw-pl.php

Spring Wheat: Planted Acreage by County


By metmike - April 17, 2023, 3:39 p.m.
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 This could have been the main reason for wheat being so strong on Friday/Monday!

UPDATE 1-UN chief raises concerns with Russia about Ukraine grain deal

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-un-chief-raises-concerns-175940221.html

By metmike - April 17, 2023, 4:24 p.m.
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CROP PROGRESS

Winter wheat G/E unchanged......because its almost all SRW wheat.

P/VP increased 2% because its almost all HRW wheat.


https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/prog1523.txt

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Karen Braun@kannbwx·

Early U.S. #corn planting progress is ahead of average for the date but slower than analysts thought, though #soybeans were faster. Spring #wheat planting is behind average and slower than expected. Winter wheat held at 27% good/exc but poor/very poor is now 39%, up 2 pts.

Image

By metmike - April 19, 2023, 11:40 a.m.
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Total 2 week rains from the last 6z GEFS model.

Enough in KS to NOT be bullish, probably bearish for HRW.

1 inch everywhere and 2" in the eastern 1/3rd of KS.  

However, alot of places that will be planting see 3+ inches which might be bullish corn. The center of the heaviest rains in AR/MO is 5+ inches. Definitely going into wet period coming up that will slow planting in many places....but its still early.

By metmike - April 20, 2023, 11:44 a.m.
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Big rains coming t #1 wheat producer, KS next week

By metmike - April 21, 2023, 12:08 p.m.
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Biggest precip event for the S.Plains wheat in drought since at least last year coming up next week:


Weather map now.

In 24 hours and

In 48 hours.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#

Day 1 image not available

Day 2 image not available

Day 3 image not available

                +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Surface Weather maps for days 3-7 below:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr.shtml

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif

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The latest 7 day precip forecasts are below.

 

Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126


By metmike - April 21, 2023, 12:11 p.m.
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Karen Braun@kannbwx

If CBOT November #soybeans close at current levels (~$12.82 per bushel mid-session Friday), it will be the lowest price for new-crop beans on this date in three years. Haven't been able to say something like that in a long time.

Image



Karen Braun@kannbwx

If I have this right, the last time you could say new-crop beans are at least 3-year lows on this date was in June 2020 (they were in the $8.70 range). And at that time they were 13-year lows for the date.

By metmike - April 21, 2023, 12:23 p.m.
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HRW for May(KEK23) down 70c from the highs earlier this week because of the widespread rain coming to #1 wheat producer KS next week.


1. April 18, 2023

2. April 11, 2023

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx

Drought Monitor for conus

Drought Monitor for conus



By tjc - April 23, 2023, 1:41 p.m.
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MetMike

Significant reduction in Kansas rain forecasts?  (AgTalk posters say so)

By metmike - April 23, 2023, 4:16 p.m.
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thanks tic!

Been in detroit with dad and not watching wx as close but I agree with that. See weather thread for rains this week. 

update: my first statement was based on the NWS forecast.

however, not all the models agree. A couple actually have more rain in sw Kansas.

the biggest difference might be the gradient from good rains to nothing is extremely steep And lays somewhere in KS.
if its along the southern border, KS gets ripped off.

farther north and s/sw KS especially gets a 2 inch rain.

im not tuned in enough at the moment to try to call it but will try to watch closer.

By metmike - April 24, 2023, 1:26 a.m.
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This is the rain map for the  first week of the 0z GEFS coming out. 

The 2nd map was the 12z run, from 12 hours earlier.


Tiny bit wetter in W. KS. 1-1.5" of rain. Maybe 1 inch for C. KS.  Far N.KS. misses most of the rain still as does most of NE/SD/ND.




By metmike - April 24, 2023, 1:23 p.m.
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