Previous threads:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/94455/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/94322/
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The updated Crop condition report is out later this afternoon.
We have a potential freeze damage event in KS at the end of this week.
This comes from the NWS in Dodge City, KS which is in the southwest part of the state.
https://www.weather.gov/ddc/weatherstory
The coldest lows right now are around 25 degrees.
Will this impact the HRW crop?
Maybe a little.
https://bookstore.ksre.ksu.edu/pubs/c646.pdf
Lows days 3-7 below:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_min.shtml
The Chicago wheat is the SRW contract. Soft Red Winter wheat. ZW symbol. It has much more volume than the other 2.
The Kansas City wheat is the HRW contract. Hard Red Winter wheat. KE symbol. Less than half the volume traded as ZW.
The Minneapolis is the HRS wheat. Hard Red Spring wheat. MWE symbol. Even more thinly traded than the HRW.
Both the HRW and HRS are hard red wheat. SRW is SOFT red wheat.
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SRW below is everything East of the Mississippi River + Missouri.
HRW is everything West of the Mississippi -Missouri. That's where the drought has been, see maps above. #1 producing state KS is the most important.
https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Crops_County/ww-pl.php
This is all HRS wheat below. MWE symbol.
https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Crops_County/sw-pl.php
This could have been the main reason for wheat being so strong on Friday/Monday!
UPDATE 1-UN chief raises concerns with Russia about Ukraine grain deal
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-un-chief-raises-concerns-175940221.html
CROP PROGRESS
Winter wheat G/E unchanged......because its almost all SRW wheat.
P/VP increased 2% because its almost all HRW wheat.
https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/prog1523.txt
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Early U.S. #corn planting progress is ahead of average for the date but slower than analysts thought, though #soybeans were faster. Spring #wheat planting is behind average and slower than expected. Winter wheat held at 27% good/exc but poor/very poor is now 39%, up 2 pts.
Total 2 week rains from the last 6z GEFS model.
Enough in KS to NOT be bullish, probably bearish for HRW.
1 inch everywhere and 2" in the eastern 1/3rd of KS.
However, alot of places that will be planting see 3+ inches which might be bullish corn. The center of the heaviest rains in AR/MO is 5+ inches. Definitely going into wet period coming up that will slow planting in many places....but its still early.
Big rains coming t #1 wheat producer, KS next week
Biggest precip event for the S.Plains wheat in drought since at least last year coming up next week:
Weather map now.
In 24 hours and
In 48 hours.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#
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Surface Weather maps for days 3-7 below:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr.shtml
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The latest 7 day precip forecasts are below.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
If CBOT November #soybeans close at current levels (~$12.82 per bushel mid-session Friday), it will be the lowest price for new-crop beans on this date in three years. Haven't been able to say something like that in a long time.
If I have this right, the last time you could say new-crop beans are at least 3-year lows on this date was in June 2020 (they were in the $8.70 range). And at that time they were 13-year lows for the date.
HRW for May(KEK23) down 70c from the highs earlier this week because of the widespread rain coming to #1 wheat producer KS next week.
1. April 18, 2023
2. April 11, 2023
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx
MetMike
Significant reduction in Kansas rain forecasts? (AgTalk posters say so)
thanks tic!
Been in detroit with dad and not watching wx as close but I agree with that. See weather thread for rains this week.
update: my first statement was based on the NWS forecast.
however, not all the models agree. A couple actually have more rain in sw Kansas.
the biggest difference might be the gradient from good rains to nothing is extremely steep And lays somewhere in KS.
if its along the southern border, KS gets ripped off.
farther north and s/sw KS especially gets a 2 inch rain.
im not tuned in enough at the moment to try to call it but will try to watch closer.
This is the rain map for the first week of the 0z GEFS coming out.
The 2nd map was the 12z run, from 12 hours earlier.
Tiny bit wetter in W. KS. 1-1.5" of rain. Maybe 1 inch for C. KS. Far N.KS. misses most of the rain still as does most of NE/SD/ND.
The latest 7 day precip forecasts are below.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126