INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Jan. 16, 2018, 7:55 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Tuesday, January 16, 2018     

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. January Empire State Manufacturing Survey

 



 

 

                       Mfg Idx (expected 18.5; previous 18.0)

 



 

 

                       Employment Idx (previous 5.1)

 



 

 

                       New Orders Idx (previous 19.5)

 



 

 

                       Prices Received (previous 11.6)

 



 

 

Wednesday, January 17, 2018  

 



 

 

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx (previous 360.4)

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -1.6%)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 231.1)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -2.6%)

 



 

 

                       Refinance Idx (previous 1130.4)

 



 

 

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -0.5%)

 



 

 

7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +2.0%)

 



 

 

                       Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +3.8%)

 



 

 

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +0.1%)

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +3.4%)

 



 

 

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +3.4%)

 



 

 

9:15 AM ET. December Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization

 



 

 

                       Industrial Production, M/M% (expected +0.5%; previous +0.2%)

 



 

 

                       Capacity Utilization % (expected 77.3%; previous 77.1%)

 



 

 

                       Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.1)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. January NAHB Housing Market Index

 



 

 

                       Housing Mkt Idx (expected 72; previous 74)

 



 

 

2:00 PM ET. U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book

 



 

 

4:00 PM ET. November Treasury International Capital Data

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Loretta Mester lecture on monetary policy communications

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

 



 

 

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -11.2M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +4.3M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +4.7M)

 



 

 

                       Refinery Runs

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally into record territory. U.S. stock futures are poised to gap higher at the open, with Dow futures rising by more than 200 points and putting the blue-chip gauge on track for a fresh record near the 26,000 level. Ahead of the opening bell, investors are getting earnings from insurer UnitedHealth Group Inc. and banking heavyweight Citigroup Inc., as well as a fresh reading for the Empire State index. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the NASDAQ 100 index extends this winter's rally into record territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6573.45 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 6818.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6673.02. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6573.45.  



The March S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally into record high territory. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2716.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 2803.40. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2747.93. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2716.20.   



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were higher overnight as it extends the rebound off last Wednesday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 151-21 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 145-26 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 151-05. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 151-21. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 149-03. Second support is weekly support crossing at 145-26.  



March T-notes were higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.182 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 122.205 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 123.102. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.182. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 122.200. Second support is weekly support crossing at 122.145. 



ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"



ENERGY MARKETS: FebruaryNymex crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of this year's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.21 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.64 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 64.11. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.21. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 62.65. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.64.



February heating oil was slightly lower overnight after testing resistance marked by the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 208.51. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February resumes the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 222.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 202.75 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 208.51. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 222.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 202.75. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 196.41.      



February unleaded gas was slightly lower overnight while extending the trading range of the past four-trading sessions. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 176.06 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 192.35 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 186.02. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 192.35. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 176.06. Second support is December's low crossing at 166.19. 



February Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 3.331 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.857 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 3.225. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 3.331. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.857. Second support is December's low crossing at 2.562.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off December's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 87.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.07 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.07. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 92.84. First support is Monday's low crossing at 90.04. Second support is  weekly support crossing at 87.45.



The March Euro was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 125.34 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.19 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 123.43. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 125.34. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.19. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 119.18. 



The March British Pound was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 1.4057 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3532 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.3848. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 1.4057. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3532. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3418.  



The March Swiss Franc were higher overnight as it extends the rally off October's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the July-October-rally crossing at 1.0411 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0220 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the July-October-rally crossing at 1.0411. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the July-October-rally crossing at 1.0494. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0220. Second support is December's low crossing at 1.0103.     



The March Canadian Dollar was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 81.41 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.41 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted and could lead to additional weakness near-term. First resistance is January's high crossing at 81.00. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 81.41. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 79.41. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.81.



The March Japanese Yen was higher overnight and tested November's high crossing at 0.9073 as it extends this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March the aforementioned rally, the 62% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9141 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.8922 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 0.9073. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 0.9141. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.8922. Second support is December's low crossing at 0.8840.  



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: February gold was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, September's high crossing at 1365.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1300.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 1349.30. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1365.80. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1322.80. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1300.80.



March silver was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.803 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 17.686 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 17.325. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 17.686. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.803. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 16.140. 



March copper was lower overnight as it extends the decline off December's high. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 323.02 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the August-2013 high crossing at 334.05 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 332.20. Second resistance is the August-2013 high crossing at 334.05. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 323.02. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 314.37. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was higher overnight. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that a sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 3.54 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.32 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.54 3/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 3.60 1/2. First support is December's low crossing at 3.46 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.32. 



March wheat was lower overnight following last Friday's bearish USDA supply-demand report. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last Friday's decline, December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 4.37 are needed to confirm that an important low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.37. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 4.43. First support is December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2. Second support is psychological support crossing at 4.00.    



March Kansas City Wheat closed down 14-cents at 4.26 1/4. 



March Kansas City wheat posted a key reversal down and closed lower on Friday following today's bearish WASDE supply-demand report. Today's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.28 3/4 confirms that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's decline, December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2 is the next downside target. If March resumes the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 4.51 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.43. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 4.51 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.17 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at 4.10 1/2.   



March Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it consolidates some of last Friday's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, December's low crossing at 6.05 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 6.34 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 6.34 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high resistance crossing at 6.51. First support is December's low crossing at 6.05. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/2. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March soybeans was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off December's high.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 9.77 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off December's high, August's low crossing at 9.37 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.64 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.85 3/4. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 9.44 1/2. Second support is August's low crossing at 9.37 1/2.



March soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off last Friday's low. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 323.90 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the August-December-rally crossing at 305.70 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 323.90. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 331.20. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 310.30. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the August-December-rally crossing at 305.70.



March soybean oil was lower overnight as it extends this month's decline.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 32.52 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 33.94 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 33.94. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the November-December-decline crossing at 34.54. First support is December's low crossing at 32.52. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 32.44. 



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



February hogs closed up $0.60 at $71.58. 



February hogs posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's losses. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 70.45 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing at 76.91 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 73.68. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 76.91. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 70.45. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.86. 



February cattle closed up $0.30 at 117.38. 



February cattle closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned decline, the 75% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 115.05 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.94 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.94. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 122.74. First support is the 75% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 115.05. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the August-November-rally crossing at 112.35.

 

March Feeder cattle closed up $1.28 at $142.65. 



March Feeder cattle closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 138.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 147.76 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 147.76. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 154.05. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 140.12. Second support is December's low crossing at 138.30.   



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed lower on Friday as it extends this month's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If March extends this month's decline, the reaction low crossing at 11.95 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 12.08 are needed to confirms that a short-term low has been posted. 



March cocoa closed slightly higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 19.97 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 17.91 is the next downside target. 



March sugar closed unchanged on Friday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 13.64 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 14.87 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.



March cotton posted a downside reversal as it closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off October's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, weekly resistance crossing at 87.18 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.01 are needed to confirm a short-term top has been posted. 

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