INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - May 26, 2023, 7:46 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Friday, May 26, 2023   

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. April Personal Income and Outlays

 

                       Personal Income, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

 

                       Consumer Spending, M/M% (previous +0%)

 

                       PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)

 

                       PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +4.2%)

 

                       PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

 

                       PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +4.6%)

 

8:30 AM ET. April Advance Report on Durable Goods

 

                       Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (previous +3.2%)

 

                       Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +3.5%)

 

                       Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

 

                       Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous -0.4%)

 

                       Shipments: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous -0.4%)

 

8:30 AM ET.  April Advance Economic Indicators Report

 

10:00 AM ET. May University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - final

 

                       End-Mo Sentiment Idx (previous 63.5)

 

                       End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 60.5)

 

                       12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 4.6%)

 

                       5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 3.0%)

 

                       End-Mo Current Idx (previous 68.2)

 


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes  

 



 

The STOCK INDEXES: The June NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. Overnight trading set the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this year's rally, the 75% retracement level of the 2022-decline crossing at 14,245.67 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,522.35 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2022-decline crossing at 14,245.67. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2022-decline crossing at 14,801.49. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,522.35. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 13,226.39.  



The June S&P 500 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Friday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4120.61 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 4167.73 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 4227.25. Second resistance February's high crossing at 4244.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4167.73. Second support is the May 4th low crossing at 4062.25.



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher overnight as they consolidates some of the decline off April's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 124-11 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 129-04 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 127-14. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 129-04. First support is the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 124-11. Second support is March's low crossing at 122-22.  



June T-notes were slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 111.165 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 114.227 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 113.261. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 114.227. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 112.157. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 111.165.



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



ENERGIES:Julycrude oil was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Monday's low crossing at $70.67 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $74.53 would open the door for a possible test of the April 28th high crossing at 76.74. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $74.53. Second resistance is the April 28th high crossing at $76.74. First support is Monday's low crossing at $70.67. Second support is the May 15th low crossing at $69.39.    



July heating oil was slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the May 15th low crossing at 2.2739 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If July resumes the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.4547 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.4547. Second resistance is the April 24th high crossing at $2.5332. First support is the May 15th low crossing at 2.2739. Second support is May's low crossing at 2.1550.



July unleaded gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's loss. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at $2.6308 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at $2.4700 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at $2.6308. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the April-May decline crossing at $2.6979. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.5233. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.4562.      



July natural gas was slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.468 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 2.233 is the next downside target. If July renews the rally off May's low, the 25% retracement level of the December-May decline crossing at 2.877 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 2.816. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at 3.189. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.468. Second support is the May 5th low crossing at 2.233.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. Overnight trading and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the March 15th high crossing at $104.720 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.372 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the March 15th high crossing at $104.720. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $105.309.First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $103.229. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.372.



The June Euro was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 1.05914 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.09407 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1.08140. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.09102. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 1.05914. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 1.04252. 



The June British Pound was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices near-term. If June extends this month's decline, April's low crossing at 1.2293 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2501 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2501. Second resistance is the May 10th high crossing at 1.2692. First support is April's low crossing at 1.2293. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 1.2138.      



The June Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off May's high, April's low crossing at 1.09640 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.12054 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.12054. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1.13940. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 1.10794. Second support is April's low crossing at 1.09640. 



The June Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, the 75% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at $73.02 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $74.10 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $74.10. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $75.18. First support is April's low crossing at $73.23. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at $73.02.  



The June Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off the March's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 0.071337 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.073497 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.073497. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.075032. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 0.071550. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 0.071337. 

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



Junegold was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's loss. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off May's high, the 38% retracement level of the September-May rally crossing at $1923.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $2003.30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2003.30. Second resistance is the May 4th high crossing at $2085.40. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-May rally crossing at $1923.90. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-May rally crossing at $1873.90.  



July silver was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at $22.541 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $24.566 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $24.566. Second resistance is the May 5th high crossing at $26.435. First support is the 62% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at $22.541. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-April rally crossing at $21.705.  



July copper was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the the decline off April's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 3.4683 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.7626 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.7626. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.9183. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 3.4683. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2022-2023 rally crossing at 3.3261. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



July corn was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, the May 8th high crossing at $6.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $5.76 1/2 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.First resistance is the May 8th high crossing at $6.00. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.05 3/4. First support is the December-2021 low crossing at $5.48 3/4. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $5.27 1/2.



July wheat was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-days. Overnight trading  sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.63 3/4 would confirm that a low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off March's high the March-2021 low crossing at $5.71 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.28 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.63 3/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $5.94 1/4. Second support is the March-2021 low crossing at $5.71.



July Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Thursday's low crossing at $8.02 3/4 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.49 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.First resistance is the10-day moving average crossing at $8.49. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $9.18 3/4. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $8.02 3/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $7.36 1/4. 



July Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, May's low crossing at $7.69 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.46 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.26 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.46. First support is Monday's low crossing at $7.93. Second support is the May 3rd low crossing at $7.69.     



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



July soybeans were higher overnight as they extends this week's trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, the July 22nd 2022 low crossing at $12.99 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.77 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-covering gains. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $13.39 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $13.77 1/2. First support is the July 22nd 2022 low crossing at $12.99. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $12.94 3/4.

 

July soybean meal were higher overnight as they consolidate some of this week's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off March's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2023 rally crossing at $388.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $419.60 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $419.60. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $437.20. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $395.60. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2023 rally crossing at $388.80.



July soybean oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off May's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 50.16 would signal that a low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 52.77. If July resumes this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 40.19 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 50.16. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 52.77. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 46.42. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 40.19. 


Comments
By metmike - May 26, 2023, 9:37 a.m.
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Thanks much tallpine!

No changes to the weather.

Dry for most of the next 2 weeks in much of the Midwest with a brief round of heat in early June before the pattern change to cooler, with increasing rain chances in the 2nd week of June.

Better happen because much of the crop will be getting increasingly stressed.

Monday Night could be wild.

By metmike - May 26, 2023, 9:39 a.m.
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