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ARE WE ABOUT TO EXPERIENCE A NEW CARRINGTON EVENT? No. AR3664 is indeed a 'Carrington-class' sunspot, but the CMEs it hurled toward Earth over the past few days are not as potent as the monster CME of Sept. 1, 1859. NOAA says we might experience a severe geomagnetic storm when the CMEs arrive this weekend. If geomagnetic storms were hurricanes, 'severe' would be category 4. The Carrington Event was category 5 or greater. So this is no Carrington Event. Even so, category 4 is pretty intense--if it happens. Stay tuned for some great auroras! Aurora alerts: SMS Text
Thanks a ton, cutworm!!
Let's learn more about what's coming!
The rare opportunity to see the northern lights will present itself to stargazers this weekend across part of the United States, as long as cloudy weather doesn't interfere.
Particles from solar eruptions bombard Earth’s magnetic field and enter the atmosphere at regions called auroral ovals. These particles interact with gases in the atmosphere, creating auroras.
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https://abc7amarillo.com/news/local/northern-lights-spectacle-anticipated-may-10th-and-11th-2024
Space Weather Prediction Center
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-viewline-tonight-and-tomorrow-night-experimental
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Previous threads:
Catastrophic and Frightening Solar Storms: Miyake Events
Started by metmike - Dec. 16, 2023, 7:30 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/101294/
Aurora's week of 7-10-23
Started by metmike - July 10, 2023, 8:02 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/97043/
Northern Lights/solar cycle 25
Started by metmike - March 27, 2023, 1:42 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/94129/
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THE EFFECTS OF A NUCLEAR EMP
Started by 12345 - Feb. 13, 2023, 1:04 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/93075/
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Previous, related discussions from natural events(CMEs).
The last thread has the most info.
New Sunspot may Hurl Dangerous Solar Flare at Earth
Started by metmike - Oct. 3, 2022, 3:15 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/89419/\\
Geomagnetic storm coming
Started by metmike - Oct. 30, 2021, 2:30 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/76828/
GEOMAGNETIC STORM, SLIGHTLY DELAYED
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/76036/
The Carrington Event
Started by metmike - Aug. 28, 2021, 11 p.m.
The good news is that the moon will be a small crescent of only around 9% full and set at 11:15pm CDT.
so it won’t be washing the sky out much.
best viewing will be after that looking towards the north, away from city light with an unblocked view of the NORTHERN horizon.
Clear skies are kind of important (-:
These Northern Lights predictions have been known to bust by many hundreds of miles, so Indiana, being towards the southern edge might see a dazzling display, worth staying up late for…..or it could be nothing and you’ll have to see it with images taken on cameras from people living farther north.
Those images will likely begin popping up shortly after sunset, posted online immediately after they are taken thanks to todays wonderful technology.
In addition, when the storm is around an hour from hitting, around 1 million miles away, the space prediction center will be able to accurately measure how strong it is.
There is a potential, because of this being several CMEs combining for it to greatly exceed the predictions.
we should know by around 7pm? Or shortly after.
Here's the best site to get the latest updates:
There's a great deal of uncertainty about this intensity forecast until its closer(1 million miles away). 7pm CDT is MIDNIGHT UT and when they are thinking they can have more confidence in the magnitude. The timing is also uncertain.
UT time is:
4 hours ahead of EDT
5 hours ahead of CDT
7 hours ahead of PDT
So the strong peak is predicted to be between 06-09UT, at 8.33 is:
2am-5am EDT
1am-4am CDT
11p-2am PDT
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/severe-geomagnetic-storm-watch-issued-unusual-solar-event/
What's the G, S and R for???
Explanation for the G, S and R and numbers:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
G=Geomagnetic Storms
S=Solar Radiation Storms
R=Radio Blackouts
It's the G4 that puts us in a Severe Geomagnetic Storm!
This was updated 2 hours ago:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/g4-conditions-observed
From earlier:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/swpc-issues-its-first-g4-watch-2005
This satellite animation shows GOES-East visible imagery during the daytime and switches to IR imagery at night.
https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/wisc/
I've not tracked this metric before so am not positive but the last reading of 8.67 appears to be HIGHER than the 8.33 KP Index forecast and we have several hours of it increasing to go!!!!!
8-9 is a G4 Severe Storm.
9 is a G5 EXTREME Storm. There is no G6.
I was right. They just updated to a G5 storm Extreme 2 minutes after that last post.
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7:30pm update: They updated their graph a short while ago. 9 is the highest the KP Index goes:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/g5-conditions-observed
95% cloud cover here at9:30 pm
The one clear spot I don't see anything yet
Anyone see anything?
Going out now.
we are surrounded by trees so im going to a place with a view of the horizon.
tons of awesome images coming from Evansville people on line right now.
I’ll report back shortly
100 % cloud here 10:47
but received a picture from near Dayton
We needEd to use the phone camera to see it best.
barely visible to the naked eye. My son got the best pix which I’ll pass on shortly. It was best the first 15 minutes then faded to almost nothing the last 45 minutes.
It was me, my wife and 36 year old son.
As a bonus, when I was pointing out The Big Dipper my son and I saw a big shooting star across the same part of the sky.
Bummer that you have clouds, cutworm )-:
You deserve better for starting this thread for us!
My sons phone camera took much better pix and he was supposed to send them to me but went to bed.
We don't have events like this too often this far south, on the IN/KY border so I apologize for not being able to interpret perfectly. We are on the southern edge of being able to see the aurora's with the naked eye. This is my first time following the metric below too.
Below is a graph of the measured KP index the past 3 days, taken every 3 hours. We hit 9 for the first time yesterday at just before 6pm CDT and the index had its 3 hour reading at 7 pm, also measured at KP=9, which is a G5 EXTREME Geomagnetic storm.
KP values between 8-9 are a SEVERE Geomagnetic storm. The original forecast peak was 8.33 , so we OVER performed a bit and the peak was supposed to come AFTER MIDNIGHT, so it came around 6 hours? earlier than expected. The uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of Geomagnetic storms makes this NOT a surprise.
Even though we hit a KP=9 earlier and stronger than predicted, there has been a tremendous variation in the flux magnitude, at least with this particular solar storm because it's not just one flare, with one surge/peak that spikes then dies down fast that we see typically.
This is a solar storm from something like 6 solar flares/coronal mass ejections that happened in rapid succession from the same incredible large sunspot. So the constant solar wind with the electromagnetic energy interacting with our magnetosphere is flowing with impulses from the 5 flares embedded is aimed at earth for XX hours longer than the typical 1 eruption.
KP values between 8-9 are a SEVERE Geomagnetic Storm.
KP values between 7-8 are a STRONG Geomagnetic Storm.
You can see when the storm first hit below, which was 1pm CDT(18 UT on the graph). It was STRONG then. At 4pm, the next reading the storm was SEVERE. Then at 7pm it was EXTREME, at KP=9. At 10pm, it was still at KP=9, however, in between these instantaneous, 3 hour "snap shot" observations, there was a tremendous variation in the magnitude, ranging from the extreme, G5, down to just a G3 intensity.
When my wife, son and me went out into the northern part of the county, away from trees and lights to observe, it was around 9:35 pm. We observed the most vivid displays at that time. Even being able to see it outside the car window on the highway headed north! The 2nd KP=9 reading below was at 10pm CDT, when we were reporting that early on.
However, the aurora diminished steadily after that for us the next hour. Hardly noticeable by around 10:30pm.
If we were watching in Michigan or farther north, it would have still been visible but being on the southern edge to start with, meant that when the aurora field retreated north, we couldn't see much anymore.
We should also note that the KP index is still pulsing back up at times, as this extremely long, sustained solar storm is continuing with impulses embedded within it.
I believe that this sunspot had another massive flare late yesterday, which will take a couple of days to get here so this won't be over for awhile.
Update: there were 2 new solar flares and the last one this morning was a X5.8 flare, the strongest yet..........which means this will continue thru Sunday Night.
I'm actually learning this myself right now and just passing it along.
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This is the latest UPDATED CONSTANTLY graph of the magnitude of the solar particle stream for 3 different minimum sizes. The red is the smallest(and includes the blue and green larger sizes). Blue is next and includes the green. Largest is green.
We had a peak yesterday afternoon, that tapered off slowly, then a massive spike up in the LARGER particles NOT the smaller ones, that was followed by a steady increase overnight.
The current surge back to KP=9 is composed of more LARGER particles than yesterdays KP=9.
You can tell this because the spread between the Red vs the Blue and Green yesterday was wide........meaning it was almost all small particles. Today, the blue/green lines are closer to the Red line, meaning much more larger particles. The larger particles peaked early this morning and have been drifting lower.
At the moment, I don't know what the significance is of particle size but will report back with that information soon.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-proton-flux
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_particle_event
In solar physics, a solar particle event (SPE), also known as a solar energetic particle event or solar radiation storm,[a][1] is a solar phenomenon which occurs when particles emitted by the Sun, mostly protons, become accelerated either in the Sun's atmosphere during a solar flare or in interplanetary space by a coronal mass ejectionshock. Other nuclei such as helium and HZE ions may also be accelerated during the event. These particles can penetrate the Earth's magnetic field and cause partial ionization of the ionosphere. Energetic protons are a significant radiation hazard to spacecraft and astronauts.
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https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/sun-space-weather/aurora
Particles from solar eruptions bombard Earth’s magnetic field and enter the atmosphere at regions called auroral ovals. These particles interact with gases in the atmosphere, creating auroras.
Actually, there 2 more flares in the last 12 hours!!!
It takes between 24 to 48 hours after the CME's(Coronal Mass Ejections) occur for them to reach our atmosphere, so cutworm, you may get still get a chance to see the show the next 2 nights at least.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/x-class-flares-continue-occur
https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/10109/
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06/11/2003
cutworm,
The best viewing may be yet to come(or worst if it gets much stronger and does damage).
Written byTeo Blašković
The strongest thus far was today’s X5.8, followed by X4.5 on May 6, and X3.9 on May 10.
Looks like Sunday Night will be having the most powerful aurora of all?
More shortly.
Update: I corrected this Saturday evening/below with a tremendous amount of uncertainty coming from the forecasting experts and us relying entirely on their products.
We are still being told, here on Sunday morning:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/severe-extreme-geomagnetic-storming-possible-again-later-today
The Aurora intensity has temporarily backed off:
However, the new even STRONGER CMEs traveling in the solar wind right now and aimed at earth will cause a new strong surge on Sunday!
Stay tuned!
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metmike: KEY FACTOR:
The sun remains stationary with respect to the objects in our solar system. So these CME's coming from the same sunspot on the sun are gushing out into the same place in space, with narrow, concentrated streams of high charged particles.
But the earth revolves around the sun, taking just over 365 days to complete 1 revolution. Because of this, the earth is only temporarily crossing into and out of the path of these CME's from the same monster sunspot.
Will we still be directly in the path thru Sunday Night?
However, next week, as this sunspot ejects additional CME's, earth will have revolved to THE OTHER SIDE of the narrow path we are in right now and no longer be bombarded directly.
I tried to make a graphic depicting this below:
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Here's an article that discusses how later CME's can catch up to earlier ones.
One After Another: The Effect of Repeated Coronal Mass Ejections
https://aasnova.org/2022/11/07/one-after-another-the-effect-of-repeated-coronal-mass-ejections/
Just now reading all this. Thanks for all the research. I'm learning a lot. I was planting all day today .
Big update:
I noticed that the aurora forecast for this evening, after retreating into Central Canada 4+ hours ago, rapidly expanded south again......then back north just as quickly.
This product below is a model run/updated every 5 minutes based on actual observations around 1 million miles outside of our atmosphere from satellite data. It predicts the aurora in 28 minutes from the model run time.
4 hours ago:
Then we saw a huge expansion south!. 30 minutes ago below(just before this, the green was down to C. Indiana!
Most recent. Receded back to Canada.
I am really shocked at the enormous changes in the southern periphery of the aurora in just minutes!!
1. The previous CMEs have really accelerated the solar wind speed. Yesterday, it was around 700 km/sec which is pretty fast but now it's 934 km/sec.
2. So the CME from this morning will be getting here Faster than the previous ones.
3. Regardless, if the CME was traveling at 934 km/sec thats almost 3.4 million km/hour. With the sun being 150 million km away, that would be 44 hours to get here. So the CME from this morning must be traveling faster than the current solar wind to get here on Sunday.
4. The model that forecasts longer range, through Sunday Night has the aurora WEAKENING Sunday Night compared to tonight. I'm at a loss to explain that other than maybe the earths continued orbit around the sun is taking us OUT OF the part of the solar wind with the CME's from this one incredibly huge sunspot, that are temporarily blasting us right now.
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Here's the forecast for:
1. Tonight
2. Tomorrow Night.
Why has the aurora forecast receded so much tomorrow night with the strongest CME from the 5.8X flare on the way? Maybe earth will be leaving the "direct hit" zone of the CME's?
Space Weather Prediction Center
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-viewline-tonight-and-tomorrow-night-experimental
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There is LOW activity currently with G (0) conditions.
However, the Space Weather Prediction Center is saying that conditions will become severe to extreme again later today.
Sunday Morning update below:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/severe-extreme-geomagnetic-storming-possible-again-later-today
These are NOT my forecasts. I'm just passing them along from the experts and learning as much as possible, while passing that along too.
The next time that we have an event of any intensity in this realm, we will all understand the science and language MUCH better!
Regardless of how many more CME's come from this mega massive sunspot, the earth will soon be revolving OUT OF the path that makes them direct hits to our atmosphere.
Speaking of that sunspot. I have bad eyesight but my wife, son and daughter in law were all able to see this enormous sunspot with the naked eye, using only the solar eclipse glasses from last months total solar eclipse.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVVuqoTjkmY
https://earthsky.org/sun/giant-sunspot-region-ar3664-visible-in-eclipse-glasses/
The aurora forecast for 28 minutes out, based on measuring the actual solar wind energy coming in has been rapidly dropping south the last hour+ from Central Canada earlier this afternoon.
This suggests a potential return to good viewing again to many places in the US tonight.
How far south will this go by the time the sun sets in 3 hours?
or maybe not?
We have a bit more moon to contend with at around 25% which may wash out the sky a bit on the western side.
Here's the best site to get the latest updates:
Been tracking it closely all weekend. The KP Index (updated every 3 hours) is jumping higher again, but still not severe yet. Next update in around an hour.
However, the aurora shield forecast, just over 2 hours ago suddenly receded 800 miles north to Central Canada in 5 minutes!!! This is extraordinarily puzzling to me but its also the first time for me to follow these metrics, so I'm not understanding something here. Since then, it's been slowly easing south again but still north us the US/Canadian border.
I would guess strongly that the Aurora tonight will be a no show for most of the US but the 10pm KP index will help to be more definitive.
If it doesn't spike much higher, I don't see how this assumption can change.
The KP index dropped a bit and IS NOT severe or extreme as was predicted yesterday and earlier today.
However, the aurora coverage dropped MUCH farther south again, into the northern tier of US states.
I give up trying to interpret this for use as a predictor for what the rest of the night might hold, other than to think the Severe/Extreme storming is no longer a major threat and earth will be moving away from the CME zone very soon.
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OK, I found this most recent update:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/g3-geomagnetic-storm-warning-effect-until-06-utc-may-13
This past weekend, especially Sunday helped provide additional evidence for the uncertainty of predicting space weather.
The G4/G5 storm predicted on Sunday never happened with only a low G3 peak.
The Space Weather Prediction Center uses a model to forecast conditions for around 30 minutes later(depending on the speed of the solar wind) based on actual measurements. It's updated every 5 minutes and can have EXTREME changes based on how the real observations dialed into the model compared to what the previous projected conditions were expected to be.
Yesterday evening, when projected conditions were for a G4-G5 spike/surge higher and the instruments measured only G2-G3 the aurora forecast suddenly shifted north by almost 1,000 miles IN JUST 5 MINUTES!!!! Wow! That was an eye opener but likely only happens to that extreme when a severe/extreme storm is predicted and the forecast busts.
The solar wind increased from ~715 km/second on Friday to ~950 km/sec from the CME's accelerating the speed and is back down to 622 km/second right now.
Any additional CME's from this massive sunspot will follow the same path IN SPACE.........but the earth rotating around the sun has taken us OUT OF THAT DIRECT PATH.
These were the last readings:
We should note that the Aurora forecast is for 36 minutes later, as opposed to the same forecast model over the weekend that corresponded to as low as 27 minutes later. This is from the solar wind speed slowing down And the impact taking longer to hit.
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All times are in UT(Universal Time) which is 5 hours ahead of CDT.