Soybeans gapped higher last night from an extremely oversold, extremely overdone, long lasting move lower. Funds re near record short and have been piling on for many weeks.
This looks like a major low is in place and the recent selling Us run out of steam. Not sure what the bullish news is causing this.
How funds behave early, after the day session trades will be important.
NOT filling the gap will be extremely bullish but we’ll have some fresh buying interest going forward because of this gap higher chart signature EVEN if the gap gets filled.
more later.
The early day session rally that was adding to double digit gains overnight (after the gap higher Mon Evening) ran out of steam after 30 minutes and we dropped back below the open but uncovered enough buying interest at the top of the gap to keep the gap open.
However, being back down close to last night's open right now is not very promising.
Wheat has been the huge surprise.
It was actually LOWER over night when beans and corn were strong.
March wheat is +21c and near the highs right now.
What gives there? KE wheat is up not quite as much. I don't think it's weather because soil moisture is not bad in the Plains, unless the unusually warm weather coming up, bringing Winter wheat out of dormancy very early will make it more vulnerable for a freeze in early Spring??? But that's a stretch.
March has volume of 34K and May is 57K, so May is much more active now.
The failure of the gap higher to hold yesterday forebode additional weakness for the beans, now -10c but holding the previous lows.
Corn is following.
Wheat still holding most of the 20c+ gains yesterday. I still didn't see any news to explain any of this action.
Corn and soybeans also end the day in the green.
https://www.agriculture.com/grains-starting-week-in-the-green-or-tuesday-february-20-2024-8585820
Previous thread(some great graphs)
Exports/grains Feb 13, 2024
17 responses |
Started by metmike - Feb. 13, 2024, 9:56 p.m. https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/102259/
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Picking up where that one left off:
U.S. export inspections were in line with expectations last week. 55% of the inspected #soybeans were destined for #China along with one #wheat cargo but no #corn. #Sorghum inspections hit a two-month high (all China).
Would say #soybeans had another good week (relative to expectations). Not sounding the alarm on #corn yet but we're getting closer. Time to pump these numbers up. No huge revisions to prior numbers this week, either.
From Tuesday AM: USDA confirms the sale of 155,000 tonnes of U.S. #corn for delivery to Japan in 2024/25 and the sale of 228,000 tonnes of U.S. #soymeal for delivery to the Philippines in 2023/24. FYI Japan already had 118kt U.S. corn on the books for 24/25, less than year ago.
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The Biden admin is expected to approve year-round sales of E15 gasoline (blended with 15% #ethanol), but with a start date in 2025. The U.S. govt restricts sales of E15 gas in the summer due to smog concerns.
Amid its ongoing crop tour, Agroconsult has reduced 2023/24 production for #Brazil's #soybeans to 152.2 million tonnes from 153.8 mmt previously due to adverse weather in key states.
1h
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Considering the past 15 years or so, the dynamic between new-crop CBOT #soybeans and #corn is most similar to 2014 at this point. A bean/corn ratio around 2.5 is above the long-term average and closer to favoring soybeans, though the advantage isn't strong like in 2021.
Some may disagree, but it's never too early to start thinking about next year. CBOT Nov25 #soybeans to Dec25 #corn ratio is sitting at an above-average 2.38 right now. The closest recent years through this point are 2015, 2018, 2019 & 2023 (but trading in 2014, 2017, 2018, 2022).
there are a bunch of sites on the internet to discuss grain. Seems many have tons of guys in the last month predicting the low temp mark has been reached only look up and find new lows time after time. Someone quoted once, paraphrase, the market will go to the level that inflicts the most pain to the most traders. Well today, May beans are down another 19.
looking at the continuous front month chart looks to me like next support is 10.80 ish. JMHO
My edge on predicting price on anything is using weather.
Outside of that, I make no predictions…..instead just observations of how the price is acting….. which is constantly and immediately adjusted to the latest price behavior with as much objective information as possible to go with that.
Beans have acted like crap this week after the gap higher open.
Its too late for South America wx to help the bulls, unless we would have extreme rains and the pattern does NOT show that.
Cutworm,
The march and may contracts both had spike lows of 11.50 at the end of June 2023.
must have been after a bearish USDA report.
Beans grinding lower. March low so far is 11.51, -10c. Just above that now.
Volume is now greater for the May contract 106,000 vs the March beans with 77,000
Export sales for U.S. #soybeans have been lousy for nearly 2 months now, last week was no exception. #Corn sales were near low end of guesses, but Japan bought 186kt new-crop, more than expected. Canada last week cancelled 16% of total 23/24 U.S. #soyoil sales.
Reminder that net negative export sales to unknown destinations are *not* necessarily cancellations. Usually, most of those are unknown sales being assigned out. Can't totally rule out cxcls, though. Net sales to unknown should eventually converge near 0 at the end of the MY.
Feb. 23: CBOT front-month #corn futures slip below $4/bu for the first time since Nov. 4, 2020. It's happened relatively fast, too. Here's the last time front-month was at each level: $5 - Oct. 20, 2023 $6 - July 14, 2023 (late June for non-delivery period) $7 - Oct. 31, 2022
