https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Crops_County/ot-pr.php

When Is It Too Late To Plant Oats, Wheat or Barley?

Management Considerations for Late-Spring Planted Small Grains in 2023

Table 1 – Optimum seeding dates and last recommended seeding dates for small grains in Minnesota

Source: University of Minnesota’s Late Planting Spring Small Grains

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Table 3 below indicates that we still have plenty of time, though the OPTIMAL planting date window may pass by in many locations above. 

Table 3 – Percent of the oat crop planted by April 23 and 24, 2023 and comparisons for seven states.

Source: UDSA-NASS State Crop Progress Condition Reports

Crop Calendars for United States

https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/crop_calendar/us.aspx

The time frames are very dependent on the location. Planting oats in Texas, for instance is almost completed by the time MN is just getting started!

Planting Considerations for Oats in South Dakota

https://extension.sdstate.edu/planting-considerations-oats-south-dakota

Planting Time

Oats are a cool-season crop that responds well in cooler climates. Planting is recommended early in the spring, or as soon as the ground can be worked. Minimum germination temperature is about 35°F, however, slightly higher soil temperature (>40°F) can speed up the germination and emergence. Planting early provides a cooler climate for optimal tiller growth and panicle production. Early planting also helps to avoid the risk of high temperatures during seed fill that can lead to smaller seed size, reduced yield and test weight. Optimum seeding time for oats in South Dakota can range from late March (southern regions) to late April (northern regions).

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Oklahoma:

Still time to get in spring-planting oats

Friday, March 5, 2021

https://news.okstate.edu/articles/agriculture/2021/stotts_oat-planting.html

“The general, rule-of-thumb, cutoff date is about March 10,” said Alex Rocateli, Oklahoma                     State University Extension forage systems specialist. “Science tells us that oats                     will germinate after the soil temperatures reach 40 to 43 degrees for a couple of                     days. Currently, moisture is good and the Oklahoma Mesonet shows our soils have reached this minimum threshold.”                                    

Spring-planted oats can be a great option for producers in central Oklahoma who do                     not have sufficient wheat, annual ryegrass or fescue pastures, he said.

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Corn seed likes temperatures above 50 degrees for germination. Oats is around 40 deg. f.

This map is updated daily(with previous days data). 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/agclimate/soilt.php

Soil Temperature Maps by Depth

https://www.weather.gov/ncrfc/LMI_SoilTemperatureDepthMaps

http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/industry/grass/html/soiltemp.html

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https://mrcc.purdue.edu/clim/Soil-T

AVERAGE DATE TO 40 DEGREES BELOW:

AVERAGE DATE TO 50 DEGREES BELOW:

TJC,

I noted that here, just after noon the May Oats have traded a total of 558 contracts!!!

Don't know of anything else that thinly traded!

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/oat

The market is definitely NOT concerned about a planting delay or yield impact. Just the opposite.

The moisture looks to be construed as BENEFICIAL!

Soilmoisture anomaly:

These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#                            

                       ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Updated daily below:

https://mrcc.purdue.edu/cliwatch/watch.htm#curMonths

DROUGHT MONITOR

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

Last week as of March 12, 2024

January 30, 2024 below

DECEMBER 12, 2023 below

NOVEMBER 14, 2023

October 17, 2023      

August, 2023, BELOW

DROUGHT MONITOR NOVEMBER 1, 2022

The severe drought in the Southwest to N. Plains was wiped out this year from the El Nino. 

         Drought monitor previous years: You can see the natural La Niña, (cold water-in the tropical Pacific)causing the drought! Starting in 2020, then worsening for 2+ years!

Bearish forecast from the 2 week, total  precip standpoint:

06z GEFS total precip 384 hours:

This is why:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#

DROUGHT MONITOR

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

Last week as of March 12, 2024

After over 5 hours of trading, May Oats has a total volume of 29 contracts.

 Compare that to May Soybeans with almost 29,000 contracts traded!

So front month beans have had 1,000 times more volume than front month oats tonight!

thanks mike

MetMike

WOW--what a response!  Much more detail than I deserve.

  Oat growers can confirm, but I am of the impression that 'too much' moisture and delayed planting of oats results in decreased yields and/or crop switching.  Thus, the ever bottom picker, TJC, might be just 'too' early in wanting to get long.  (I am forecasting a daily/weekly low today, friday or monday)

  IF your weather observations hold true and just another couple weeks of MOISTURE holds true, the optimal planting timeframe may be exceeded?

  I have 3.49 in mind with 8-10 risk

  Options exist, but almost zero volume.  Due to low volume, future execution can be frustrating--watch extremes.

  Trade well

YW!

tjc, 

I get busy doing other stuff, especially during chess season and am not 100% tuned into the markets and weather, especially in March when its too late in the heating season for NG and too late for crops in SA and too early for crops in the US.........but I can count on you or Larry or cutworm to tune me in!

Thank YOU!

  LONG 354

Thanks tjc,

This was the last 6z GEFS total snow for the next 2 weeks.

Since MWE is up the least of the wheats, its hard to make a case for this to be from Spring Wheat planting delays.

However, this amount of snow in the Upper Midwest at this time of year, should be seen as POTENTIALLY bullish for oats regardless of what the market has been thinking this week.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

However, there will be a pattern change in week 2 that warms things up a great deal but with that warm up, may come some rains.

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Latest precip, including snow here:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83848

Oats gapped higher after closing near its highs on Friday.

will see what the day session has in store.

Oats gapped higher after closing near its highs on Friday.

will see what the day session has in store.

oats has been locked into a pretty narrow price trading range since December.

can we break out to the upside?

Droight concerns probably have a much better chance to cause that than planting delay concerns in a drought do.

Missing precip this time May actually be the reason for the gap higher NOT because of snow and cold that the market knew about and was not more than expected.

  Oats are just too cheap

  "THREE DAY" rule says buy/sell 3 days after low/high.

See if oats give you a buy

Buy 359

Thanks, tjc!

Here's your comments. 

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/102755/

My opinion is that the new weather forecasts are turning less and less bullish for planting oats"…relatively bearish with time.

Oats still have a little gap higher left from the Sunday night  open that keeps  things technically bullish.

once filled, that becomes a gap and crap formation which is a technically bearish  signature.

I’m not predicting anything with high confidence, just telling you that the bullish planting delay weather is getting less bullish.

May oats had a whopping 27 total contracts traded overnight.

Total snows for the next 2 weeks from the last 0z European model, some from this current event winding down.

The market has totally known about this snow for a week. Now, we look at the pattern in mid-April that will be important to getting planted rapidly, since oats will still have time then.

This is the last upper level wind map on that model for April 10th.

Much milder, zonal flow from the Pacific. 

The 850mb temps below, show some lingering but waning cold still trapped in the Upper Midwest in 2 weeks but we know with absolute certainty that it will continue to erode and become milder and milder.

Why is that certain?

Look at the jet stream.

How will a flow regime like that acquire cold air from a source region thousands of miles north of this map? 

Answer: It can't

This guarantees the the 2nd half of April WILL BE milder. 

Surface winds and snow cover could keep it from really warming up but it WILL BE milder and probably allow oats to start catching up with planting.

MetMike

Thank you for detailed weather information.  I will monitor my trade!

YW, tjc!

We got the gap and crap formation on Tuesday morning from Sunday Night's gap getting filled. This is usually only significant after a long move up or down as an indicator of the buying(selling) having one last gasp which represents an exhaustion because there's no follow thru. We've been trading sideways for months so its not a big deal here.

It can also mean that the factor which caused the extreme change in mentality while the market was closed, and the gap to a price completely outside the previous range/trading bar.....has subsided, which means the price can return to the previous trading range again.

We're back down inside Friday's range.

Here's the 850 temp map from the European model that I must have forgotten this morning. Now from the 12z run 12 hours later and MILDER yet.

It looks to me like the pattern, as we approach mid April is going to morph towards warm and dry.

The extended guidance from the NWS is still pretty wet but I think it will get drier and drier.........warmer and warmer during the next week+

out 356

thanks, tjc!

As expected from previous statements, the  just updated extended NWS forecast warmed:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

Warmer and warmer as expected......and wet too:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

As expected, temps have continued to warm way up in the extended forecast:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/

These are freeze frames from April 1, 2024.

Oats are on the verge of a downside breakout!

1. 1 month

2. 1 year

3. 45 years

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/oat

++++

Great planting weather ahead:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

  Oats seem to be on a course to test the April 2023 low of 300.  If taken out, the 250 area of March 2020 is in play.  The low in the last ten years is at the 170 level in Sept 2016.

  Cycles would suggest the 7 year cycle bottomed in 2023.

  Oats is in its 21st week from last low, now suggesting a weekly low next week to coinicide with a daily low say next Wednesday to Friday.  Watch 320 Dec.

Thanks, tjc!