Analysts expect USDA to cut U.S. #corn ending stocks on Thursday but raise them for #wheat. #Soybeans are seen close to last month's figure. March 1 stock surveys will factor in, but the March planting report corresponds to 2024/25 - those tables will first be published in May.
Analysts think USDA's WASDE report on Thursday could show slight upside to #Argentina's #corn & #soybeans, though #Brazil's crops could shrink a bit. USDA's Brazil soy estimate is among the industry's highest, and the market has been disappointed with USDA's reluctance to cut.
For the last 7 years, the average April trade guess for #Brazil's #soybean crop was too low vs USDA's final printed figure, and that includes both good and weak harvests. On the other hand, analysts' April #corn estimate has been too high vs final only in crop problem years.
6h
Important to keep on mind on Thursday when USDA and Conab update production estimates for #Brazil's #corn & #soybeans. The agencies hold differences in prior years too, though the 2023/24 disparities, if they stand, would be the largest of all.
This table from Reuters shows daily sale history for the past two months. Seven daily sales of U.S. #soybeans so far in 2024: Unknown (4), Mexico (2), China (1).
#Ukraine may ship up to 1 million tonnes of #corn to traditional buyer #China between April and May 2024. Here's what LSEG data shows for April-May for recent years: 2023: 593kt 2022: n/a 2021: 965kt 2020: 1.675 mmt 2019: 1.216 mmt
Reuters reporting that USA and #Japan plan to announce a joint partnership to accelerate nuclear fusion, which could provide carbon-free electricity. The two countries will also agree to support sustainable aviation fuel.
The exchange is calling the damage done to #Argentina's #corn via disease spread by leafhoppers as "unprecedented."
#Argentina's Rosario grains exchange cuts (slashes?) 2023/24 #corn output to 50.5 mmt from 57 mmt forecast previously due to disease. USDA a month ago pegged Argy's corn crop at 56 mmt, but that is subject to change in Thursday's WASDE.
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Spec sentiment in CBOT #soymeal now versus six months ago is night and day. Managed money net short (43k fut & opt) on April 2 is the most bearish for the time of year, and the mid-Nov 2023 net long of 138k f&o was the most bullish for the time of year.
Money managers were slight net sellers of CBOT #corn futures & options in the week ended April 2 - which incl. USDA's acres/stocks report. Main feature was much lighter 2024 US corn plantings than analysts expected. Fund net short (259,556 contracts) remains historically large.
Wheat
1. 45+ years
2. 5 years
3. 1 year
4. 1 month
Soybeans
1. 45+ years
2. 5 years
3. 1 year
4. 1 month
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U.S. #corn sales last week were a marketing year low, well below all expectations, and lowest for the week since 2013. Mexico was the top buyer of old-crop #soybeans, but no new-crop was sold. Last week's #wheat shipments were a MY high at 627kt.
Bearish for beans!
U.S. ending stock estimates for #corn, #soybeans and #wheat all come in higher than the trade guess. Corn & wheat exports were unch from March but soybean exports were cut 20 mbu to 1.7 bbu.
USDA leaves #Brazil's crops unchanged from last month but cuts #Argentina #corn by 1 mmt. No changes for Argy #soybeans.
Due to disease, USDA's Buenos Aires attache slashes #Argentina's 2023-24 #corn crop to 51 mmt from 57 mmt projected in January. USDA officially sits at 55 mmt. The attache projects 2024-25 corn production at 48 mmt as farmers are expected to switch toward #soybeans.
#Argentina's #corn harvest could be slashed even further following insect-spread disease, according to the Rosario grains exchange. Last week the exchange dropped the crop estimate to 50.5 mmt from 57 mmt previously, and more cuts are likely.
It's that time of year again! Sorry for missing it earlier in the week when it came out! Mike
Here's the complete report:
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Planting progress for most major U.S. spring crops is still in the single digits but on par with average levels. Winter #wheat conditions slipped last week as expected. By the end of April, #corn is usually ~27-30% planted and #soybeans around 13%.
Here's the complete report:
Great link to graphically track progress and conditions below. Note how well the Winter Wheat crop is doing compared to the previous 2 years!! Close to 2020/2021.
https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/2024/US_2024.pdf
