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MarketForum’s Post of the Week:

  By wglassfo - July 11, 2018, 6:49 p.m.            

            No doubt in my mind

We are watching price destruction

I also think a lot of high price rented land may come back on the market

Rent and land prices always seem to reflect COP

I read where it was thought 82% of all land in Iowa was paid for

Unless we have a repeat of 20% int rates I doubt we see massive farmer Bk as in the 80's

However, make no mistake, grain and livestock plus dairy prices are set to take a further tumble

I doubt we could lose enough potential yield in the growing season left to bring prices back up 2.00 and 70 cents

This crop will sell for less than any of the past 5 yrs and maybe 10 yrs

It happens

Remember

Jimmy Carter

When gov't or presidents mess with our products the farmer is always sure to pay the price

I fear gov't much more than dry/wet weather

Weather usually last for 1 yr unless you farm in a high risk area

Gov't can mess with  market price or some dang thing for a much longer time frame

But:

We will see most farmers tighten the belt on spending which in turn will affect a large portion of the economy

As we see new car sales begin to fall off, with new buyers unable to obtain financing, new farm machinery sales taper off, kitchen appliances fall off as the tarrifs start to increase price, perhaps the demand for steel will taper off a bit

Will beer in a glass bottle make a come back

Doubt it for beer

June 22, 2018

Heat fill for corn-metmike and silverspiker

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/5754/

metmike:

It doesn't matter how much rain falls.  After pollination, when kernels fill if it stays hot for weeks, especially very warm/muggy nights, corn yields will get hurt badly. This is an absolute law of agronomy.

The difference between widespread, long lived very cool temps for filling and widespread long duration heat during filling is as much as 25 bushels/acre for individual locations. Ask Kansas, who has dealt with heat fill for decades on his farms. 

The corn plant matures/advances based on an accumulation of growing degree days. The more heat, the faster it advances. One might think this is good for the corn to be ready for harvest/mature before the risk of an early freeze. Just the opposite. 

Corn diverts alot of its photsynthetic energy/sugars that it made during the day towards filling kernels. It can only make so much each day, regardless of the temperature. The more days that it has to fill the kernels, the plumper they get. If you have long lived heat, the plant matures very fast, greatly lessening the number of days that the plant has to fill kernels and the kernels will be small..........even if there is bountiful rains and soil moisture. 

Even if the plant looks big and green and has a high rating based on the outside appearance...........if it stays hot after pollination, with lots of rain, the kernels will be small............no exceptions.......you can't defy this absolute law of nature.

This is what happened in 2010 and it shocked the market at harvest time.

In addition. If it stays very warm and humid at night, the corn plant must respire more and uses up some of the energy/sugars it made from photosynthesis during the day to to this.....which would have otherwise gone to filling kernels.............a double whammy!!

Hot and wet in June is great for corn because its in the vegetative state. The faster and bigger it grows, with more leaf area and more potential to collect sunshine and make sugars down the road.

Intense heat with good moisture in July, can cause pollination issues if it comes at the wrong time but the corn plant can still maintain most of its yield potential if its not intense heat at the wrong time.

Once pollination is over and kernels start filling, if soil moisture is good, long lived heat is one of the worst things that can happen.

In fact, a bit dry with well below average temperatures from late July thru August WILL produce higher yields than hot and wet. 

silverspiker:

I actually had actual tears in my eyes after reading this... my father graduated from Iowa State Univ. in 1962 with a 

degree in Agronomy (he passed 3 years ago in 2015 after farming 40 years)... I used to call him everyday, no matter 

what,  about:  food recipes, crossword puzzle answers , my trades of the day on the N.Y. COMEX and other 

exchanges, etc. and especially for cash crop growing conditions and agronomy questions about the "what ifs'" of 

farming...

... thank you for my "daily" Agronomy lesson Mike...that was pretty cool in my book...  

Evan

metmike:

Hey, cut that out. There is no crying allowed on the trading forum! Go to the NTR forum if you're going to be like that  

How often can a guy make another guy cry with an agronomy lesson????

And I thought atmospheric science, with the laws which define the behavior of the atmosphere was powerful!!!

silverspiker:

.. you're still the "coolest dude" in all of the worst " rings of fire heat domes " that I know !!!...

  ... Keep On Truckin'

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

 

What causes the sky to be blue-NTR Forum

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/4458/

 

   By GunterK - June 7, 2018, 12:57 p.m.                              

 

"visiting the NTR (for some people the NeverTRump) section of the forum, I came across this fascinating article about light scattering, and the following equation...

{\displaystyle I=I_{0}{\frac {1+\cos ^{2}\theta }{2R^{2}}}\left({\frac {2\pi }{\lambda }}\right)^{4}\left({\frac {n^{2}-1}{n^{2}+2}}\right)^{2}\left({\frac {d}{2}}\right)^{6}}[6]

and I started wondering.....

if one took the items from a recent post about a checklist for Trump being a dictator, and gave each of the items on that list a rating, and substituted these numbers into the above equation, could one then calculate if we are heading towards a dictatorship, or if America is being made great again.

ooops.... smoke is coming out of my calculator"

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Previous post of the week:

Natural Gas

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/3645/#3677

By WxFollower - May 17, 2018, 8:59 p.m.
 

 Based on my analysis, today did come in a bit tighter than much of both 2014 and 2015 although it came in way looser than much of 2016 and a bit looser than much of 2017 fwiw. It came in rather similar to much of 2013. So, this didn't beat the 5 year average by 20 bcf on a DD adjusted basis, which will be needed through 11/1 to get back to the 5 year average by the end of injection season. At best it beat it by about 10 bcf.

 Today's report was based on TDD (HDD + CDD) of only 45, which is tied with 3 other weeks for 2nd lowest since 2003.

Lowest TDD of EIA weeks since 2003/EIA

5/18/12: 43 TDD/+77 bcf
5/11/18: 45 TDD/+106 bcf
10/7/16: 45 TDD/+79 bcf
10/3/14: 45 TDD/+105 bcf
10/14/11: 45 TDD/+103 bcf
10/4/13: 46 TDD/+90 bcf
5/25/12: 46 TDD/+71 bcf
9/26/08: 46 TDD/+87 bcf

 The above 7 weeks (other than 5/11/18) averaged only +87. So, today was looser than the average of these 7 similar weeks by a whopping 19 bcf. But the two 2012 weeks followed a much higher 3/31/12 storage, which was similar to the high 3/31/16 storage. These were by far the 3 tightest weeks for good reason. If these 3 are thrown out, the average of the other 4 is +96 fwiw.

 

 Next week's report will be another very telling report.

 

 

MarketForum Reading List
Most of the 70 titles below have been recommended by MarketForum regulars
Useful sites for ordering trading books:
Traders Library
Amazon

 

Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk, by Peter L. Bernstein
Applying Elliott Wave Theory Profitably, by Steven Poser
Beyond Candlesticks: New Japanese Charting Techniques Revealed, by Steve Nison
Beyond Technical Analysis (2nd Edition), by Tushar S. Chande
Black Swan (The): The Impact of the Highly Improbable, by Nassim Taleb
Candlestick Charting Explained: Timeless Techniques for Trading Stocks and Futures, by Gregory L. Morris
Commodity Futures and Options, by George Kleinman
Compleat Day Trader II (The), by Jake Bernstein
Complete Guide (The) To Option Selling, by James Cordier & Michael Gross
Day Trade Futures Online, by Larry Williams
Disciplined Trader, The: Developing Winning Attitudes, by Mark Douglas
Dynamic Trading: Dynamic Concepts in Time, Price and Pattern Analysis with Practical Strategies for Traders and Investors, by Robert C. Miner
Education of a Speculator (The), by Victor Niederhoffer
Elements of Successful Trading: Developing Your Comprehensive Strategy Through Psychology, Money Management, & Trading Methods, by Robert Rotella
Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of Crowds, by Charles Mackay
Float Analysis: Powerful Technical Indicators Using Price and Volume, by Steve Woods
Fooled by Randomness, by Nassim Taleb
Get Rich With Options: Four Winning Strategies from the Exchange Floor. by Lee Lowell
High Probability Trading Strategies, by Robert Miner
How Charts Can Help You in the Stock Market, by William L. Jiler
How I made One Million Dollars Last Year Trading Commodities, by Larry R. Williams
How I Trade and Invest in Stocks and Bonds, by Richard D. Wyckoff
How I Trade for a Living, by Gary Smith
How To Become a Real-Time Commodity Futures Trader - From Home, by Scott A. Krieger
Intelligent Futures Trading, by Chick Goslin
Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques: A Contemporary Guide to the Ancient Investment Techniques of the Far East, by Steve Nison
Japanese Chart of Charts (The), by Seiki Shimizu
Magic of Moving Averages (The), by Scot Lowry
McMillan on Options, by Lawrence McMillan
Money Bazaar (The): Inside the Trillion-Dollar World of Currency Trading, by Andrew Krieger
Money Game (The), by Adam Smith
New Market Timing Techniques: Innovative Studies in Market Rhythm & Price Exhaustion, by Thomas R. DeMark
New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems, by Welles Wilder
New Market Wizards (The), by Jack Schwager
New Options Advantage (The), by David Caplan
New Trading Systems and Methods (4th Edition), by Perry J. Kaufman
Option Trading in Your Spare Time, by Wendy Kirkland
Options as a Strategic Investment, by Lawrence McMillan
Options Trading Strategy of a Lifetime (The), by William Grandmill
Pit Bull: Lessons from Wall Street's Champion Trader, by Martin Schwartz
Point & Figure Charting, by Thomas J. Dorsey
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, by Edwin Lefevre

Sharpening Your Trading Skills: Tools the Winners Use, by Jim Wyckoff
Schwager on Futures: Technical Analysis, by Jack Schwager
Secret of Selecting Stocks for Immediate and Substantial Gains (The), by Larry R. Williams
Spread Trading: Low-Risk Strategies for Profiting from Market Relationships, by Howard Abell
Stock & Commodity Market Trend Trading by Advanced Technical Analysis, by John R. Hill
Street Smarts: High Probability Short Term Trading Strategies, by Laurence A. Connors and Linda Bradford Raschke
Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits, by Richard W. Schabacker
Technical Analysis Explained, by Martin J. Pring
Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets: A Comprehensive Guide to Trading Methods and Applications, by John J. Murphy
Technical Analysis from A to Z, by Steven B. Achelis
Technical Trader's Guide to Computer Analysis of the Futures Market, by Charles LeBeau & David W. Lucas
Technical Trading Mastery: 7 Steps To Win With Logic, by Chris Vermeulen
Techniques of a Professional Commodity Chart Analyst, by Arthur Sklarew
Techno Fundamental Trading, by Philip Gotthelf
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, by Nassim Taleb
The Complete Guide To Option Selling, by James Cordier & Michael Gross
The Day Trader: From the Pit to the PC, by Lewis J. Borsellino
The Encyclopedia of Trading Strategies, by Jeffrey Owen Katz and Donna McCormick
The Global Trader: Strategies for Profiting in Foreign Exchange, Futures and Stocks, by Barbara Rockefeller
The Magic of Moving Averages, by Scot Lowry
The Money Bazaar: Inside the Trillion-Dollar World of Currency Trading, by Andrew Krieger
The New Options Advantage, by David Caplan
The Options Trading Strategy of a Lifetime, by William Grandmill
The Warren Buffett Way: Investment Strategies of the World's Greatest Investor, by Robert G. Hagstrom
Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom: Van Tharp's Secrets, by Van K. Tharp
Trader Vic: Methods of a Wall Street Master, by Victor Sperandeo
Trader's Edge (The), by Grant Noble
Trading Day by Day, The Zero-Sum Game of Futures, by Chick Goslin
Trading for a Living, by Alexander Elder
Trading Methods and Applications, by John J. Murphy
Trading Options to Win, by S.A. Johnston
Trading Systems That Work, by Thomas Stridsman
Trading with DiNapoli Levels, by Joe DiNapoli
Viewpoints of a Commodity Trader, by Roy W. Longstreet
Volume and Open Interest: Classic Trading Strategies for 24-Hour Markets, by Kenneth H. Shaleen
Wall Street Ventures and Adventures Through 40 Years, by Richard D. Wyckoff
What I Learned Losing a Million Dollars, by Jim Paul and Brendan Moynihan
Winner Take All: A Brutally Honest and Irreverent Look at the Motivations and Methods of Top Traders, by William R. Gallacher
Zen in the Markets: Confessions of a Samurai Trader, by Edward Allen Toppel

 

A Memorable Thread
Dear Conservatives - 11 Minutes To Understanding
A memorable August 2015 thread on political, racial and global issues triggered by long-time MarketForum poster Lar, an African-American, and joined by fellow MF posters from all sides of the political spectrum. Congratulations to all participants for an excellent debate. MF Link

 

Spyware/Virus Advice
by gasman
04.01.2009
Follow these instructions exactly.
REBOOT
Pound on F8 while machine is booting up.
Boot into safe mode with networking

Go to trendmicro.com and download HIJACKthis.
http://www.trendsecure.com/portal/en-US/tools/security_tools/hijackthis
Install and run HIJACKthis
Go to the main menu
Do a system scan and save a log file.
The log file will open on screen as a NOTEPAD TXT file
Right Click and select all
Copy and paste the entire contents to
http://www.hijackthis.de/
In the Window at the bottom.
Run analyze.

Study the output screen for any BAD entries.
Switch back to the HIJACKthis PROGRAM screen
Click the box by the bad entries and click
FIX Checked

BAD ENTRIES ONLY NOW Not ones that are just in a different directory.

REBOOT
Pound on F8 while machine is booting up.
Boot into safe mode with networking

Then
Go to www.trendsecure.com
Run Housecall

Your AVG has been defeated.
After Housecall makes a sweep reboot

REBOOT
Pound on F8 while machine is booting up.
Boot into safe mode with networking

Uninstall AVG
REBOOT
Pound on F8 while machine is booting up.
Boot into safe mode with networking

Reinstall AVG and run a full scan.

If this doesn't work you'll have to pull the drive and slave it to an uninfested machine or do what I do which
Then scan the slaved drive
Or I usually just boot to my USB BartPE Drive and manually remove the threat.

End of Spyware/Virus Advice