Key West buoy SST in May of 2024 peaked way up at 33.5C/92.3F on 5/29/24! Records go back to 2005. The previous May’s hottest was 32.3C/90.1F (2023).
May hottest KW SST
24: 33.5C/92.3F hottest
23: 32.3C/90.1F 2nd hottest
22: 30.7C/87.3F
21: 31.4C/88.5F
20: 30.3C/86.5F 3rd coolest
19: 31.5C/88.7F 4th hottest
18: N/A
17: 31.7C/89.1F 3rd hottest
16: 30.9C/87.6F
15: 31.4C/88.5F
14: 29.7C/85.5F 2nd coolest
13: 30.7C/87.3F
12: 31.1C/88.0F
11: 30.5C/86.9F
10: 31.2C/88.2F
09: 30.8C/87.4F
08: 31.2C/88.2F
07: 29.0C/84.2F coolest
06: 30.8C/87.4F
05: 30.8C/87.4F
05-22 avg hottest in May: 30.8C/87.4F
For the period 2005-12, the hottest KW SST was 33.6C (in July). Compare that to the 33.5C of 5/29/24!
5/30/24 centered SSTa:
MY, GOODNESS. NO WONDER "THEY" ARE PREDICTING SO MANY HURRICANES.
THANKS, LARRY
Thanks much, Larry!
It's incredibly warm in this part of the ocean right now.
Do you have a link for this data and can you specify what this data represents please.
Is it an average for X number of data points or 1 data point?
It's clearly in shallow water, as indicated by the big daily swings and going from the 3rd coolest reading-20th to the hottest one 4 days later-24th.
Also the 2nd coolest-14th to the 3rd hottest-17th in 3 days.
You also state that the peak was on the 29th but your data shows the peak on the 24th unless these are hours and not days but that doesn't make sense for water temps to change that much in hours.
I'm not able to find data that hot from these sites:
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=kywf1
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/map/index.html?id=8724580
Going to the Key West data site, this is the plot I get, using their water temperature data in May. It shows a peak of 91.9 on the 29th.
OK, I did a 6 minute plot for just 5-29/30-24 and found the 92.3 F but am confused about the other data which doesn't line up with this graph of gradually increasing temperatures.
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Further investigation, confirms how shallow the water is where the temperature is taken there.
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=8724580
| Water Temperature | E1 | 1 | 3.6 ft. below MLLW |
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https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/datum_options.html
| MLLW* Mean Lower Low Water | The average of the lower low water height of each tidal day observed over the National Tidal Datum Epoch. For stations with shorter series, comparison of simultaneous observations with a control tide station is made in order to derive the equivalent datum of the National Tidal Datum Epoch. |
WKRG News 5: 2024 Hurricane Special THIS JUST BROADCAST A HOUR AGO 21 MIN
Thanks much, Jean!
Larry,
I did some additional homework on this site.
Because the water is extremely shallow, this buoy experiences big diurnal swings EVERY sunny day corresponding to solar heating.
I plotted just the last 11 days in May to illustrate this.
Peaks occur late in the evening day, every day, followed by rapid cooling.........until several hours after the sun rises the next day. Min's occur during the mornings but with a gradual/slow warming until we saw the anomalous spike higher very late on the 29th. which was +1.8 Deg F compared to the previous days spike higher.
Some of us remember vividly the discussion last year on how shallow water features extremely warm DIURNAL spikes up in temperatures from solar radiation.
Record warmest water temp......NOT!
27 responses |
Started by metmike - July 26, 2023, 12:38 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/97607/
Thread of the week-7-26-23/Coral Reefs
15 responses |
Started by metmike - July 26, 2023, 4:38 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/97624/
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Regardless, I don't doubt that this is a record for that 1 site and unquestionably, the SSTs in this area and the Tropical Atlantic are the warmest ever for this time of year!
Tropical storms need around 27 Deg. C+ over a depth of 50 meters to form and sustain.
Current temps are PLENTY WARM in this area right now.
Fascinating to see that ribbon of warm coming north with the Gulf Stream.
https://www.trackthetropics.com/sea-surface-temperatures-ssts/
Jean said,
“MY, GOODNESS. NO WONDER "THEY" ARE PREDICTING SO MANY HURRICANES.
THANKS, LARRY”
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Hey Jean,
You’re welcome. Indeed. There’s near record amounts of fuel in the Atlantic basin. It is that in combo with La Niña which is leading to an amazingly high level of activity in the forecasts.
Maybe I’ll do a forecast contest again, the 2nd annual MarketForum Atlantic tropical contest as it was fun last year. I’m going to think about it.
I'LL BE WATCHING FOR YOUR CONTEST, LARRY. LOL
Mike said,
“Larry,
I did some additional homework on this site.
Because the water is extremely shallow, this buoy experiences big diurnal swings EVERY sunny day corresponding to solar heating.”
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Hey Mike,
Thanks for your replies. I want to remind you that this isn’t one of those very shallow water buoys along with dark (heat absorbing) sea floors that produced upper 90s to low 100s last summer in Florida Bay (Manatee Bay (101.1F), Johnson Key, etc.). We and Dr. Masters agreed those weren’t comparable to most other buoys and certainly not comparable to the one in the deep Kuwait Bay with the unofficial world record of 99.7 in 2020:
Those buoys had very wide diurnal ranges that were often 9F+! Here’s Manatee Bay when they hit 101.1F (7/24/23):
But the Key West Buoy is in significantly deeper water and thus had a much smaller diurnal range for the same period and has a diurnal range that averages only ~2F at most overall, not a big range:
Mike said:
“It's clearly in shallow water, as indicated by the big daily swings and going from the 3rd coolest reading-20th to the hottest one 4 days later-24th.
Also the 2nd coolest-14th to the 3rd hottest-17th in 3 days.
You also state that the peak was on the 29th but your data shows the peak on the 24th unless these are hours and not days but that doesn't make sense for water temps to change that much in hours.”
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Hey Mike,
That table I did refers to the hottest in each May 2005-2024. Those aren’t dates. They are the two digit years. Sorry I wasn’t clear enough. The purpose of that was to show how 2023 and especially 2024 sticks out like a burnt thumb ;) vs 2005-22. Note that 2024’s insanely warm for May 92.3F is 4.9F hotter than the average peak in May of 2005-22!
Also, keep in mind that this water is deep enough for coral in the vicinity, unlike the very shallow FL Bay to the north. So, Key West buoy SSTs are representative of what the coral has to withstand. :(
OK, Thanks a ton for clarifying that, Larry.
That explains my bad first impression thinking the water temp was changing so much from day to day. Sorry if I didn't get it the first time.
I'm not trying to debunk anything, just trying to completely understand it to learn.
Do you know how deep the water is at this location?
I knew it wasn't the same situation as the one from last Summer but thought it was still somewhat shallow because of thinking the data was daily data on the first post. .......My Bad!
Mike, No worries.
I don’t know how deep is the water where the Key West buoy is. But I concluded on my own that it is very likely much deeper than the FL Bay buoys based on diurnal range, alone.
Thanks and I agree.
And thanks the most for sharing this data with us, Larry!
I can tell that Jean is really pumped up too with regards to the upcoming hurricane season that should Be one of the most active in history.
The very warm water in this location is a HUGE deal.
Obviously it’s very likely to get hotter with 2 more months of the oceans adding heat before peaking in August.
IT'S THE TIME OF THE SEASON :)
EVERY TIME I SEE A PIER IN A STORM... I GO RIGHT BACK TO THE MID '70 ERA ON THE LAKE WORTH, FL. PIER. A STORM WAS BREWIN', SOOOOOO... OFF I WENT TO THE PIER. LOL ( I ALWAYS WENT CLEAR TO THE END ~ GOTTA BE IN THE ELEMENTS, YA KNOW. ) I WAS THE ONLY ONE ON IT & SOON, SOME GUY JOINED ME. THE WAVES WERE CRASHING OVER IT. WEEEEEEEEEEE. A FEW MINUTES LATER, I FELT THAT PIER SHUDDER LIKE I'D NEVER FELT, BEFORE. I TOLD THAT GUY WE'D BETTER GET OFF, SUMPIN' AIN'T RIGHT... I CAN "FEEL" IT. HE LOL AT ME. HAHAHHAAAAA I SAID "DO WHAT YA WANT, I'M LEAVIN'!" LOL I WALKED OFF PRETTY BRISKLY & STOOD ON THE BEACH, WATCHIN' HIM.
SOON THERE WAS ONE HUGE WAVE HIT THE END OF THAT PIER & HE TOOK OFF RUNNIN' 100 MPH! LOLOLOL THAT PIER LOOKED LIKE A BOX OF TOOTHPICKS THAT SOMEONE HAD OPENED & THREW IN THE AIR. EVEN OVER THE SOUNDS OF THE WATER & WIND... I COULD HEAR HIM SCREAMIN'!! THOSE BOARDS WERE GETTIN' LIFTED OFF, NO MORE THAN 15-20 FEET BEHIND HIM & GAININ' ON HIM.. FORTUNATELY, HE MADE IT OFF & STOOD WITH ME ON THE BEACH... OUT OF BREATH, SCARED, BUT...STILL LOL.
The Key West buoy’s water temp has come down considerably since the high peaked at a record high for May of 92.3 late on 5/29/24. It is now down to 86.7, which compares to 90.0 at the same time on May 29 & 30. So, a 3.3F drop essentially. A wetter pattern in recent days has been a big help.
Thanks much, Larry.
That's why I was saying earlier that the data from this site, suggests it's in shallow water.
SST's at this time of year, with an increasingly powerful sun, don't drop like this without some sort of unusual reason, unless its in shallow water.
(A hurricane churning up cool water from below, for example can be one of those reasons when its not shallow water).
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This site will only let me plot 1 month at a time.
So here was the previous month. Note another spike up and drop that resembles this last one. Weather, as you mentioned is probably playing a big role.
If rains are causing this, then it has to be in shallow water!
Not as shallow as the 100+ F reading last year but still shallow.
Hey Mike,
It is still nowhere near the 9-10 F diurnal changes at the very shallow FL Bay buoys. This was a 3.3 F drop over 5 days time.
An average diurnal range there is under 2F.
Regardless of the depth, the 92.3 F of May 29th was unquestionably a record high for May at this buoy as I went through all of the data. I know you’re not questioning that. Before 2024, the old record May high was 90.1 in 2023.
Again, I get that but let me put it this way.
Shallow water extremes and records don't carry the same weight as SST's that are not in such shallow water.
Again, not as shallow as the 101 reading from last Summer.
As such, the prevailing principle that determines records like this is stated below with the "Golden Rule" because THE WEATHER played such a critical role.
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It really boils down to this, once again(Cliff Mass can be counted on as an elite source for using objective, authentic science)
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/03/the-golden-rule-of-climate-extremes.html
The GoldenRule
Considering the substantial confusion in the media about this critical issue, let me provide the GOLDENRULE OF CLIMATE EXTREMES. Here it is:
The more extreme a climate or weather record is, the greater the contribution of natural variability.
Or to put it a different way, the larger or more unusual an extreme, the higher proportion of the extreme is due to natural variability.
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It's still a record for that site. Probably many of the sites in the deeper water of the tropical Atlantic buoys will have records this Summer too but this one is in shallow water. That looks like why it was able to spike up so hot in May. Other shallow water buoys in the Keys probably did the same thing, I would bet.
Using data from THIS buoy, instead of buoys in much deeper water........which are the standards for accessing accurate SSTs, should come with an asterisk.
*This buoy is located in shallow water and is impacted much more from weather than standard deeper water buoys which measure the water temperature with more consistency.
Thanks, Mike. I'm trying to get the mean depth of the water at the buoy. The water temp is taken at 2.4 meters below MLLW (~8 feet down). But I want the depth to the ocean floor. I don't expect it to be as deep as the depth where that buoy is in Kuwait Bay (where the unofficial record high was taken), regardless.
