Everybody will be watching, then spinning afterwards.
I will guess that it will be better than his debate, maybe MUCH better.
Since its almost impossible to conceive it being worse, that isn't saying much.
I know from experience with my almost 99 year old Dad that he still has relatively sharp days and sometimes, can play chess at the level he did 15 years ago...........and it blows me away. It's like............"if only there was a drug to make him like this ALL the time"
But those times are becoming fewer and fewer and very rare now, just like with Biden.
But Biden is the president. The bar is set much higher than the one that I use for my 99 year old dad or FOR ANYBODY.
His stumbles, confusion, memory/cognitive losses and delusion/denial are emphatically defining him MOST of the time here in July 2024.
And its been getting progressively worse. Parkinson's or Dementia/Alzheimer always gets worse with time. There is no cure. It's impossible for Biden to get better. That's a stone cold medical fact until modern science comes up with an effective treatment/cure.
So Biden could have his best early evening performance in months and his supporters will pretend that the debate was an outlier bad performance caused, not by his real condition but by other made up factors........jet lag from his visit to Europe 2 weeks earlier, for instance. An unknown virus/cold. Whatever.
Then, his supporters will be energized and use it to believe in the fairly tale that Biden can be president for another 4 years. Chance of that? .00001%
If that happened, he would be a medical marvel/miracle. The first person in all of medical history, his age to get better from his condition 4 years later. It's never happened.
Or he could have more huge communication blunders tonight and its over, even for the deniers of the truth.
Or it could be something in between and everybody believes what they want to be true, while viewing the exact same press conference and exact same responses.
The Rs should hope he does well and that this keeps him in the race longer. He CANNOT be resurrected by 1 or even several good events, where he can still read from a teleprompter.
His condition is permanent and progressive AND EVERYBODY IS WATCHING NOW!
The Ds likely already know who's going to replace him and probably when.
My guess is Kamala but she is not very popular either.
However, less people hate her than the number of people that really hate Donald Trump and she is
NOT old,
NOT Donald Trump and
NOT Joe Biden.
In the sad state that our presidential elections have morphed into, those are the most important credentials to become president for the next 4 years )-:
Being qualified? Not the most important thing any more. Having good agenda? Not the most important thing any more.
In 2024, to win as a D, you just need these credentials:
NOT old,
NOT Donald Trump and
NOT Joe Biden.
The D voters will unite and flock to any person with those credentials.
Kamala Harris has that and a few more qualities that the Ds can use to inject new enthusiasm into their voting base.
NOT old,
NOT Donald Trump and
NOT Joe Biden.
But she is unable to make a clear argument.... always a word salad....
I have said before that she is the reason Joe doesn't get impeached JMHO
WHEN YOU SPOKE OF YOUR DAD & CHESS... MOM WAS AN AVID JIG-SAW PUZZLER FROM BEFORE I WAS EVEN BORN, I THINK. LOL IT GOT TO THE POINT, WHEN SHE WAS 85, TO WHERE SHE COULDN'T FIT NOT ONE PIECE IN, EVEN IF I SHOWED HER WHERE IT WENT,
THE LST TIME SHE TRIED... SHE BEGAN CRYING & SAID: "I'M SO A STUPID NOW, I'M TOO DUMB TO PUT EVEN A PIECE OF PUZZLE IN"... WALKED AWAY & SAT ON THE COUCH.
I PUT THE PUZZLE AWAY & CLEARED THE BIG 4X4 BOARD I'D MADE & PAINTED WHITE...... THE NEXT DAY, SHE TOOK A PEN & WROTE ON THE BOARD: "THANKS FOR THE MEMORIES... LOVE, MOM"
I STILL HAVE THAT BOARD & WILL 'TIL THE DAY I STOP BREATHING.
WHAT A HORRID DISEASE
I feel for you, Jean.
Maybe Biden will withdraw tonight?
when back in the office,
I’ll have the clip of Biden introducing Zelenskyy as President Putin earlier today.
After that and everything else, he really does need to resign tonight.
THIS GUY IS SHOWING TELEPROMPTERS
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8d9igJCrFD4
EDIT @ 7:40
UNSCRIPTED? SURE! A LIST OF WHO TO CALL ON & HE'S READING THE ANSWERS
HOW SAD!
It is kind of strange. He had an awful gaffe at the start, calling Harris VP Trump…ouch. But OTOH, he has been asked two part Q’s and was able to remember the first Qs and answer them. Jeez, I’d probably have trouble even remembering what the 1st questions even were lol. And his thought process has overall not been bad to this point. I think what showed in this presser was more of a gaffe/communication problem than whether or not he was clearly thinking. And by the way, I make gaffes all the time when just in casual conversation.
I do think he should withdraw though as there’s no way he could last mentally enough to remain POTUS til anywhere near age 86 since he’s clearly been going downhill cognitively. But he really didn’t do bad at all imho after that terrible gaffe.
Thanks for the wonderful comments!
As somebody that has been watching Biden very closely the past 4 years, I think he had a great night.
He made the one huge gaffe that Larry mentioned, calling VP Harris, VP Trump that unfortunately, DEFINES HIM NOW A DAYS. Him not making more bad gaffes for an hour was actually unusual for Joe Biden in July 2024. But this is why I think he did so good.
With regards to any of us making gaffes like this...........NOT!
US President Joe Biden mistakenly referred to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as “President Putin” while speaking to reporters about Nato’s support for Ukraine. He later corrected himself, before Zelensky took the microphone.
https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/ce78zklp77wo
++++++++++++++++
That one above was a Hall of Fame gaffe that in my years of following politics, I can't remember from another person in a setting like this. Again, THIS DEFINES JOE BIDEN and today, he was definitely having a great day but still made that huge gaffe.
When he's having a bad day........we see the Joe Biden on the debate stage.
That's the way it is with people that have his condition, as I mentioned to start the thread. They have good days and bad days but with time, more and more bad days.
For Pete's sake, this is the president of the United States. We should be able to count on COGNITIVE STABILITY almost ALL THE TIME! Almost all good days and even on bad days, don't notice enough to suffer a loss in leadership/communication.
24 hours/day, 365 days/year.
I would make the case that Donald Trump is the most unstable person running for president in history by a stratospheric margin but that's NOT the topic.
We aren't discussing who is more unstable. Biden or Trump.
We are discussing Biden's consistent ability to communicate clearly with thoughtful discourse............LIKE HE DID TONIGHT, other than the 1 gaffe.
Had he been able to do that all the time, including during the debate then none of this hoopla over his being unqualified would have happened. And regardless of whether he's still having great nights like tonight, they will become less and less frequent as this condition follows the same path of everybody else on the planet that has had it.
Another thing. He insisted that if his doctors think he needs a cognitive test, then he'll take one but otherwise, he doesn't need one.
WHOOOA! Exact wrong answer to that question, Joe!
1. Everybody on the planet is questioning his cognitive health. In fact, more people are concerned about this, when it comes to the upcoming presidential election, than any other topic right now. If he knew it was good, you mean to say the most powerful person on the planet doing summer saults and back flips (in his mind) to convince people that his cognitive health is outstanding......can't have his doctors do a cognitive test on him to prove it? This is crystal clear denial or lying.
2. The idea that somebody in this position and with his condition has not been under the constant care of a SPECIALIST (neurologist) that deals with it is galactically ludicrous. We are supposed to believe that all of us can see his condition but the best doctors in the world can't? And that those doctors would not be using the latest medicines, therapies and treatments to maximize his support to make him the best possible President Joe Biden for the country and for press conferences like this is just galactically insane.
So despite his great night, his denial confirms that he clearly knows about the condition that we know with 99.9999% likelihood, that he is being treated for and lies about.
But what is he going to say about it?
The truth? That he's seen the neurologist X number of times this year and being prescribed meds X, Y and Z. And being advised to sleep more or do less. Or to do specific therapy/exercises. I will say that the schedule of a president is extremely challenging and helps to stimulate the brain of a person with his condition. He has referred to that as his daily cognitive test but he sometimes fails that, like on debate day. I would definitely agree that it's excellent therapy to keep his brain stimulated but might be overtaxing for a person with his condition.
Where do we go from here?
Biden is still all in but the ship is still sinking and as of now, he's NOT GOING TO WIN in November.
As mentioned previously, if Biden WAS AHEAD in the polls and even more cognitively damaged than this.........the D party would be uniting behind him. The Ds mainly want to beat Trump no matter what it takes, who it takes.
They will use Biden's cognitive losses as an excuse to replace him, unless he has a miraculous recovery in the polls.
However, at some point it really will be too late and they will be stuck with Biden and then, the Ds will have a LOSE-LOSE situation in a sense.
If Biden loses the election, D voters, the vast majority, who want somebody different because they strongly feel Biden is too old will be furious.
If Biden pulls out a miracle win, he won't last long in office and VP Harris will take over. A person that never got 1 vote for president at election time. This will make the Ds targets for misrepresentation and a sort of legit election fraud this time. Pretending the guy at the top of their ticket could do the job for 4 years..........when THEY KNEW he couldn't.
Voters in the United States deserve the right to vote for a candidate to do the job of president that is capable of doing the job.
Not a name that allows them to beat Donald Trump. I realize that its all about beating the other person but a legit election MUST FEATURE a person that is capable of actually doing the job.
WHEN HE BEGINS TO SAY: "ANYWAY"... HE'S LOST HIS TRAIN OF THOUGHT.
I THINK IT WAS AFTER HIS COMMENT ABOUT "MY WIFE IS ALWAYS GIVING THEM HELL" (MAYBE, NOT HIS EXACT WORDS, BUT... I CAN BARELY UNDERSTAND WHAT HE SAYS) HE WAS REFERRING TO THE STAFF OVERWORKING HIM, WAS THE 1ST "ANYWAY". I HEARD HIM SAY, TONIGHT.
I follow this website, Predict It, which has always changing betting odds on various things including politics. Earlier this evening, Harris had jumped as much as 20 points ahead of Biden (highest ever) as regards betting on the Dem nominee. However, by the end of this presser, Biden had come all of the way back to near even. I find that fascinating and it shows that the bettors thought Biden did very well after that awful gaffe at the start:
Makes good sense to me, Larry!
Great that you showed that too!
I meant to show the same thing earlier.
The vice president eclipsed Biden on major prediction market PolyMarket on Thursday, too, with traders giving Harris a 42% chance at the nomination to Biden's 38%. The day prior, PolyMarket had Biden's odds at 69%, and Harris' at 20%.
Harris also jumped ahead of Biden in the betting odds of winning the election on BetUS.com, with a 20% implied probability compared to Biden’s 18.18% implied probability. Trump surged ahead as well on Thursday, with a 69.23% implied probability.
+++++++++++++++
I think the alarming thing for Ds is that neither of them can beat Trump unless we see a big change.
THANKS FOR THAT, LARRY. AM I INCORRECT WHEN I SEE THAT AS A WASH? AN HOUR & MOST, NEVER CHANGED THEIR MIND?
Here's more from your link, Larry:
Trump is the line at the top. Biden in red, Harris in blue.
1. Last week. Harris passed up Biden on thursday but he came back to near the same After the news conference.
2. Last 90 days. We can see how the debate has influenced opinions/bets! Trump has increased since then, Biden crashed lower and Harris coming up from near 0 to at or above Biden. Volume of bets has been thru the roof after the debate, especially high that night. Somebody watching that debate could have made a lot of money betting against Joe Biden after his first 2 sentences came out but I don't know how this works.
Have you used this before, Larry??
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election
Jean said: THANKS FOR THAT, LARRY. AM I INCORRECT WHEN I SEE THAT AS A WASH? AN HOUR & MOST, NEVER CHANGED THEIR MIND?
————-
Hey Jean,
I’m talking about how far down Biden had dropped earlier in the evening prior to the press conference. He was down to Harris 54 to 34, the worst yet. But after the initial gaffe and as the press conference went on and ended, Biden rise back sharply and it became a virtual tie with both in the mid 40s.
Hey Mike,
I follow Predict-It regularly but I never used it for actual betting. I like to use it to follow trends.
THANKS, LARRY. I STILL DON'T UNDERSTAND THE GRAPH.
I JUST HAD A THOUGHT RACE THRU MY MIND... IS THERE ANYTHING LEGALLY, THAT WOULD KEEP OBAMA FROM BEING VP?
Here ya go on Obama, Jean:
So the answer is no, he likely can't be Biden's VP.
President Biden displayed his vast experience in foreign policy/affairs(that I personally think he's messing up very badly on) and mentioned Trump's lack of experience.
Well, if you want to use comparisons like this, Kamala's experience with foreign policy makes Trump look like a seasoned veteran.
Getting back to yesterday's great press conference from Biden that has reassured those that want him to stay.
He had a great day for sure but earlier, on that same day, he introduced President Zelensky after a KEY SPEECH TO NATO as President Putin. His calling VP Harris, VP Trump was a lesser more easily overlooked gaffe.
His progressive condition makes some things inevitable.
1. It's only going to get worse. There will be XX number of NEW gaffes and incidents of confusion between now and November.
2. There is NO WAY he will be able to perform the duties of president for another 4 years, unless he becomes a medical miracle. One can make the case that just the gaffes on his good days, under the current environment are detracting from the office of president and what he's trying to accomplish.
3. We all know that he/they are lying their arse's off about him ever being tested for what we know he has, let alone being treated for it which we know is being done. That being the case and the denial of his condition that we can all see with our own eyes and ears, means that millions of people will be turned off by the lies and arrogant insistence that a way over the hill person not qualified to be president for 4 years..........is the choicethe Ds are being forced to vote for.
It would be like the drivers license bureau and car insurance company, knowing an elderly man has had half a dozen fender benders this year and could not pass their cognitive tests BUT RENEW HIS DRIVERS LICENSE ANYWAYS. What do you think will happen when that knowing unqualified driver kills somebody? The responsible entities are held accountable, which is the driver AND the ones that knew better. In this case, the D gatekeepers. And it will seal a disastrous conclusion to the legacy of Joe Biden.
If he pulls off a miracle and wins, then we have Harris anyway and people feel she became president based on lies about Biden being qualified.
Why not just BE HONEST AND RUN KAMALA HARRIS NOW and stop the bleeding and lies??? Unite the D party behind a young person that could serve 8 years. There may be more people turned off in November with a lie about voting for Kamala to be president, by voting for Biden as the president that he can't be, rather than if they were just upfront and ran Kamala.
Especially with Biden's poll numbers SCREAMING a loss coming up with him at the top of the ticket. This seems like political malpractice by Biden and the Ds when they have a better option.
President Biden suddenly acquiring a fake tan after the debate debacle as well as him clearly getting botox injections has definitely made him LOOK healthier. Nothing wrong with people doing things to look their best. However, to me it just feeds into the attempts, using things that don't make him qualified, to prop up somebody that can't be the president for 4 more years, long enough to drag him over the finish line to.......likely lose to Donald Trump.
Where is this beneficial to the D party?
MIKE SAID: "So the answer is no, he likely can't be Biden's VP."
THANKS, MIKE. I WAS THINKING MORE ON THE LINE OF HIM BEING KAMALAS' VP. THE WORD "LIKELY" STICKS OUT LIKE A SORE THUMB, TO ME.
WHICH PRESIDENT WAS ELECTED / SERVED 3 TIMES???????? AND, WHAT WAS THE CAUSE / REASON / EXCUSE FOR THAT TO HAPPEN???
WHAT ARE THE LAWS AGAINST PACKING THE SCOTUS? (NOT THAT THEY'D BE UPHELD, OF COURSE)
WHAT AN ALMOST TOTAL DEBACLE THIS COUNTRY IS IN.
Yes, we are in deep doo doo, Jean.
If Trump wins, almost half the country will be outraged and likely not take it very well.
It's not like anything in the past, pre-2016, when the losers accepted losses.
In 2016, Clinton's loss resulted in the 2.5 year blatantly corrupt Mueller investigation to try to discredit the Trump presidency and blame the loss on Russia.
In 2020, Trump's loss included the Insurrection AND 3+ years of Trump/Rs continuing to insist the election was stolen.
It's 2024 and both sides are even MORE divided. What will the losers do this time?
It's not like Ds just dislike Trump and can accept another 4 years. I am positive that the biggest feature of another 4 years under Trump will be the most extreme, negative reaction that our country has ever seen to any politician.
A high % of these people are obsessed with their intense hatred of Trump and they will be devoting much energy towards doing everything possible to work AGAINST him and to DESTROY him. .......and, ironically justify it by calling it "saving our democracy". So their actions of destroying our democracy, like the absurd weaponization of the justice system to target Trump, will be used to claim that they are SAVING our democracy.
And if Trump loses, it seems very unlikely that he will acknowledge the loss and recognize the winner..........and he will have 10s of millions of MAGA people that believe whatever he says.
This was the only person in American history that served more than 2 terms and it was because of WW-2.
An amendment was passed by Congress after this to limit a president to 2 terms.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidency_of_Franklin_D._Roosevelt,_third_and_fourth_terms
MIKE SAID: "This was the only person in American history that served more than 2 terms and it was because of WW-2.
An amendment was passed by Congress after this to limit a president to 2 terms."
YOU ARE CORRECT.... AND......... WE ARE ON THE SHAKY / UNSTEADY LEDGE OF WWIII. IT'S NOT GONNA TAKE MUCH MORE & THAT LEDGE IS GONNA DISAPPEAR, RIGHT OUT FROM UNDERNEATH US.
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF? IT'S A LONNNNNGGGGG WAY TO JAN. 20, 2025... EXACTLY 80 YEARS FROM FDRs' 4TH INAUGURATION. A WHOLE LOT OF BAD CAN "HAPPEN" BETWEEN NOW & THEN. A "MERE" 6 MONTHS, CAN TURN INTO ETERNITY.
HYPOTHETICAL: IF BIDEN LOSES THE ELECTION, BUT... DECLARES WAR BEFORE THE 2025 INAUGURATION.... THEN WHAT??? TURN THE WAR OVER TO THE NEW POTUS TO DEAL WITH...WHEN THEY HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH STARTING IT? THEN, THE BLAME GAME CAN BEGIN, EH?
EDIT @ 7:38..... Claudia Tenney Calls For Former Intel Officials To Be Investigated Over 2020 Hunter Biden Letter... ALSO TALKS OF DNC CONVENTION & BIDEN REPLACEMENT. 10 1/2 MINUTES
EDIT AT 8:00 PM... HE'S IN MICHIGAN, HOLDING A RALLY... STATING WHAT HE'LL DO IN HIS NEXT "FIRST 100 DAYS". OVER TURN THE SCOTUS ABORTION RULING, ETC.........
It appears that the combination of his well-thought-out answers to foreign policy Qs in the press conference and then doing quite well in this evening’s speech has lead to a big rally on Predict-It regarding the predicted Dem nominee. At about the time of the “VP Trump” gaffe yesterday Biden had dropped to his lowest to that time, 20 points down at ~35% to Harris’ 55%. Then he quickly came up to almost even by the time the presser was done. And now tonight after the impressive rally speech he has pulled ahead 50% to 38%.
I still think he should withdraw, however, since his overall condition is generally progressive. But that is quite a turnaround for the time being anyway.
Thanks, Larry. Great site!
interesting that with less than 4 months to go, we’re following a race for the D person at the top of the ticket between the current president who is running and the current vice president who is not even running for president but has almost the same numbers because people are speculating that she will end up running to replace the president.
while Trump, who almost always has been the center of attention…..just kicks back and watches the Ds fight with each other over Biden.
https://www.newsweek.com/republicans-trump-joe-biden-remain-race-2024-1924460
+++++++++++++++++++++
What's especially ironic is the Ds keep on playing the narrative that Trump, if elected will be a dictator that clings to power.
Even as their guy, Joe Biden here in 2024, well past being capable of serving as president for another 4 years by any objective standard.........CLINGS TO POWER and refuses to withdraw even with increasing calls from fellow Ds for him to let a younger person, who would better represent the future of the D party replace him.
++++++++++++++
This was written by a Democrat with a good plan for picking the new person who has a better chance to beat Trump:
Jul 12, 2024
https://oldgoats.substack.com/p/biden-clings-to-power
++++++++++++++++++
This is the same/similar plan that Larry/Jean posted about:
Carville: Biden can’t win;Dems need plan;4 town halls b4 convention
Started by WxFollower - July 9, 2024, 12:06 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/105581/
At about the time of the “VP Trump” gaffe Biden had dropped to his lowest to that time, 20 points down at ~35% to Harris’ 55%. Then he quickly came up to almost even by the time the presser was done. And then last evening after the impressive rally speech he pulled ahead 50% to 38%. Now, he’s up by 22% 48 hrs after being down 20%!
I still think he should withdraw, however, since his overall condition is generally progressive. But that is quite a turnaround for the time being anyway.
Thanks much, Larry.
This actually is what's very sad for the D's with less than 4 months to go. Focusing on whether Biden will survive or not and whether Kamala will replace him or not.
Instead of what every other D party did at this stage in presidential history during my life time............uniting behind 1 candidate to win in November.
However, this actually could be part of a brilliant scheme by the Ds(I'm dead serious).
You just showed how extreme the changes can be in peoples views over an extremely short period.
With that being the case, when the Ds announce Kamala is the candidate(Biden withdraws), this is almost certain to cause a positive OVER REACTION to the upside for Kamala. Some of it relief but make no mistake, age will no longer hurt the Ds from that point and the initial spike up for Kamala will have timing dynamics.
There will not be enough time to dampen this enthusiasm if the Ds do it late enough in the game.
Kamala will still be riding the wave of Ds excited that they have a young candidate, representing their future that can beat Trump.
Kamala's support right now is not high enough to win. A year from now it may not be high enough to win but the trick will be to make the announcement of her being the top candidate, timing wise so that the inevitable big bounce up is when people are VOTING!
Brilliant plan but Joe has to be converted to a team player!
Watch for it!
++++++++++++++++++
While the Biden vs Harris uncertainty continues to get attention, Trump continues his fairly impressive lead.
Joe Biden jumping ahead of Kamala hardly made a dent.
Note below that if you add all the Ds together, they still don't add up to Trump.
However, the emotional bump up right before the election, announcing Kamala as the one can temporarily overcome that.
https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-chances-winning-3-critical-swing-states-polls-1924800
++++++++++++
You can throw this out the window because all the Ds will unite behind her to defeat Trump.......and she's NOT OLD!
Trump is now 67c, easily the highest yet.
Biden 27c. Not much change.
Harris dropped to 11c.
For Ds
Biden is 73 to Harris 21, so that market thinks Biden will stay.