NWS Forcast
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Started by Jim_M - July 28, 2024, 4:01 p.m.

The NWS has a little something for all the grain traders tonight.  A hot dry Midwest for the next 10 days, giving “baked beans” a whole new definition.  Then a good wash after that, if there is anything left.


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Re: NWS Forcast
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By metmike - July 28, 2024, 4:34 p.m.
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Thanks Jim.

Are you long???

go to the weather page to see all the week 1 rains ,please.

By Jim_M - July 28, 2024, 5:05 p.m.
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I closed out all my positions on Thursday.  I have no dog in the fight now.  But I am intrigues to see what happens. 

I’m always lurking Mike,  

By metmike - July 28, 2024, 8:09 p.m.
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Thanks, Jim!

I was driving back from Detroit and am home now.

These are the rain maps that I was referring too:

Beans are -10c at the moment after opening around -4C??

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83848

The latest 7 day precip forecasts are below.

 

Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126



By metmike - Aug. 1, 2024, 10:41 p.m.
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Happy August to you!

Severe storm reports this week. Very active for this time of year!!!

Storms tracking around the periphery of the heat ridge!


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/240801_rpts.html

So far today, 8-1-24/Thursday



7-31-24/Wednesday


7-30-24/Tuesday


7-29-24/Monday


7-28-24/Sunday

By Jim_M - Aug. 4, 2024, 5:24 p.m.
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I think it is not an outrageous thought to think crop ratings could improve again this week.  Over the last 2-3 weeks here in NE Ohio, we went from getting pretty dry, to dare I say, lush?  
We have been getting some pretty good rains lately and the crops around here look healthy.  

By metmike - Aug. 4, 2024, 8:13 p.m.
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You are probably right, Jim!

Interesting, much of the Midwest is going into a dry period the next 10 days or so but it will also turn very cool by August standards in many of those areas. This is actually BEARISH for corn because it will slow down maturity and increasing kernel filling time that contributes towards larger kernels and higher yields.

It's the exact opposite of heat fill.


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/

6 to 10 day outlooks

Click below for information about how to read 6-10 day outlook maps
 Temperature        Precipitation
Click below for archives of past outlooks (data & graphics), historical analogs to todays forecast, and other formats of the 6-10 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


Here's our best thread for explaining and illustrating this principle:


                Heat Fill for Corn                    

                Started by metmike - July 14, 2023, 2:47 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/97257/

By metmike - Aug. 4, 2024, 11:23 p.m.
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Here a great site for your neck of the woods, Jim!

It also includes jean, cutworm, mcfarm and metmike!!!

https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/AccumPrecipDepart




By metmike - Aug. 5, 2024, 12:57 a.m.
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These were the total 2 week rains from the drier 12z  European model.

Areas in brown and especially yellow will see an inch or LESS during this period.

That's less 50% of the average. In some cases, maybe less than 25% in the yellow(and greens outside the cornbelt).

The Upper MIdwest will have robust rains!


Note the area in the Southeast with heavy rains.

Looks like the 5th shade of rain going up the scale to the right for the center band, along the Southeast Coast.

This would be 10+ inches of rain, most of why will fall from Debby this week.