Yes, I know there has been only 1 complete stop out since nov. 2003. That was back in march of this year.
But, keep an eye on your stops in Soyb, until you get through the next month or two.
Beans have been a great market since last nov. But most markets are great for trading most times.
Thanks, baker!
Bean prices have been hurt by another good growing season with additional help from increasing CO2 that also boosts yields.
Previous thread:
Grains July 15, 2024
29 responses |
Started by metmike - July 15, 2024, 4:59 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/105890/
+++++++++++
Very often, during seasons like this with the prices of corn/beans continuing lower and lower as the crop gets 1 day closer to being made with the turn of every calendar page........a bearish August crop report and put in a selling exhaustion.
In other words, the reverse of buy the rumor sell the fact(sell the speculative dynamics creating a large crop-weather forecasts, then when the USDA publishes the fact with a bearish production number in August, based on those conditions.........everybody short, already knew it and nobody is left to sell).
The August low tends to be short term and leads to a dead cat bounce for a month or so......followed by anticipation of harvest pressure and a new wave of selling, taking us to the harvest lows in late Sept or early October, maybe around when harvest is at the 50% point.
Each year is different.
https://www.seasonalcharts.com/future_farmprodukte_soybean.html
Before climate change greatly improved crop growing conditions in the Midwest, the big bounce in August/early September was often referred to as adding early frost premium. When the actual September weather forecasts came out with no damaging cold, it was said that the frost premium came out.
The risk for an early damaging freeze has dropped a great deal the past 3 decades.
The last big one I remember was mid September 1997?
I'll look back at my records and past posts about this and report back.
I made a boat load of money being long over a weekend.
Been unable to locate info on the September freeze in the mid 1990s but still looking.
Beans were planted late in IL/IN that year and were still green when the freeze/hard frost hit.
Getting late to REALLY hurt the crop but beans filling in August are a key time frame.
Many places having below average rains the next 2 weeks with temperatures heating up a bit in week 2 but not excessive heat.
last major early damaging frost we had was 1974.......called the 40/40/40 year.....40b/a, 40# test weight, and 40% moisture. Do not know really had we survived it. Had bills to pay and livestock to feed and nothing to sell or feed.
thanks, mcfarm.
I remember reading all about that disastrous year Back before todays more beneficial climate caused every imperfect weather pattern.
NOT!
it’s called NATURAL VARIATION and it still causes ALL the extreme weather today.
Which is slightly wetter and slightly warmer…….especially in the driest and coldest places during the coldest times of year.
Crop growing conditions in the Midwest the last 3 decades, going back to 1994, have been the best in human history by an extremely wide margin.
Not in spite of climate change but because of it.
After the Great Flood of 1993 was over. It was pretty hot and dry that Summer in Indiana.
Ill try to find more about 1974 over the weekend or next week during or after my trip to detroit.
South America adding another couple percent more acreage for beans again this year? Throw in a good growing season for them again and farmers will be reminiscing of the good ole days of $10 beans
Great points, Jim!
Climate Observations: Frosts 45 years ago severely damaged Minnesota’s corn crop.
https://www.farmprogress.com/marketing/looking-back-at-september-1974-s-unparalleled-frost-damage
++++++++++++++++++=
Back in the good old days, BEFORE climate change in the Midwest altered the weather.
NOT!!!!!
The last 3 decades have featured the best crop growing conditions in the Midwest, since humans have recorded weather.
BY A WIDE MARGIN!!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/103492/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/103492/#105104
++++++++++++++++
 1974 : Sept Freeze: Upper Midwest Soybeans Take a Hit |
https://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=406664&DisplayType=flat&setCookie=1
Let’s not forget the impact of a declining birth rate. At some point a shrinking population and growing soy output are going to have an adverse impact on prices. It will take years, but China’s population has dropped about 4 million people in the last couple years
Thanks much, Jim!
Great topic to discuss!
Despite the population shrinking in many developed countries, The GLOBAL population is INCREASING.
The demand for crop output needed to feed people and animals to feed people will continue to increase.
There will be 8.2 billion people in the world next year, projected to be 10.2 billion people in 2100, with India having almost triple the #2 country in 75 years. WOW!
All those people will need to eat!!
https://www.ined.fr/en/everything_about_population/data/world-projections/projections-by-countries/
| Rank in 2025 | Country | 2025 | 2050 | 2075 | 2100 | Rank in 2100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | India | 1 464 | 1 680 | 1 671 | 1 505 | 1 |
| 2 | China | 1 416 | 1 260 | 934 | 633 | 2 |
| 3 | United States of America | 347 | 381 | 403 | 421 | 6 |
| 4 | Indonesia | 286 | 321 | 318 | 296 | 8 |
| 5 | Pakistan | 255 | 372 | 467 | 511 | 3 |
| 6 | Nigeria | 238 | 359 | 447 | 477 | 4 |
| 7 | Brazil | 213 | 217 | 195 | 163 | 12 |
| 8 | Bangladesh | 176 | 215 | 226 | 209 | 10 |
| 9 | Russian Federation | 144 | 136 | 129 | 126 | 17 |
| 10 | Ethiopia | 135 | 225 | 309 | 367 | 7 |
| 11 | Mexico | 132 | 149 | 146 | 130 | 15 |
| 12 | Japan | 123 | 105 | 87 | 77 | 32 |
| 13 | Egypt | 118 | 162 | 191 | 202 | 11 |
| 14 | Philippines | 117 | 134 | 131 | 114 | 19 |
| 15 | Democratic Republic of the Congo | 113 | 218 | 337 | 431 | 5 |
| 16 | Viet Nam | 102 | 110 | 103 | 92 | 26 |
| 17 | Iran (Islamic Republic of) | 92 | 102 | 94 | 80 | 30 |
| 18 | Türkiye | 88 | 91 | 82 | 65 | 41 |
| 19 | Germany | 84 | 78 | 73 | 71 | 36 |
| 20 | Thailand | 72 | 66 | 55 | 46 | 50 |
| 21 | United Republic of Tanzania | 71 | 130 | 199 | 263 | 9 |
| 22 | United Kingdom | 70 | 76 | 76 | 74 | 34 |
| 23 | France (métropolitaine) | 67 | 68 | 68 | 68 | 38 |
| 24 | South Africa | 65 | 79 | 88 | 94 | 25 |
| 25 | Italy | 59 | 52 | 42 | 35 | 60 |
| 26 | Kenya | 58 | 84 | 100 | 104 | 22 |
| 27 | Myanmar | 55 | 59 | 55 | 50 | 47 |
| 28 | Colombia | 53 | 59 | 56 | 47 | 48 |
| 29 | Republic of Korea | 52 | 45 | 32 | 22 | 78 |
| 30 | Sudan | 52 | 85 | 116 | 137 | 14 |
| 31 | Uganda | 51 | 85 | 111 | 121 | 18 |
| 32 | Spain | 48 | 45 | 38 | 33 | 61 |
| 33 | Algeria | 47 | 60 | 64 | 64 | 42 |
| 34 | Iraq | 47 | 72 | 91 | 101 | 24 |
| 35 | Argentina | 46 | 48 | 45 | 38 | 55 |
| 36 | Afghanistan | 44 | 77 | 109 | 130 | 16 |
| 37 | Yemen | 42 | 71 | 96 | 110 | 20 |
| 38 | Canada | 40 | 46 | 50 | 54 | 45 |
| 39 | Angola | 39 | 74 | 115 | 150 | 13 |
| 40 | Ukraine | 39 | 32 | 23 | 15 | 88 |
| 41 | Morocco | 38 | 43 | 43 | 38 | 57 |
| 42 | Poland | 38 | 33 | 25 | 19 | 79 |
| 43 | Uzbekistan | 37 | 52 | 65 | 74 | 33 |
| 44 | Malaysia | 36 | 44 | 46 | 44 | 51 |
| 45 | Mozambique | 36 | 64 | 89 | 104 | 21 |
| 46 | Ghana | 35 | 51 | 62 | 68 | 39 |
| 47 | Peru | 35 | 40 | 41 | 18 | 56 |
| 48 | Saudi Arabia | 35 | 48 | 60 | 71 | 35 |
| 49 | Madagascar | 33 | 53 | 72 | 85 | 29 |
| 50 | Côte d’Ivoire | 33 | 56 | 81 | 104 | 23 |
| // | WORLD | 8 232 | 9 664 | 10 250 | 10 180 | // |
Where will the additional food come from to feed these people?
Same place its been coming from in recent decades.
Technological advancements and, if beneficial CO2 continues to increase, from photosynthetic, atmospheric fertilization.
I was listening to NPR yesterday evening on my car radio, while in Detroit visiting my almost 99 year old dad.
They had a long discussion on the planet greening up.
They started by citing a bad source that claimed the planet has greened up 20% in the last 2 decades. This clearly is NOT TRUE (too much) by all standards and data.
Their objective was to prove this person was full of bunk. This is how they did it.
They had their own expert on who sited several legit studies showing the planet is ONLY greening up at the rate of 5% every decade, mostly from photosynthesis. Never once mentioning that it's the increase in CO2 that's entirely driving the photosynthesis increases.
So he and they concluded that we should not believe sources like this who are claiming CO2 is greening up the planet (by more than it is) because they are lying.
They finished by telling us that the IPCC is predicting widespread crop failures by the year 2030 because of climate change.
So let's follow their logic here. The impact from increasing CO2 per decade(on average) on plants (and crops) has been/will be:
1980 +5%
1990 +5%
2000 +5%
2010 +5%
2020 +5%
2030 CROP FAILURES
Death by GREENING!
41 responses |
Started by metmike - May 11, 2021, 2:31 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69258/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69258/#71265
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69258/#71266
We are having a climate OPTIMUM for most life on this planet and CO2 is a beneficial gas, currently at just less than 50% of the optimal level.
The weather forecast COULD BE bullish...........except an extremely slow moving system this week will dump pretty good rains over a key area of the Midwest that can use rains right now.
Which means the weather forecast is bearish and the reason for new lows overnight.
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
The last 0z GEFS is still bearish.
1. 1 week rains
2. 2 week rains, most of them in week 1
I doubt we will ever see 10 billion. I question whether there is sufficient food for 8 billion. Half of all ocean life had been wiped out. I think it’s the same for bug life. Humans are pushing earth’s capacities to the limit.
Jim,
your previous post was that there will be an over abundance of supply…….this one is that we will,run out.
i have a similar price prediction for beans.
the price will go down or it will go up but it might remain the same.
USDA has record beans. Still on the road......driving home from Detroit.
USDA August 12, 2024
Started by metmike - Aug. 12, 2024, 1:41 p.m.
USDA number just too bearish to let the market psychology turn bullish enough for shorts to cover and put in a short term bottom.
Maybe most importantly, rains coming up this week in key areas that will greatly benefit, will INCREASE the size of the crop in the minds of speculators:
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
The next big trading item will be the Pro Farmer tour.
After this system in the current week passes, the weather will be dry and STOP being bearish.
Maybe that will help beans to put in a short term bottom?
It's so late in the growing season that the market will see the beans as almost being made and the weather will NOT be very bullish because of that and the lack of intense heat and the approach of early harvest.......... However, it will STOP BEING BEARISH!
Still the same. Can stay short and watch your stops.
Thanks, baker.
was long from the open on the dry forecast for such a large, key growing area for much of the next 2 weeks but stopped out for ’+6c.
if this were not so late in the growing season…..like a month ago for instance, beans would be off o the races.
however, this dry finish will take a couple of bushels off the record crop.
a shrinking crop size is bullish. A growing crop size is bearish
The lows are in for beans until early harvest pressure which usually exerts extreme downward pressure on prices in September.
No rain is bad for grain...............even in late August, when soybean pods are still filling.
20c higher for SX today is the strongest move higher in some time. Large specs being so short are fuel for short covering after this long move lower.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/soybeans
1. On a yearly chart, today is just a small blip at the very end of a LONG LASTING, ACCELERATING DOWNTREND.
2. The monthly chart shows how beans were fell off a cliff a week ago with the shockingly bearish, record smashing production estimate. This steepened the slope of the unsustainable downtrend which also likely put in a selling exhaustion low last week. It will be very tough to get back above the pre USDA report prices but for sure we've been overdue for a short covering bounce that could last for ?
3. Crop ratings are out this afternoon and the Pro Farmer crop tour will get tons of attention this week.
++++++++
These were the total week 2+ rains on the last 12z GEFS. Below average everywhere, almost nothing in parts of the Central and especially Eastern Cornbelt.
This is the next 10 days(there will be intense heat hitting in a week that will cause the soybean ratings to drop a few points in early September). Falling crop ratings = shrinking crop size = higher prices at least during this very late growing season weather scare.
This was last week and isn't impacting trade.
U.S. export sales of new-crop #soybeans last week were above expectations and led by China with 536kt. Unknown (345kt) and Mexico (258kt) bought new-crop #corn, Mexico was also the top #wheat buyer (126kt). Beef sales for the week were a MY high but pork sales were a MY low.
C and S Crop ratings stayed the same. I believe they will drop several % from this in early September, which was the fuel for todays rally. Cotton fell another 4% and this had cotton spiking higher today.
This was the last 12z European model total rains the next 2 weeks.
Compare that with the soil moisture maps below. Where soil moisture is NOT green/abundant, beans WILL lose several bushels from where their potential is right now.
This includes, OH, IN, S,IL and points south that grow a decent amount of beans.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
Pro Farmer final results:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/106670/#106924
Lastest weather.
Late in the year to impact crops but still slightly BULLISH for beans because of hot/dry in the Southern Midwest(pod filling) and a bit bearish for corn because of upcoming much cooler weather to extend the filling period a few days longer(filling is what determines kernel size- cooler weather slows down maturity, while allowing filling to continue longer)
I don’t think we will be seeing $10 beans anytime soon.
Thanks Jim!
With November closing only 19c below $10, I wouldn't be so sure of that. A spike up tomorrow of 19c wouldn't be anything we haven't seen before for beans and the weather has turned bullish for late filling...though too late to do anything except trim a few bushels off in the areas that don't get rains.
Regardless, the massive record crop/supply which will be harvested, starting in September should keep a lid on prices as you suggested.
However, everybody on the planet knows this and is short already if they want to be short.
The questions is, other than upcoming harvest pressure, what will cause NEW shorts to enter and pressure the price much lower than the current $9.81 close in November?
Beans were -1%
Corn condition was -2%
Cotton -2%
Probably close to expected by the market, though I thought the beans would drop a bit more...........they should next week.
I have backyard-itis! No rain here in well over 3 weeks with near 100 coming up the next few days.
Honest question. How much fill is done when leaves start dropping? They started dropping my nevk if the woods 2 weeks ago. I got to believe southern states are ahead of us.
“The questions is, other than upcoming harvest pressure, what will cause NEW shorts to enter and pressure the price much lower than the current $9.81 close in November?”
Why would you buy if there is a record crop, healthy stocks and meh sales.
Thanks Jim!
Here's the situation with crop maturity right now.
6% are dropping leaves vs 4% average. It's over for those places.
The places with double digit dropping leaves are AR, MS, LA and TN.
Everybody else less than 9%.
89% of the crop has set pods, 11% not. The states with the least amount setting pods(85% or less) are KS, KY, MO and ND. Most of those beans are likely double crop that got planted late(well into June-even the first 2 weeks in July), as usual after the Winter Wheat crop was harvested on those fields.
They are also probably not full season varieties with a shorter relative maturity date. So the yield will be less than full season beans planted earlier in the Spring.
The USDA discontinued the category of leaves turning yellow, which would help us to know more precisely what stage the crop is in for the 94% NOT dropping leaves yet but having already set pods.
It would matter a great deal whether they are in stages R4, R5 or R6 after pods are set because R4 and R5 are the MOST critical time for soybeans.
Leaf yellowing starts early in R6. Once the leaves are mostly yellow........weather will no longer impact the yields. If they are mostly green, weather is still important.
Soybean Growth Stage
https://extension.sdstate.edu/sites/default/files/2020-03/S-0004-03-Soybean.pdf
Full pod (R4) (Figure 3.10)
At this stage the soybean plant has a pod ¾ inch long (2 cm) at one of the four top nodes on the main stem. Plants
are 28 to 39 inches (71 to 100 cm) tall. This stage is characterized by rapid pod growth and the beginning of seed
development. Pods show rapid growth and dry weight accumulation between R4 and R5. Pods on the lower nodes of
the main stem are full size or close to full size, but most pods will be full size by R5 stage.
At the R4 growth stage, the soybean plant is very susceptible to stress (moisture, light, temperature, nutrient
deficiences, etc). Any major stess occuring anytime from R4 to R6 will reduce yield more than the same stress at
any other period of development. This is because flowering is complete and no new flowers can be produced to
compensate for aborted young pods and seeds under stressful condition.
++++++++++++
From the great state of Ohio:
https://stepupsoy.osu.edu/soybean-production/double-crop-soybean-production-guidelines
Why would you buy if there is a record crop, healthy stocks and meh sales.
1. To cover shorts/take profits?
2. Because these are the lowest prices in several years?
3. South American weather(Brazil or Argentina)?
4. Funds have massive shorts on already?
5. I am NOT recommending going long here, just giving you 4 potentially good reasons that others might use to consider the long side between now and the end of the year.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/soybeans
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cftc-soybeans-speculative-positions-1811
6. Regardless of how late in the year it is, there are still some beans in the R4-R5 stage that will be negatively impacted by the dryness.
Total rains for the next 10 days below from the last 18z GEFS:
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
Good stuff Mike. As usual. Saw this from Karen this morning. If traders think Arg is going to be dry, could be a great reason to buy.
YW, Jim. Thanks for the Argentina stuff!
I wanted to also elaborate on an point of agronomy related to this statement made earlier:
Leaf yellowing starts early in R6. Once the leaves are mostly yellow........weather will no longer impact the yields. If they are mostly green, weather is still important.
Plants use their green leaves to absorb the energy of the sun for photosynthesis.
No leaves = no photosynthesis = no energy = no contributions to yield.
Yellowing leaves are rapidly dying leaves and basically no longer functioning with their intended purpose up to that point. A plant that still has SOME green leaves can still gather SOME energy from the sun but the plant is on the verge of being completely shut down at that point.
Even a hard freeze can't hurt after all the leaves are yellow. In fact, it might help to dry down the moisture content faster so its optimal for harvesting.
++++++++++++++
Make no mistake that its a tough but profoundly import element to harvest soybeans AT THE RIGHT TIME BASED ON MOISTURE CONTENT!!!!
https://cropwatch.unl.edu/managing-soybean-harvest-timing-moisture-improve-yield
What difference does harvesting and selling soybeans at 8% or 9% moisture mean to your bottom line? If you sell soybeans at 8% moisture, you're losing about 5.43% of your yield; at 9% moisture, it's 4.4%; at 10% moisture, 3.3%; at 11% moisture, 2.25%; and at 12% moisture, it's 1.14% yield. For a field that's yielding 75 bushels/acre at 13% moisture, harvesting it at 9% results in selling 3.3 fewer bushels/acre. With soybeans priced at $10/bushel, that's a loss of $33 per acre.
+++++++++++
My knowledge on agronomy has been acquired thru following crops for 3+ decades and studying/learning as a trader and scientist and for fun. This thread is an example of that and the best part is being able to share/discuss it with people like you, Jim!
cutworm and mcfarm, and other producers on the other hand are the SUPER experts. It's been their life.
Hopefully they can chip in with a comment about their profession growing, harvesting and selling corn and beans/crops.
This flash drought and heat wave here in SEIN probably is taking a little off what I would have thought a week ago. Here we are in the pod filling stage. Rain and cooler weather would be preferable.
This is the time when the size of the bean is made, or not. it can easily account for 50% of yield. IMHO
cutworm,
What you say makes complete sense to me.
Losing that much yield, cutworm does that mean your beans are still R5(or even R4)???
When did you plant?
What variety did you plant?
Beans feeling some pressure from rains in IL, the #1 soybean producer and some forecast in IA tomorrow, the #2 state.
however, I still insist that this late growing season dryness, that will continue next week will hurt the beans still in R5, resulting in smaller beans in their pods for enough of the crop to reduce national yields by a bushel or so.
R6 or when most of the leaves are yellow is when the crop is no longer able to perform photosynthesis or divert much plant energy to filling pods and weather no longer has an impact.
look for crop ratings to drop slightly next week and again the week after that.
A shrinking crop size is bullish although it is very late in the season to attract speculative buying on weather.
The Large specs trading crop weather are not very active in late August.
Regardless, beans with green leaves are still active and filling pods!
Never to early to start thinking about our friends in South America. It’s getting close to planting season there and things aren’t looking good.
I might be very wrong about beans not going to $10. Granted, it’s very early, but when SA weather starts becoming traders fixation and it doesn’t get better, $20 could be the next target.
i did a little scouting today
Aug 16th was our last rain 3/4
Field one
planted may 25- no tilled for more than 15 years
39 inches tall
R5 stage
Slight damage from Mexican bean beetles, few aphids not enough to spray for <5% leaf loss
3-7 maturity beans
----------
Field 2
Planted May2 --- tilled ground
45 inches tall
R5 stage
no noticeable bugs
no sign of fungus
This field has a history of SDS very little seen
3-9 maturity
Thanks, cutworm!!
That's the kind of report we couldn't get anywhere else. AWESOME!
Do you always plant the tilled field first if possible from a dry Spring, like this year?
No till first if its been wet?
No till for 15 years, wow. Do you rotate with corn on either field? Would rotating with corn help your SDS problem on the tilled field a bit?
Do you till the other field EVERY year? Why do you think its the one with SDS in the soil?
Does tilling help that by exposing more soil/drying it out more??
Whatever goes first gets the longer season beans, right? Those are your taller plants of course.
Beans use daylight hours to signal flowering.
If you plant super early and the plants are bigger at flowering time, does that usually equate to more pods or higher yields? All things being equal of course.
Don't worry if you miss answering any questions and please chime in with your own thought.
I had a massive garden for 20 years and grew almost everything you can grow around here at least once.
I would fill 3 different bags up with fresh vegs for 3 of my wifes family members from Spring to Fall at least 2 times a month.
When we moved here, there was less space so I got 18 huge drums and filled them up with top soil, sand and peat moss and extended the garden on our black asphalt drive.
The peppers loved the heat. Tomatoes not as much.
I think I had peppers and tomatoes at the start of June that year because the hot asphalt surface surrounding the pots, heated the soil so they were planted in early April.
We've gone 26 days in a row with no rain here in Evansville, IN.
Longest dry stretch in 39 years. Since December 1985/January 1986.
Haven't had the chance to drive outside of this neighborhood during the day over the past week but I'm guessing that alot of our beans are
mm Do you always plant the tilled field first if possible from a dry Spring, like this year?
CW Yes usually because tilled ground warms up faster, dries out earlier.
I try to plant no till as soon as the soil is in condition, but that is almost later. That no till field has also been cover cropped for many years. Some of this field slopes a little more than I like. Hence no till and cover to stop erosion and add organic matter. It is a very slow process to improve soil organic matter. Over 15 years 2.1% to 2.4 now.
MM Do you rotate with corn on either field?
CW yes every other year on tilled field.
Sometimes on no till, I've been using rye or wheat as cover. I don't like to follow that cover with corn. No nitrogen left from the bean crop. Hard to get a cover crop after corn as it is harvested late.
MM Do you till the other field EVERY year? Why do you think it's the one with SDS in the soil?
CW Yes this field is mostly level with good drainage. This field has had SDS many times over the years. SDS is a soil born fungus that can lay dormant for years. Do not know why it did not show up much this year. Maybe the dry June?? also it seems to be worse in good years, but that dosen't jive with this year.
MM Whatever goes first gets the longer season beans, right? Those are your taller plants of course.
CW NO The shorter day 3-7 were picked so maybe can be harvested sooner so cover crop can get a good start.
It works a little different than corn. Some say plant the shorter day earlier because it will have more growth before Flowering. I'm not sold on that. Flowering starts 2-3 days after the solstice. but vegetive growth is still fast at that time.
But for me the verity and maturity are field specific for many reasons.
Also Plant height is not 100% corelated to yield. The difference between nodes, and especially weather during pod fill. I remember a year when we had a long drought. Beans only got knee high. But we caught some rain during pod fill and we were surprised at the yield because the beans were large.
JMHO
Thanks, cutworm!
This is definitely our post of the week!
im going to educated guess that the year you had the drought and short beans that caught August rains that surprised us with decent yields…..was 2012.
i remember it extremely well!
I made a lot of trips between IN to MI that year.
June and July featured intense heat and very little rain.
The beans stopped growing and one could have guessed they were dead looking at so many fields with almost no growth in July, going into August.
There was no flowering when it was time to flower.
Then, the rapidly increasing El Niño completely changed the weather pattern in the eastern corn belt and we had our wettest August/September ever…..normally when we have our driest weather.
The beans were NOT dead they were only dormant and using what little resources were available to just barely hang on.
after the rains hit, it was amazing!
All those short plants came out of dormancy and flowered like crazy. It seemed like even more than usual but maybe because the plants were so short and it was just more dense flowering.
and the rains that triggered robust flowering were followed up by more rains and more rains. Perfect weather to maximize pod setting and filling for the last 5 or 6 weeks of the weather mattering season.
i KNOW that you remember this too, cutworm!
Here's the drought monitor maps for the 2012 growing season that show the soil moisture condition, described on the previous page:
Soil moisture in the Spring of 2012 was great in Indiana into, around mid May.
Then, the "dome of death" parked over much of the Midwest for the next 2.5 months.
First widespread, severe drought of this magnitude since 1988 and the last one since then. The Central and Eastern Cornbelt were hit first!
The drought was peaking in early August 2012 in the Eastern/Central Cornbelt! THEN THE RAINS CAME!!!
+++++++++++++++++++++++
In a month, the areas of Extreme and Exceptional drought in Indiana improved by 2 categories!!
The rains continued in September/October, usually the driest time of year but in 2012, one of the wetter Aug/Sep/Oct periods in history.
Most of the drought in IN and the ECB was wiped out by that wet, late Summer, early Fall period. However, the Plains and NW Cornbelt did NOT see that much rain, including IA, where extreme drought continued.
+++++++++++++
Evidence at this link that if you search long enough on the internet, you're likely to find useful and enlightening information that EXCEEDS your expectations. In this case the Drought Monitor in review for the year 2012 from Spring to the end, visually depicting the story above. I would have preferred they include the Plains too but its still a wonderful graphics display.
I would have never guessed that our area in southwest IN, having exceptional, highest end, cat 5 drought in early August and the beans shut down/dormant, could be brought back to life with a wondrous explosion of flowering, pod setting and pod filling in the nick of time towards the end of the growing season.
https://www.weather.gov/iwx/2012_drought
Beans have finally been paying attention to the dry weather and more dry weather in the forecast.
+39 since the lows on Wednesday,
above $10 now, Jim!
Added this awesome, unexpected graphic find above.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/106521/#107050
Will add too that the drought of 2012 was our only widespread EXTREME drought since 1988, not despite climate change but BECAUSE OF beneficial climate change to the Midwest.
This, after averaging 1 to 2 similar droughts every decade.
Our NEW climate has featured only 1 such EXTREME drought in 34 years.
Much of this is the result of producers altering the growing season environment with tightly packed rows of transpiring corn plants. This adds as much as 10 deg to the dewpoint and results in recirculating moisture that evaporates/transpired from the soil/plants into the atmosphere. IN turn that extra moisture is used to generate additional rains from weather systems and acts to reduce excessive daytime heat…….thats rains out of clouds which replenish soil moisture in a positive feedback loop.
More on that discussed here:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/106574/#107003
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The scientists and politicians predicting widespread droughts and crop failures because of a fake climate crisis got it exactly backwards in the US Midwest.
We have 3+ decades of rock solid proof from observations and the real world that ALWAYS TRUMP SPECULATIVE, BUSTED MODELS and people that cherry pick every weather extreme and always advocate worst case scenario models that are busted .
They are WRONG because of what increased photosynthesis and greening has done THAT IS NOT IN THE MODELS!!!!
Death by GREENING!
41 responses |
Started by metmike - May 11, 2021, 2:31 p.m.
early calls corn plus 4 to 6 and beans plus 14 to 17......man, when ever you really need those numbers to be accurate they screw you everytime
Mcfarm, are you talking about the 8:30 am open this morning?
the big funds jumped in to sell the much higher open, after the overnight traders focused on the dry, late season wx hurting beans.
We saw a 30c+ bounce fro the lows 2 days ago.
the problem is that early harvest is coming up and when we hit the 2nd week of September, I don’t know if beans have ever gone up…..because of harvest pressure expectations.
hows your crop doing, mcfarm?
do you remember 2012?
Beans +19c today with the weather remaining a bullish influence on price for the previous reasoning.
On a personal trading note. It’s almost impossible to stay long on a day trade that features, sudden, random -10c spikes down…..then goes back up and makes new highs.
i attribute this to large speculator algorithm trading. possibly Designed to hit stops of weak positions that only want to risk a small amount of money on their trade.
On a position trade, with wider stops or no stops this has much less, if any impact other than triggering tremendous anxiety while watching the equity in the account take a sudden nosedive.
Beans finished +12c here on September 3, 2024.
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Rains have been deficient in Argentina the last 90 days.....hurting the Winter wheat in the ground(Sept is like March for us). Something to watch for soybean planting.
Beans won't start getting planted for over 2 months in Argentina but next month starts planting in Brazil(warms up sooner).
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Precip_Monitoring/Figures/global/n.90day.figb.gif
https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/countrysummary/default.aspx?id=BR
https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/crop_production_maps/Brazil/Municipality/Brazil_Soybean.png
https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/countrysummary/default.aspx?id=AR
As expected, the soybean condition dropped 2% because of this dry finish to the growing season.
Winter wheat planting has just started(not yet in main producing states), with over 2 months to go......plenty of time to get needed rains.
U.S. corn and soybean crops continue progressing slightly faster than average. #Corn conditions were unchanged this week but #soybeans fell 2 pts. Spring #wheat harvest is 70% complete, an average pace. The 2025/26 winter wheat crop is 2% planted.
Entire crop progress/condition report here:
export umbers were good once again for China and the unknowns for sept 5th
Thanks, mcfarm!
We'll get the 1 day delayed, weekly sales number tomorrow because of the holiday.
Beside the bullish end of weather to our growing season, South American weather appears to be start out dry/bullish but its EXTREMELY EARLY.
Here is a chart of Mato Grosso's soybean planting from state agency IMEA. October is the big month. You can see last year where the dry October abruptly cut down on what was an efficient planting pace.
If it stays dry this month, that will push back planting, possibly helping USA. Early planting in Mato Grosso means early harvest + earlier exports, cutting into the typical U.S. export window. If it stays dry in October, then we need to start talking about possible yield losses.
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Mato Grosso, #Brazil's top state for #soybeans & #corn, can normally expect 1.5-2 inches of rain in Sept, but the forecast is bone dry thru mid-month, likely pushing back soybean planting. Last season (blue line) was among the state's driest ever. Soy yields fell to 8yr lows.
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metmike: Central Brazil sees a monsoonal type weather pattern that features almost no rain in the Winter, then most of their rains during the Sept/Oct. to Mar. growing season.
This was the rain forecast from the last GEFS model run. Not hard to make this forecast ...........0 rain!
@kannbwxJust for fun, I dragged Iowa, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio inside of Mato Grosso, #Brazil. Look how huge it is. Plenty of room to spare!!
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South America Wx and crops
87 responses |
Started by metmike - Dec. 3, 2023, 4:40 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/101013/
Re: Re: Re: South America WX/coffee
One the toughest things for me to do is pick out where Mato Grosso is on a global weather map. This may help you. It's basically between 9 south to 18 south latitude and 60 west to 51 west longitude.
https://www.alamy.com/mato-grosso-red-highlighted-in-map-of-brazil-image363417132.html
No changes in the weather!
Early harvest is right around the corner. Beans almost NEVER go up after this point in September with harvest looming heavy over the market.
Each year is different.
https://www.seasonalcharts.com/future_farmprodukte_soybean.html
I'm shocked that the crop rating did not drop for the soybeans, even with my backyard-itis.
The trade thought -2% and I would not have been surprised at a bit worse.
Maybe the plants didn't deteriorate with regards to their physical appearance but there is NO WAY they did not lose several bushels worth of yield in the many dry to extremely dry spots from the adverse pod filling weather.
Plants may be able to SURVIVE better today with adverse weather because of better hybrids and beneficial CO2 making them drought tolerate but surviving/staying green and filling pods are 2 different things!!!
From yesterday:
Re: Re: Potential for HUGE extremely needed rain event!
By metmike - Sept. 9, 2024, 12:33 a.m.
We are bone dry here. I checked out a soybean field earlier today and found pods that were NOT filling well.
It was still completely green as these hybrid plants, along with beneficial CO2, causes all plants to be drought resistant (less transpiration loss from roots thru stomata on the underside of leaves which don't need to open as wide to capture the elevated CO2 in the air).
However pods are filling right now and the plant needs much more moisture, which is absent in our soil to help maximize the size of the seeds inside the pods.
The seeds inside the pods were mostly pretty small, so the pods were pretty flat on many plants.
Since the plants were all green still, I'm thinking they were planted late and a rain in 5 days can still help.
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The U.S. #corn harvest has begun with 5% completed as of Sunday. Spring #wheat harvest is nearing the finish line but winter wheat planting is still in the early stages. Corn, #soybeans & #cotton development are slightly ahead of the 5yr average paces.
Full report here:
USDA September 12, 2024
Started by metmike - Sept. 12, 2024, 12:15 p.m.
Re: Re: Re: USDA September 12, 2024
By metmike - Sept. 12, 2024, 8:40 p.m.
metmike:SOYBEAN YIELDS WILL COME IN LOWER THAN THIS BECAUSE OF THE FLASH DROUGHT HITTING DURING LATE POD FILLING IN TOO MANY PLACES!!!
Dryness has spread in the central USA over the last eight weeks. Some 66% of the Midwest (the most since mid-March) is now abnormally dry versus 13% in mid-July. Not sure that this has a huge impact on crop yields from here, but it is something to monitor.
The late Sept rains that were shown for North Mato Grosso, #Brazil in Wednesday's midday GFS model run are basically absent in Thursday's run. Thursday's Euro runs showed a hint of much-needed rain possibly starting 10 days from now.
The drought here in the last 1/2 of August and September has come as beans were filling out. I expect that yield prospects here have declined 5,6,7 bushels here from what we were looking at in late July.
JMHO
Exactly, cutworm!
Multiply this by thousands of other farms and its enough to cut into the national yield.
The only way that it doesn't, is if the USDA was 2 bushels too low a month ago and the seriously adverse dry weather/growing conditions for the end of pod filling reduced the real size of the crop down by those 2 bushels of being too low to start with.
Regardless, in the REAL, non USDA/market guessing world, this crop, for sure became SMALLER during the last month of flash drought in so many areas.
The indisputable laws of agronomy rule!!!!!!!
U.S. #wheat export inspections continued at respectable levels last week, though #corn ones were somewhat light and #soybeans were kinda meh. Just one sorghum cargo to China last week.
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NOPA U.S. crush, Aug. 2024:58.008 mln bu of #soybeansBelow all trade estimates (avg = 171.325m)Lowest since Sep 2021; lowest Aug since 2017#Soyoil stocks 1.138 bln lbsBelow all trade ests (avg = 1.356b)Lowest since Oct 2023; lowest Aug since 2004
August crush was expected to be tempered by widespread scheduled maintenance to processing plants, but perhaps that downtime was longer/even more widespread than expected.
The early harvest stages of U.S. #corn, #soybeans & #cotton are ahead of the five-year average paces. Same goes for winter #wheat planting, which is 14% complete. Corn that was behind on development in the northern Corn Belt gained some ground after a warm week.
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Full report:
https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/prog3724.pdf
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I had the chance to drive on country back roads for over an hour yesterday. We took our 2 year grandson to a Upick pumpkin patch and I intentionally took a different way there and back that resulted in a lot of extra driving in the outskirts of this county and the next one to our west.
Some corn, maybe 15%+ has been harvested. Not that unusual around here. No doubt the flash drought caused it to dry down FAST. Several fields of beans have been harvested quickly. If you leave beans out too long after maturity and they dry down below 13%, there can be pod shattering and yield loss. Also low test weights at the elevator.
You need to monitor beans closely to harvest them quickly at the right time.
So this flash drought meant a quick harvest of the early maturing beans after maturity. Incredibly there are still numerous fields with entirely green leaved soybeans (a few next to fields that were harvested already).
I'm guessing these green fields were double cropped beans, planted after the Winter wheat was harvested, possibly as late as early July.
What do you producers think, cutworm, mcfarm??
Timing, measuring, combine adjustments: Tips to reduce soybean harvest losses
