Today, 8-12, is an outside reversal pattern. Will it hold????

Lot of overhead resistance.

What would the fundamental reason be to make the funds cover their extreme short position??? 

Great point and question, cutworm!

1. 1 week.....there's that reversal you were referring to. This is the front month price NOT December which has the most volume and is currently just above $4.

2. 1 month...........

3. 5 years....current price is the lowest in 4 years.

4. 25 years..........since we started using ethanol, $3 has been the lowest price/mega support level.

5. 100 years!!! I'm sure cutworm and mcfarm remember prices starting with a $1 as recently as November 2005!

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/corn

USDA number just too bearish to let the market psychology turn bullish enough for shorts to cover and put in a short term bottom.

Maybe most importantly, rains coming up this week in key areas that will greatly benefit, will INCREASE the size of the crop in the minds of speculators:

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

USDA has record yields for corn.

                USDA August 12, 2024                    

                Started by metmike - Aug. 12, 2024, 1:41 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/106589/

It's too late for the weather to hurt corn much, with the crop pretty much made. However, temperatures can be very important in finishing the crop off.

The filling period can be EXTENDED by an extra couple of weeks with very cool temps(adding yield) or shortened with HEAT FILL.

Here's our best thread for explaining and illustrating this principle:

                HeatFill for Corn                    

                Started by metmike - July 14, 2023, 2:47 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/97257/

+++++++++++++++++++++++

Below average temps are a bit bearish for that reason:

                Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather May 2022           

                            Extended weather.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/

6 to 10 day outlooks

Click below for information about how to read 6-10 day outlook maps  Temperature        Precipitation

Click below for archives of past outlooks (data & graphics), historical analogs to todays forecast, and other formats of the 6-10 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

As of now no new signal.  

No buy signals thios week.  If short stay short, of course with stops in.

Thanks much, baker!

                Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Beans            

                            By metmike - Aug. 26, 2024, 12:21 p.m.            

            Pro Farmer final results:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/106670/#106924

Lastest weather.

Late in the year to impact crops but still slightly BULLISH for beans because of hot/dry in the Southern Midwest(pod filling) and a bit bearish for corn because of upcoming much cooler weather to extend the filling period a few days longer(filling is what determines kernel size- cooler weather slows down maturity, while allowing filling to continue longer)

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/

https://www.yahoo.com/news/corn-sweat-making-midwests-heat-155155230.html

I would think that if the area was all forest that a similar amount of water would transpire. But it might be higher off the ground? 

Great topic, thanks!

We've discussed this several times here(scroll down to the last post)

                Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: :  Droughts not increasing           

                            By metmike - Oct. 6, 2023, 12:26 a.m.            

Scroll down for several posts here:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/99132/#99136

cutworm,

This is a great point on trees also transpiring.

Learning Lesson: Leaf it to Me

https://www.noaa.gov/jetstream/ll-leaf

Discussion

Plant transpiration is generally an invisible process as the water from the exiting the leaves evaporates quickly. The temperature inside the bag will increase with heating from the sun. However, the water vapor will condense back into water as it comes in contact with the bag’s surface.

During a growing season, a leaf will transpire many times more water than its own weight. An acre of corn gives off about 3,000-4,000 gallons (11,400-15,100 liters) of water each day, and a large oak tree can transpire 40,000 gallons (151,000 liters) per year.

The amount of water that plants transpire varies greatly geographically and over time. There are a number of factors that determine transpiration rates:

• The transpiration rate goes up as the temperature goes up, especially during the growing season.
• As the relative humidity of the air surrounding the plant increases, the transpiration rate decreases. It is easier for water to evaporate into dryer air than into more saturated air.
• Increased movement of the air around a plant will result in a higher transpiration rate. If there is no wind, the air around the leaf is still and transpiration raises the humidity around each leaf. Wind moves this saturated air away from the leave, replacing it with less saturated air.
• Plants transpire water at different rates. Some plants which grow in arid regions (e.g. cacti and succulents) transpire less water than other plants as a measure to conserve water.

Shorts would have been stopped out last week.

There was an agressive buy signal Thursday.  But if I was looking to trade it, I would have waited..

To see the early week movements of price.

Karen Braun@kannbwx

3h

Replying to 

@kannbwx

#Corn inspections (proxy for shipments) in Q4 2023/24 were the best in at least 3 years, though #soybeans were similar to a year ago and a bit below recent averages. #Wheat so far in 2024/25 is doing notably better than last year.