The Greens in 2020 elections and beyond
https://www.gp.org/greens_in_2020_elections_and_beyond
Solidarity
By Howie Hawkins
January 15, 2021
The 2020 Green vote is not as low as David Cobb in 2004 (119,859 votes, 0.1%) or Cynthia McKinney in 2008 (161,797 votes, 0.1%). On the other hand, it is a step down from 2016, when Jill Stein received 1,457,216 votes, or 1.1%, under the very different dynamic of an open seat against the two most unpopular major party candidates in polling history.
In 2000, Ralph Nader ran for an open seat against Al Gore, representing the corporate Clinton legacy, and George W. Bush, billing himself as a “compassionate conservative.” Even with his nearly universal name recognition as an accomplished progressive reformer, Nader’s best-ever Green result in 2000 was still only 2,882,955 votes, or 2.7%, from 44 state ballots.
The most difficult campaigns for the Greens have been running with an incumbent right-wing Republican in office, Bush in 2004 and Trump in 2020. Despite the unfavorable dynamic, the 2020 Green vote is in the middle range, hopefully reflecting modest growth in the committed independent left vote over the last decade. The 2020 vote is comparable to the vote that Jill Stein received in 2012 (469,627 votes, 0.4%) running against Barack Obama, who had disappointed many progressives, and Mitt Romney, who presented himself as a moderate country-club Republican. Stein 2012 was on 37 ballots, compared to 30 ballots in 2020. The Green percent of the vote in states where its ticket was on the ballot in both 2016 and 2020 was higher in most states in 2020. This year’s results are also comparable in percentage to the vote (233,052 votes, 0.3%, from 30 ballots) for the 1980 campaign of environmental scientist Barry Commoner for the Citizens Party, which European Greens at the time considered America’s Green Party.
400,000 votes for an independent ecosocialist ticket is a base that can be built upon. However, a Green presidential ticket is unlikely to draw more than a small percentage of the vote until the Greens have become a major political force by electing thousands to municipal office and, on that foundation, to state legislatures and the House. The Greens have won over 1,200 elections over the years and currently have over 100 elected Greens in office. The Greens have proven they can win local races where the party’s community presence and canvassing count more than the money and media of major party candidates. When the Greens have built up their political strength from the bottom up and have a caucus in the House, a Green presidential ticket will draw more support.
