This is worth it's own thread and I don't want to completely bog down the great tropical weather thread that Larry started for us.
To get you up to date on this rain event.
Weather-UPDATED LINKS
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/
Previous post from that link:
I got .05 and the NWS got .04 here on the last Saturday in August after 29 days with 0 in the rain-gauge at Evansville, IN.
This broke the consecutive days with 0 streak but it was only enough to wet the ground and contributed nothing to help us with the FLASH DROUGHT. We have another 2 weeks with no rain coming up. Things are getting really bad here. We'll be spending several hundred $$s more in irrigation the next week+.
I feel certain that this will be in the top 5 for driest stretches in history for us and it could be the driest??? I just can't find records for Evansville, IN right now which go back to before 1900.
The DP is incredibly low and comfortable today, in the 40s but with the strong breeze, this is just drying things out faster. Fortunately, we will see MUCH cooler temps which is part of the problem with this pattern......NO GULF MOISTURE with dry, continental air masses dominating.
This is being caused by the rapidly developing La Nina:
La Nina here we come!
8 responses |
Started by metmike - June 14, 2024, 10:23 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/104931/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/104931/#107114
Note the extremely dry areas from the Eastern Cornbelt, southward!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83853
Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Updated daily below:
https://mrcc.purdue.edu/cliwatch/watch.htm#curMonths
DROUGHT MONITOR
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
Sept 4, 2024 FLASH DROUGHT IN MANY AREAS(thanks to oncoming La Nina)!!!
We are bone dry here. I checked out a soybean field earlier today and found pods that were NOT filling well.
It was still completely green as these hybrid plants, along with beneficial CO2, causes all plants to be drought resistant (less transpiration loss from roots thru stomata on the underside of leaves which don't need to open as wide to capture the elevated CO2 in the air).
However pods are filling right now and the plant needs much more moisture, which is absent in our soil to help maximize the size of the seeds inside the pods.
The seeds inside the pods were mostly pretty small, so the pods were pretty flat on many plants.
Since the plants were all green still, I'm thinking they were planted late and a rain in 5 days can still help.
All the weather forecasts earlier this month were looking at, potentially another 2 weeks of dry weather
That has changed drastically the last 3 days because of what will be the remnants of tropical system, Francine.
This was the updated forecast on Saturday:
Re: Re: Re: AEW in E ATL could be next TC
By metmike - Sept. 7, 2024, 11:41 p.m.
cutworm,
Great stuff by Eric, as always.
The last 12z European model is more bullish on rain chances here at the end of next week:
1. Previous 0z 500 mb forecast for the end of this week.
2. Followed by total rains thru 9 days. for that model from 12 hours ago.
+++++++++++++++++++
3. Last Euro 500 mb forecast for the end of the week. Vorticity pattern is farther north with a small cut off low in extreme southern IL.
4. Rains thru 9 days MUCH farther north by 200+ miles, almost from Indianapolis to Dayton, OH line.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
12z data from the European model
We now have the forecast reasoning to justify making the forecast much wetter at the end of this upcoming week. The Canadian model is even farther north and the last 18z GEFS, for the first time has moved towards this solution..
5. 12z Canadian model
6. GEFS 12z run
7. 18z GEFS model. Rains MUCH farther north.
+++++++++++++++++++++++
6. GEFS 12z run
7. Last GEFS 18z run. Rains much farther north.
Things can move back in the other direction/south again but this is potentially good news to help with the flash drought in the Ohio Valley
Here on Sunday, things are looking ever BETTER!
Re: Re: AEW in E ATL could be next TC
By metmike - Sept. 8, 2024, 9:20 p.m.
In 4+ decades as a meteorologist, I've never been this excited about the potential for the remnants of a tropical system to hit us!!!!!!
Potential for 2 inches of rain to take us out of one of the driest 5+ weeks in history for Evansville, IN.
.05 in our rain gauge since August 1st.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/213729.shtml?cone#contents
This was the forecast from the just out 18z GEFS, by far the most bullish yet for rains here!!!
500 mb heights Friday Noon
This is the 300mb jet stream level from the last 18z GFS run. The remnants of soon to be TS and maybe minimal Hurricane Francine may actually get trapped(or move extremely slow) for a short while close to the Ohio River, with the main jet stream farther northwest and an upper level high to the north.
18z GEFS total rains the next 8 days below. Light blue = 2+ inches up to the Ohio River! Yippee!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83848
7 Day Total precipitation below: NWS
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
Just out 0z GEFS total 1 week rains!
That light blue is 2+ inches, up to Southwest IN! Almost all the areas in sw.OH, s.IN, KY, TN, AL, MS which get these rains will be celebrating for as much as 4 inches(more southern locations) because its been so dry!
E.TX and LA that get more than that and don't need rains will not be as excited. However, the risk for excessive rains is not that great.
Excessive rain threat.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Current Day 1 Forecast
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 2 Forecast |
Day 3 outlook
lot of info to "predict" rain but at this same time last week last Friday was "also Predicted" to be likely and north of 80%. So as the weather goes, we will see.
mcfarm,
I beg to differ with that assessment.
That last cold front had low chances for rain in IN and what rains were forecast, had a very small window to occur because the cold front swept thru quickly.
Below was the configuration of the rain shield which lined up extremely well with the weather model predictions.
You can see the northeast to southwest bands that lined up exactly with the lift ahead of the cold front.
First band hit farther northern IN with some light scat. rains late Thu. Then on Fri afternoon, after the front hit more moisture some heavier scat. rains fired up as the front was exiting IN, along and south of the Ohio River.
https://www.wunderground.com/maps/precipitation/weekly
This system will be TOTALLY DIFFERENT than that.
The rain chances will not be confined to a narrow time frame. The rains will not be light. The rains will not be scattered. The main question is about how far north they will go?
This was the last European model prediction. Like previous guidance, its been going farther north and adds more rain as a result with the system almost stalling. You were on the edge of the rain shield previously but are inside of it now but still this is no guarantee on how far north it will go.
This was the last 6z GEFS. I'm using a different FREE source with better colors but it doesn't have the European model which I get from TrueWeather(paid for). A wonderful source for weather but crappy rain colors above.
do not know about you but our locals at this time last week we exactly for 80% or better....yes as the week wore on things changed of course....they usually do...and as it turns out that 80 plus percent lessened to finally "widely scattered showers"
South America isn’t looking any better.
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/south-americas-rivers-hit-record-lows-brazil-drought-impact-spreads-2024-09-09/
"do not know about you but our locals at this time last week we exactly for 80% or better...'
Actually, mcfarm I can get what your locals stated at this time last week right here.
The CHANCE symbol that they used below represents 30-50% chance of rain.
I was watching alot of forecasts in IN last week but didn't see all of them.
None that I saw ever went above 50%.
Maybe you should find a better weather source
| POP Percent | Contraction |
| 10 percent | Isol (isolated) |
| 20 percent | SChc (slight chance) |
| 30, 40, & 50 percent | Chc or Sct (chance or scattered) |
| 60 & 70 percent | Lkly (likely) |
| 80, 90, & 100 percent | Ocnl (occasional) |
by: Steven Diana
Posted: / Updated:
Thanks, Jim!
We should note, while viewing their graph below that the river almost always bottoms out to its lows of the year in this time frame because of the strong monsoonal climate pattern that dominates.
It's usually just a matter of time before the rains ramp up.
From you article below:
+++++++++
But look at the NORMAL rainfall for this area in green on the graph below. OF COURSE this river falls at this time of year! What happens in October and onward is what counts!
December sees 6 times more rain than September!!!
https://www.climatestotravel.com/climate/paraguay#temperature_rain
Southeast Paraguay gets some rain, as does eastern Argentina the next 2 weeks(Southern Brazil a lot of rain) but the key Summer monsoon rain pattern won't kick into Central Brazil thru that period. Which is not unusual.
Note the uncolored areas of Central Brazil. This is because average rain is close to nothing and that's how much has fallen.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Precip_Monitoring/Figures/global/n.90day.figb.gif
Just out 12z GEFS. Looking great, at least up to the Ohio River. Still promising a bit north of that, let's say Indy to Dayton, OH.
Same forecast. Just out 12z European model below.
You can see the remnants of Francine at 500 mb, first map. Even MORE confidence in it getting TRAPPED underneath the strong upper level high pressure system in the Northeast Great Lakes that blocks it from going northward. The main jet stream is farther west and can't pick it up or steer it.
99% of the time, with an upper level high in that position, it would keep us pretty dry this far north but the well developed and chock full of tropical moisture remnants of Francine will track in the southerly flow into IN. Hurray!
Surface Weather maps for days 3-7 below:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr.shtml
7 Day Total precipitation below: NWS
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
Still looks great(barely) for the southwest corner of IN and southward. However, if the remnants of Francine stalled out farther south, the heavy rains would not make it as far north:
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
++++++++++
This was the last 48 hour computer generated numerical output for Evansville, starting at 10am Thursday. Rain chances start on Thu afternoon and become likely on Thursday night.
Total rains are approaching 2 inches with most of it falling from Thu pm to Friday PM.
You can get the rest of the NWS information for that site from the regional office in Paducah, KY here:
THIS IS OUR CURRENT TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE THREAD:
AEW in E ATL could be next TC
31 responses |
Started by WxFollower - Aug. 26, 2024, 2:27 p.m.
Francine IS going to stall out, with most of its support cut off, and much of the remaining moisture raining out quickly after it reaches its farthest north point.
I have a bit of a concern that the last model runs didn't take Francine as far north as the previous few runs.
This is not good news for Northern Indiana and bad news for the state of Ohio in severe drought but still very hopeful for us in Evansville, close to the KY border.
This was the last forecast from the NWS. They may shift things a bit farther south if the trend continues:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83848
7 Day Total precipitation below: NWS
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
Going to be close to see if the great rains get north of the Ohio River. Amounts have dropped a bit but the north to south rainfall gradient is going to be pretty steep.
Along the path of the rain corridor, a place with lots of rains around .5 could be 100 miles north of places that get 3 inches.
Just out 0z GEFS total rains thru Sunday below:
The latest guidance continues to pull back slightly on the northern extend of the Francine rains.
Evansville is right on the northern edge. Let's hope that there's no more shifts farther south!
This is the just out 12z GEFS:
The GEFS model above is an average of dozens of different solutions of the GFS model, each with a tiny change in a key meteorological parameter which is part of defining the physics of the atmosphere but we can't model with all the perfect equations(calculus).
Its sort of like a person having a very challenging medical condition with uncertainty on how it will progress and using 30 different expert doctors opinions to predict that.........THEN AVERAGE THEIR DIAGNOSIS AND EXPECTATIONS TOGETHER INTO 1 PRODUCT........AN ENSEMBLE.
These were the individual ensemble members below for this last 12z GEFS. You can see the differences and the range between them.
There are a few that don't quite get much rain to Evansville. A few spread the moisture well into Indiana. Those solutions are POSSIBLE. The majority bring in at least an inch of rain to Evansville, which is the most likely outcome.
++++++++++++
Performance studies tell us that the ensemble AVERAGE does best in the long run. It's the most consistent and the most likely. But sometimes, an outlier solution can "see" something that the other solutions don't because that solution has equations that better pick up on the specific dynamics.
Each major model has its own ensemble with dozens of individual members that get averaged together.
Good meteorologists mainly go with the ensemble average but also look at individual members to see the spread/differences to see what is possible and to see what the make up of the average is.
For instance, there would be a huge difference in 2 different ensembles that, let's say both came up with an average value of 1 inch of rain with the following individual members.
1. Ensemble average 1.00" of rain with 90% of the solutions having a value of .8" to 1.2". This give solid confidence that the rains should be close to 1 inch.
2. Same system with an ensemble average of 1.00" of rain but 40% of the members are LESS THAN .5" and 40% are MORE THAN 1.5" and ONLY 20% CLOSE TO THE AVERAGE OF 1 INCH. In this case, the average of 1 inch is LESS LIKELY than the 2 extremes that are much more and much less but average out to something in the middle.
These were the just out 12z Canadian model ensemble members.
The spread is MUCH wider than the GEFS spread.
20% have Evansville missing most of the rain but OVER 50% have the moisture and rains pushing to Chicago and even farther north. This makes the much farther north solution MORE LIKELY than the average (below it) in this case FOR THIS MODEL.
This was the average for all the individual ensembles above.
Each model also has slightly different equations than all the other models, so this is like having an entirely different team of doctors projecting the outcome for the same patients condition.
I note that many meteorologists today, fail to look at all the models and all the ensembles because its incredibly time consuming and it just creates more work. Personally, I think the analysis is fun!
So this is what they do. I especially notice this with most NWS forecasts.
They just take the computer generated numerical guidance from the GEFS model which gives an easy to define/understand, hour by hour prediction for everything to be predicted in a forecast.
In the majority of cases, this product does a pretty good job..........but somebody using it is LIMITING THEMSELVES to not seeing EVERYTHING.
It often misses pattern recognition elements that a seasoned meteorologist can dial in to adjust model bias for certain situations.
This is the current Evansville Forecast:
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=282&y=86&site=pah&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=283&map_y=86
Sunday
A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 80. East southeast wind 5 to 8 mph.
+++++++++++++++
Why did they add thundershowers at EXACTLY 1pm for a forecast 4 days from now that can't possibly pinpoint something like to an exact time??? There it is on the graph below with the small red bars at the bottom right that pop up at 1pm Sunday. So this forecast gives a false impression that the forecaster is able to predict the weather, hour by hour for days..............because they use the computer generated forecast below that goes hour by hour and WILL BE WRONG for the exact time more than right for that exact time.
Within 5 hours of that time frame, for 4 days out, mostly right but not the exact hour. NO WAY!
BTW, the computer generated total rains predicted have DROPPED slightly the last 2 days but still at 1.5"+ for the event which would be mega awesome and at least make a dent in the severe flash drought.
The biggest change on the just out 12z European model(which is the best model) is to shift the(diminishing amounts) rain north thru the entire state of IL to WI. The majority of solutions now show this.
If you remember. Earlier, this was what more than 50% of the Canadian model ensembles did.
So instead of the storm stalling to the south, the blocking HIGH to the north is progged to move to the East Coast and the backside circulation will help steer it to the north.
Latest models don't take as much moisture, northward across the state of IL but we now getting in to the real of NOW casting.
Instead of using forecast models, we use observations of what is actually happening to predict where things are headed!!!
The radar site at Paducah is picking up the northward moving rain bands.
The latest numerical model guidance has Evansville only getting a bit over an inch which is the least amount so far this week.
Rains should start late this evening. There is a chance that they could dry up as the northern periphery hits bone dry air and the upper level, blocking high to the north suppresses northward movement.
There is a chance for the rains to be disappointing, which I would define as anything under 1 inch.
Weather.gov > Paducah, KY
This link below provides some great data. After going to the link, hit "Mesoanalysis" then, the center of any box for the area that you want, then go to observation on the far left, then surface observations to get constantly updated surface observations or hit another of the dozens of choices.
 |
Based on recent trends, I'm going to have to adjust rain amounts down even more.
They started at close to 2 inches early this week and have slowly been dropping since then.........down to just over an inch overnight. Recent trends have me adjusting down below 1 inch of general rains.
There will be a lingering/stalled weakness/moisture in the atmosphere into early next week that will support scattered daily showers and some luckier places could still get over 2 inches.
The NWS, however is still pretty optimistic for more rains than that.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83848
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
+++++++++++++
Evansville Radar picking up on the rains to our south:
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=286&y=82&site=pah&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=286&map_y=81
https://radar.weather.gov/station/kvwx/standard
At least this just out 18z GEFS run has gone back to slightly increasing the rains again vs the prior model 6 hours earlier(and stops the trend of less and less rain). The steep rainfall forecast gradient means a tiny shift/deviation in either direction will mean a huge difference for amounts.
https://www.timeout.com/music/the-25-best-songs-about-rain
++++++++++++
Great songs. They missed some really good ones:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g4flAZEgtjs
+++++++++++++
With our 2 year old grandson, Cyrus in mind:
https://themusicclass.com/blog/10-best-child-friendly-rain-songs-raina
These Francine rains are hitting some extremely dry spots!
We got .7" overnight. Compared to expectations earlier in the week, it's disappointing but all things considered, this was a WONDERFUL, MEANINGFUL rain event.
It could have been worse, considering the surprise fashion in which the rain even unfolded.
There were heavier, 1+ inch rains northeast of us but farther south, a huge corridor of LESS rains. Nashville, TN only got .11!
They were supposed to get over 2 inches on EVERY forecast. This was a shockaroo and my 100,000th lesson on why to never assume anything in a weather forecast like this one
We have some moisture and unstable air around for a couple of days still. Lucky places could get MORE beneficial and extremely welcome rains from scattered, hard to predict cells.
9-13-24: Past 24 hour rains:
https://www.wunderground.com/maps/precipitation/weekly
Rains this weekend look to stay southwest of us. Small chance for a shower late on Saturday.........then another extended period of dry weather that, by late September could feature the drought being even worse than it was before this wonderful rain of .7 blessed us!
Evansville Radar picking up on the rains to our south:
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=286&y=82&site=pah&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=286&map_y=81
https://radar.weather.gov/station/kvwx/standard
Rain forecast for the next 10 days from the just out 6z GEFS. Not promising for our area.
One good thing is that the suns angle is getting lower in the sky and less powerful, along with less intense heat so that we won't dry out nearly as fast as the same situation, when it's June-July-August.
We got .7 inches total from Francine!
Much less than hoped for early in the week but close to the amount expected just before it hit.
Most of the rain along and south of the Ohio River was from Francine. Evansville in in dark blue, with 1+ inches in light green and 2+ inches i darker green.
.7" is much better than nothing!
https://www.wunderground.com/maps/precipitation/weekly
Total precip for the next week/7 days from the last 18z GEFS run.
ZERO rain in the forecast for the entire state of Indiana
Maybe the pattern will become more favorable for rain towards the end of the month???
Weather Map
