Mike, please move this to TR. Thanks.
This one could threaten the US Gulf coast as early as a week from now: 3. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure could form late this weekend or early next week over the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves slowly to the north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through the middle part of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
Thanks a ton, Larry!
We've now passed what has historically been the peak in the tropical weather season.
It can still get very active, especially with record warm ocean water temperatures but not enough for this season to catch up to the forecast for the most extremely active tropical weather season ever.
In fact, we are on course(that can change) to have the biggest Atlantic basin tropical storm forecast season bust in history by and extremely wide margin.
Here's the link to your graphic/statment:
Previous tropical weather thread:
It's crazy that Larry started that one for us over 3 weeks ago when in most years, this is the most active time for tropical storms/hurricanes.
AEW in E ATL could be next TC
36 responses |
Started by WxFollower - Aug. 26, 2024, 2:27 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/106966/
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https://www.kxan.com/weather/2024-tropical-timeline-tracker/
We're over a week past the climatological peak of September 10th.
However there have been MANY major hurricanes, well into October but with time, a month+ from now, that late in the hurricane season the bigger ones shift farther and farther south where the warmer water is.
https://www.trackthetropics.com/hurricane-season-statistics/
0Z:
Euro: E of 12Z, which had hit Mobile 9/29 at 989; 0Z hits Apalachicola 9/29 at 984 mb
GFS: just SE of Panama City late 9/27 at 979
CMC: E LA 9/27 981
ICON: C Gulf moving N 965 9/28
UK: 200 miles SSW of LA/TX border 1000 mb moving NNW late 9/27
0Z Icon/GFS have major H hit on FL Big Bend. Damage would likely go well inland if that occurs.
Thanks, Larry!
NHC up to 70%.
I’ll be in Detroit for my 50 year high school reunion next weekend and on rhe road for an extended period.
very warm waters and rapid intensification are a possibility if other conditions are favorable.
the atmosphere is in La Niña mode even before the official La Niña is declared using lagging, 3 month averages of tropical pacific water temps.
so maybe reduced wind shear.
Up to 80% chance now.
Named Storms
Pretty decent ocean heat content for Helene that could result in rapid strengthening before hitting the Gulf Coast. A hurricane need a minimum temperature of: 26 Deg. C= ~79 Deg. F
29 Deg. C = ~84 Deg. F The entire GOM is at least that warm
30 Deg. C = ~86 Deg. F There are some pockets in the GOM that warm.
These warm waters go pretty deep which means hurricane churning won't be able to pull up cooler water that can help limit a hurricanes strengthening.
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/usatlant.fc.gif
No changes this morning, except models slow it down a tad. Maybe a cat. 3 with 115 mph winds at peak intensity.
Currently moving at 30 knots or almost 35 mph, which is really moving for a topical system in the GOM.
This WILL mean the effect below will be even more amplified on the right side of this hurricane, which will see the forward speed ADDED to the hurricane's wind circulation speed.
At the surface, the Right side of the hurricane will have winds of 30+ mph HIGHER than the winds circulating around the hurricane Because the flow on the right side is in the same direction as the forward speed.
the forward movement of Helene is 35 mph. This applies to all low pressure systems With their counterclockwise flow in the northern hemisphere.
its in the opposite direction in the southern hemisphere.
So a 90 mph wind around Helene can become a 125 mph wind at the surface on the right side if it were still traveling that fast at landfall. Frictional forces closest to the ground will, as always quickly become a drag on the strongest winds.
https://www.unidata.ucar.edu/data/NGCS/lobjects/chp/structure/
Here's another graphic depicting that principle:
Hello Tropical Storm Helene, soon to be Hurricane Helene!
Thanks to Larry for tipping us off about this storm last week!
The size of this hurricane will be very large. Ocean heat content is very high, supporting RAPID intensification if other conditions remain optimal and Helene could be a MAJOR hurricane in 48 hours.
noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/154152.shtml?3-daynl
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/241459.shtml?
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/154152.shtml?cone#contents
Currently at 60 mph. Should be a hurricane on Wednesday morning.
Top strength at 120 mph on Thursday evening!
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/250256.shtml?
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/213745.shtml?cone#contents
Hello Hurricane Helene! 80+ mph. Forecast to 125 mph late Thursday.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/251457.shtml?
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/152934.shtml?cone#contents
Helene is expected to move through/over an environment of relatively low shear, strong upper-level divergence, and sea surface temperatures of 29-31 degrees Celsius, all of which should foster additional strengthening. Rapid Intensification (RI) indices indicate a high chance of RI during the next 24 hours, and as a result the NHC intensity forecast shows Helene becoming a major hurricane by Thursday morning.
29-31 Deg. C = 84-88 Deg. F
These are the temps of the water that the NHC stated are along the path of Helene.
To be a hurricane, we need 79 Deg. F. Temps that are as warm as they are now, will be favorable for rapid intensification if all the other factors are ideal..........and they appear to be.
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/usatlant.fc.gif
The right side of this hurricane(right front quadrant) is going to see winds increased by the forward speed of Helene which is around 11 mph. On the same side, the water will be piling up to create the greatest storm surge. It's why this side is referred to as the "DIRTY SIDE" of the hurricane.
The illustration below is for any hurricane and extremely coincidental to the location close to Helene
https://www.unidata.ucar.edu/data/NGCS/lobjects/chp/structure/
We can start tracking the northern fringe of the hurricane. This will get very impressive the next 24+ hours. Hoping I have the link that updates every 6 minutes. If not, you can hit the link for the latest.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=18
This was Hurricane Helene (frozen image) about to make landfall in the Big Bend area shortly after 11:30 pm EDT. Winds were 140 mph!
Up to 85+ mph. Ocean temps up around 86 degrees, so rapid intensification likely. Peaking at ~130 mph around tomorrow at this time.
Helene at 90+ mph.
115+ mph later today.
The spacing in the isobars is so close that the lines are really packed together! 105 MPH+ right now.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/107518/#107683
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EXCELLENT LIVE SOURCE RYAN HALL Y'ALL:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XTnlp7qrTYg
https://www.npr.org/2024/09/26/g-s1-24643/hurricane-helene-tallahassee-tampa-atlanta-florida-georgia
Winds at 125 mph at 4pm Central. Movement is at 24 mph, so areas on the right side of the hurricane will see that speed added to the winds. There should be several hours of additional strengthening.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/262043.shtml?
Data updated every 6 minutes.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/107518/#107683
This was Hurricane Helene (frozen image) about to make landfall in the Big Bend area shortly after 11:30 pm EDT. Winds were 140 mph!
Snapshot of the remnants of Helene just after 10am on Saturday:
You can get the most updated versions by going here:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83845
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https://www.wunderground.com/maps/wind/current-winds
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Go to the link/map below and you can hit the individual states to see a breakdown for the individual counties in that state.
Below these maps, you will find an updated, exact number for each individual country!!
Helene down to 45 mph and becoming extratropical.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/271436.shtml?
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents
