Israel/Lebanon
17 responses | 0 likes
Started by joj - Sept. 21, 2024, 9:06 a.m.

I asked my brother, who has lived in Israel since 1981, how he answers people when they ask him about the Middle East.  Here was his response.  


I have many answers, the short one, the long one, the one for Jews who know something, the one for non-Jews who are curious because of the news. The ones that start on October 7th, the one that starts in 2005 with the withdrawal from Gaza, the one that starts in 1967, 1948, and 1881......biblical King David....


But about the immediate news about the tension on the Lebanese border: Even though all eyes have been on Israel's conflict with Hamas, for the past year, Israel has been under attack from Hizbollah, which basically controls southern Lebanon and has something like 100,000 missiles pointed at the entire country. It's clear that Israel is going to invade Lebanon to get rid of this threat, just not clear when. My version of this is, imagine if instead of a nice democracy, Canada was a failed country completely dependent on and allied with Iran (or North Korea or something) and every time the U.S. had tension with any other country in the world, Canada used the opportunity to attack the US with missiles. Eventually, the US would invade Canada. It would be a mess, but nobody in this country would claim that it was insane and unwarranted. Now imagine if the entire world, including NATO, rose up in anger and boycotts when the U.S. invaded Canada, having never said anything about Canada attacking the U.S.


Comments
By metmike - Sept. 21, 2024, 1:24 p.m.
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Thanks very much for sharing that, joj!

You already know that I agree with you/Israel on this one:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/107449/#107533

I also spent many dozens of hours studying the history of the Middle East right after the horrific Oct. 7, 2023 attacks and understand pretty well why each side believes what they do. 

Positions today are based on how one wants to view the long history/past based on A, B, C, D, E, F, G and more.  Each event/situation, is often a reaction to previously existing conditions, which were caused by previous events/conditions.

Both sides interpret the same conditions/events in a diametrically polar fashion and with fatally flawed bias towards THEIR side. 

As somebody that came from one mindset for 6 decades, I understand that side extremely well and just like I was very sincere about having that mindset for so long, I know that's the case for others and the reasoning for it is very rational based on THAT INTERPRETATION. Just because I changed my view, doesn't mean that I don't completely understand the justification of it by those that still have that view.

Stating that is not intended to demonstrate that metmike is now an enlightened expert as much as to show how extraordinarily complicated and impossible the situation is from bipolar generational indoctrination which is impossible to reverse. The best case scenario, at least in the short term seems to be managing it and to minimize actions which AGGRAVATE AND ESCALATE the adversity/tensions.  Ending the war in Gaza is the BEST way to do that.


Which brings us to the exploding electronic devices.

My first thought was..........."oh crap, just another incident which will escalate the fighting in the Middle East!" 

And it will do that.

But each action/event/situation should be viewed independently from the war in Gaza as well as knowing the war in Gaza is providing tremendous incentive for the Arab World to ramp up attacks on Israel. For 90% of the world to be condemning Israel. 

The independent view of these clever electronic device explosions against Hezbollah, for me is as follows:

1. Hezbollah, for many years has planned to hurt Israel as much as possible. Ideally destroy them.  Well before Oct. 7, 2023. This establishes a clear justification for Israel to defend itself.

2. How we interpret defending itself is tricky. I strongly denounce what Israel is doing in Gaza as "Israel defending itself"  

3. In this case, it's MUCH different because of the dynamics that make Hezbollah an EXTREME AND IMMEDIATE THREAT!  We know with certainty that Hamas is no immediate threat to Israel right now and obliterating decimating 2 million people, mostly children and women is supposedly eliminating a long term "potential" threat.  

4. These devices were Hezbollah, attack and destroy Israel devices to me. You can say that they were defensive and trying to keep Israel from attacking them or killing them by tracking them with their cell phones............but there's that tricky interpretation thing based on what side that you're on. 

5. We should make no mistake what Hezbollah's mission is with regards to Israel. That by itself lends some free reign to Israel in doing whatever it can to STOP HEZBOLLAH from accomplishing its mission. 

6. If not for the Gaza war, Hezbollah would not be ramping up the attacks. This is true and a huge reason to stop the war in Gaza but this DOES NOT justify Hezbollah to use THAT  war to help fullfill its objective to destroy Israel even sooner. 

7. Lots of innocent people were injured with the pager explosions. JUSTIFIED, COLLATERAL DAMAGE!

8. This will, for sure escalate the conflict between Israel and Lebanon.  So be it. If Hezbollah wasn't using these electronic devices to assist in going undetected with their plots for the demise of Israel, then Israel wouldn't have needed to blow them up. 

9. I have to admit to being extremely impressed by the technological and strategic brilliance of this move. We discussed this before about me admiring this trait which is so prevalent in so many Jews, which also makes them some of the best chess players in the world. I've been a scholastic chess coach to almost 5,000 students  the past 3 decades.

10.  At the same time, I feel that in Gaza they are ABUSING this exact same advantage to collectively punish less fortunate, less technologically advanced  people that cannot defend themselves (in horrific, long lasting, unjustified and sustained fashion) based on ethnic superiority. 


By joj - Sept. 21, 2024, 2:26 p.m.
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1) Hezbollah began firing rockets at civilians in northern Israel on October 8th, before a single Palestinian in Gaza died.


2) You went from 40,000 to 2 million pretty quickly. A 50 fold jump.

I’m in favor of a ceasefire even though it leaves Hamas in power.  But would America accept that from a terror group in Canada?

By metmike - Sept. 21, 2024, 2:57 p.m.
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2) You went from 40,000 to 2 million pretty quickly. A 50 fold jump.


Thanks, joj.

 I have been at 2 million people from the get go. 40,000 is the death count. 2 million is the number living in Gaza being decimated(use whatever verbiage you want). Sorry if I confused you with obliterated.

My wife actually corrected me one time  recently on using it this way too. Maybe I should use a different term to avoid the confusion. I'll change it permanently to DECIMATE.

                Re: Re: New war with Israel                        

                By metmike - Aug. 31, 2024, 11:24 a.m.        

    

"Almost total destruction of homes, schools, medical facilities/hospitals......etc.  Deprivation of water, food, medical treatment/supplies (other than Polio vaccinations), sanitation, electricity.  The number of innocent people living in Gaza being obliterated is 2,000,000+. How many are being impacted? Almost 100%!"



decimate

https://www.dictionary.com/browse/decimate

  • to kill or destroy a great number or proportion of:
    The population was decimated by a plague.
  • to cause to suffer great loss or harm:
    The constant eruptions that spewed forth decimated the forest and turned it to ash.
By joj - Sept. 21, 2024, 7:59 p.m.
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You say 100% of the 2 million Gazans have been “impacted”. I would say that a harsher word is called for.  Decimated?  Not that harsh

By metmike - Sept. 22, 2024, 3:58 a.m.
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Thanks, joj!

I don’t know if there will be perfect verbiage for us to agree on here. Especially since our difference of opinion is as wide as the Grand Canyon on the use of the word genocide p, which I feel strongly, is completely justified and you feel strongly that it’s overkill.

I have a tendency in some situations to be an overkill communicator but if somebody objects, I’ll use it to fact check myself and immediately, either appreciate theyemade a good point and learn something  with an adjusted view included orrrr, show solid evidence to justify the statememts.

in this case, it applies to my overkill use of the word obliterate.

i looked  up the definition and the people of Gaza, if all being obliterated, should all be dead, so you and my wife  are right.

There are other words for genocide, like ethnic cleansing but I’ll stick with genocide based on the objective authorities and accept our differences as not resolvable. 

Since it’s the same exact event being described in Gaza with my revised term, decimate and you also seem unhappy with that one too, I’ll chalk that up to the same Grand Canyon wide difference of opinion.

By joj - Sept. 22, 2024, 6:11 a.m.
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As is typical here on MF we end up talking about anything but the main points of my post.  I guess I'm to blame on this one for following you down the rabbit hole of word definitions.

By metmike - Sept. 22, 2024, 10:42 a.m.
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Thanks, joj!

I used it to try to learn something new while discussing YOUR topic(s) and responding to YOUR points! At least with an adjustment to an often used term(inappropriately)  that was confusing to a poster that matters here. 

https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/obliterate

obliterate (third-person singular simple presentobliterates, present participleobliterating, simple past and past participleobliterated)

  1. (transitive)
    1. To destroy (someone or something) completely, leaving no trace; to annihilate, to wipe out.
Synonyms: bedash, do away with, eradicate, extirpate, raze, uproot; see also Thesaurus:destroy

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https://www.dictionary.com/browse/decimate

, dec·i·mat·ed, dec·i·mat·ing.

  1. to kill or destroy a great number or proportion of:
    The population was decimated by a plague.
  2. to greatly reduce in number or amount:
    From 1975-1981, our country was not driving the space exploration agenda, and our aerospace workforce was decimated.
  3. to cause to suffer great loss or harm:
    The constant eruptions that spewed forth decimated the forest and turned it to ash.

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                Re: Israel/Lebanon                                                         

                By metmike - Sept. 21, 2024, 1:24 p.m.            

3. In this case, it's MUCH different because of the dynamics that make Hezbollah an EXTREME AND IMMEDIATE THREAT!  We know with certainty that Hamas is no immediate threat to Israel right now and obliterating decimating 2 million people, mostly children and women is supposedly eliminating a long term "potential" threat.  

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What does rabbit hole mean?

https://www.dictionary.com/e/slang/rabbit-hole/

On the internet, a rabbit hole frequently refers to an extremely engrossing and time-consuming topic.


Israel/Lebanon
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By metmike - Sept. 23, 2024, 12:27 a.m.
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Hezbollah hits back with rockets as it declares an ‘open-ended battle’ with Israel

https://apnews.com/article/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-news-09-22-2024-fb1aa8ae061885ba86855f7fe9ec5be7

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I was worried this would happen and in fact, it was almost inevitable.

Making me rethink the previous position supporting the clever pager attack.

The bottom line is that until the unjustified war in Gaza ends, it will continue to serve as a trigger/excuse for additional escalations elsewhere. Now, this one has a life of its own and can sustain itself based on events happening OUTSIDE OF GAZA.

Ending the Gaza war atrocities will not result in lasting  peace in the Middle East (which seems impossible)  but it will reduce the magnitude of conflicts elsewhere. Save many lives.

It will reduce the widespread increase in global antisemitism.

It will greatly reduce the outrage of 90% of the world which condemns Israel.

It will halt the worsening,  colossal credibility crisis that the country of Israel is suffering from on a global scale.

It will stop the drain to Israels resources and save lives of Jews living in Israel and fighting in the wars.

It will make it safer for Jewish people in Israel and elsewhere.

Not a perfect solution but for sure, what Netanyahu is doing is almost exactly wrong and is making it worse...........and it can still get much worse if this continues but stop getting worse if it stops.

These reasons above, which Netanyahu ignores because self serving interests drive him mean that he MUST GO!

He's determined to stay in power more than he's motivated by anything else. The United States must stop enabling and supporting him. ..........but they won't do that because we have so many like minded, corrupt politicians,  bought and paid for by the military-industrial complex and other powerful lobbyists and coalitions.


Jewish Dem, Bernie Sanders has been exactly right from the get go:

PREPARED REMARKS: Sanders Delivers Speech on his Intent to File Joint Resolutions of Disapproval to Block $20 Billion Arms Sale to Israel

https://www.sanders.senate.gov/press-releases/prepared-remarks-sanders-delivers-speech-on-his-intent-to-file-joint-resolutions-of-disapproval-to-block-20-billion-arms-sale-to-israel/

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   'Very Bad Sign for Democracy': AIPAC Has Spent Over $100 Million on 2024 Elections    

AIPAC's billionaire-funded super PAC has helped defeat two of the most vocal opponents of Israel's assault on the Gaza Strip.

https://www.commondreams.org/news/aipac-100-million

 

By metmike - Sept. 23, 2024, 10:43 a.m.
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It's not good   

Egypt fears ‘all-out’ regional war, blames Israel for stances vs Hamas, Hezbollah

Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty says at UN headquarters that the flareup between Israel and Hezbollah has harmed ceasefire-hostage talks, slams Jerusalem’s ‘provocative policies’

https://www.timesofisrael.com/egypt-fears-all-out-regional-war-blames-israel-for-stances-vs-hamas-hezbollah/


Israel bombs Lebanon live: 182 killed, 727 wounded in Israeli attacks

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/9/23/israel-hezbollah-conflict-live-new-air-strikes-target-lebanon

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So sorry for everybody, including my Jewish friends here that didn't cause this but have to witness it and emotionally suffer from it, regardless of differing opinions.

I've already made it very clear how I feel about the horrific Palestinian suffering and that has not changed 1 iota!

                Poll of Israelis and Palestinians            

                                 Started by joj - Sept. 16, 2024, 8:38 a.m.    

        https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/107449/


New war with Israel                                         

                Started by metmike - July 28, 2024, 8:29 a.m.     

       https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/106237/

By metmike - Sept. 23, 2024, 10:57 a.m.
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1) Hezbollah began firing rockets at civilians in northern Israel on October 8th, before a single Palestinian in Gaza died.

joj,

I realize that I didn't remind you that I had already addressed that as my #1 point in the previous post that you must not have read entirely or had decided on from a pre conceived bias of what you think that my views are. 

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/107560/#107563

"The independent view of these clever electronic device explosions against Hezbollah, for me is as follows:

1. Hezbollah, for many years has planned to hurt Israel as much as possible. Ideally destroy them.  Well before Oct. 7, 2023. This establishes a clear justification for Israel to defend itself."


By metmike - Sept. 23, 2024, 7:15 p.m.
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Sadness and dread as the next Lebanon war looms

The law of unintended consequences has always played a role in conflicts in the Middle East.

 

“We’ve seen this movie before.” People often say that about wars in the Middle East, but it isn’t true. Each one is a unique catastrophe, with its own combination of horrific causes and effects. Every innocent child that dies during these wars is a human soul that will never be replaced.

I’ve been covering the Middle East for nearly 45 years, and I’ve grown to hate these wars and the immense suffering they bring to both Israelis and Arabs. It’s like watching people trapped as a violent hurricane approaches. Each time, you hope they can escape and disaster can be averted. But too often, they can’t.

The spillover of the Gaza war into Lebanon this month might have seemed inevitable, but it wasn’t. This was a war that both sides had hoped to avoid. The Biden administration, knowing the terrible cost, has been trying to find an exit ramp for 11 months. But the hard logic of war proved stronger than the soft logic of peace. Hezbollah wouldn’t stop firing rockets; Israel wouldn’t stop retaliating. The two sides moved up the ladder — and the United States couldn’t stop them.

Many people feel a moral obligation to choose sides in these wars. I’m a journalist, and it’s part of my job to talk to all the combatants, if I can. But that doesn’t mean I don’t have opinions. I think Hamas rule has been a tragedy for Palestinians in Gaza and an intolerable menace for Israel. I think Hezbollah is a terrorist group that kidnapped Lebanon and has the blood of hundreds of Americans on its hands.

But I’ve seen Israel make some recurring mistakes, as well. Those are agonizing to watch if, like me, you think of Israel as an outpost of democracy in the Middle East and, in the words of the prophet Isaiah, “a light unto the nations.”

What I’m watching now in Lebanon is hauntingly similar to what I saw in 1982 as a young reporter in Beirut covering the Israeli invasion that year. The problem, then as now, was overreach. Israel wanted to go to the root, to crush its chief adversary at the time, the Palestine Liberation Organization. No more halfway measures; use every weapon in the arsenal.Israel had dazzling military and intelligence dominance back then, just as it does now. Its troops reached the suburbs of Beirut in days. But then what? Israel’s overwhelming power masked a strategic weakness: Its leaders didn’t have a good answer to the question, “Tell me how this ends.” The siege of Beirut continued until a U.S. mediator finally negotiated an exit for PLO leader Yasser Arafat and his fighters. Israel was caught in what turned out to be a quagmire.

I had the good fortune at the time to be able to talk with Israeli leaders, such as Prime Minister Menachem Begin, as well as Palestinian officials. The last time I visited with Begin was in August 1983, after the war in Lebanon had soured. I described the Israeli leader as “the lion in winter,” brooding about the casualties in Lebanon and the trauma the war had brought to his people.

“The truth is that he is sad,” explained Yehiel Kadishai, Begin’s personal secretary and colleague since the days of the Irgun underground. “He is a person who can’t show a laughing face when there is sadness in his heart.” Aides explained that Begin asked to be briefed each day on the latest casualty figures from Lebanon and the families of each Israeli soldier who had died. He cherished Israel, but friends told me that in his depression, he feared that he had left it weaker.

The scourge of Hezbollah has a special meaning for me, too. I visited the U.S. Embassy in Beirut on April 18, 1983, and left about half an hour before a terrorist car bomb demolished the building. Most years since then, I exchange messages with the embassy official who escorted me to the elevator that day. She emailed me last week, after an Israeli airstrike killed Ibrahim Aqil, one of the Iran-backed terrorists who plotted the embassy bombing that day. Suffice to say, she doesn’t grieve for Aqil’s loss.

We talk often about unintended consequences of war. And the hideous truth is that the very existence of Hezbollah was in some ways a result of the 1982 Israeli invasion. By driving the PLO from Beirut, Israel removed the main check against Shiite militia power. The cadres of what became Hezbollah began to assemble almost immediately — with Iran’s covert backing. Over the next 40 years, Hezbollah forced the nation of Lebanon into submission.

Hasan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, was another of the unlikely cast of characters I interviewed over the decades. He was not the stereotypical villain. In answering my questions, he was clever, nimble, sometimes teasing. He seemed intrigued by the idea of talking with an American, as though it were a novelty.

But what I remember most was the intense security screening before the interview. His bodyguards disassembled my pens, my notebooks, the contents of my wallet — looking for a hidden Israeli bomb or surveillance device. Thank God this was in the days before pagers. The neighborhood where I met Nasrallah, in the Dahiya, or southern suburbs, of Beirut, has been pounded by Israeli airstrikes this past week.

Memory is supposed to provide clarity, but it can also be a fog. You think you know where you’re going, but when sudden events strike, they obliterate the past and all you see is the present — and the need to act. And then, you’re somewhere you never intended to be.

I wish I had answers to the questions that haunt all of us as we watch the Middle East shattered by an ever-widening war. The only things that seem clear to me are that total victory is an illusion in this conflict, and that security is essential.

Opinion by  David Ignatius writes a twice-a-week foreign affairs column for The Washington Post. His latest novel is “Phantom Orbit.” follow on X @ignatiuspost

By metmike - Sept. 23, 2024, 7:20 p.m.
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This is what the war has looked like in Gaza:

                Re: Re: Re: The horrific Genocide ramps up                      

                By metmike - Feb. 25, 2024, 7:33 p.m.   

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I share the profound sadness of the experienced reporter from the previous page.........for both sides.        

By metmike - Sept. 24, 2024, 1:35 p.m.
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Former CIA chief Panetta calls mass detonation of Hezbollah pagers ‘a form of terrorism’

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/former-cia-chief-panetta-calls-mass-detonation-of-hezbollah-pagers-a-form-of-terrorism/

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Despite my inclination to want to justify this, he makes legit points.

By metmike - Sept. 24, 2024, 10:27 p.m.
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Israel trades strikes with Hezbollah as Lebanon reels after deadliest day since 2006  

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-09-24-24-intl-hnk/index.html

++++++++++++++++                                                                                     

  Douglas Macgregor Warns: Nato Vs Russia, US Vs Iran! BIG WARS Are About To Break Out In NEAR Future 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hva9ijfPVyw 

By metmike - Sept. 24, 2024, 10:58 p.m.
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Hezbollah is not Hamas. Can Israel afford another all-out war?  

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/24/middleeast/israel-second-war-hezbollah-cost-intl/index.html



 

        An economy in decline

                Israel’s economy has been one of the biggest casualties of the war in Gaza, taking a sharp blow from the early days of the October 7 attack. Thousands of businesses suffered as reservists abandoned their civilian lives to take up arms, and the country’s economy is shrinking at an alarming rate.        

            “It’s devastating on the Israeli economy, on Israeli society,” Guzansky said, adding that the impacts will live on for years to come.  Of all 38 nations in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Israel showed the sharpest economic slowdown between April and June of this year, the organization said in its quarterly report.            According to OECD data, Israel’s economy shrank by 4.1% in the early months of the war, and continued to contract, albeit at a slower rate, throughout the first and second quarters of 2024.    

        A legitimacy crisis    

            A second front, especially one that could be far more damaging to Lebanon than to Israel, could be the final straw for many countries already critical of Israel’s war in Gaza, experts said.        

            The global sympathy that Israel received in the immediate aftermath of the October 7 attack has turned into sharp criticism due to Israel’s devastating reaction, as it now faces accusations of war crimes and genocide in international courts, which it strongly denies.   Domestically, while Israelis showed a greater appetite for fighting at the outset of the Gaza war, polls show that domestic support has waned over the last months.  On support for a war with Hezbollah, Israelis appear split on the matter.       

            A survey published by the Israel Democracy Institute think tank in July found that 42% of Israelis think their country should pursue a diplomatic agreement with Hezbollah, despite the chances of an additional conflict in the future, while 38% think Israel should pursue a military victory against the group, even at the cost of significant damage to civilian areas.       Despite the split in opinion, there is now less support for war with Hezbollah compared to responses in late 2023, the poll said.   

By metmike - Sept. 26, 2024, 5:37 p.m.
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By metmike - Sept. 27, 2024, 7:20 p.m.
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Netanyahu defies calls for ceasefire at UN as Israeli missiles target Beirut

To half-empty chamber, Israeli PM says his country ‘seeks peace’ but will continue ‘degrading’ Hezbollah

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/27/we-are-winning-benjamin-netanyahu-defies-calls-for-a-ceasefire-in-un-speech

Netanyahu responded by denouncing the UN as an “antisemitic swamp”, and insisted that Israel was committed to military victory. “We are winning,” he said, adding that since the Hamas-led attacks on 7 October, Israel had shown that “if you strike us, we will strike you”.

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He's clearly right about one thing:

 Re: Re: Re: The horrific Genocide ramps up                      

                By metmike - Feb. 25, 2024, 7:33 p.m.   

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Israel is winning the MILITARY BATTLE using its superior, much more advanced technological advantages. But its losing MUCH, MUCH more in every other realm. 

Is Israel better off today than it was a month ago? Were things better a month ago compared to the month before that? or 6 months before that? Or a year ago? Or 10 years ago?

The answer is NO! NO!! NO!!! NO!!!! and NO!!!!!

And there's absolutely no reason to think that this will change as Netanyahu pursues the exact same strategy and path!!!!!!

The real questions are:


How long before the charismatic psychopath destroying Israel's future is finally booted?

How bad will this get for Israel before that happens?

For those continuing to support him and his actions, what is the end game?

Gaza has had no ability to fight back or do any harm to Israel for most of the war but he continues to win by decimating 2 million people, dishing out collective punishment out of hatred, revenge and ethnic superiority.......on  mostly innocent people and most of those are children and women. 

I get that "Israel has the right to defend itself"  but how many of these victims (and the numbers are 1,000 times more than the images below illustrate) were posing a threat to Israel?

Re: Re: Re: The horrific Genocide ramps up 

How about ALMOST NONE OF THEM!

Rage, Revenge and Ethnic Superiority are the traits that most characterize Netanyahu's ruling mentality as he imposes his vast military and technological advantages on anybody that HE decides is the enemy.

Some really are his enemy, many are completely harmless(Gaza). 

His supporters are missing the most profound part of this and why things keep getting WORSE not BETTER.

Netanyahu is INCREASING his enemies MUCH, MUCH FASTER THAN HE'S ELIMINATING THEM AND AT GREAT COST TO HIS COUNTRY.

Continually blaming any critics of being antisemitic is getting increasingly lame and ineffective.

I was extremely pro Israel my entire life, thru October 7, 2023 and shortly after that.

I still love the Jewish people but I have a contingency for being pro Israel........

ONLY AFTER NETANYAHU IS GONE AND HIS MENTALITY FOR RULING IN ISRAEL ENDS!

I wouldn't expect anything less from my own country!!