Had this article pop up on me today.
Thanks much Jim,
Yes, sadly Ohio has been hit the HARDEST by this drought!
+++++++++++++
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Beans
By metmike - Sept. 16, 2024, 5:29 p.m.
Full report:
https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/prog3724.pdf
Incredibly, these are the ratings in OH:
Corn: 41% Good to Excellent and only 25% Poor/Very Poor!
Beans: 40% Good to Excellent and on 28% Poor/Very Poor!
+++++++++++++
This is why I posted the following message to cutworm, who is just west of the IN/OH border:
By cutworm - Sept. 13, 2024, 7:22 a.m.
The drought here in the last 1/2 of August and September has come as beans were filling out. I expect that yield prospects here have declined 5,6,7 bushels here from what we were looking at in late July.
JMHO
By metmike - Sept. 13, 2024, 12:42 p.m.
Exactly, cutworm!
Multiply this by thousands of other farms and its enough to cut into the national yield.
The only way that it doesn't, is if the USDA was 2 bushels too low a month ago and the seriously adverse dry weather/growing conditions for the end of pod filling reduced the real size of the crop down by those 2 bushels of being too low to start with.
Regardless, in the REAL, non USDA/market guessing world, this crop, for sure became SMALLER during the last month of flash drought in so many areas.
The indisputable laws of agronomy rule!!!!!!!
Previous info/posts that help illustrate the significance of this ENORMOUS problem, which "decimated" yields in the driest places:
By metmike - Sept. 12, 2024, 8:48 p.m.
Re: Re: Re: USDA September 12, 2024
By metmike - Sept. 12, 2024, 8:40 p.m.
metmike: SOYBEAN YIELDS WILL COME IN LOWER THAN THIS BECAUSE OF THE FLASH DROUGHT HITTING DURING LATE POD FILLING IN TOO MANY PLACES!!!
Dryness has spread in the central USA over the last eight weeks. Some 66% of the Midwest (the most since mid-March) is now abnormally dry versus 13% in mid-July. Not sure that this has a huge impact on crop yields from here, but it is something to monitor.
+++++++++++++++++++
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather May 2022
By metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:46 p.m.
Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Updated daily below:
https://mrcc.purdue.edu/cliwatch/watch.htm#curMonths
DROUGHT MONITOR
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
September 17, 2024 Below
By metmike - Sept. 20, 2024, 11:47 a.m.
New product that shows how depleted our soil moisture is.
100 cm = 39 inches =just over 3 feet down. Evansville is in the darkest shade of red.
Basically, close to the lowest soil moisture ever in the top 3 feet. We can see how Francine greatly helped areas just barely south of us a week ago.
https://www.drought.gov/data-maps-tools/nasa-sport-lis-soil-moisture-products
+++++++++++
All the comprehensive weather:
Weather-UPDATED LINKS
74 responses |
Started by metmike - April 30, 2022, 8:01 p.m.
We're almost as bad off as you, Jim!
Potential for HUGE extremely needed rain event!
35 responses |
Started by metmike - Sept. 9, 2024, 12:05 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/107280/
+++++++++++
But help is on the way, especially for us!
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
This is the freeze frame forecast for 10am Sunday. Use the link above for updates after that.
Latest national radar, constantly updated
https://www.eldoradoweather.com/radar/national-doppler-radar-full-resolution.html
Jim McCormick with AgMarket.Net, says the pickup in sales is not just on new crop bushels.
"Its also hedge pressure from the old crop as producers continue to empty out what's left of the bins. It's a lot later than normal but they are doing it," he says.
The market is watching to see what producers do with the new crop grain as McCormick says early yields on corn and beans have been at or above expectations, and close to what USDA projected.
"Unfortunately, we've only got about 10% of the new crop corn and beans sold. We can only store about half of that crop on farm. So roughly 40% of this corn and bean crop is going to have to be sold right out of the field or commercially stored. So, there's a lot of decisions to be made," he says.
He thinks with the on slot of grain hitting the market all at once it could push corn and beans down to retest the recent contract lows.
The row crop markets are also closely watching Brazil weather forecasts, which have turned a little wetter to start October following record drought in some areas.
"Right now I do believe the market is hold quite a bit of weather premium, on the beans specifically due to the dryness. You're seeing record dryness in parts of Brazil, most of Brazil actually for this time of year," he explains.
Grains End Mostly Lower Friday on Hedge Pressure: Will the Markets Retest the Lows? | AgWeb
well we got 2/10ths here in C Ind. nite before last. Unfortunately it came with very high winds and hail on dry bean pods. We now have tons of beans on the ground. Supposed to be big rainy day here today {sunday} Not a sprinkle. Same song different day. That 2/10 ths was the first rain since august 13th
No rain since August 16 none today. Don't think that the double crop beans will amount to much.
Beans almost never go up at this time of year because of extremely heavy harvest pressure:
https://www.seasonalcharts.com/future_farmprodukte_soybean.html
Each year is different. THE WIDESPREAD FLASH DROUGHT THE LAST MONTH HAS HURT LATE POD FILL AND BEAN YIELDS WITH ABSOLUTE CERTAINTY. BEAN PRICES SHOULDN'T BE UP...........BUT THEY ARE!
There's still plenty of time for the seasonal rains to return to Brazil!!
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/soybeans
1. 1 month-prices going UP, despite harvest pressure-unusual, especially with a big crop-but it shrank the last month!
2. 6 months-August lows-will we retest? I doubt it because the crop GOT SMALLER SINCE THEN!!!
3. 1 year-prices have been plunging since the May 2022 high
4. 10 years-May 2022 high-$17.35-ish Price recently the lowest since 2020
5. 25 years-August 2012 RECORD high from the last widespread severe drought May-July! (previous one 1988-least amount of drought in history since 1988, thanks to the climate optimum/beneficial CO2) We actually touched a 20+ year uptrend line with the August 2024 lows. With higher lows, starting with the major 2001 low, then 2005/6 lows, then 2020(that went just below it) and then touching it last month.
6. 50 years-See the uptrend now?
Beans are +27c right now early on Monday morning!
Funds still being short and following a long lasting trend(move down in this case) are ALWAYS great ammo to feed the market with buying when the trend reverses and they cover their shorts.
HOPEFULLY, a bit of help is on the way for, mainly southern Ohio from the remnants of Helene!
However, if Helene stays farther south=not much rain. Farther north=MUCH MORE RAIN. The gradient along the northern periphery is extremely steep.
Wednesday afternoon forecast for the next week:
Updated versions:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83848
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
