The trade expects yields for U.S. #corn & #soybeans on Friday will be similar to USDA's Sept. forecast, still safely at record levels. The range of trade estimates is bigger than usual for beans but a little smaller for corn. Corn/soy area is not up for revision this month.
My guess is a cut in beans because of the flash drought during late pod fill even though crop ratings stayed the same.
All trade estimates for USDA's supply & demand data due Friday at 11 am CDT. U.S. corn and soy yields will be in focus, and record yields are still expected. U.S. corn supplies are seen lower after the Sept. 1 stocks report, and global wheat supplies are also pegged to shrink.
We're all thinking a cut in cotton production, maybe substantial because of hurricanes and drought in TX:
CT: Any guess on how much Francine/Helene reduced AR/GA?
Started by WxFollower - Oct. 10, 2024, 11:05 p.m.
Global ending stocks for #corn and #soybeans land close to expectations, but #wheat was heavier than predicted on a reduction in use.
USDA did not make any changes to corn or soybean production in Brazil or Argentina, but here are the numbers as a refresher. Brazil's Conab will be out with its 2024/25 balance sheets on Tuesday.
10m
Looking at the trend in USDA's 2024 U.S. #corn yield estimates makes 183+ bpa seem like a foregone conclusion. And maybe it is... But surprise risk still lurks. The January yield print fell outside the range of trade estimates in 9 of last 20 years (incl. 2023, 2020, 2018).
If you're looking for the same stat on #soybeans, U.S. soy yield in January fell outside the range of trade estimates in 5 of the last 20 years (but in 3 of the last 5, incl. 2019, 2022, 2023).
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I want to emphasize the significance of what Karen stated above.
In this age of technology, with dozens of firms that use it to try to ascertain the crop size for many thousands of traders with billions of dollars on the line, ALL OF THEM WERE WRONG on guessing the USDA's final yield report almost half the time.
In other words, all the previous USDA reports meant nothing in the end almost half the time because the USDA came out with a surprise so big that it was completely outside firms guess.
How can that happen???
I explained it last Friday, after they made a shocking increase to the TX crop with crop ratings plunging during that period.
CT: Any guess on how much Francine/Helene reduced AR/GA?
By metmike - Oct. 11, 2024, 2:32 p.m.
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I feel really bad to suggest this because the USDA provides us with so much useful information. On the other hand, there just isn't another explanation that makes sense and if true, they have cost people many billions of dollars over the years using a strategy to enrich themselves.
Gee, they are part of the government, who would have guessed
This is MY speculative opinion and not anybody else's!
USDA cut yield for U.S. #soybeans by a tick to 53.1 bu/acre, still record high. Yields improved from last month in Illinois and Iowa (~30% of production), but Minnesota, Indiana & Ohio saw declines.
Maybe I have backyard-itis, living in Indiana but I think they are TOO HIGH!
Either that or they were too low a month earlier and made up for it.
As the previous post indicates, half the time...........this was all wrong most of the season because their final report came out contradicting their previous ones.
