“Four Kinds Of Killer Weather Extremes: An Achilles Heel Problem For Climate Predictors,
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https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/10/15/is-climate-change-increasing-the-economic-cost-of-disasters/
It really boils down to this, once again(Cliff Mass can be counted on as an elite source for using objective, authentic science)
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/03/the-golden-rule-of-climate-extremes.html
The GoldenRule
Considering the substantial confusion in the media about this critical issue, let me provide the GOLDENRULE OF CLIMATE EXTREMES. Here it is:
The more extreme a climate or weather record is, the greater the contribution of natural variability.
Or to put it a different way, the larger or more unusual an extreme, the higher proportion of the extreme is due to natural variability.
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Previous threads:
DeathbyGreening:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69258/
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National Climate Emergency??????????!!!!!!!!!!!
Started by 12345 - April 24, 2024, 8:25 p.m.
From Google AI search: A direct correlation exists between Gulf water temperature and hurricane formation and intensity, meaning warmer Gulf waters significantly increase the likelihood of stronger hurricanes developing due to the readily available heat energy that fuels storm development; essentially, the warmer the Gulf water, the more potential power a hurricane can gain as it passes through the region.
1. Do you agree with the statement?
2. If yes, what source would you use to measure Gulf water temps over the recent 3 or 4 decades?
Of course it goes without saying that this is just an academic exercise. Even if the Climate crisis was real there is no political will to do a dang thing about it. Still, it is worth studying.
I strongly agree with that joj and great point, which I should have added in order to avoid misleading!
Increasing air temperatures by 1 deg. C allow the atmosphere to hold ~7% more moisture which increases the amounts of rain in some rain events.
So 10 inches or rain 100 years ago, can be 10.7 inches today.......all things being equal because of the global warming/climate change.
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Oceans have also warmed ~1 Deg. C the past century. For sure this adds more fuel to some hurricanes that have all the other optimal favorable factors.
To date, I've not found any studies that correlate how much quicker a hurricane can strengthen or what top winds speeds would be if we had a hurricane that was over water that's 1 Deg.C warmer than the same hurricane with everything else being equal. However, I will look harder.
But's it's hurricane meteorology 101 along with observations that constantly confirm that the warmer the water is, the faster the hurricane can potentially strengthen. Higher top winds are more likely with warmer water too. I'll try to find a discussion that numerically equates the correlation between water temperature and this metric.
Milton had some explosively fast strengthening.
During the lengthy discussions about Helene and Milton, I made several posts that relate exactly to this:
On Helene:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/107518/#107522
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/107518/#107627
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/107518/#107644
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/107518/#107678
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/107518/#107688
This is the best one to read about how climate change has an impact on hurricanes with regards to rapid intensification and winds.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/107518/#107756
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On Milton:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/107854/#107871
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/107854/#107885
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/107854/#107886
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/107854/#107887
This post below has solid data with regards to rapid intensification going back to 1990. Before satellites and Hurricane Hunters there is no data on rapid intensification. To have apple to apple comparisons we can only use data measurements at landfall.......where weather instrumentation could reliably capture the pressures and winds over 100 years ago the same as in 2024.
If you live along a coast that experiences hurricanes, then the risk has gone up slightly for a major hurricane strike from water temps 1 Deg. C warmer.
Also some extremely heavy rain events can be 7% wetter.
However, with global warming impacting the higher latitudes most.......coldest places in the coldest time of year, there has been a DECREASE in extreme cold. Cold kills more than 10 times the people that heat does. Less Winter storms.
Also, a decrease of around 50% in violent tornadoes because the meridional temp gradient is WEAKER.
There has been a slight decrease in global drought and the planet is greening up.
The increase in CO2 by itself is massively greening up the planet and adding 26% to food production for all creatures that eat plants or something else that eats plants via photosynthesis. For every +5ppm in CO2 the increase in plant growth/crop yields is 1%. Going from 295 ppm to 425 ppm is 130 ppm/5ppm = 26%.
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For most creatures on the planet, this is crystal clearly a climate optimum, including humans that don't live where hurricanes hit.
Cherry picking just this element related to hurricanes, like many do at this time of year and ignoring everything else is dishonest/biased science. That is NOT you. Your point is valid and its good that you brought it up since we just had a couple of strong hurricanes form in the Gulf of Mexico and there are MANY people that continue to deny that warmer water from global warming/climate change increases rapid intensification for SOME hurricanes, including Helene and Milton.
We can assume that, even when the water temperature is several degrees above average in the GOM, like it is now, that only ~1 Deg.C could have come from climate change. The rest comes from natural variation. In fact, as mentioned previously, global warming is less and less the closer you get to the tropics.
Turns out that H2O is the main greenhouse gas, something like 95%. In warm/humid places, the absorption bands that absorb long wave radiation which keeps our planet from being an ice box are almost completely saturated from high amounts of H2O and adding CO2 can't absorb much more.
In cold places, there is MUCH LESS H2O in the air so those absorption wave bands are NOT saturated. Adding CO2 there greatly increases greenhouse gas warming. Turns out that really dry places, like deserts act the same way, with room for additional long wave heat absorption that can take place when adding CO2. Atmospheric CO2 is well mixed in the global atmosphere.
I'll try to quantify what +1 Deg. C in the warmer water temperature might contribute to the average hurricane, everything else being equal.
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Here's some detailed discussions on extreme rain events.
I am certain, based on the atmospheric physics that they have increased. However most extreme rain records happened BEFORE climate change.
Natural variation SWAMPS the increase from climate change!!
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Such junk science nonsense. Articles like this are STEALING THE INTELLIGENCE OF READERS.
Outside of people that live in hurricane alley and a few other realms, this is CRYSTAL CLEARLY a climate optimum for almost all life on the planet.
For instance, it we put the climate in a time machine and dialed it back to 100+ years ago with under 300 ppm in CO2 and 1 deg. C cooler, over 1 billion humans would starve to death within 3 years because of a reduction of 26% less food. Photosynthesis is REAL science. The only speculative part of that statement, is whether this conservative estimate is too low or not!!!
More would die from cold. Not speculative.
Cold still kills 10 times more humans than heat but it kills 200 times more non human life than heat that doesn't have fossil fuel warmed homes in the Winter to stay alive. Not speculative.
If we got rid of all fossil fuels today, we would be taking a huge leap backwards in every facet of technology, science, medicine and things that matter to our quality of life. Not speculative.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Unleaded gas/crude
By metmike - Aug. 25, 2024, 10:38 p.m.
Re: Re: Even Worse than Harris as president
By metmike - Aug. 18, 2024, 2:57 p.m.
Anothersecret about fossil fuels: Haber Bosch process-fertilizers feeding the planet using natural gas-doubling food production/crop yields. September 2019
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/39215/
The United States has 22% of the world's coal. By far more than any other country. And what is our government doing with the huge advantage?
Shutting down most of our coal plants because of emissions of a beneficial gas, CO2 that's well mixed in the global atmosphere. So as China builds MORE coal plants and increases CO2 emissions much faster than we cut(almost triple ours and increasing) ......we are shooting ourselves in the foot with DUMB decisions based on fake environmentalism, crony capitalism and political agenda.
https://globalchange.umich.edu/globalchange1/current/labs/Lab12_GlobalCarbon/Carbon_06Nov15.htm
https://www.worldometers.info/coal/
| Country | Coal Reserves (tons) in 2016 | World Share | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | United States | 254,197,000,000 | 22.3% |
| 2 | Russia | 176,770,840,800 | 15.5% |
| 3 | Australia | 159,634,329,600 | 14.0% |
| 4 | China | 149,818,259,000 | 13.1% |
| 5 | India | 107,726,551,700 | 9.5% |
| 6 | Germany | 39,802,209,480 | 3.5% |
| 7 | Ukraine | 37,891,906,250 | 3.3% |
| 8 | South Africa | 35,053,458,000 | 3.1% |
| 9 | Poland | 28,451,723,410 | 2.5% |
| 10 | Kazakhstan | 28,224,647,550 | 2.5% |
| 11 | Indonesia | 24,910,001,380 | 2.2% |
| 12 | Turkey | 12,514,525,430 | 1.1% |
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This is brain dead (counterproductive) planning for our future prosperity, using a fake climate crisis, crony capitalism, political agenda, misinformed environmentalism, and extreme, dishonest/sensationalizing, ratings driven, activist journalism.
Touting fairy tale plans that defy the laws of science/physics, economics and energy that can NEVER work in the real world that we live in!