Last 30 days on Predict-It shows Trump slowly rising/Harris slowly falling. He’s now up by 15 as regards odds of winning. That’s not a prediction of margin of win for those not familiar with this site.
But, to show how far off they have been in the past, PredictIt bettors were way off in 2016 as folks were very heavily betting on Hillary (in purple ) winning even til after the first results were reported. She had been up ~65-35 in late Sep followed by a rise to ~80-20 through most of Oct. Then after the Comey letter regarding the Hillary emails investigation was released 11 days before Election Day, she temporarily fell back to ~65-35. However, she rose back to ~80-20 as of Election Day (just before results started being counted). Then with the early results seeming to favor Hillary, I recall bettors going even stronger on her (rising to ~90+) before her plunge started late in the evening:
My point is that the current Trump lead of 15 is nothing compared to the Hillary lead of 60++ til even after votes started being counted.
Thanks much, Larry for the reality check. Not surprising.
That's why I've been saying that I can't vouch for the accuracy of this site!
What I think it is a useful predictor of is the SHORT TERM CHANGE in mentality/opinions of the same people/group of betters, who react to short term events/dynamics.
We can see a profound verification of this by looking at the reaction to both debates and other events.
With Trump coming from behind and now ahead by Xc, we can say with high confidence (even if the REAL world features him behind) is that he either:
1. Has passed up Harris or
2. Has closed the gap/gained on her
https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-national-polls-1974920
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It actually boggles my mind that Trump could possibly win based on who he is and how he communicates but the Ds have done everything almost perfectly wrong in this campaign to keep him in the game.
I'll make this the new thread for comments...........much appreciated for you to start it!
Old thread:
Harris interview on Fox/CNN
48 responses |
Started by metmike - Oct. 16, 2024, 12:52 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/108071/
sounds like you guys have swallowed another big lib lie. Trump has most often over preformed the polls. Dems have not.
Now on to the most safe and fair election non sense. In the last days a single solitary judge in Virginia had anointed himself king and put a few thousand illegal aliens back on the voter rolls despite the fact that they were already proven to be illegal.
A few thousand mail in votes were found in Penn. Funny thing is they used the exact hand writing several used the same SS number and several undress used the same address.
As stated before with no response of course. Mail ins were created for a very specific and rare reason and the libs have turned it into a reason to cheat. One reason only to cheat. Anyone caught cheating the vote should be jailed ...for years or deported. But that never happens does it?
Funniest thing yet. The official describing the cheating in Penn had to state for clarity that she did not know yet which party the mail ins were voting for. Boy did that ever deserve a loud laugh out loud.
And just wondering how many of those "intelligence experts" that signed the letter trying to make the Hunter lap top disappear ever get punished for election interference? Guess election interference ain't such a big deal less your name has a R behind it. right?
Democrats play the same game but they use DIFFERENT tactics.
DOJ-more Russia election interference
Started by metmike - Sept. 5, 2024, 9:20 p.m.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8dzxGlcErUo
Conspiracy theories
Started by metmike - Oct. 10, 2024, 8:26 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/107956/
Jan 6 indictment/Trump(8-1-2023)
Started by metmike - Aug. 1, 2023, 10:32 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/97784/
Trump is Toast-2020 election case
Started by metmike - Oct. 2, 2024, 5:39 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/107804/
around 200 trancripts released from jan 6th
Started by mcfarm - June 17, 2023, 4:52 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/96365/
US National Guard on Jan 6th
Started by mcfarm - April 23, 2024, 6:21 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/103446/
Hidden Jan. 6 Transcript Revealed, Undermining House Committee’s Claim Started by cutworm - March 11, 2024, 2:47 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/102613/
mcfarm,
I appreciate you sharing your fake election steal stuff here again from your far right echo chambers so it can be busted with the objective facts and truth.
Since it continues to be circulated, it needs to be continually debunked!
As always, you are still my friend, this is nothing personal and I really do appreciate you bringing it up.
Maybe this will make you feel better!
Again, I can't vouch for this source to be an accurate indicator of who will win but it CLEARLY captures the CHANGE in mentality of the country/betters.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election
https://www.newsweek.com/rory-stewart-kamala-harris-beat-donald-trump-comfortable-margin-1975383
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-wipes-out-kamala-harris-lead-new-national-poll-1975361
Most recent polls indicate growing support for Trump and a decline for the vice president, who had previously been consistently leading in national popular vote polls. Trump has pulled ahead of Harris in four recent major national polls for the first time since early August.
++++++++++++++
Seems to me that when Trump steps outside of his avid supporters/fan base world and OTHER people listen to him, HIS MOUTH turns into a politically lethal weapon. His ability to recruit NEW supporters is extremely limited because of his delusional rants.
The best he can hope for, is what Kamala Harris is doing to turn off people and cause them to vote for Trump.
I honestly think that Trump would do best to MINIMIZE his exposure because the way that he communicates is extremely offensive to most NON MAGA people.
fake election news. So now you are so buried in the weeds you think a commy judge putting illegals back on the rolls is fake. you think election interference by a bunch former " so called intelligence experts" {what a laugh} is fake. Put up or shut up enough is enough.
Next you think Trump is out there just too much. Gee what was it a week ago you and kammala had the audacity to foolishly come out with Trump is low energy and cognitively disabled. But now is out there making too many appearances. So when you all decide please keep us informed also. This is all a bazarro world now where up is down and is up and you guys are so twisted around the wheel you need meds.
Why would you not post something logical like it was a commy pushing communism where Walz invited Chinese commys to his class room in Nebraska and taught in that classroom that Commys where not bad people they just like sharing everything. Now that right there is about as diabolical as it gets and it rushes right past your brain.
Thanks much, mcfarm!
I'll let your post speak for itself and just make 1 comment, since this one should be easiest to comprehend.
mcfarm: Gee what was it a week ago you and kammala had the audacity to foolishly come out with Trump is low energy and cognitively disabled.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Harris interview on Fox
By metmike - Oct. 19, 2024, 11:03 a.m.
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Rs will have you believe this is an example of how the system is rigged and fraudulent.........when its the complete opposite. This is actually an example of how the system CATCHES fraud when it happens. The 2020 election had the most scrutinized and tested for authenticity results (hand recounts, legal challenges for example) in history, PROVING to be the MOST SECURE IN HISTORY by passing these tests with flying colors.
Use this link to source the cases of REAL FRAUD, which the system has been detecting for many years. NONE of this was systemic or widespread in 2020 and none of this contributed to the results of the 2020 election.
Some of us are constantly looking for and reporting REAL fraud, not just making it up to create political false narratives.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: 2000 Mules has been released
By metmike - May 8, 2022, 12:59 p.m.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
By metmike - Dec. 15, 2023, 8:02 p.m.
AS THE WORLD TURNS ~ SOAP OPERA STYLE
By metmike - Dec. 30, 2023, 5:46 p.m.
https://www.newsweek.com/joe-rogan-donald-trump-2020-election-fraud-evidence-1975386
++++++++++++++++
Some of these are absurd, last minute filings that were intentionally filed with less than 90 days to go before the election that they KNEW would be rejected because the deadline to file had passed.
Now, they can claim that the Ds rejected all these last minute(intentionally too late) filings because of fraud and if Trump loses, will point to all these rejected filings as evidence of systemic fraud that impacts the judges and legal system rulings.
NO IT DOESN'T!
1. They need to follow the laws when filing
2. They need to present legit information
3. The need to accept the courts decisions
4. They need to be honest with Rs after they lose
Lose legal decisions AND lose in elections!
MM. I read your post then I had to read it again. So you want easiest to comprehend. Kind of snarky but that is you lately so what ever. You dare bring up rule of law. We are talking ILLEGAL ALIENS. These LAW BREAKERS actually broke ILLEGALLY INTO OUR COUNTRY. That is illegal. That is braking the law. Then they further ignore our laws by promising to show at hearings. They illegally disappear into our country. They sometimes rape rob and murder in our country. On top of all that they register to vote illegally. So you might want to be more careful when you mention following our laws. Do you even see the irony of all that. It does not take a book or even chapter in a book to find simplicity in an answer. It does take many many words when you are evading or trying to rationalize the answer. Guess if all those crimes don't bother some but they sure as hell bother me and mine.
I am sorry but our vote is scared. Handed to us with our brothers blood and many many Americans today dot not recognize that, do not care and we could soon lose this republic. Yes republic as many like to even cheat that definition and use democracy which is why our founders were very clear what they intended.
Thanks, mcfarm,
Sorry for the comprehension comment.
I hear you on the southern border MAJOR crisis........mostly.
Even though that's entirely a different topic than election fraud.
I strongly disagree about the significance of this statement:
"They sometimes rape rob and murder in our country. On top of all that they register to vote illegally."
There is no data anywhere that shows this to be at a significant rate. Illegal voting by illegal immigrants is almost non existent. I welcome you to show me data that DOES show this.
Think about it, man. Why would people that are not legal citizens, who came many thousands of miles to start a better life with more opportunities....... risk it all to cast 1 illegal vote????
It doesn't make sense and it IS NOT HAPPENING except in manufactured realities of people that want to use false narratives for political agenda.
However, there is a REAL agenda that the Ds are using, that I've described several times here.
The Ds are doing this to increase their political power! Eventually, many of these people will become citizens, probably Ds but the intentional Southern Border crisis by the Ds has mostly been about giving THE D POLITICIANS MORE POWER!!!!
By metmike - Aug. 16, 2024, 3:12 p.m.
++++++++++++++++
Regardless of the dishonest reason, there have been TOO MANY TOO FAST and without any process that allows us to know who they are, monitor them and provide services for the numbers that are CRUSHING many communities:
What's REALLY going on in Springfield, OH and 100 other cities is a MASSIVE COVER UP!!!
It's impossible to accommodate such a massive increase in people all at once, let alone the fact that many can't even speak English. At least not without EVERYBODY ELSE SUFFERING!!!!!!!!!!
+++++++++++
Everybody should read this assessment related to what happens when a school system suddenly has thousands of new students ABOVE what it was designed to serve the needs for.
New teachers, new classrooms, new books, new schools and lots of other additional requirements needed with thousands of NEW students, many not even speaking English.............THAT COST A TON OF MONEY AND TAKE TIME(years) to appropriate and apply in order to accommodate all the students.
Re: Welcome to Springfield, OH
By metmike - Sept. 25, 2024, 7:50 a.m.
We messed over many hundreds of school systems and thousands of schools in this country by dumping millions of children on them that they didn't plan for and don't have money in the tight budgets to use to adjust those plans.
The numbers, by every standard were just much too high and all at once. I'm not shocked that this is being covered up because OF THE MEDIA BIAS. Instead the very dishonest, biased media spends weeks using the "eating cat's and dogs" narrative to blatantly mislead us.............as if "Donald Trump is just a xenophobe/racist making things up........there is no problem"
OH YES, THERE IS!
Do You Trust the Mass Media?
Started by metmike - Oct. 24, 2024, 5:56 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/108234/
++++++++++
mcfarm,
We do agree on some things and I get your frustration with us being bombared with constant MSM lies.
Our biggest difference is that I try to look at both sides with an open mind. All the information, THEN do my own research and fact checking (including fact checking myself-which has prevented me from making 100s of dumb/wrong posts) before gaining discernment.
And I still make mistakes. ..........several that you have pointed out correctly and resulted in me adjusting/correcting the previous view/statement.
aqain I apologize and correct. Either by luck or heavenly intervention I have not a daughter raped, robbed or murdered by an Illegal. Their have been several who have and I will allow you to send your response and rationalization about illegal crime in this country...especially to the dads and mons whose daughters were indeed killed and raped. Think they just might have a problem with your answer. Is just one young girl raped and murdered by a bastard who entered illegally 1 too damn many.
Reminds me a the most perfect answer Vance gave a whining lib so called journalist a couple weeks ago as she sat her poppas ass down and tried to minimize the crime of illegal hoods taking over apartments in Col. And he said "
as ass down a tried minimize the Venezuelan hoods in Col taking over apartments of Americans. And he said "do you even hear yourself" Is just one home being over run by illegal crime syndicates from Venezuela not enough for you?
mcfarm,
I actually saw that interview with Vance. I wish he was the guy running for president.
You're meme, made me laugh hard, out loud even though I strongly disagree with that mischaracterization.
I'll have to adjust my position on crimes being committed by illegals a bit in the direction of your opinion but not as extreme as your view, based on the following facts:
This is the study that many people use to demonstrate the lower crime rates of immigrants and THE ONE that I was going to post here to prove that immigrants don't commit that many crimes....... but I decided to fact check myself when noticing that this study is 6 years old and wanting CURRENT DATA as well as confirming data from a different source.
https://nij.ojp.gov/topics/articles/undocumented-immigrant-offending-rate-lower-us-born-citizen-rate
+++++++++++++++
This was my 2nd source:
https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/cbp-enforcement-statistics/criminal-noncitizen-statistics
Arrests of criminal noncitizens are a subset of total apprehensions by U.S. Border Patrol.
| Arrest Type | FY17 | FY18 | FY19 | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Border Patrol Criminal Noncitizen Arrests | 8,531 | 6,698 | 4,269 | 2,438 | 10,763 | 12,028 | 15,267 | 17,048 |
Of course the Noncitizens have INCREASED the past 3+ years so we would expect SOME increase but the amount of increase IS SIGNIFICANT AND VERY ALARMING!!! It impacts all types of crimes!
mcfarm,
I was already with you on the southern border crisis but the latest data does indicate that crimes from these people are more significant than I previously thought.
Regardless, I remain very PRO LEGAL IMMIGRATION that:
1. Limits the amount of people to a number that we can manage.
2. Knows exactly WHO they are, with back ground checks and vetting which REJECTS the bad ones.
3. Knows where they are going and prevents DUMPING thousands in 1 city in a short period of time, without those places having the resources to accommodate them.
4. Giving them a path to citizenship(that requires they do some work to earn it). Immigrants that become American citizens in our country our more likely to become assimilated and be patriotic Americans as well as contributors in taxes and other realms. It helps protect us and very importantly, it helps PROTECT THEM. Illegal immigrants can easily be taken advantage of.
Added the link to the 2nd source of statistics above.
Good information.
https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/cbp-enforcement-statistics/criminal-noncitizen-statistics
Trump's MSG rally draws comparisons to 1939 Pro-Nazi rally
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4956168-walz-trump-madison-square-garden-rally/
++++++++++
The way Trump communicates is why I can't vote for him but this is way over the top, offensive/pathetic, trying to convince people that Donald Trump is Adolf Hitler.
They can use other people and other ways to communicate this message.
Video: Holocaust Survivor Condemns Kamala Harris in New Trump Ad
++++++
This isn't new. Just being ramped up as we get closer to election.
December 20, 2023
Even after backlash, Trump again echoed his words at a campaign rally.
+++++++++++++
Trump and Hitler: How Accurate a Comparison?
Along with many others, Republican vice-presidential nominee JD Vance has reportedly pondered at least once whether Trump would be America’s Hitler.
October 21, 2024
++++++++++++++++++++++
This is an attempt to find reasons to connect Trump to Hitler by really stretching facts to make them significant. Trump is a world class, charismatic charlatan that has captured the brains of 10s of millions and so was Hitler but we can put Obama and Clinton and Reagan in that same category based purely on the number of people that act convinced that their leader is infallible and don't dispute ANYTHING coming from them.
Netanyahu and Zelensky share that same trait and both of them are responsible for thousands of times more death and destruction as Trump and have much more power in their countries than Trump will ever have here .but are seen as great men not Hitlers.
Trump is NOT going to change the Constitution. The president has no power to do that. Trump is not going to make himself a dictator. The president has to follow the Constitution. Trump is not going to end our democracy.
Trump is not going to mass deport 15 million unauthorized immigrants as he insists. He can deport some and he can strengthen the border and he can scrutinize who gets in to restore sanity to our southern border and immigration policies.
Trumps verbiage in attacking immigrants DOES resemble Hitlers but Trump is exploiting his opponents biggest blunder, the southern border crisis.
Trump's verbiage regarding some things is actually WORSE than Hitler's but his offensive language, attacks and bs have limitations IN THE REAL WORLD because the United States has a Constitution, 2 houses and Supreme Court to balance the power.
Trump is not going to round up millions of people and kill them in concentration camps or kill ANY PEOPLE that he hates. He is actually the PRO Israel candidate running.
Trump is not going to start a world war and attack other countries. His position is the 100% opposite.......being AGAINST the US military trying to intervene and control other countries.
Trump will SAVE LIVES by ending the war in Ukraine!!!!
This comparison to Hitler is pathetic nonsense, similar to trying to insist that an apple is just like an orange because they are both round and have lots of sugar.
The expression apples to oranges comparison exists because of the same thing that Ds are trying to do with Trump and Hitler to scare people. Apples and Oranges in reality.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apples_and_oranges
A comparison of apples and oranges occurs when two items or groups of items are compared that cannot be practically compared, typically because of inherent or fundamental differences between the objects.
The idiom, comparing apples and oranges, refers to the differences between items which are popularly thought to be incomparable or incommensurable, such as apples and oranges. The idiom may also indicate that a false analogy has been made between two items, such as where an apple is faulted for not being a good orange.
++++++++++++++++++
++++++++++++++++++
++++++++++++
Most of this is the complete opposite of the truth. Harris has been part of the administration with THE HIGHEST PRODUCTION OF NATURAL GAS AND OIL PRODUCTION IN HISTORY!!!!
Inflation reduction act my butt. It's actually the debt. increasing, inflation causing, anti environmental, anti science, anti physics, anti economics, crony capitalism, political agenda act.
We are having a climate OPTIMUM for most life, thanks in a big way to the increase in a beneficial gas that's still less than 50% of the optimal level for most life, including humans. Thanks mostly to fossil fuels that are massively enriching the quality of life of humans around the world. Lifting billions out of poverty and responsible for most technologies and many thousands of human enhancing products/endeavors.
There's a good reason that Harris is NOT making climate change part of her agenda, which was a key part of her previous platforms.
+++++++
Energy transition is a hoax
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/94557/
ANOTHER SPECTACULAR EV ROAD TRIP
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/101621/
Death by GREENING!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69258/
National Climate Emergency??????????!!!!!!!!!!!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/103492/
The real environmental crisis's
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/27498/
++++++++++++++
Record smashing production of crude and natural gas by this administration below!
Re: Re: Biden is a good commodity trader.
Biden is a good commodity trader.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9070us2M.htm
.png)
No vouching for the accuracy of this source to predict the outcome of elections. It's just one of many sources that can be constantly tracked to use CHANGES compared to previous betting that assist in helping to gauge the mentality of the people placing the bets, which should reflect the overall mentality to some extent.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election
Election 2024: How these five top trending issues rank nationally
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/3198395/2024-election-top-searched-issues-voters/
Here's a dishonest person, cherry picking a clip from 13 years ago to mislead people about what really happened with her interview of Donald Trump:
https://deadline.com/2024/10/whoopi-goldberg-joe-rogan-donald-trump-1236159838/
Here's the ENTIRE video/interview:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3WFrHUsDfHk
Joe Rogan may have gotten the year wrong but he was right on with the description of the interviewers mentality that gave viewers the distinct impression they liked ....even LOVED Trump(absent, the very brief response by the dishonest person who cherry picked just that response-not showing the rest of it, including where she and Trump embrace several warm hand shakes, starting just before the 5 minute mark).
++++++++
Added: In 2011, they loved Donald Trump on "The View". In 2024, they hate him. I completely understand why and it's almost entirely Trump's fault but they could at least be honest about it!!!
speaking of dishonest. There are none so dishonest as those caught in the depth of terrible]y failing political campaign....KH of course. She has become or perfected the art of dishonesty.
She was supposed to be the big bad tough politcal and go on Rogan Tuesday. Just as she showed 40 minutes late for Bret Bair, then decreased the time for the interview she tried to bully Rogan and give him ultimatums about how the interview was going to work, He just had to look what she pulled with fox and it took him 2 seconds to turn that commy around and head her for the door.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy8nn0913e8o
+++++++
On every level, from energy to policy to message discipline, the contrast between the Trump interview and the Harris rally was stark.
https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/kamala-harris-beyonce-donald-trump-joe-rogan-rcna176699
++++++++++
+++++++++++++
HERE'S THE ENTIRE DONALD TRUMP INTERVIEW: I have no intention of watching most of it. Listening to Trump for just a brief period, is all an objective person needs because of his galactically offensive way of communicating and since I know the truth in numerous realms he speaks on.........his rattling off delusional lies adds to the offensiveness.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hBMoPUAeLnY
++++++++++++
I had a long discussion with my wife, however on voting on Monday Night. She couldn't believe that I wasn't going to vote and insisted I vote, especially since I spend hours a day posting political stuff.
In thinking about it more, that's probably what I will do and use a realm very dear to me.....the horrible war in Ukraine ending fast under Trump as the biggest reason because of the saved lives and saved US tax dollars but most importantly, NO WW3 if Donald Trump is president. That by itself, TRUMPS(verb) everything else since WW3, which has been an elevated threat BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT ADMINISTRATION, is the greatest threat to all of us.
NOT CLIMATE CHANGE in this current climate OPTIMUM for most life. Which is another smart reason to NOT vote for Harris.
Make no mistake, this is more of a NOT/NEVER Harris and rejection of this current administration more than it is a reward to the most bombastic, hateful, lying politician in history.
My personal view of Donald Trump has not changed 1 iota but I will vote for him because he WILL end the war in Ukraine VS the corrupt Biden/Harris administration that has INTENTIONALLY caused 1 million casualties in the war with an objective of extending the war as long as possible and maximizing the punishment to the human beings in Ukraine/Russia and US tax payers.
Justice Department accuses Russia of election interference
By metmike - Sept. 6, 2024, 11:06 a.m.
| Readers here know what my personal position is on Donald Trump: Trump 7-26-24 Started by metmike - July 26, 2024, 11:34 p.m. https://www.marketforum.com ... |
There are still many EXTREMELY GOOD REASONS to vote NOT Donald Trump!
of course you are doing the only logical thing you can do and vote for Trump. Its a vote for America not a guy or a party. Congrats to you for finally putting America first which is what Trump is all about.
Our gov race is the same. Braun does not exactly excite everyone but we do know what he is and what he is about. Meanwhile the other candidate is so far out in leftfield she is a loser who fade into the past just like KM. Except KM will pilfer millions more out their just schilling for commys and their crazy ideas the rest of her miserable life. And the tax payer dollars into her accounts will flow and flow because of her and Bidens insider connections thru 55 years of scams.
Thanks, mcfarm,
I'm not thrilled with the idea but in my case, it's more like "putting human beings on planet earth" first.
What Biden did to the people of Ukraine is completely inexcusable and morally reprehensible. Tax payers were ripped off to the tune of 200 billion to fund the kill-fest, which would have been prevented by just agreeing to Putins insistence that NATO would NOT advance into Ukraine.
Putin is an evil guy but we had total, 100% control and intentionally provoked the war. Near 0% chance that Trump would have been operating with the same NATO-centric, Military-Industrial-Political-Media complex mindset and he WILL VERY LIKELY end the war in Ukraine if elected.
So what if it means negotiating with Putin.
The corrupt retards refusing to negotiate with Putin and who insist we fight this war forever instead of acknowledging the Mt. Everest sized pile of evidence that Ukraine lost the war a long time ago, are taking us closer and closer to WW3 with Putin. ......because their agenda and self enrichment is trumping rational decisions and ethical principles.
By metmike - Oct. 28, 2024, 5:32 p.m.
++++++++++
Regardless of who wins or not, the next 4 years will be bad news and it likely means the OTHER PARTY will win in 2028! Neither of these candidates deserves to be president!!!!!
Although I wouldn't want to be debating JD Vance ahead of that one!
Again, this betting site may not be an accurate predictor but it does tell us CHANGES in that groups mentality, which has been lining up closely to changes in other predicting sites/polls.
So if this site has a very strong bias for buying Trump, for whatever reason, what we are looking for is NOT the absolute value from the bets for Trump and Harris on October 30, 2024. We are looking for the RELATIVE value compared to recent days and compared to a month ago or 3 months ago.
You will note too, that 57c + 47C adds up to $1.04 not $1. The bets are INDEPENDENT of each other and based on the bids/offers, just like in a future market from my limited understanding but for 2 different markets.
To me, it simply suggests that more people want to BUY their favorite winning vs wanting to SELL the other person losing.
Unlike soybeans or commodities, where you either buy or sell the same commodity. When buyers get more aggressive, the 1 price for that month goes higher for beans.
In this game, overwhelming buyers can simultaneously buy Trump AND buy Harris. Then, they chew through offers at the market, and the price needs to GO HIGHER to uncover enough new offers/selling to satiate the increase in buyers.
Just like beans but Trump bets and Harris bets are INDEPENDENT of each other.
Larry can correct me if this is not right. ....and we appreciate him for introducing this site to MarketForum!
Thanks, Mike! Here’s an important update:
PredictIt trend in odds of winning:
10/26: Trump by 20
10/27: Trump by 19 (Trump MSG rally)
10/28: Trump by 15
10/29: Trump by 15 (Harris Ellipse rally)
10/30: Trump by 9 (Trump in a garbage truck)
Is Trump’s campaign unraveling? Does Harris have big mo? His odds margin on this site has been cut by more than half in just 4 days of elapsed time with the biggest drop on garbage truck day. Actually that day has the biggest single day Trump drop since Sept 10th! Is the garbage truck silliness the Oct surprise? If we extrapolate ahead, Harris could pull ahead by Sunday!
So sorry but Trump in that vest and truck showed loyalty and compassion for around half the country who were trashed by our great President who ran on uniting the country. And you are saying it hurt Trump on some silly betting site? I am still amazed With Trump working at the French friar and this may of topped the friar with the common people. Hope they all vote Trump and put this kind of crap to bed along with the progressive hateful fear mongering left
Thanks a ton Larry!
I was showing my wife the exact same thing last night, and telling her that Trump was +20c at his best and that had been cut in half. We should note that the +20c peak, with this particular metric, if it's biased toward the Rs (which might be the case-though people that bet, don't seem to have an extreme political affiliation) might not have meant Trump had an actual lead.
During this period, Trump also had a 3 hour interview with Joe Rogan, widely touted by the Rs as a huge positive but the betters seem to disagree. Harris had a rally in TX with Beyonce.
AND most importantly we have had massive early voting and apparently, they can tell what party these people belong to. Early voting in 2020 was a D franchise. Especially since Trump bashed mail in voting as being systemically fraudulent and caused an extremely low early voting number in 2020. In 2024, the Rs are pushing early voting with great gusto, so the D early voting advantage is MUCH less.
Maybe this is why Trump jumped to that 20c lead earlier this month??? It's not as clear as the responses to these significant events:
1. The first HUGE debate debacle by Biden
2. Bidens withdraw, Harris replacing him
3. The 2nd debate debacle by Trump
Regardless, the betting, by itself is a fascinating topic!!
As voters cast ballots this election, some Americans are placing bets. Here’s what to know
PredictIt, another prediction market embroiled in a legal fight with the CFTC, also offers election contracts while its case is ongoing.
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Let's go to this other site they mentioned which apparently is MUCH bigger than the PredictIt. I note that the bets are handled differently and result in the totals always adding up to 100%.
Trumps peak, 2 days ago was 64% to 36% or +28% and like the one we've been using, has been cut in half to +16%!
Election in 4d 18h 38m 33s
Deposits may take up to 3 business days. Deposit today to get funds in time to trade on the election.
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metmike: As with the other site, we can't assign any absolute accuracy to these bets. Instead, it gives us a RELATIVE(changing) mentality of bettors using this site with time. Apparently, $115 million has been bet so far, so these people are spending a ton of money (some using the latest data) which would seem to be a better metric than polls with people having no skin in the game.
Again, this could still be proven completely wrong in just a few days.
I think of these big swings as traders 1st taking profits off the table then, 2nd trend followers who are a little late.
Don't forget this is gambling and a trader can cash out at any time.
This is a message that I just sent to my family:
My position on this is to enjoy being a spectator, living at a time with an historic election because of the unprecedented division and tactics by both sides.
Instead of being emotional, upset/bummed or pulled down by it, I am having great fun tracking and analyzing it objectively.
When either side pushes complete bs..........I'm just grateful to have a mind that isn't captured by the bs!
There has never been anything this extreme in modern history with this technology.
And the reaction after the election by the losing side is likely to be really extreme.
2 worst candidates in history(in my opinion) but we still live in the best country at the best time in many thousands of years of human history to be a human being. We have access to 1 trillion times more information than are ancestors of just 150 years ago.
And at our fingertips!
The coolest thing is that its our choice on what we want to do with all that information!!! Use it to be better educated, enlightened, entertained and socialize, for instance. Practice our faith.
Speak out.............if that's what we want to do. Or just pick and choose what we want to read and view out of millions of choices.
The option to ignore it is there if its stressful but even better, since its impossible to shut out something surrounding us every day..........make a conscious decision to ENJOY IT LIKE A SPECTATOR AT A FOOTBALL GAME.
There are new reasons every day to appreciate new nonsense and peoples latest reactions........like watching your favorite soap opera. When something bad happens to our favorite character or actors do really dumb things playing a role..........we don't let it mess up our lives.
We STAY DETACHED because its not real and there's nothing we can do about it.
The political nonsense IS THE REAL WORLD but there's nothing we can do about it.........so be a spectator that stays detached and enjoy the spectacular show and focus on the unlimited choices that define who we are and allow us to become who we want to be.
Even while millions of others are having their intelligence stolen by this or getting very bent out of shape by it.....be especially grateful that its NOT US!
Re: Re: PredictIt: Trump up by 15 but Hillary was up by 60++ through early results!
By metmike - Oct. 31, 2024, 6:28 a.m
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These times will not impact OUR family relationships(Maguire's/Wiggin's/Kraft's, for instance) but I post this message frequently for others.
Looks like either the poll for 20 or 24 is way off. Who is to say? But on this day the last few years this poll may show a trend or may be junk. But no matter what there is usually someone behind the scenes pulling the strings
PredictIt trend in odds of winning:
10/26: Trump by 20 (peaked the day after Rogan podcast) (~62 to ~42)
10/27: Trump by 19 (Trump MSG rally)
10/28: Trump by 15
10/29: Trump by 15 (Harris Ellipse rally)
10/30: Trump by 9 (Trump in a garbage truck)
Current (12:40PM CDT): Trump by 7 (~55 to ~48)
Trump being dumped as Harris is being bought. His margin is now only 1/3 of what it was just 5 days ago.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election
Good points, cutworm and mcfarm!
Larry, that disparity is down to just +6c now.
The bigger betting site that I posted for the first time earlier is down to +14%. for Trump and also falling.
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One reason that I can just have fun with this is because I feel strongly that NEITHER candidate should be president. When a person WANTS one or the other person(or team) to win(lose) is when they get emotionally invested in the outcome.
This is totally fine and related to our political affiliation (mine being neither party).
With that being the case, I realize that my advice earlier to sit back and enjoy the unprecedented CRAZY history being made for what it is can't be embraced when you have a horse in the race......which is perfectly acceptable and part of what makes our country so great.......we can pick which party to support and vote with other Americans to decide on the next president!
Added: I realize too that the strategies of politicians in recent years is to ATTACK THE OPPONENT WITH EVERYTHING, INCLUDING THE KITCHEN SINK!
When somebody attacks OUR candidate and OUR political agenda it can't help but trigger us to be defensive and cause NEGATIVE FEELINGS!
But we should try to NOT let them control us like that!
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-landslide-forecast-betting-odds-2024-election-1977183
The model first began predicting a narrow Trump victory on October 7, when betting odds began swinging towards the former president.
Miller's model prioritizes betting odds over polling data and also uses historical trends from previous elections to balance the data with what he calls "fundamentals," something that most other models do as well.
For the 2024 election, Miller is using the betting site PredictIt to fuel his model, which was the same data that his successful 2020 prediction was based on.
However, the data and the fundamentals are predicting different results. Miller wrote on his website on October 20 that "technical and fundamental analyses are not in alignment," as the historical trends indicate a Democratic victory, in conflict with the betting odds saying that Trump will win.
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Larry and I should start a new business........predicting the outcomes of elections by interpreting the changes in betting patterns
"Larry and I should start a new business........predicting the outcomes of elections by interpreting the changes in betting patterns "
That would put you in the realm of those who sell trading news letters.
Great one, cutworm!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PNyGPoNFM-E
https://americanmeditation.org/those-who-say-dont-know-and-those-who-know-dont-say/
https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/943476-those-who-know-don-t-talk-those-who-talk-don-t-know
Really tightening up now!!
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election
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It would be interesting to know the open interest and daily volume.
The odds continue to tighten away from Trump on PredictIt:
PredictIt trend in odds of winning:
10/26: Trump by 20 (peaked the day after Rogan podcast) (~62 to ~42)
10/27: Trump by 19 (Trump MSG rally)
10/28: Trump by 15
10/29: Trump by 15 (Harris Ellipse rally)
10/30: Trump by 9 (Trump in a garbage truck)
10/31 (12:40PM CDT): Trump by 7 (~55 to ~48) (Trump insinuated Liz Cheney should be shot)
11/1 (12:30PM CDT): Trump by 4 (~55 to 51)
way to give the lib totally biased 1/2 story about Cheney Larry. He wondered how she would feel to have guns in battle pointed at her aloud. My God he is Hitler stalin and Mussulini all in one body!!! He will not concede...oh but he did concede. He is never around strong smrt women...oh but every single women around him seems to very smart, strong and beautiful to boot. It all about him!!! Oh but I guess he did get shot once and another attempt to boot. He ruined abortions for libs!!!! Oh no he did not he gave the damn issue right back to lib women in their damn states to decide where it should of all along. Please try another tactic these and yours are getting way too damn old and meaningless
Hey mc,
I’m just referring to what Trump insinuated based on my own ears, eyes, and brain. If the MSM agrees with me, that’s their choice.
or as MM has posted often...the msm is nearly 100% of the time involved in yellow journalism especially when their commy candidate is preforming self destruction right before our very eyes
Regarding PredictIt odds of winning, Harris has just pulled ahead by one after having been down 20 as of just 6 days ago!
Extremely impressive, Larry!
Kalshi still has Trump at +8% but losing ground fast from +28% just 3 days ago.
Re: Re: Re: trafalger group explains the vote
Thanks, mcfarm.
Here's something to consider.
These people are grasping to get the latest information WHICH IS RAPIDLY CHANGING. What they were basing their prediction on just a few days ago HAS CHANGED. And it will change more. THEY DON'T REALLY KNOW, EVEN WITH JUST 3 DAYS BEFORE THE ELECTION.
One guru source, for instance last week confidently proclaimed that Trump would win based on the PredictIt site that we've been following closely for months, after Larry introduced this wonderful site to us.
+++++++++++++++++
Re: Re: Re: PredictIt: Trump up by 15 but Hillary was up by 60++ through early results!
By metmike - Oct. 31, 2024, 3:47 p.m.
Donald Trump Now Set for Landslide: Forecaster Who Backed Kamala Harris
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-landslide-forecast-betting-odds-2024-election-1977183
The model first began predicting a narrow Trump victory on October 7, when betting odds began swinging towards the former president.
Miller's model prioritizes betting odds over polling data and also uses historical trends from previous elections to balance the data with what he calls "fundamentals," something that most other models do as well.
For the 2024 election, Miller is using the betting site PredictIt to fuel his model, which was the same data that his successful 2020 prediction was based on.
However, the data and the fundamentals are predicting different results. Miller wrote on his website on October 20 that "technical and fundamental analyses are not in alignment," as the historical trends indicate a Democratic victory, in conflict with the betting odds saying that Trump will win.
++++++++++++++++
That was just a few days ago, with Trump having a commanding lead and the headline above predicting a landslide victory for Trump. NOW LOOK AT HIS "GO TO" SOURCE:
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election
As mentioned a dozen times now, I cannot vouch for the accuracy of this source(and people claiming to know who will win, DON'T REALLY KNOW).........and now, this exact same source that was screaming out that Trump had all the momentum and was going to crush Harris earlier this week..........has Harris as the slight favorite!
Here's the other HUGE betting site that I discovered last week. $157,590,255 is A TON OF MONEY to bet on something like this but it still is not an accurate ABSOLUTE indicator because of the bias of the big betters who are just speculators subject to the same volatile, extremely politically biased news which is changing every day.
However, we should continue to trust these sources as solid indicators of the momentum and mentality of the betting money ..........which is REACTING TO THE LATEST NEWS.
Not having a horse in the race(unlike our posters here-and most people) and loving analysis, I am having the time of my life following this historic, unprecedented by a mile election.
There was no euphoria or sadness created during October when Trump build up his lead.........just fascination. There is no euphoria or sadness or fear or relief as its been taken away quickly............just complete amazement.
But I completely understand from the posters here and the rest of the country, what is at stake and how most people are rooting strongly for 1 side(actually, its a function of ROOTING AGAINST THE OTHER SIDE) and what the impossible to control emotions are as we get closer and closer to E-Day, just 3 days to go.
I'm delaying my next trip to see my 99 year old dad(who is not into any of this) so that I can share the historical evening of November 5, 2024 with my politics loving son in law.
We are in the middle of the most profoundly huge presidential election in history........by a huge margin too.
McFarm said:
“way to give the lib totally biased 1/2 story about Cheney Larry. He wondered how she would feel to have guns in battle pointed at her aloud.”
———————
Hey mc,
After listening carefully myself to what Trump said about Liz, I have to confess that I boo-booed and apologize for passing along inaccurate info. Trump was NOT insinuating that Cheney should be shot. The MSM was off on this.
As mc knows, he was just implying that Liz would no longer be a war hawk if she were to know she’d personally be put into battle with guns pointed at her.
It's getting CRAZY!!!!
Trump went ahead by several c on PredictIt this afternoon, then suddenly dropped to -7c vs Harris this evening. The graph, apparently doesn't get updated until the end of a 24 hour period.
Make that -8c! Fast and furious!
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election
Trump's Kalshi lead has been cut from 10% to 4% today. $165 million bet since the betting started.
PredictIt was neck and neck all day til less than 2 hours ago, when a shocking Selzer IA poll came out with Harris +3. Then all of the sudden, the volume skyrocketed as Trump shares were dumped and Harris shares were bought. Harris’ odds then suddenly jumped to 8 higher than Trump! This almost has to be the largest change within just an hour at this site for the Harris vs Trump race! Despite its unreliability, this is why I like to follow this. It often shows quick reactions to hot off the press significant credible info.
Look at how high is the hourly volume bar on the far right!
thanks Larry. very much appreciated. Just think if 1/10th of 1 percent of our current biased lib media bird brained totally indentured servants of our modern day fake school system so called "journalists" were as honest and forth right as you. Hats off.
Larry,
We were observing with 1 mind yesterday and posted within a minute of each other! Except you had more details on the reasoning. I never thought to look at the hourly chart but that one is clearly the most powerful! Thanks!
The dust has settled today with Harris at +7% on PredictIt and Trump at +2% on Kalshi.
Trump is purple and Harris is blue below. Again, I can't vouch for either of these betting sites for having ABSOLUTE accuracy at predicting the results but they are a great way to measure CHANGE, MOMENTUM and MENTALITY OF THE BETTING community with respect to news/events.
Something new that I learned recently is that if you scroll down on the Kalshi site, you can see HUNDREDS of other opportunities to bet on events and situations, including tropical storms and hurricanes!! There has been $177 million in bets on the presidential election to date, which looks like much more than PredicIt.
Just a decade ago, who could have imagined an election like this and tracking it like this????
1. 24 hour graph
2. 90 day graph
3. 9 am Sunday numbers
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election
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Trump cut the Harris lead from 8c to 2c on the 1 site.
He boosted his lead on the other one from 2c to 6c.
1. You’re welcome mc.
2. Mike said, “Trump cut the Harris lead from 8c to 2c on the 1 site.
He boosted his lead on the other one from 2c to 6c.”
I see that but also don’t know of any particular news or poll that would have caused that. I don’t see a sudden volume spike in Sunday’s data like was the case on Saturday evening.
Do you or others think it could be a dead-cat bounce coming on the heels of the big shift toward Harris over the prior week? Opinions?
larry,
I don’t think that we can assign classical technical interpretations of these moves, especially since we have 2 markets/betting on the exact same event with 2 different outcomes.
predictit has Harris at +6c
kalshi has Trump at +8%
There must be a reason(s)for this difference.
the reasons are not clear to me right now. You guys have any educated guesses?
on this topic, which Larry will understand. I was explaining to my wife about weather models Yesterday.
Individual, operational runs of a model usually don’t do as well and are never as consistent and are much more volatile as the ensemble average, which is dozens of runs of the same model, each with a slight variation of the equations representing the physics of the atmosphere because THERE IS NO PERFECT MODEL. THEY ARE ALL WRONG AT TIMES AND FOR DIFFERENT REASONS RELATED TO IMPERFECT MODELING EQUATIONS AND LACK OF ENOUGH INITIAL CONDITION SAMPLING DATA.
one way to offset some of that and to eliminate extreme, outlying and usually wrong model solutions is to take all the dozens of individual ensembles…..each one potentially right or wrong and average them together. Sort of like imagining having 3 dozen different doctors with 3 dozen different opinions on how to treat a very perplexing condition. ….bit not quite the same in reality. with weather forecasting.
the reality with weather models is that the ensemble average has better forecast skill without question.
of huge importance is that the contrasting individual ensemble runs give us A RANGE of potential outcomes, some that are at opposite extremes (outliers that are usually wrong BUT SOMETIMES RIGHT)..
Applying this would be best if we had 10+ betting sites to average together.
we do have that many polls and the average MIGHT be useful, I think not as much as an average like with weather models but as giving us A POTENTIAL RANGE OF OITCOMES.
I say this because the last 2 elections have been best predicted by the outlier predictions.
what that means here on the polls and betting sites is that the end result may line up much closer to either extreme outcome than the average of all of them.
the average is close to a tie. ,,,,,that could happen.
but a surprise margin of victory has elevated chances as in the last 2 elections.
in 2020, the shocking margin of the popular vote victory ibecause of the massive D turn out was an extreme outlier.
the MAGA Rs still won’t believe it really happened.
in 2016, the Ds were stunned with disbelief when we Saw extreme outlier results The other way.
So outlier results have established a track record in the last 2 elections….going either way!
Just before 10am CST:
Harris +2c at PredictIt......make that +1c......make that a tie
Trump +14% at Kalshi.......make that +10%
Trump has the short term momentum.........but we shouldn't assume anything! These may not be reliable for predicting the outcome and are only a measurement of what people betting ALOT OF MONEY think. Kalshi is approaching $200 million!
-As of 9:30AM CST, Trump has suddenly jumped a bit to a lead of 10 in the odds though hourly volume isn’t that noteworthy and nothing like it was for that hour Sun evening when the new Selzer IA poll was released. An hour ago Trump was up by only 2.
-Compare this to 2020: Biden odds had been up 20+ throughout Oct and up through the day before the election. Then on ED Trump had a short-lived spike to ~+20+, which obviously turned out to be misleading. Click on “90 day” at this link to see:
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3698/Who-will-win-the-2020-US-presidential-election
-Compare to 2016, when Hillary was up by 60 the day before the election and spiked to +80 after the first results came in. Click on “90 Day” at this link to see:
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/1234/Who-will-win-the-2016-US-presidential-election
E-Day!
Things have swung VERY STRONGLY in Trump's favor on both betting polls the last day.
Mike said:
“Things have swung VERY STRONGLY in Trump's favor on both betting polls the last day.”
—————
Thanks, Mike. I wouldn’t call the Predict-It Trump margin of 9 “very strong”. Imho, yes it is a noteworthy shift and is why I posted it, but I don’t think of it as very strong for him….at least yet.
Compare this 9 point lead to the 20+ point Trump lead had on ED in 2020 and the 60+ point lead Hillary had on ED in 2016, both of which turned out to have been misleading.
Harris had been ahead of Trump for much of the last several days(Larry posted when Harris was +8c less than 3 days ago) but it has flipped the other way the past day and Trump has quickly added today but its extremely volatile. A few minutes ago I took this snapshot of Trump +11 and now its down to Trump +8c.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election
On Kalshi, the volume is unbelievable! MANY tens of million of $$ in just the last day.
We could have volume of 100 million today at this rate.
Sorry for the excessively long loading times the past 2 days. Something has happened to MarketForum that is causing loading times to be, what seems like 50 times longer than they have been.
Instead of immediately loading, it's been taking 30+ seconds at times, which causes many people to give up. At other times, it's back to lightning fast.
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Trump only +3c on PredictIt now!! (+12c on Kalshi with bets over $251 million)
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election
As of 5PM CST, the time that the first 2 states’ polls closed, PredictIt has it essentially tied:
As of just after 5:05PM CDT, here’s the last 24 hours: Trump had a shortlived bump in his odds to 9-10 ahead of Harris. But soon after then and since, Trump has been ahead just 1-3 points, a virtual tie:
Thanks much, Larry!
John king on CNN is usually the go to guy on election night.
I’m shocked at the disparity in the 2 betting sites.
Kalshi apparently has an order of magnitude more money being bet, with Trump the solid favorite all day.
We‘ll see which one does best.
Larry showed us how bad PredictIt did in 2016 to start this thread, so my money would be on Kalshi if I was picking But I’m NOT picking Because it could go either way.
