Thanks for sharing that, mcfarm!

Both are Rs with a bias but I enjoyed the discussion a great deal  as most of it made sense.

Oreilly was always my favorite at Fox. Also Rivera and Wallace after that But they all went bye bye.

I don’t think anybody can have much confidence in predicting the outcome here. ive spent a great deal of time analyzing polls and betting to learn as much as possible.

one thing that I feel confident about is that there is tremendous uncertainty because there are factors that can’t be measured accurately that play a key role in the decision on who to vote for that impact enough voters in many battleground states so that they are toss ups.

when experts are paid to provide expertise, they feel obligated to use whatever they can to give specific numbers with exactness that is impossible to have.

he says he is coming this weekend with his final results. now that should be a great interview and then if he would follow after the election with a summary that would be very telling

Thanks, mcfarm.

Here's something to consider.

These people are grasping to get the latest information WHICH IS RAPIDLY CHANGING. What they were basing their prediction on just a few days ago HAS CHANGED. And it will change more. THEY DON'T REALLY KNOW, EVEN WITH JUST 3 DAYS BEFORE THE ELECTION.

One guru source, for instance last week confidently proclaimed that Trump would win based on the PredictIt  site that we've been following closely for months, after Larry introduced this wonderful site to us.

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   Re: Re: Re: PredictIt: Trump up by 15 but Hillary was up by 60++ through early results!            

                            By metmike - Oct. 31, 2024, 3:47 p.m.                        

Donald Trump Now Set for Landslide: Forecaster Who Backed Kamala Harris

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-landslide-forecast-betting-odds-2024-election-1977183

The model first began predicting a narrow Trump victory on October 7, when betting odds began swinging towards the former president.

Miller's model prioritizes betting odds over polling data and also uses historical trends from previous elections to balance the data with what he calls "fundamentals," something that most other models do as well.

For the 2024 election, Miller is using the betting site PredictIt to fuel his model, which was the same data that his successful 2020 prediction was based on.

However, the data and the fundamentals are predicting different results. Miller wrote on his website on October 20 that "technical and fundamental analyses are not in alignment," as the historical trends indicate a Democratic victory, in conflict with the betting odds saying that Trump will win.

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That was just a few days ago, with Trump having a commanding lead and the headline above predicting a landslide victory for Trump. NOW LOOK AT HIS "GO TO" SOURCE:

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election

As mentioned a dozen times now, I cannot vouch for the accuracy of this source(and people claiming to know who will win, DON'T REALLY KNOW).........and now, this exact same source that was screaming out that Trump had all the momentum and was going to crush Harris earlier this week..........has Harris as the slight favorite!

Here's the other HUGE betting site that I discovered last week. $157,590,255 is A TON OF MONEY to bet on something like this but it still is not an accurate ABSOLUTE indicator because of the bias of the big betters who are just speculators subject to the same volatile, extremely politically biased news  which is changing every day. 

However, we should continue to trust these sources as solid indicators of the momentum and mentality of the betting money ..........which is REACTING TO THE LATEST NEWS.

https://kalshi.com/

Not having a horse in the race(unlike our posters here-and most people)  and loving analysis, I am having the time of my life following this historic, unprecedented by a mile election. 

There was no euphoria or sadness created during October when Trump build up his lead.........just fascination. There is no euphoria or sadness or fear or relief as its been taken away quickly............just complete amazement.

But I completely understand from the posters here and the rest of the country, what is at stake and how most people are rooting strongly for 1 side(actually, its a function of ROOTING AGAINST THE OTHER SIDE) and what the impossible to control emotions are as we get closer and closer to E-Day, just 3 days to go.

I'm delaying my next trip to see my 99 year old dad(who is not into any of this) so that I can share the historical evening of November 5, 2024 with my politics loving son in law. 

We are in the middle of the most profoundly huge presidential election in history........by a huge margin too.

With that in mind, this should be repeated again:

                Re: Re: Re: PredictIt: Trump up by 15 but Hillary was up by 60++ through early results!                        

                By metmike - Oct. 31, 2024, 8:58 a.m.                        

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This is a message that I just sent to my family:

My position on this is to enjoy being a spectator, living at a time with an historic election because of the unprecedented division and tactics by both sides.

Instead of being emotional, upset/bummed or pulled down by it, I am having great fun tracking and analyzing it objectively.

When either side pushes complete bs..........I'm just grateful  to have a mind that isn't captured by the bs!

There has never been anything this extreme in modern history with this technology.

And the reaction after the election by the losing side is likely to be really extreme.

2 worst candidates in history(in my opinion) but we still live in the best country at the best time in many thousands of years of human history to be a human being. We have access to 1 trillion times more information than are ancestors of just 150 years ago.

And at our fingertips!

The coolest thing is that its our choice on what we want to do with all that information!!! Use it to be better educated, enlightened,  entertained and socialize, for instance. Practice our faith.

Speak out.............if that's what we want to do. Or just pick and  choose what we want to read and view out of millions of choices.

The option to ignore it is there if its stressful but even better, since its impossible to shut out something surrounding us every day..........make a conscious decision to ENJOY IT LIKE A SPECTATOR AT A FOOTBALL GAME.

There are new reasons every day to appreciate new nonsense and peoples latest reactions........like watching your favorite soap opera. When something bad happens to our favorite character or actors do really dumb things playing a role..........we don't let it mess up our lives.

We STAY DETACHED because its not real and there's nothing we can do about it.

The political nonsense IS THE REAL WORLD but there's nothing we can do about it.........so be a spectator that stays detached and enjoy the spectacular show and focus on the unlimited choices that define who we are and allow us to become who we want to be.

Even while millions of others are having their intelligence stolen by this or getting very bent out of shape by it.....be especially grateful that its NOT US!

Re: Re: PredictIt: Trump up by 15 but Hillary was up by 60++ through early results! 

By metmike - Oct. 31, 2024, 6:28 a.m

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These times will not impact OUR family relationships(Maguire's/Wiggin's/Kraft's, for instance) but I post this message frequently for others.

                Re: Re: PredictIt: Trump up by 15 but Hillary was up by 60++ through early results!            

                           By metmike - Oct. 31, 2024, 2:53 p.m.           

One reason that I can just have fun with this is because I feel strongly that NEITHER candidate should be president. When a person WANTS one or the other person(or team) to win(lose) is when they get emotionally invested in the outcome.

This is totally fine and related to our political affiliation (mine being neither party).

With that being the case, I realize that my advice earlier to sit back and enjoy the unprecedented CRAZY history being made for what it is can't be embraced when you have a horse in the race......which is perfectly acceptable and part of what makes our country so great.......we can pick which party to support and vote with other Americans to decide on the next president!

Added: I realize too that the strategies of politicians in recent years is to ATTACK THE OPPONENT WITH EVERYTHING, INCLUDING THE KITCHEN SINK!

When somebody attacks OUR candidate and OUR political agenda it can't help but trigger us to be defensive and cause NEGATIVE FEELINGS!

But we should try to NOT let them control us like that!