99….that is amazing.  Enjoy your time.

Thanks, Jim!

He's been going downhill pretty fast this year. Hopefully he can still play some chess. I've given him my queen the past 20 years and he could still beat me  some times as recently as this Summer.

Still tons of rain for all of Brazil and the amount of rain for Argentina, that had been shrinking this week, just almost doubled on this last 18z GEFS run out thru 384 hours.

https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/countrysummary/default.aspx?id=BR

https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/crop_production_maps/Brazil/Municipality/Brazil_Soybean.png

https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/countrysummary/default.aspx?id=AR

https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/crop_production_maps/Brazil/Municipality/Brazil_Total_Coffee.png

Minas Gerais weather counts the most!

https://charts.equityclock.com/coffee-futures-kc-seasonal-chart

Seasonal Grain Price Patterns

https://farms.extension.wisc.edu/articles/seasonal-grain-price-patterns/

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/soybeans

1. 1 week

2. 1 month

3. 1 year

4. 10 years

5. 45 years

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coffee

1. 1 month

2. 1 year

3. 10 years

4. 50 years

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coffee

A bit light on rains for southern Argentina but OK in northern Argentina and great in Brazil. Beans double digit gains don't appear to be related to SA weather. 384 hour rains below:

Corn has been on a tear as well.  

Thanks, Jim!

Argentina's weather forecast has become even DRIER!  Brazil is great.

2 week rains below.  I suppose that if the rain goes away completely over the weekend in Argentina, beans could take off next week but that's NOT a prediction. Overall SA weather is not bullish yet.

It's still just early November and I'll need to spend more time studying it over the weekend but since I'll be traveling and out of town, that will be challenging.

I forgot about the November USDA report until a short while ago:

VERY BULLISH FOR BEANS!!!!

                USDA November 8, 2024            

                            Started by metmike - Nov. 8, 2024, 1:26 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/108545/

+++++++++++++++

Can you tell when the USDA released the bullish, updated soybean production number on the 1 day chart below?

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/soybeans

Interesting reaction. Huge spike up but then dropping 20c+ on profit taking from people like me that KNEW the report would be bullish and covered their spec longs. Then back higher. Now at +6c for the January. This is a plot of the November contract which is barely still trading. SF25 is at 1032 right now. 

Last 12z GEFS has a tad more rain for Argentina, which still has below average rains the next 2 weeks. Weather is not bullish yet for SA but the very bullish USDA November report makes SA weather MUCH MORE IMPORTANT NOW!

The report was a little bullish but we are hardly in danger of running out of food.  

Thanks Jim.

good points on the stocks but this is a futures market, not PASTures.

also, your graph was from BEFORE the USDA report. The market traded what’s ion your graph over 2 months ago! 

I  disagree about the amount of bullishness Of the report.

when you suddenly take over 100 million bushels away from supply, much more than anybody expected it’s VERY bullish.

Add in the fact that it’s getting drier in Argentina and I do NOT want to be short this market.

I see what you did there Mike.  

Still plenty of rain in Brazil but on the dry south, especially southern growing area of Argentina. As Jim stated, we still have a huge surplus/cushion with US and global soybean stocks. But SHRINKING surplus. 

Markets usually trade changes compared to what was expected. 

When the crop size is shrinking or stocks going lower, the market usually goes higher and vice versa until thats dialed in.

HEY, I figured out to draw trend lines at the site I've been using for price charts!!!

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/soybeans

1. 1 year-down trend but with a solid low in late August from flash drought.New uptrend forming?

2.  5 year-down trend since 2022 high still remains

3. 45 years-uptrend from Jan 2002 low, to 2020 COVID low to August 2024 low. Also a triple top from 2008 high, 2012 high and 2022 high. You could also make a case for that to be a head and shoulders top too 

Perfect weather continues for Brazil. We added a bit of rain for Argentina overnight but are still on the light side. This was the rain forecast total for the next 384 hours on the last 6z GEFS model solution.

Brazil coffee 2 week rains. Pretty robust..........and for beans too. 

Argentina rains INCREASING=BEARISH!

Great rains in brazil the next 2 weeks. A bit below in s.argentina but not too bad.

last 18z GEFS below.

384 hour rain totals on the Just out 6z GEFS. Good rains everywhere in South America and bearish weather.

Coffee looks like a key reversal on the daily chart

Thanks, cutworm!

I'll post coffee charts when I get the chance. Been with my Dad most of the time. 

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coffee

1. 1 week

2. 1 month

3. 1 year

4. 10 years

5. 50 years

Seasonals or not, there just seems to be too much bearish elements for soybeans to muster much of a bullish trend.  Unless the weather gets bad we will see $9.00 before we see $11.00

thanks, Jim!

Maximum bearish weather right now. 2 weeks of rain on the last 6z GEFS:

the daily reversal pattern in coffee on the 18th did not verify. It broke to new highs today, looks like it's going to go parabolic.