Please post 2024 election results here. Thanks.
This new thread is much appreciated, Larry!
I'll start it off.
CNN projects Trump to win the state of Kentucky and Harris to win New Hampshire. No surprise.
I'm going to my son in laws to watch the next couple of hours.
Previous thread:
PredictIt: Trump up by 15 but Hillary was up by 60++ through early results! 70 responses |
Started by WxFollower - Oct. 25, 2024, 10:39 a.m.
We can monitor the latest betting here:
Latest is Trump +14% near the high of the day
$277 million total bets so far!!!
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election
Latest is Trump 53c and Harris 52c a toss up
After Harris had been up by 2, Trump has just suddenly gone up by 14 on PredictIt.
Trump now up by 30 points on PredictIt as of 7:53PM CST. For comparison: In 2016, Hillary was at about her peak at the same time as she was up ~80.
PredictIt: Trump 75 to Harris’ 28 at 8:38PM CST, his highest margin of the evening.
Bomb threats in most swing states reported. Dozens of precincts in Philadelphia, Atlanta and other Democratic strongholds. Voter suppression by the fascist party goes to a new level. You won't find that news item on the Fox channel.
PredictIt 9:18 PM CT: Trump 86, Harris 14. Largest yet.
Thanks Larry and joj!
Just got back.
This is my first election following these betting sites, so I don’t have anything to compare it to.
However, there doesn't seem to be any way to reverse this now, since its based on the smart money, comparing results from precincts in 2024 with expectations, 2020 and 2016.
No more speculating, polls or bias. Authentic data from huge swaths in the form of actual votes that define results.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election
Look at the money spent. Above $315 million. WOW! That's double the amount since just 3 days ago!
Update: 5 minutes later and that number is up to $320 million. So bets are coming in at around $1million/minute.
Now Trump 95 Harris 7 on PredictIt as of 10:45PM CT.
I mentioned at the other thread that the disparity between these 2 betting sites was incredible at this late date and my money would be on the one that had an order of magnitude greater money being wagered… the Kalshi sight which maintained a solid Trump lead all day today.
there was still mega uncertainty then which is gone now.
what I also learned is that the Kalshi site was VERY MUCH BETTER AND MORE CONSISTENT DURING ALMOST THE ENTIRE ELECTION!
In the future I will give that site much more of the weighting and PredictIt much less of the weighting.
There were numerous reasons for why Harris and the Ds allowed the most flawed R presidential candidate in my lifetime to win.
more on that on Wednesday.
congrats to Donald Trump and JD Vance!
Congrats 2 Mikes, mc, cutworm, Jean and others for Trump winning. I’m quite disappointed obviously. Oh well. Sometimes I feel like I’m in the Twilight Zone.
Stock futures are up 2% due to Trump’s win. In 2016, stock futures actually plunged when Trump unexpectedly beat Hillary though they then reversed sharply the next day and beyond.
Thanks, Larry!
unlike the others that you mentioned , I very much regretted having to vote for president this year. Only a conversation with my wife a week ago convinced me to change my mind from abstaining.
And THE reason that stood out like a sore thumb for me to vote Trump was that he will end the war in Ukraine. It’s no secret how important this has been to me the past 2.5+ years.
My biggest congratulations go out to the poor, used people of Ukraine that will finally get the peace they have been pleading for. The Peace that traitor, NATO puppet and dictator Zelensky promised them to get elected.
Both Trump’s and Vance’s numerous comments tell me clearly that they understand the dynamics and realities and are NOT part of the military-industrial-political-media complex using the war in Ukraine to enrich themselves.
This means with 99% confidence that NATO WILL NOT BE EXPANDING INTO UKRAINE, which is what the war is all about.
The war never needed to happen and could have ended quickly at any point if delusional Zelensky, (recruited by corrupt Biden to sacrifice his people his people for MATO and our war mongering agenda- to play a role, as an actor) the worst military in history (making nothing but insane catastrophic decisions that has cost Ukraine to lose the vast majority of its military thru deaths, permanent disabilities and over 100,000 desertions) to gain……..NOTHING!!
in fact, it went towards aaLOSING EVERYTHINGl
With US taxpayers funding the kill fest and being told, absurdly that we were SUPPORTING UKRAINE!
The dishonest media has continue to sell this galactic lie with its manufactured propaganda describing a fairy tale war which is not the one between Ukraine and Russia.
i am celebrating with great joy in my heart for the,people, THE GREATLY SUFFERING HUMAN BEINGS of Ukraine, here on November 6, 2024!
Zelensky in the US 9-23-24
60 responses |
Started by commodityman - Sept. 23, 2024, 11:51 a.m
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/107607/
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: We should also note Re: Zelensky in the US 9-23-24
By metmike - Nov. 6, 2024, 7:59 a.m.
WX
My recollection of the stock market action early in the night of that election(2016), dropped, because there was floated the idea that the election would not be settled until sometime much later. like the Florida hanging tab thing. Then when it was clear, early in the morning, even when the later results came in, it reversed.
At least that is the way I remember it.
The biggest eye opener for me was that on Tuesday evening , ALL THE BETTING MARKETS (there is actually another big one) knew that Trump would win many hours before the MSM did.
i watched mostly CNN all evening because they are the most comprehensive…..the first few hours, I watched only them with no computer/internet viewing.
More than an hour after the deciding spikes in betting data told the FINAL story they insisted it was still a toss up.
Bettors, clearly were comparing 2024 voting data from early results to,expectations of 2024 and with the last 2 elections to make profound revelations about where things were going in a huge way……and they were right!
2 hours after bettors declared it over, CNN was still very undecided on who would winBut started to make a few implications on where things MIGHT BE headed.
3+ hours after bettors told us who would win, CNN would finally start dialing that likelihood into their reporting but was still giving viewers for Harris hope, if only X, Y and Z would still happen……….despite that being almost impossible.
Also, Trumps victory margin is sort of a landslide by recent standards,
him easily winning the popular vote by so much was very unexpected. More on why Harris was trounced later…….which is just a review of previous analysis/posts.
Maybe the Ds will learn a few things after this?
Probably not but they might.
Still too close to call in some states but Trump has clinched it and look at the popular vote!!!
Trump at +5 million vs Harris. When Trump beat Clinton in 2016, she won the popular vote.
This vote total for Harris is down something like 15 million from what Biden got in 2020(which was inspired by the NOT Donald Trump vote).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_elections_by_popular_vote_margin
cutworm said:
“My recollection of the stock market action early in the night of that election(2016), dropped, because there was floated the idea that the election would not be settled until sometime much later. like the Florida hanging tab thing. Then when it was clear, early in the morning, even when the later results came in, it reversed.
At least that is the way I remember it.”
——————————
Hey cutworm, this article sums it up the way I described/remembered:
The victory took investors around the world by surprise and sent markets into a tailspin. Overnight, Dow futures fell as much as 800 points and the S&P 500 tumbled 5%, tripping up circuit breakers meant to halt trading in periods of extreme swings.
“Most investors had calculated that Clinton would win, and markets are now recalibrating,” said Richard Dunbar, senior investment strategist at Aberdeen Asset Management.
U.S. stock markets shrugged off their losses by midday as the initial shock of the election results wore off and investors embraced the idea of a Trump presidency. Several sectors rallied, including financial and energy stocks, with investors betting that respective industry regulations will be dialed back. Biotech and prison stocks also gained. Investors pushed the yield on the 10-year Treasury to highs not seen since January.
“It’s interesting to see that the market initially saw a Trump presidency as a negative but has actually came to the other side and the market is up on the day,” said Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. Equity and Quantitative Strategy at Bank of America, who referenced the tone of Trump’s victory speech.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/laurengensler/2016/11/09/trump-wins-election-markets-live-blog/
I’m getting an oil change and will start this post to be finished later.
Reasons that the Ds lost by a landslide, including NOT getting the popular vote for the first time since 1988?
1. Really bad candidate. One of the lowest favor-ability ratings ever for a VP earlier this year.
2. Southern border, intentionally caused MAJOR CRISIS. Harris was given key responsibilities. She met with Zelensky 7 times before she finally went to the southern border in September to pretend she was all about fixing it. After years of making statements that supported what caused the crisis.
3. Part of a failed administration led by a man with massive cognitive impairment and a long history of corruption as VP under Obama in cahoots with Hunter.
4. Economy/inflation
5. D nomination fiasco. An already unpopular Biden got the votes from nobody challenging him as Ds hid his cognitive decline. When that was exposed, he fought but finally caved in to having Harris replace him. Harris that got 0 votes in the primaries.
6. Harris was then elevated by the party which celebrated anybody but Biden. This wore off and the Ds failed to maintain the enthusiasm for Harris because she didn't have the credentials or record for them to do it.
7. Perfect example was President Obama. I watched an hour of his rally in Arizona last month. 75% bashing Trump. 20% bragging about how he was so much better than Trump. 5% giving reasons for people to vote for Harris, other than she isn't Donald Trump. This was during the period when Harris went down the fastest. When the most powerful, popular person in the party should have been elevating her NOT making people wish it was him running and not her. Obama was campaigning for his legacy NOT a Harris presidency.
8. With 2 weeks to go, they went to the Trump is another Hitler strategy.
9. This is a HUGE ONE. They weaponized the criminal justice system with 3, 100% complete nonsense, manufactured crimes in NY. After his convictions, they pinned the label of felon on him forever. People with a few objective brain cells saw Trump as a legit victim and those persecuting him mercilessly as unethical, corrupt powers. We can thank them for adding millions of votes to Trump's side.
10. For many weeks, the majority of Harris's speeches were just, "Donald Trump is the most evil person on the planet and since I'm not Donald Trump, I deserve your vote" They pulled from that playbook because it worked so well in 2020. They were wrong in 2024.
11. The fake green energy, fake climate crisis, existential threat to our planet bs. After 25 years of being told this and the planet, instead of dying.......is greening up and producing record food and despite the cherry picking of extremes, the weather is not getting much more extreme.
12. The war in Gaza hurt. Every month, Biden told us a cease fire was right around the corner or that his administration was meeting with Netanyahu and they were making progress or that he was drawing a line in the sand...........then he would send thousands of huge bombs for Israel to decimate innocent people in Gaza. This administration got flack from BOTH SIDES. The Palastinian supporters because Biden was all words and ZERO actions........in fact COUNTERPRODUCTIVE actions. The pro Israel side because Biden's words were not lining up with unconditional support for allegiance to the psycopath of Israel.
13. Harris's past comments on banning fracking and her history of ANTI fossil fuel positions. This administration is responsible for an increase in both crude and natural gas production to record smashing levels and they could have advertized that any time they wanted AS PROOF that she is NOT about banning fracking. But they couldn't because THEY DON'T WANT THAT TO BE KNOWN SINCE THEY ARE TALKING OUT OF THE OTHER SIDE OF THEIR MOUTH, TELLING US ABOUT A CLIMATE CRISIS CAUSED BY FOSSIL FUELS TO JUSTIFY FAR LEFT AGENDAS AND SUPPORT. The bottom line is that they want the best of both worlds. Gushing out fossil fuel production that every developed country needs to run their economy......and pretending that they are saving the planet with fake green energy that will NEVER come close to replacing fossil fuels for many decades. Sadly for her, she is seen as the anti energy independence leader and Trump as the American energy independence leader. Again, Biden pumped out more US crude and natural gas than Trump did.
14. Biden, Biden, Biden. He had a great legacy thru the Obama years and should have retired for good after that. He will be remembered for what he did last and he is the most responsible for this landslide loss. Americans sent a strong message REJECTING HIS POOR LEADERSHIP, AGENDA, DISHONESTY and this absurd pretending by the Ds that nothing is wrong with him. Every time he talks and walks Americans with a few objective brain cells, have eyes and ears and can see and hear HOW FRIGGIN BAD HE IS. And to think, less than 6 months ago, the D party was insisting the he was the sharpest guy in the room and ready to do another 4 years.
People are turned off and embarrassed for him and our country and it cost his party many millions of votes yesterday.
Probably under the right conditions Harris could have won. For instance, if she had been Obama's VP and there were no wars and there was no southern border crisis and she was running against Trump.
Had Halley or DeSantis been running it would have been MUCH worse for Harris!!!
Truly, this was the presidential election with the worst 2 candidates in my life time by a Grand Canyon wide margin.
The election with the most people that greatly disliked to hated the other side. With that being the case, the winner will be facing massive opposition by the losers.
Like Harris insisted numerous times today, she wants her people to FIGHT, FIGHT, FIGHT!
Not get along or unite or work together with Rs or Trump but TO FIGHT (against them and opposing them for the next 4 years).
Trump's messages have always been just like that and we expect that from him. However, I totally expect that Ds and MSM to fight, fight, fight against Trump for the next 4 years. Hopefully, that assumption is wrong.
I have never been good at fundamentals of markets. They are highly debatable. By the time I know them they are already in the market.
I'd mentioned yesterday that I got 6 separate emails from Harris/Waltz AFTER 2pm on election day.
I got a 7th one, 2 hours after the polls had closed:
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I’ve made numerous comments here in the last month about getting bombarded by Harris emails asking for money and assistance.
They probably averaged 4 a day during that period. I let all of them come thru in order to try to understand as much as possible about the tactics they were using to raise a record amount of money.
Aand it DID provide tremendous incite.
1. What other entity do you know of would bombard people With such an excessive number of requests for them to give up something?
2. Especially when people are hurting for money themselves? Think about it. How can a message from Harris that she will put more money in their pockets ring true, when she harrassed people all day long TO GIVE UP THEIR MONEY FOR HER??
3. On election day, the requests for money were even more pathological! Clearly at a time when it was too late and in fact , even 2 hours after our polls had closed.What does this tell us about the people making decisions to use this extremely harrassive tactic?
4. Ds, once again raised much more money than Rs.. The harassing emails constantly lied about this, insisting that they needed my money because Trump was greatly outspending them and using the money to attack Harris. I already hate it when people/telemarketers call, asking for money but if they called all day long for a month and lied about the reason that they wanted me to give up my money for…..to get nothing in return, then we have the dynamic which Harris was creating with this abusive tactic to generate record donations.
5. I can’t explain why but I never received even 1 email from Trump the last 3 months. None in my junk folder either. It’s possible to likely that earlier this year I responded to them that I didn’t want any more emails. The Harris people didn’t give me that option But I didn’t read every single message. Maybe one of them did ask if I wanted the harassment to stop.
6. my gut feeling is that, although this may have maximized fund raising it also maximized offending and harassing people and COST VOTES. You don’t generate votes by taking people’s money. Elon Musk is smart enough to know that. What if every time they emailed me, they were GIVING ME $47 instead of trying to take it from me? Heck yes people will want to vote for that person putting money in their pockets!
