Election ‘24 results
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Started by WxFollower - Nov. 5, 2024, 6:32 p.m.

 Please post 2024 election results here. Thanks.

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By metmike - Nov. 5, 2024, 7:26 p.m.
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This new thread is much appreciated, Larry!

I'll start it off.

CNN projects Trump to win the state of Kentucky and Harris to win New Hampshire. No surprise.

I'm going to my son in laws to watch the next couple of hours.

Previous thread:

                PredictIt: Trump up by 15 but Hillary was up by 60++ through early results!                                        70 responses |               

                Started by WxFollower - Oct. 25, 2024, 10:39 a.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/108241/

By metmike - Nov. 5, 2024, 7:32 p.m.
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We can monitor the latest betting here:


https://kalshi.com/

  Latest is Trump +14% near the high of the day

$277 million total bets so far!!!


https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election

Latest is Trump 53c and Harris 52c a toss up

By WxFollower - Nov. 5, 2024, 7:43 p.m.
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After Harris had been up by 2, Trump has just suddenly gone up by 14 on PredictIt.

By WxFollower - Nov. 5, 2024, 8:55 p.m.
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Trump now up by 30 points on PredictIt as of 7:53PM CST. For comparison: In 2016, Hillary was at about her peak at the same time as she was up ~80.

By WxFollower - Nov. 5, 2024, 9:44 p.m.
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PredictIt: Trump 75 to Harris’ 28 at 8:38PM CST, his highest margin of the evening.

By joj - Nov. 5, 2024, 9:50 p.m.
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Bomb threats in most swing states reported.  Dozens of precincts in Philadelphia, Atlanta and other Democratic strongholds.  Voter suppression by the fascist party goes to a new level.  You won't find that news item on the Fox channel.

By WxFollower - Nov. 5, 2024, 10:18 p.m.
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PredictIt 9:18 PM CT: Trump 86, Harris 14. Largest yet.

By metmike - Nov. 5, 2024, 11 p.m.
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Thanks Larry and joj!

Just got back.

This is my first election following these betting sites, so I don’t have anything to compare it to.

However, there doesn't seem to be any way to reverse this now, since its based on the smart money, comparing results from precincts in 2024 with expectations, 2020 and 2016.

No more speculating, polls or bias. Authentic data from huge swaths in the form of actual votes that define results.


https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election



Look at the money spent. Above $315 million. WOW! That's double the amount since just 3 days ago!

Update: 5 minutes later and that number is up to $320 million. So bets are coming in at around $1million/minute.

https://kalshi.com/

By WxFollower - Nov. 5, 2024, 11:48 p.m.
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Now Trump 95 Harris 7 on PredictIt as of 10:45PM CT.

By metmike - Nov. 6, 2024, 12:44 a.m.
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I mentioned at the other thread that the disparity between these 2 betting sites was incredible at this late date and my money would be on the one that had an order of magnitude greater money being wagered… the Kalshi sight which maintained a solid Trump lead all day today.

there was still mega uncertainty then which is gone now.

what I also learned is that the Kalshi site was VERY MUCH BETTER AND MORE CONSISTENT DURING ALMOST THE ENTIRE ELECTION!

In the future I will give that site much more of the weighting and PredictIt much less of the weighting.

By metmike - Nov. 6, 2024, 1:59 a.m.
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There were numerous reasons for why Harris and the Ds allowed the most flawed R presidential candidate in my lifetime to win.

more on that on Wednesday.

congrats to Donald Trump and JD Vance!

By WxFollower - Nov. 6, 2024, 2:02 a.m.
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Congrats 2 Mikes, mc, cutworm, Jean and others for Trump winning. I’m quite disappointed obviously. Oh well. Sometimes I feel like I’m in the Twilight Zone.

By WxFollower - Nov. 6, 2024, 2:47 a.m.
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Stock futures are up 2% due to Trump’s win. In 2016, stock futures actually plunged when Trump unexpectedly beat Hillary though they then reversed sharply the next day and beyond.

By metmike - Nov. 6, 2024, 7:09 a.m.
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Thanks, Larry!

unlike the others that you mentioned , I very much regretted having to vote for president this year. Only a conversation with my wife a week ago convinced me to change my mind from abstaining.

 And THE reason that stood out like a sore thumb for me  to vote Trump was that he will end the war in Ukraine. It’s no secret how important this has been to me the past 2.5+ years.

My biggest congratulations go out to the poor, used people of Ukraine that will finally get the peace they  have been pleading for. The Peace that traitor, NATO puppet  and dictator Zelensky promised them to get elected.

Both Trump’s and Vance’s numerous comments tell me clearly that they understand the dynamics and realities and are NOT part of the military-industrial-political-media complex using  the war in Ukraine to enrich themselves.

This means with 99% confidence that NATO WILL NOT BE EXPANDING INTO UKRAINE, which is what the war is all about.

The war never needed to happen and could have ended quickly at any point if  delusional Zelensky, (recruited by corrupt Biden to sacrifice his people his people for MATO and our war mongering agenda- to play a role, as an actor) the worst military in history (making nothing but insane catastrophic decisions that has cost Ukraine to lose the vast majority of its military thru deaths, permanent disabilities and over 100,000 desertions)  to gain……..NOTHING!!

in fact, it went towards aaLOSING EVERYTHINGl

With US taxpayers funding the kill fest  and being told, absurdly that we were SUPPORTING UKRAINE!
The dishonest media has continue to sell this  galactic lie with its  manufactured propaganda describing a fairy tale war which is not the one between Ukraine and Russia.

i am celebrating with great joy in my heart  for the,people, THE GREATLY SUFFERING HUMAN BEINGS of Ukraine, here on November 6, 2024!

                Zelensky in the US 9-23-24            

                            60 responses |              

                Started by commodityman - Sept. 23, 2024, 11:51 a.m

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/107607/


                Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: We should also note Re:  Zelensky in the US 9-23-24            

                          By metmike - Nov. 6, 2024, 7:59 a.m.            


By cutworm - Nov. 6, 2024, 7:29 a.m.
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WX

My recollection of the stock market action early in the night of that election(2016), dropped, because there was floated the idea that the election would not be settled until sometime much later. like the Florida hanging tab thing. Then when it was clear, early in the morning, even when the later results came in, it reversed.

At least that is the way I remember it.

By metmike - Nov. 6, 2024, 7:38 a.m.
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The biggest eye opener for me was that on Tuesday evening , ALL THE BETTING MARKETS (there is actually another big one) knew that Trump would win many hours before the MSM did.

i watched mostly CNN all evening because they are the most comprehensive…..the first few hours, I watched only them with no computer/internet viewing.

More than an hour after the deciding spikes in betting data told the  FINAL story they insisted it was still a toss up. 

Bettors, clearly were comparing 2024 voting data from early results to,expectations of 2024 and with the last 2 elections  to make profound revelations about where things were going in a huge way……and they were right!

2 hours after bettors declared it over, CNN was still very undecided on who would winBut started to make  a few implications on where things MIGHT BE headed.

3+ hours after bettors told us who would win, CNN would finally start dialing that  likelihood into their reporting but  was still giving viewers for Harris hope, if only X, Y and Z would  still happen……….despite that being almost impossible.


By metmike - Nov. 6, 2024, 8:07 a.m.
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Also, Trumps victory margin is sort of a landslide by recent standards,

him easily winning the popular vote by so much was very unexpected. More on why Harris was trounced later…….which is just a review of previous analysis/posts.

Maybe the Ds will learn a few things after this?
Probably not but they might.

By metmike - Nov. 6, 2024, 8:44 a.m.
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Still too close to call in some states but Trump has clinched it and look at the popular vote!!!

Trump at +5 million vs Harris. When Trump beat Clinton in 2016, she won the popular vote.

This vote total for Harris is down something like 15 million from what Biden got in 2020(which was inspired by the NOT Donald Trump vote).



List of United States presidential elections by popular vote margin

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_elections_by_popular_vote_margin

By WxFollower - Nov. 6, 2024, 12:02 p.m.
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cutworm said:

“My recollection of the stock market action early in the night of that election(2016), dropped, because there was floated the idea that the election would not be settled until sometime much later. like the Florida hanging tab thing. Then when it was clear, early in the morning, even when the later results came in, it reversed.

At least that is the way I remember it.”

——————————

Hey cutworm, this article sums it up the way I described/remembered:

Stock Market Slingshots Higher After Trump Victory Sparked Overnight Plunge


The victory took investors around the world by surprise and sent markets into a tailspin. Overnight, Dow futures fell as much as 800 points and the S&P 500 tumbled 5%, tripping up circuit breakers meant to halt trading in periods of extreme swings.

“Most investors had calculated that Clinton would win, and markets are now recalibrating,” said Richard Dunbar, senior investment strategist at Aberdeen Asset Management.

U.S. stock markets shrugged off their losses by midday as the initial shock of the election results wore off and investors embraced the idea of a Trump presidency. Several sectors rallied, including financial and energy stocks, with investors betting that respective industry regulations will be dialed back. Biotech and prison stocks also gained. Investors pushed the yield on the 10-year Treasury to highs not seen since January.

“It’s interesting to see that the market initially saw a Trump presidency as a negative but has actually came to the other side and the market is up on the day,” said Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. Equity and Quantitative Strategy at Bank of America, who referenced the tone of Trump’s victory speech.

 https://www.forbes.com/sites/laurengensler/2016/11/09/trump-wins-election-markets-live-blog/

By metmike - Nov. 6, 2024, 4:50 p.m.
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I’m getting an oil change and will start this post to be finished later.

Reasons that the Ds lost by a landslide, including NOT getting the popular vote for the first time since 1988?

1. Really bad candidate. One of the lowest favorability ratings ever for a VP earlier this year.
2. Southern border, intentionally caused MAJOR CRISIS. Harris was given key responsibilities. She met with Zelensky 7 times before she finally went to the southern border in September to pretend she was all about fixing it. After years of making statements that supporting what caused the crisis.

3. part of a failed administration led by a man with massive cognitive impairment and a long history of corruption as VP in cahoots with Hunter.

4. Economy/

By cutworm - Nov. 6, 2024, 5:38 p.m.
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I have never been good at fundamentals of markets. They are highly debatable. By the time I know them they are already in the market.