I've been insisting vehemently for 2 months that the USDA was TOO HIGH on soybean yields because of the flash drought during late pod filling. Regardless of crop conditions or various estimates, THE LAWS OF AGRONOMY TELL US WITH CERTAINTY THAT BEAN SIZE WAS SMALLER BECAUSE OF THE HORRIBLE LATE POD FILLING. NOTHING CAN OFFSET THAT, NOT EVEN THE INCREASE IN BENEFICIAL CO2 THAT MAKES SOYBEANS MORE DROUGHT TOLERANT/WATER EFFICIENT.
Today was vindication of this indisputable physical principle!
Yields for U.S. #corn and #soybeans come down from last month, though soybean yield lands below the range of trade estimates and would no longer reflect a national record.
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By metmike - Sept. 30, 2024, 12:28 p.m.
USDA's Sept. 1 stocks survey implied that no material adjustments were needed for last year's U.S. corn and soy crops. Yields stayed at 177.3 and 50.6 bu/acre.
Comments after the Sept 30, 2024 report:
metmike: The laws of agronomy tell us that the soybean crop, with 100% certainty DID shrink over the past month because of the widespread flash drought. during late pod fill..........regardless of what the USDA states.
So this can be explained by:
1. The USDA was TOO LOW a month ago and the real world came DOWN to their underestimation.
2. The USDA isn't interested in dialing this into their estimates UNTIL they get harvest reports from the late beans that have not been harvested yet to confirm it. Just wait until next month!
3. Since most of the crop that was impacted has not been harvested and crop ratings/conditions have remained steady(the flash drought did NOT impact the way the crops looked on the outside because it mainly impacted filling of the seeds INSIDE THE PODS), the USDA is keying entirely off of crop ratings.
4. I remain ADAMANT based on the laws of agronomy that the crop got smaller in the 2nd half of August thru the first couple of weeks in September. The market often trades USDA numbers but sometimes, the market is SMARTER than the USDA and ignores them.
5. The weather in Central Brazil has become most important right now with #1 producing, Mato Grosso waiting on the annual wet season to kick in so there's enough moisture in the soil to plant.
6. We'll see if the USDA finally lowers their yield in the next report(I bet they do). If they don't, I will insist that they were TOO LOW back in August and the bone dry end of the filling season lowered the crop size down to their estimate.
7. Also, the increase in beneficial CO2 DID help the beans to LOOK GREAT on the outside and use less moisture/be drought tolerant but not as much when filling....I could adjust those benefits to being more help to
USDA made a huge cut to its yield forecast for U.S. #soybeans, and as it stands, yield is no longer a national record (51.9 bpa in 2016). Sizable reductions across the board from last month.
metmike: Flash drought and horrible late pod filling in all those states with red changes, except for IN(which seems odd-but the northern half of the state had some better rains during pod filling).
metmike: Corn kernel filling takes place EARLIER THAN POD FILLING FOR BEANS, so the flash drought towards the end of the growing season was MUCH LESS impactful.
The 2024 U.S. #corn yield projection declined for the first time all season but still easily retains record status. Iowa and Illinois yields drifted lower, but Indiana's yield jumped after being slashed last month.
With a lower yield estimate in Nov vs Oct, the 2024 U.S. #corn crop does not join the ranks with 1994 & 2004 (last two times corn yield increased 4x in a row in this stretch).
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metmike: More real world, powerful, INDISPUTABLE evidence for the umpteenth year that the fake climate crisis mj is NOT causing weather adversity to crops and reducing yields and food production. It's been exactly the opposite!!!
Death by GREENING!
44 responses |
Started by metmike - May 11, 2021, 2:31 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69258/
