Thanks very much Larry and Merry Christmas/Happy Hanuka to you too!!

Previous thread:

 https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/109000/

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With regards to your assessments.

1. The 0z EE was actually -6 HDDs vs the previous 12z run that was +7.5 HDDs which makes it close to the run of 24 hours earlier.

2. The GEFS was not nearly as cold as you thought. The 0z was just +2 HDDs vs the previous 18z run from 6 hours earlier and +8 HDDs vs the 12z run from 12 hours earlier. This last 6z run was actually -4 HDDs(less cold) than the previous 0z run that was the coldest. So this last run was just +4 HDDs compared to the 12z run yesterday (18 hours earlier) when the market was still open.

Here's your Christmas present, Larry!

Thank you for all your wonderful contributions to these awesome conversations that feature a special, very cherished relationship between us.

I really don't think that individual model runs matter as much as THE PATTERN.  Individual runs will cause alot of days to be colder or milder just based on model nuances handling individual systems within the pattern or different positions/locations of some important features during certain periods. 

The maps below DEFINE the overall pattern. It's "cold as a Witch's teet"  

Origins of Cold as Balls and Cold as a Witch’s Teet

https://www.mrlocalhistory.org/coldasballs/

The biggest changes from the day earlier indices are:

1. The PNA, that had been predicted to go back down to 0 and stay there in week 2, now increases again!  This will help to greatly increase the atmospheric pushing force, from north to south contributing to how far south the cold penetrates downstream, in the Midwest and East. This is a function of the models strengthening the upper level ridge in WESTERN North America, especially at higher latitudes compared to 24 hours earlier. The origin of our air masses in mid January will be Siberia!

2. The anomaly map continues with very extreme, high latitude blocking(positive anomalies at high latitudes) which suggests a very far south incursion of the Polar Vortex and maximum flushing of cold air from high to middle latitudes, in tandem with the extreme --AO that would ALWAYS be the case.

3. The most extreme positive anomaly today stretches waaaay north, all the way to Siberia which will MAXIMIZE the cross polar flow. Dumping the coldest air on the planet (in Siberia-large air mass with no sun-brewing the coldest air on the planet) into Canada with the SIBERIAN EXPRESS steering currents/jet stream. From there those air masses will plunge VERY deeply into the US, all the way to the Gulf Coast, where sub freezing temperatures are likely.  This will greatly impact ALL the high population centers(that burn natural gas to heat their homes)  in eastern half of the country.

4. Note how warm it is in Siberia! That's what always happens when the frigid air in Siberia (extreme high latitudes)  is flushed down to lower latitudes and air from lower latitudes, replacing it is always much milder./less cold in comparison to THE COLDEST on the planet.

5. That COLDEST air on the planet will modify a bit as it heads south, thru Canada then  into the US but we can see that the blue, greatest cold anomalies are in the Central and Eastern US. I think this is being UNDER estimated, considering the extreme nature of the pattern.Historically, this pattern is almost always UNDER forecast by the models.

6. How much snow is on the ground will be a factor. Frigid air masses will moderate much more over bare ground.  If we get a big snow event BEFORE the main body of Siberian air hits, temperatures will be 10+ degrees colder than without the snow.  Right now, models do NOT have much snow over at least the southern half of the US and snow cover over the northern half is pretty skinny. This would allow for more moderation but I still expect potential for sub 0 lows south of the Ohio River! With a solid snow pack on the ground, well below 0 is possible that far south.

                Re: Re: Re: Weather May 2022            

Arctic Oscillation Index, North Atlantic Oscillation Index, Pacific North American Index.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

GFS ensemble mean anomalies at 2 weeks. 

https://www.psl.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/z500anom_nh_alltimes.html                                   

      2 week  850 temp for ensemble mean anomaly    

https://www.psl.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/t850anom_nh_alltimes.html

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2 week snow cover below:

Hey Mike,

 1. You’re most welcome! I feel very much the same way about your contributions (which are even more appreciated due to you being a pro-met along with your decades of valuable experience) and how well and enjoyably we interact as human beings!

2. Thanks. Whereas I was close on the 0Z EE’s HDD change, I strongly overestimated (by ~2 to 1 factor) how much colder 0Z GEFS was than 12Z/18Z. These assessments are helpful and interesting! Also, nice point about the +PNA!

3. My 12Z eyeball update: still cold overall days 9+:

- 12Z GEFS looks colder than 6Z and back at least as cold as 0Z. Did it gain at least the full 4 HDD back? I’m guessing yes, which would mean at least tied for coldest run yet.

- 12Z EE looks colder than 0Z and back at least as cold as 0Z. Did it gain at least more the full 6 HDD back? I’m guessing yes, which would mean at least tied for coldest run yet.

Thanks, Larry.

At my daughter’s house all day celebrating Christmas, so I’m not watching as close as usual but the HDDs were a bit higher like you said!

Another gap higher tonight possible!

Added after the open:

Small gap higher IMMEDIATELY met with selling and closed the gap, now modestly lower.

The next 2 EIAs will be bearish and maybe most of this cold is dialed in for now. Up 9,000/contract on the open since we reversed higher earlier this month.

ADDED at 8pm, after getting back home:

I see why we are lower. The last 12z EE was MUCH less cold at the end compared to the previous 0z run 12 hours earlier!

1. 850 temps from the EE 0z run(12 hours earlier). 0 deg. C isotherm almost down to the Gulf Coast! Coldest yet?

2.  850 temps from the last LESS COLD 12z run of the EE. 0 Deg. C isotherm thru Memphis TN, which was -5 Deg. C on the prior run.  So almost +5 Deg. C on the last run in some key, high population centers.  Milder EVERYWHERE in the MIdwest/East/South.  A tad colder in the Northeast but the cold

++++++++++++

The trough along the East Coast is not AS deep.

1. 0z 500 mb- 10 shades of blue deep

2. 12z 500 mb, 12 hours later........MODERATING from west to east. 9 shade of blue and farther east!

Is this an indication of moderation already at the end of 2 weeks, INSTEAD OF amplification? If so, then this much colder pattern would be transient and only last for 10-15 days or so. 

We started dialing it in before it was even showing up at the end of the 2 week period(bullish news on LNG exports really got things ignited). So maybe all the cold is dialed in and now we trade what's AFTER 2 weeks???

The 0z EE was -4.5 HDDs vs the previous 12z run. Despite that, ng spiked to new highs, just above $4 after 2am CST.  

Then dropping hard by $3,000/contract by 7am. Maybe just too much too fast with the bitter cold being a week away???

Also, the last EE below is showing HDDS FALLING at the end of the period, NOT continuing to climb.  EIA out in less than an hour.

+++++++++++

EIA INFO BELOW:

                Re: Re: Re: Re:  NG 12/15/24+                       

                                              By metmike - Dec. 22, 2024, 5:49 p.m.            

Gap higher on the open?  The formation and close on Friday suggests that POSSIBILITY.

 HOWEVER:

It's going to get tricky up here. The high on Friday was  up over $7,000/contract since Tuesday's low and we still  have over a week of very mild temps to go before the MAJOR cold starts hitting.

Additionally, the next 2 EIA reports will be seasonally BEARISH.

7 day temps last week for this next one:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php

++++++++++

update: The EIA report is delayed 1 day because of Christmas. Out on Friday, 12-27-24 at 9:30 am CST.

Hey Mike,

1. 6Z/12Z eyeballing:

GEFS: 6Z colder than 0Z and 12Z colder than 6Z

EE: 12Z maybe slightly colder than 0Z but should be close

2. I’ve got a hypothesis:

0Z EE tends to be warmer than preceding 12Z

12Z EE tends to be colder than preceding 0Z

 Any thoughts? Have you noticed these tendencies?

 Looking back through the last 2 threads alerted me to this. I plan to research this further as I get time.

You could be right, Larry. Sometimes there could be model tendencies that take that form. I hadn't noticed it in this case but I've been really busy with holiday gatherings and my family/kids/grandkids.

On this last run, you nailed it: 12z GEFS was +4 HDDs, the 12z EE(below) was +5 HDDs. This gave NG ZERO bullish traction which is an extremely bad sign(market no longer able to go up on bullish news). 

I will assume that we had a short term buying exhaustion and $4 was an impossible wall of resistance to overcome with buying drying up at that level. 

Larry,

I quickly went thru previous posts like you did and observed this same trend with  recent EE runs.

12z =colder.  0z =milder.

I can't readily explain it. There could be something related to the initial conditions or model bias. Or it could be random variation with independent odds, like what happens when flipping a coin that results in  5 or even 10 coin flips in a row that land on heads(or tails). Each time, the chance for heads is still 50%.

In this case, your highly trained observation skills observed something that has REALLY been happening.  Now we can continue to track it to see if it continues or if it was mostly random variation.

This was the last post from 2 weeks ago  which completely contradicted that pattern(many of the HDD numbers  during these 2 weeks were NOT reported by me and its possible others could be included in this contradiction).

               https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/108738/#108936

                By metmike - Dec. 11, 2024, 1:54 p.m.            

Will the EE tonight be milder/have less HDDs???

Mike asked based at least partially on my hypothesis that the 0Z EE tends to be warmer than the 12Z: 

“Will the EE tonight be milder/have less HDDs???”

———-

Hey Mike,

 It is almost as if the wx model gods decided to shut me up with an exclamation mark! <G>: 

 The 0Z EE per my eyeballs looks drastically colder than the 12Z! I’m guessing 20 HDD colder than the 12Z, meaning 25 colder than yesterdays 0Z! This has to be the coldest EE yet.

 NG rose a whopping 3% on this!

For sure the coldest yet, Larry!

+14 HDDs for this last 0z EE compared to the previous one.

Yes, I think that does blow a big hole in the potential warm bias 0z run theory for the EE.

Whats also interesting is that the GEFS was actually -2 HDDs milder.

But the mildest model of all was the Canadian model.

it greatly deamplified the ridge-west, trough-east pattern so there is no longer much cross polar flow.

mostly air of mild pacific  origin mixed with Canadian air with a bit of southern Arctic air in at times.

Not sure what was expected for this EIA report but the last 6z GEFS was another -8 HDDs vs the previous run after that 0z run was -2 HDDs compared to the one before that.

Also, the front month, January expires in a few hours and that could be gravitating towards the cash price, which is impacted by this current, very mild weather.

+++++++++++

-93 Bcf

  ‹ See All Natural Gas Reports

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending December 20, 2024   |  Released: December 27, 2024 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: January 3, 2025 

Summary

Working gas in storage was 3,529 Bcf as of Friday, December 20, 2024, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net decrease of 93 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 14 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 166 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,363 Bcf. At 3,529 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2019 through 2023. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

   Hey Mike,  

 1. Per NGI, the range of guesses was -94 to -111. So, the -93 actual was a bit bearish vs the midpoint.

    2.     From NGI:

“Natural gas futures rose sharply in early trading Friday as the European weather model for early January trended colder overnight.

The European model, which had been showing less severe cold for January than the U.S. ensemble, added a stout 17 heating degree days overnight for the first 10 days of January, putting the two models in better agreement, said NatGasWeather.“

Thanks, Larry!

https://naturalgasintel.com/

++++++++

Next Thursday's EIA will be very bearish compared to most historical late December numbers.

I'm not sure where we go from here. The market keeps giving strong signals of wanting to go in either direction but the complete lack of any bullish follow thru on bullish weather updates is a warning sign for the bulls, especially since seasonals turn pretty negative here and we've had a nice bullish ride to dial in a ton of cold and storage remains very robust.

However, if the cold LASTS in January, its hard to imagine prices NOT responding to the upside with higher highs. 

It's Friday, too. Traders will be placing bets on the weather maps the market uses for the Sunday open........which very often features A GAP higher or lower. 

We need MORE cold to keep going higher, which is still very possible.