Previous thread:
Soybeans/grains/coffee 11-5-24
81 responses |
Started by metmike - Nov. 5, 2024, 3:59 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/108473/
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All trade estimates for USDA's reports due Friday at 11am CST. All eyes will be on U.S. crop production as well as quarterly stocks. U.S. corn & soy yields are seen drifting slightly lower. However, Brazil's soybean production is expected to rise.
Final two polls - winter wheat seedings and world stocks. U.S. winter wheat acres are expected to be very similar to last year. World corn stocks are seen at 10-year lows, but soybeans are pegged at record high.
Second week in a row that U.S. corn, soy & wheat export sales disappointed vs expectations, and meal joined in on that too last week. Net sales for corn, soy & wheat were all marketing year lows, though that is common for New Year's week.
metmike: Previous South America weather thread:
Soybeans/grains/coffee 11-5-24
81 responses |
Started by metmike - Nov. 5, 2024, 3:59 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/108473/
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Soy conditions in Argentina this week dropped a bit from last week. 49% of #soybeans are in good or excellent condition versus 53% last week. That is a little worse than a year ago but better than this same week in the previous three years.
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This chart + the forecasts are concerning. Models currently suggest Jan precipitation, at best, may be only ~33% of normal by the 22nd in #Argentina's grain belt. To say that is not a winning recipe for #soybeans is putting it mildly.
CME Group plans to launch hard red spring #wheat futures and options early this year:
EXTREMELY BULLISH!!!!!!!!
U.S. harvested corn area came in above expectations but soybean acres came in below. Both crops saw yield reductions far larger than analysts predicted - both yields were below the range of analyst estimates.
U.S. corn and soybean ending stock estimates come in well below trade expectations on smaller crops. Corn exports were trimmed but soy exports were unchanged. Wheat carryout was little changed from last month.
USDA made no changes to South American corn and soybean production:
U.S. corn and soybean ending stock estimates come in well below trade expectations on smaller crops. Corn exports were trimmed but soy exports were unchanged. Wheat carryout was little changed from last month.
Dec. 1 stocks of U.S. corn and soybeans were lighter than analysts expected but wheat stocks were slightly heavier.
Back in September, I insisted that yields were going to come in MUCH LOWER than expected because of the flash drought in late August/September! Mainly making comments on beans, because their pod filling period is later and more important than corn, which is hurt more by intense heat.
Horrible late pod filling weather for beans.
Horrible kernel filling(heat fill) weather for corn.
It took until January for the actual tabulated data on yields to come out!!!
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https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/108545/
USDA November 8, 2024
Started by metmike - Nov. 8, 2024, 1:26 p.m.
I've been insisting vehemently for 2 months that the USDA was TOO HIGH on soybean yields because of the flash drought during late pod filling. Regardless of crop conditions or various estimates, THE LAWS OF AGRONOMY TELL US WITH CERTAINTY THAT BEAN SIZE WAS SMALLER BECAUSE OF THE HORRIBLE LATE POD FILLING. NOTHING CAN OFFSET THAT, NOT EVEN THE INCREASE IN BENEFICIAL CO2 THAT MAKES SOYBEANS MORE DROUGHT TOLERANT/WATER EFFICIENT.
Today was vindication of this indisputable physical principle!
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Nov. 1, 2024, 1:41 p.m.
metmike
Something else caused us to go up. I still contend that the USDA has the US crop size TOO HIGH because the flash drought while beans were still filling pods, HAD TO HAVE HAD A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THE SIZE OF THE BEANS IN THEIR PODS.
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Oct. 18, 2024, 4:16 p.m.
metmike
I think the flash drought late in pod filling hurt more than the USDA thinks.
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Oct. 13, 2024, 5:13 p.m.
metmike
I'm still convinced we lost a couple of bushels off the crop between early August and mid September from the widespread flash drought.
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Oct. 7, 2024, 4:59 p.m.
metmike
The flash drought is drying beans extremely quickly and there will be yield losses, including pod shattering and lower weights if they leave in the field too long. Corn requires much more drying in the field.
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Oct. 2, 2024, 12:42 p.m.
metmike: The flash drought caused producers to get beans out of the field quickly because drying out too much will cause yields losses for beans(pod shattering). These were the earlier planted beans that will have the highest yields. The later planted beans had more pod filling during the flash drought. Yields WILL drop in the 2nd half of the bean harvest.
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Sept. 30, 2024, 12:28 p.m.
metmike
Since most of the crop that was impacted has not been harvested and crop ratings/conditions have remained steady(the flash drought did NOT impact the way the crops looked on the outside because it mainly impacted filling of the seeds INSIDE THE PODS), the USDA is keying entirely off of crop ratings.
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metmike: The laws of agronomy tell us that the soybean crop, with 100% certainty DID shrink over the past month because of the widespread flashdrought. during late pod fill..........regardless of what the USDA states.
So this can be explained by:
1. The USDA was TOO LOW a month ago and the real world came DOWN to their underestimation.
2. The USDA isn't interested in dialing this into their estimates UNTIL they get harvest reports from the late beans that have not been harvested yet to confirm it. Just wait until next month!
3. Since most of the crop that was impacted has not been harvested and crop ratings/conditions have remained steady(the flash drought did NOT impact the way the crops looked on the outside because it mainly impacted filling of the seeds INSIDE THE PODS), the USDA is keying entirely off of crop ratings.
4. I remain ADAMANT based on the laws of agronomy that the crop got smaller in the 2nd half of August thru the first couple of weeks in September. The market often trades USDA numbers but sometimes, the market is SMARTER than the USDA and ignores them.
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Sept. 24, 2024, 8:46 p.m.
metmike
It's extremely doubtful we get close to the recent lows. We lost TOO MUCH production in the US with this flash drought.
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Sept. 24, 2024, 8:31 p.m.
metmike
Beans almost NEVER go up in the 2nd half of September with very heavy harvest pressure. However, the crop GOT SMALLER during the last month because of the flash drought during late pod fill. The market has been trading a SMALLER CROP this month. This isn't showing up with crop conditions/ratings on Mondays because the plants still look good. It's the smaller seeds inside the pods that cant be seen which have absolutely caused a smaller crop compared to a month ago.
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Sept. 22, 2024, 8:41 p.m.
metmike
Each year is different. THE WIDESPREAD FLASHDROUGHT THE LAST MONTH HAS HURT LATE POD FILL AND BEAN YIELDS WITH ABSOLUTE CERTAINTY. BEAN PRICES SHOULDN'T BE UP AT THIS TIME OF YEAR/HARVEST...........BUT THEY ARE BECAUSE OF THAT!
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Re: Re: Re: USDA September 12, 2024
By metmike - Sept. 12, 2024, 8:40 p.m.
metmike: SOYBEAN YIELDS WILL COME IN LOWER THAN THIS BECAUSE OF THE FLASHDROUGHT HITTING DURING LATE POD FILLING IN TOO MANY PLACES!!!
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Sept. 9, 2024, 12:10 a.m.
metmike
DROUGHT MONITOR
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
Sept 4, 2024 FLASH DROUGHT IN MANY AREAS(thanks to oncoming La Nina)!!!
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| Body | Date Posted & Author |
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| This is worth it's own thread and I don't want to completely bog down the great tropical weather thread that Larry started for us. To get you up to date on this rain event. Weather-UPDATED LINKS https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/ Previous post from that link: I got .05 and the NWS got .04 here on the last Saturday in August after 29 days with 0 in the rain-gauge at Evansville, IN. This broke the consecutive days with 0 streak but it was only enough to wet the ground and contributed nothing to help us with the FLASH DROUGHT. We have another 2 weeks with no rain coming up. Things are getting really bad here. We'll be spending several hundred $$s more in irrigation the next week+. I feel certain that this will be in the top 5 for driest stretches in history for us and it could be the driest??? I just can't find records for Evansville, IN right now which go back to before 1900. The DP is incredibly low and comfortable today, in the 40s but with the strong breeze, this is just drying things out faster. Fortunately, we will see MUCH cooler temps which is part of the problem with this pattern......NO GULF MOISTURE with dry, continental air ... ++++++++++ Sept. 2, 2024, 5:37 p.m.metmike The NWS has rapid onset of drought in the 8-14 day outlook but we ALREADY HAVE A FLASH DROUGHT in southern IN! +++++++++++++ Aug. 27, 2024, 10:07 p.m.cutworm This flash drought and heat wave here in SEIN probably is taking a little off what I would have thought a week ago. Here we are in the pod filling stage. Rain and cooler weather would be preferable. This is the time when the size of the bean is made, or not. it can easily account for 50% of yield. IMHO |
Great call Mike. But then again that is why some of us are here. For your insight.
Thanks, Jim!
It's fun and challenging to do this. Your views are always appreciated too!
I enjoy the repartee.
WHY does it take until January for USDA to lower yields ???? How many farmers threw in the towel and sold this winter? Thanks so much for your posts. You were right about the late drought hurting yields. Maybe you've addressed this already, but what are your thoughts on widespread drought in the midwest this summer ?
Thanks very much, bowyer,
It makes no sense at all to me that an honest, competent USDA took 3 months to tell us what should have been crystal clear a long time ago.
Ive made several posts in the past, commenting on the unexplainable, inconsistencies of their reports that make no sense except that there’s funny business going on.
This is another, especially blatant example.
like you said, a lot of producers and others made decisions based on bogus USDA information.
with regards to drought chances this growing season, I can cover that for you. however, I wouldn’t put a lot of faith in weather predictions that far out.
ADDED: We should seriously be asking why the USDA, which is paid millions of tax payer dollars to give the markets the most accurate and timely demand/supply information for many billions of dollars in key decisions to be made by farmers/producers, commercials/end users, investors and speculators , just completely blew the most important numbers for crop production for the past 3* months??
When they are the gatekeepers,of all the data/information.
The crop was harvested in September and October after weather in August and September hurt yields a great deal.
it was basic agronomy 101!
This is what happens when you have an entity with no accountability that can abuse their power for self enriching objectives.
insiders that knew with certainty this mind boggling adjustment was coming made millions. Spare me the USDA defending arguments as if we are to believe they are all saints that, unlike the rest of the real world, don’t have flawed, greedy humans, that when given opportunities to cheat to enrich themselves with no consequences , will not exploit those opportunities.
Some yahoo meteorologist trader from Indiana didn’t have magical mystery powers that nobody at the USDA had. Not for this many months. No way is that believable.
In fact, they had every iota of what I had plus all the actual data for this report…….months ago.
They keep getting away with it is the reason that it will happen again!
This opinion can't be proven but there continues to be more and more compelling evidence of to support it.
By metmike - Oct. 14, 2024, 5:06 p.m.
10m
Looking at the trend in USDA's 2024 U.S. #corn yield estimates makes 183+ bpa seem like a foregone conclusion. And maybe it is... But surprise risk still lurks. The January yield print fell outside the range of trade estimates in 9 of last 20 years (incl. 2023, 2020, 2018).
If you're looking for the same stat on #soybeans, U.S. soy yield in January fell outside the range of trade estimates in 5 of the last 20 years (but in 3 of the last 5, incl. 2019, 2022, 2023).
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I want to emphasize the significance of what Karen stated above.
In this age of technology, with dozens of firms that use it to try to ascertain the crop size for many thousands of traders with billions of dollars on the line, ALL OF THEM WERE WRONG on guessing the USDA's final yield report almost half the time.
In other words, all the previous USDA reports meant nothing in the end almost half the time because the USDA came out with a surprise so big that it was completely outside firms guess.
How can that happen???
I explained it last Friday, after they made a shocking increase to the TX crop with crop ratings plunging during that period.
CT: Any guess on how much Francine/Helene reduced AR/GA?
By metmike - Oct. 11, 2024, 2:32 p.m.
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I feel really bad to suggest this because the USDA provides us with so much useful information. On the other hand, there just isn't another explanation that makes sense and if true, they have cost people many billions of dollars over the years using a strategy to enrich themselves.
Gee, they are part of the government, who would have guessed
This is MY speculative opinion and not anybody else's!
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The above post was made just 3 months ago based on numerous previous incidents. This one, on January 10, 2025 in particular screams out corruption and/or incompetence so loudly because I was tracking the crop size personally as a meteorologist trader in the growing season during a flash drought that hit us here in Evansville, IN.
Potential for HUGE extremely needed rain event!
60 responses |
Started by metmike - Sept. 9, 2024, 12:05 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/107280/
Who exactly holds the USDA accountable for providing honest, reliable crop production reports?
Just wail till the March planting intentions report . 7 million additional corn acres with record yields. Corn limit down. I'm calling it now.
bowyer,
As you requested a discussion about potential drought for this upcoming growing season, I'll start a new thread and title it 2025 growing season.
Since we are in the midst of a weak La Nina, the biggest indicator for what MIGHT be coming up would be using weak La Nina years as analogs.
2025 growing season/Current La Nina
Started by metmike - Jan. 11, 2025, 1:03 p.m.
The weather in Argentina recently has been extremely bullish! This week will feature some 100+ temps after weeks of being dry. However, there is rain creeping into the forecast, especially in week 2. However, its still bullish, just not AS bullish as before.
Brazil weather continues to be near optimal.
These are the key growing regions in # 1 global soybean producer Brazil for beans (corn is big too) and coffee. And in Argentina for beans(corn and wheat is pretty big there too).
https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/countrysummary/default.aspx?id=BR
https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/crop_production_maps/Brazil/Municipality/Brazil_Soybean.png
https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/countrysummary/default.aspx?id=AR
https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/crop_production_maps/Brazil/Municipality/Brazil_Total_Coffee.png
Minas Gerais weather counts the most!
During this part of year, the grains can have a bullish slant. They used to trade closest to the production cycle of the Northern Hemisphere because of #1 producer USA's growing season but in recent years they will trade closely off of the Southern American crop's production prospects.
Until the USDA hit the market with the huge shockaroo last Friday, the market didn't care that much about crop losses in Argentina. Now, suddenly that's become more important with a much lower surplus in stocks than what the USDA wanted us to think in October, November and December, despite them having the information to make huge cuts then.
https://farms.extension.wisc.edu/articles/seasonal-grain-price-patterns/
Rains keep adding up in the week 2 part of the forecast or Argentina. 2 inches in week 2 is not too bad.........after almost no rain for another 6 days and heat.
Crop ratings in Argentina right now must be pretty bad!!
Interesting that over the past month+ the weather forecast for Argentina was INCREDIBLY bullish and the market ignored it much of the time.
Then, after the USDA finally told the truth about last years crop, on January 10, 2025 the market suddenly cares..........even as the weather forecast is getting LESS bullish in week 2.
USDA cut U.S. soy yield in Nov by 2.6%, the largest Nov cut by % since 1993. Today, soy yield was cut by 1.9%, the largest Jan cut since 1993. Let that sink in. Also, bushel-wise, these were the largest two cuts for these months since before 1993....
U.S. #corn yield comes in 3.4 bu/acre below analyst expectations, one of the biggest yield misses in recent memory. Here's how the yields compare with the previous forecast. I can hear the chorus of "I told you so" coming from Minnesota..... (and Ohio, too)
I didn't personally visit Ohio, but I went to Minnesota on the Pro Farmer tour in August for the 11th time. Never had I seen a sketchier Minnesota corn crop than I did this year (that includes 2012). Every single field unfortunately had water damage. That clearly showed up today.
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Corn export inspections were the week's best since 2008, and before that, 1990. Soy inspection numbers prob still look fine given yearly expectations (low Chinese sales may eventually hinder this). Wheat was pretty blah for the week, but nothing too unordinary.
