Here's a comparison of the 3 main models at the end of the period, 360 hours which is 15 days.

1. European ensemble. Deep trough/negative anomalies in Southeast Canada, extended to northern US. Ridging/positive anomalies off the West Coast. Modest positive anomalies southeast to south. 

2. Canadian ensemble. Deep negative anomalies West to Plains to Upper Midwest. Strong positive anomalies/ridge building Eastern 1/3rd of US! This is brand new!

3. GEFS ensemble.  Modest negative anomalies in the West to Rockies. STRONG positive anomalies ridging eastern 1/2. Almost the opposite of the European model in the placement of the biggest anomaly centers. 

All the models do agree on NEW ridging, positive anomalies in the Southeast. Question is how strong will this new upper level ridging be and how far north and west will it extend?

Where will the the negative anomalies be to the north and west of the NEW ridging??? 

Looks like a potentially much wetter pattern for at least the eastern 1/3rd of the country, possibly working back into the Midwest? Some in the form of snow.

Potentially much warmer in the Southeast and surrounding areas. Lots of uncertainty.

++++++++++++++++++

Before jumping on the huge warm up bandwagon of the GEFS, the last 12z Canadian model below still has impressive cross polar flow gushing out of Siberia, thru Canada and defining ARCTIC cold fronts crossing into the US:

https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=384&Day=0&RunTime=12&Type=gz

https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=384&Day=0&RunTime=12&Type=gz

How much higher will NG open up with a huge gap likely?

+3,500/contract.   Will this be a gap and crap?

This is definitely a selling set up for me, especially........if the GEFS is correct!

The HO opened slightly higher then took off like a rocket, up over 5c, with RB only +2.5c.

Huge upside break away gap higher above previous highs on the chart.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

1. 35 years

2. 10 years

3. 1 year

4. 1 month

7 day temps for this Thursdays EIA. Major cold in the Eastern 2/3rds, Mild out West. Huge drawdown coming up!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php

                Re: Re: Re: NG 1/12/2025+           

                          By metmike - Jan. 12, 2025, 6:01 p.m.                    

+3,500/contract.   Will this be a gap and crap?

This is definitely a selling set up for me, especially........if the GEFS is correct!

+++++++++++++++

That's exactly what it turned out to be! We completely filled the massive gap and have even been lower for the day, now about unchanged  and right around $4 but with extreme volatility that makes it almost impossible to trade.

This cold may have staying power into early  February?

But it will shift farther west with an upper level ridge building in the East.