Big increase in rain on the midday, 12z GEFS run for Argentina.

1. 12z run

1. Previous 6z run

That would explain beans drop.  Thanks for the update

YW, Jim!!

Rain amounts in week 2 have continued to climb for Argentina. This was the last 6z GEFS.

  MetMike

  Will you have a weather update for South America prior to the open at &pm tonight?  

  Seems it might have been a bit over done today.

  Your thoughts?

Here we go with the last 18z GEFS, tjc! Total 2 week rains, almost all from week 2.

I've been focusing extra time on chess stuff this week with shirt orders at 5 schools, late sign ups at 1 school and our tournament on Saturday, so posting less.

This amount of rain is close to the same as the previous 2 runs, 6 and 12 hours ago and more than the run from 18 hours ago.

The 2nd map is the total week 1 rainfall. Not much.

The last 0z GEFS had a bit less rain for Argentina.

BOT 2 meal calls

Good call yesterday, tjc!

Last 12z GEFS for total rain the next 384 hours.

Rains moving up in the forecast. Possible good rain event at the very end of this week, mainly north/northeast Argentina and missing key central/southwestern areas.

https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/countrysummary/default.aspx?id=BR

https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/crop_production_maps/Brazil/Municipality/Brazil_Soybean.png

https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/countrysummary/default.aspx?id=AR

https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/crop_production_maps/Brazil/Municipality/Brazil_Total_Coffee.png

Minas Gerais weather counts the most!

Rains miss even more of the Argentina belt than before. Only the far north sees decent  rains.

Westcentral Brazil is now getting a bit dry too. 

Not enough rain….too much rain.  Take your pick.  

Thanks, Jim!

With regards to too much rains in those areas. I have to disagree with the idea in the article that there is a harvest delaying problem there.

1. We still have a month to go until the main harvesting 

2. Rains now are much more valuable in adding yield than they are in delaying harvest.

3. The areas they describe as being too wet are actually going to get a bit too dry in the forecast for the VAST MAJORITY of the crop still growing.

4. The crop was planted late so the harvest will also be late.

https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/countrysummary/default.aspx?id=BR

Good stuff Mike.  Thanks

Big drop in soybean conditions in Argentina reported on Friday.  Along with disappointing rains.  

Pretty big shift southwestward in the 2"+ rain band in light blue on the last 18z GEFS, all of it covering prime soybean growing ground in Argentina:

Much of the additional rain was taken away overnight. Last 6z GEFS below.

Rain amounts went UP for Argentina on the last few model runs. Rains will be drying up in February for western Brazil, spreading into Central Brazil and #1 producer  Mato Grosso. Maybe that will turn us more bullish?

February in Brazil is still late pod fill, similar to August here but they can plant earlier in Central Brazils tropical climate. Some areas in Mato Grosso were planted late because it was too dry. 

This is the total rain compared to average thru 15 days on the last 12z European model(which is the most bullish in Central Brazil. 

Again, this is where they grow beans in Brazil:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/109553/#109594

Hard to get to excited about marginal pod fill when it’s still a huge crop

Thanks, Jim. Not so big in Argentina!  Thank God for the increase in CO2 which increases water efficiency by reducing the need for the plants to open their stomata on the underside of leaves as wide(stomata open to get the 100% beneficial CO2), which in turn reduces water loss from roots from transpiration. And also boosting yields from that scientific law called PHOTOSYNTHESIS, which the loony climate crisis narratives have completely lost sight of.

This is what they used to teach in schools when I was growing up:

This is some of the mostly hogwash that they teach today(in addition to good stuff-not knocking our wonderful teachers and the great jobs they do!)

#s 1(+1 deg. C)  and #4 (~1 inch/decade) are true.  

The other 6 are NOT true. 

#6 is a galactic sized lie(not enough food)

 Death by GREENING!                                      
                Started by metmike - May 11, 2021, 2:31 p.m.
  https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69258/

#2 is actually funny because it says more tornadoes. (heavier rains are true because the warmer atmosphere can hold ~7% more moisture). Warming the highest latitudes the most has decreased the meridional temperature gradient that fuels the violent tornadoes that do the most damage/kill the most people. Those type of tornadoes have fallen by 50% BECAUSE OF CLIMATE CHANGE!! 

                Re:  Re: Severe weather #2 May 7-8, 2024            

                            By metmike - May 10, 2024, 12:11 a.m.            

Here's the last 6z GEFS for South American rains the next 384 hours.

Mixed bag for very dry Argentina. Not as wet as late last week/the weekend.

I agree, not so big for Argentina, but I think it is safe to say the entirety of the SA crop will be bigger than last year.  

We continue to take out rain in Argentina that needs rain badly. 18z GEFS below.

We added more rain for Argentina, especially the southeast half on the 6z run earlier this morning. Beans have been extremely choppy.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-passes-us-soybeans-despite-brazilian-delays-braun-2025-01-30/

Thanks, Jim!
Trade/tariff war?

We shall see.  From what I have read, both China and Canada wish their economies were doing better.  How far do they push it?  
Conversely, it the US were running $500 billion trade surpluses I know we wouldn’t be complaining.   I’ve said this before, as a country we are horribly exposed to China.  Medical supplies, medicines, rare earth metals, electronics, Taiwan.  At their own economic peril, China could do some real damage to the US and never have to fire a shot.  Trade is great as long ad it isn’t at the expense of national security.  

Long term, the writing is on the wall when it comes to China and India.

The reality is that China and India have a total of 2.8 billion very bright people.

Asian Countries by population (2024)

   https://www.worldometers.info/population/countries-in-asia-by-population/                                                          

Compare that to the United States:

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/us-population/

+++++++++++++++++++++++

That comes out to 8 times more people, just in those 2 countries than in our country, most of them with MUCH greater incentive to work much harder for much less pay than our workers. Again, they are SMART PEOPLE!

There are different ways to manage this but there is no way to stop it. I'm not sure if tariffs are one of  the best ways to manage it in the long run.  For sure focus on cheap, reliable energy(the lifeblood of all developed economies) and on obtaining ownership in rare earth metals, medical supplies, micro chips, other industries of the future.

And for Pete's sake PAY DOWN THE DEBT THAT WILL CRUSH OUR CHILDREN'S FUTURE!!!!!!!

                   The World in 2050                                                            

                                                          The long view: how will the global economic order change by 2050?                                                                

https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/research-insights/economy/the-world-in-2050.html

15 day anomalies in South America from the European Ensemble model. Especially bullish for coffee!

That is where the US really falls behind.  Our education system.  

I knoe I have mentioned this before too.  I fail to see how China is going to be able to continue their economic path in the face of a significant population decline.  Considering a lot of their wealth is in real estate, a diminishing amount of people to buy real estate is not going to help values

The last 90 days are usually a very wet period for South America:

This was how much LESS THAN average rain fell for 90 days:

The last 30 days have been especially dry:

This was the % of average for those 30 days:

Argentina bean yields will come in horrible in the areas that don't get massive relief this month. 

With Brazil @ close to 170 million tons and Argentina currently @ 49 million tons, that total crop is firmly in record territory.  It Arg dropped to 30 million tons it would still be a very solid SA crop

2 week rainfall anomaly from the last 0z European Ensemble model. Extremely bullish for anything growing in EastCentral Brazil(coffee). This would include beans that are still in pod filling stage there.

The biggest problem with trading weather is that news about Trumps tariffs will trump news about anything else! 

++++++++++++++++++

The modest rainfall deficits in northern Argentina are NOT bullish because this is MORE rain that previous forecasts.and the southern areas will get deluged.

Some big rains catching some extremely dry areas of Argentina pressuring beans!

https://www.accuweather.com/en/ar/rosario/11222/weather-forecast/11222

Huge rains on top of the driest spots in Argentina the next 2 weeks.

Drying out in southeast Brazil but is this too late to hurt the crop there with ample soil moisture and late pod fill to early harvest in some spots?

2 week rains compared to average below:

Temperatures compared to average below in degrees C:

WASDE report tomorrow morning

Great reminder, cutworm. I wasn't even thinking about that.

384 hour rains from the last 6z GEFS. We completely flip flopped from recent weather. NOW, we are mega bearish in Argentina with much needed rains and BULLISH in southern/southeastern Brazil with rains drying up........but the time frame is like mid/late August in the US......very late in the growing season!

Here's the weather, which has flip flopped a bit from the recent pattern. The dry places in Argentina will get the most rain and this is pretty bearish but Brazil will really dry out. It's pretty late in the growing season in SA. 2 week rains compared to average below:

Massive rains in Argentina.........coming pretty late in the growing/pod fill season for beans. 4 inches in key growing areas the next 2 weeks. 

Still mostly dry for Coffee. Total rains below.

2 week anomaly below: