Coffee has taken off like a rocket!!! WOW!!!
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coffee
1. 50 years.
2. 25 years
3. 5 years
4. 1 year
5. 1 month
6. 1 week
This is where they grow coffee:
https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/crop_production_maps/Brazil/Municipality/Brazil_Total_Coffee.png
Recent rainfall amounts:
30 days:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Precip_Monitoring/Figures/global/n.30day.figb.gif
90 days:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Precip_Monitoring/Figures/global/n.90day.figb.gif
180 days:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Precip_Monitoring/Figures/global/n.180day.figb.gif
15 day rainfall anomoly
COFFEE HARVEST CALENDAR
https://shop.list-beisler.coffee/media/wysiwyg/210603_L_B_Harvest_Calendar_1.pdf
It's Biden's fault. (heheh)
Funny, joj!
One of your favorite sources is using one of their(and most of the media's) favorite reasons to blame this on:
Wholesale coffee prices are trading near a 50-year high because of shortages related to extreme weather and increased global demand.
Dec 28, 2024 In recent years, repeated droughts and flooding have strained the global supply of coffee, frequently causing prices to soar, as climate change has done for other staples
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The article is pay walled but no need to read it to understand the point. They continue to blame all extreme natural variation of weather that is expected from meteorology/climate 101 on climate change. Even conditions that are not as bad as the past, are now unprecedented and caused by climate change.
At times like this, not one time have I ever read about this indisputable fact, based on the law of photosynthesis that contributes much more of a UNIVERSAL positive on everything that grows in the ground than every negative combined from the speculated impact of a fake climate crisis.
Death by GREENING!
Started by metmike - May 11, 2021, 2:31 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69258/
Let's find out specifically how coffee responds to the elevated, entirely beneficial CO2 in the air using scientific data at the site with more scientific plant studies listed than any other site in the world.
Here's how to access the empirical evidence/data from the site that has more of it than any other. Please go to this link:
http://www.co2science.org/data/data.php
Go to plant growth data base:
http://www.co2science.org/data/plant_growth/plantgrowth.php
Go to plant dry weight(biomass):
http://www.co2science.org/data/plant_growth/dry/dry_subject.php
Pick the name of a plant, any plant and go to it based on its starting letter. Let's pick coffee. Go to the letter C: http://www.co2science.org/data/plant_growth/dry/dry_subject_c.php
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Then scroll down until you see coffee. This is what you get:
1. The first number is the number of studies.
2. Response in growth from increasing beneficial CO2 by 300 ppm.
3. Standard error
| Coffea arabica [Coffee] | 7 | 42.7% | 8.1% | ||||||
| Coffea arabusta [Coffee] | 2 | 175.5% | 76.7% | ||||||
| Coffee [Coffea arabica] | 7 | 42.7% | 8.1% | ||||||
| Coffee [Coffea arabusta] | 2 | 175.5% | 76.7% |
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Hitting the actual study will yield these results:
http://www.co2science.org/data/plant_growth/dry/c/coffeaar.php
Coffea arabica [Coffee]
Statistics
| 300 ppm | 600 ppm | 900 ppm | |
| Number of Results | 7 | | |
| Arithmetic Mean | 42.7% | | |
| Standard Error | 8.1% |
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As it turns out, coffee plants respond more robustly to increasing CO2 than most plants because they are so woody and more like trees than they are crops that get planted every year for 1 short growing season. Coffee plants/trees live for decades. Coffee plants/trees grow and accumulate carbon year round.
https://sprudge.com/is-the-coffee-plant-a-tree-bush-or-shrub-181869.html
What's most interesting of all is that coffee and ALL plants do best from elevated CO2 levels during droughts and heat compared to lower CO2 levels.
The increase in CO2 increases water efficiency by reducing the need for the plants to open their stomata on the underside of leaves as wide(stomata open to get the 100% beneficial CO2), which in turn reduces water loss from roots from transpiration.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1002016017604582
These results suggested that drought stress had significant negative impacts on plant physiology, soil carbon, and soil enzyme activities, whereas elevated CO2 and plant physiological positive feedbacks indirectly ameliorated these impacts.
Now, lets read some typical bs from a really smart scientist thats REALLY biased and says dumb things about climate and plants and very sadly, is the source for JUNK science which is stealing people's intelligence.
https://climate.mit.edu/ask-mit/dont-plants-do-better-environments-very-high-co2
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So plants don't grow as well with elevated CO2 in an open air environment?
I would call the entire planet earth as open air as it gets!!!
Death by GREENING!
Started by metmike - May 11, 2021, 2:31 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69258/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69258/#69259
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69258/#70805
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69258/#71265
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69258/#99597
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69258/#99598
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He also claims that global droughts are deepening from climate change which is hurting plants.
Not using the authentic data!!!
Draw a straight horizontal line across the 2nd graph to see that global drought actually PEAKED IN THE 1980s!
This contradicts the titles of the graphics below that are meant to MISLEAD us.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/2017-state-climate-global-drought
NASA EXPLAINS THE DUST BOWL DROUGHT
https://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2004/0319dustbowl.html
A brief history of U.S. #corn yield growth since the 1860s Notable growth in yields was seen after the adoption of modern fertilizers in the 1940s, which made drought years esp. in the 1980s stand out more than before (compare with 1930s Dust Bowl for example).
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And the current climate crisis is somehow worse than the 1930's NATURAL climate crisis(an entire decade called the Dust Bowl)?
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/56668/#56673
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/67004/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/87422/#87425
We should note that many of these sources never go as far back as the 1930's. This is not coincidental.
And the current climate crisis is somehow worse than the 1930's NATURAL climate crisis(an entire decade called the Dust Bowl)?
None of the droughts we've experienced during our life times come close to this one below. A big part of this world wide, catastrophic famine that lasted for years was caused by extremely LOW atmospheric CO2 levels(plants/crops were at near CO2 starvation) and global COOLING.
Having the same global temperature and CO2 levels today ( 130 ppm less than it is now) would cause food production to plunge 25%.
If you would also take away the synthetic fertilizer that is manufactured using fossil fuels, food production would drop almost 70%.
Dishonest people, especially scientists and politicians continue to use THAT climate as the optimal one and THIS climate as a crisis. Up is down and down is up.
This is the climate OPTIMUM for life on the planet by every authentic definition! Most life would prefer a bit more warming and up to double the current atmospheric level!
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Another 1,000 year rain event
By metmike - Sept. 17, 2024, 2:01 p.m.
You want a REAL climate CRISIS?
This is what it looks like:
Can you imagine if this below happened today? It's less likely because climate change and the current climate OPTIMUM is helping to PROTECT US!
The planet had a REAL climate crisis between 1876 and 1878.
50 million people died! 3% of the global population died from that real climate crisis!
https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2017/12/15/causes-great-famine-drought/
https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC51F..04S/abstract
The 1876-1878 Great Famine impacted multiple regions across the globe including parts of Asia, Nordeste Brazil, and northern and southern Africa, with total human fatalities exceeding 50 million people, arguably the worst environmental disaster to befall humanity.
Without massive amounts of fossil fuel manufactured synthetic fertilizer, crop yields and world food production would drop close to 50%!
Anothersecret about fossil fuels: Haber Bosch process-fertilizers feeding the planet using natural gas-doubling food production/crop yields. September 2019
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/39215/
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https://www.helenacoffee.vn/farming-10-nutrition-fertilizer-for-coffee-plants/
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304423823005393
"The rising coffee prices are part of a larger, global challenge driven by climate change, economic pressures, and geopolitical uncertainty," Yannis Apostolopoulos, the CEO of the Specialty Coffee Association (SCA), shares with Food & Wine.
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This article discusses the potential impact of Trump's tariffs in Columbia, which is something that I would have never thought of.
They also do what all the other MSM sources do. If weather of any kind is a negative factor, they use the blanket explanation that it's from CLIMATE CHANGE, when the polar opposite is the case.
Here's another reminder of the golden rule defining this realm:
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It really boils down to this, once again(Cliff Mass can be counted on as an elite source for using objective, authentic science)
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/03/the-golden-rule-of-climate-extremes.html
The GoldenRule
Considering the substantial confusion in the media about this critical issue, let me provide the GOLDENRULE OF CLIMATE EXTREMES. Here it is:
The more extreme a climate or weather record is, the greater the contribution of natural variability.
Or to put it a different way, the larger or more unusual an extreme, the higher proportion of the extreme is due to natural variability.
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Here's a perfect example of why they get it so wrong using the global drought graph from above. Please tell me where on this graph below, where the climate change droughts are and where the natural droughts are since the year 2000? Impossible because the pattern is THE EXACT SAME! The MSM, in 2025 tells us that EVERY drought is now caused by climate change to the point that they use the terms interchangeably.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/2017-state-climate-global-drought
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Global cooling and LOW CO2 levels are what cause widespread, extremely long lasting droughts with catastrophic global and huge regional famines!
Here in 2025, we are living in a climate optimum with absolute, scientific certainty!!
Causes and consequences of nineteenth century droughts in North America
https://ocp.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/drought/nineteenth.shtml
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Climate change in the United States, with 100% certainty is helping to protect us from widespread severe droughts.
Summer Climate Change in the Midwest and Great Plains due to Agricultural Development during the Twentieth Century
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/32/17/jcli-d-19-0096.1.xml
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We are indisputably living in a climate optimum for most life on this planet(that would still prefer a bit more warmth and a lot more CO2) and for growing crops in the United States!
Wholesale coffee prices are trading near a 50-year high because of shortages related to extreme weather and increased global demand.
Repeated droughts and flooding
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Let's obliterate that false statement:
1. The more extreme the weather, the more it was caused by natural variation and less from climate change.........see the Golden Rule above.
2. Extreme weather is not even the main cause!
a. Orange juice: Citrus Greening by a Mt. Everest sized margin is the reason and WELL KNOWN by everybody in the industry for over a decade. They manufactured climate change as the reason even though climate change and the increase in beneficial CO2 is helping to INCREASE production.
b. Cocoa: Again, extreme weather is caused by natural variation. And again, a pathogen/disease is reducing yields big time in a key production area.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Cocoa- all time record highs
By metmike - Dec. 27, 2024, 12:37 p.m.
The REAL reason! Not weather or climate change.
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https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/04/240423155910.htm
15 day anomalies in South America from the European Ensemble model. Especially bullish for coffee!
The rainy season for Minas Gerais and coffee-land is usually starting to taper off to half the December amounts(wettest) in February but it doesn't shut down completely until April in many years.
This is unusually early. 4.8 inches is average rainfall in February. The forecast is for 0.00!
https://en.climate-data.org/south-america/brazil/minas-gerais-203/r/february-2/#monthly-weather-data
The last 90 days are usually a very wet period for this part of Central Brazil:
This was how much LESS THAN average rain fell for 90 days:
The last 30 days have been especially dry:
This was the % of average for those 30 days:
Argentina bean yields will come in horrible in the areas that don't get massive relief this month.
2 week rainfall anomaly from the last 0z European Ensemble model. Extremely bullish for anything growing in EastCentral Brazil(coffee).
The biggest problem with trading weather is that news about Trumps tariffs will trump news about anything else!
Total 384 hour rains from the last 6z GEFS model. Almost nothing in coffee-land when 2+ inches is normal for this period.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coffee
Real nice, timely update.
Coffeee really needs 1-3 days of consolidation. Then buy a call 480ish ??
The only thing here, tic is that the weather news is the most bullish possible. There can’t be less than 0.00 rain.
What often happens at major tops is that we see a buying exhaustion at some point that happens when increasing bullish news is no longer able to bring in fresh buying because everybody that wanted to buy on weather or whatever. has already bought and NO AMOUNT of new bullish news can bring in fresh buying.
The action today suggests that potential but the extreme volatility at historic tops is insane.
The other thing is that prices this insanely high will cause a reduction in demand.
How much additional supply will be lost from an additional month of dry weather cause?
It might not even be greater than the demand lost at these prices. These fundamentals will only be known at a much later date and the market is trading speculation, emotion and other factors.
Emotions include panic buying by shorts crying uncle, or commercials needing to obtain supplies.
1 day chart below:
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coffee
Almost no chance of substantial rain in most of coffee-land!
14th January 2025
https://wp.cropgpt.ai/fusariosis-disease-poses-significant-risk-to-brazils-coffee-production/
