More to come when back home. This pattern will feature the far southward displaced polar vortex and more frigid air intrusions into the US.
However, in mid February Arctic blasts isually don’t start out as cold in the source region and they moderate a great deal headed south.
That is compared to a month ago.
This guy is really sharp and gives hall of fame tutorials!
Previous threads discussing this:
Major Sudden Strat. Warming: chance increasing in early Jan
Started by WxFollower - Dec. 20, 2023, 9:19 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/101402/
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This is what the event above looked like at 500mb on January 13, 2024!
Re: Major Sudden Strat. Warming: chance increasing in early Jan
By metmike - Jan. 17, 2024, 10:30 p.m.
"Below: we should note the couplet this last time in its EXTREME mature stage at 500 mb early this last weekend. With the Polar Vortex waaaay far south and extreme positive anomaly in Canada to Greenland(where the polar vortex usually is).
In Late December, we had no idea that it would look this extreme 2+ weeks later.
So in early a February, when this next event matures, it could look much different than the map above.
Last weekend map below."
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2-3-25: Current forecast for 15 days from now(2-18-25). Being this far out, the forecast will change DRASTICALLY as we get closer!!!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83856
This is the current AO. The ensemble average is -2 standard deviations below average but the range is nuts. Several members are close to the bottom of the graph, around -5 standard deviations, a couple of outliers at +4 and the majority 0 and -3 standard deviations from average.
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http://appinsys.com/globalwarming/ao_nao.htm
AO BELOW
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This was the last NWS 8-14 day forecast made 2-3-25:
Get the latest update here:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83852
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202502030000
The lower these winds are, the more disrupted the stratospheric polar vortex gets from its high latitude, normal location. Ideally, we would want to see them close to 0 or even negative(going in the opposite of their normal west to east direction. The mean above in dark blue is not all that impressive with this event in mid February.
A large number of individual solutions (skinny blue lines) fro this model show potential for a major disruption in March.!
10 hPa in the stratosphere, is around 100,000 feet above the ground which is where the graph below measures the normally, zonal west to east winds.
https://www.sensorsone.com/altitude-pressure-units-conversion/
The models have become very bullish for a late March SSW
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202502120000
The current, very southward displaced polar vortex in the troposphere, is NOT associated with a SSW (stratosphere-above ). Is this a bit odd. In fact, the stratospheric winds are above average and headed to extremely strong later this month, the complete opposite of what happens with an SSW event.
What's your take Larry?
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By metmike - Feb. 16, 2025, 6:44 p.m.
What we're looking at here is a huge piece of the polar vortex, displaced unusually far south IN THE TROPOSPERE.
This is the 250 mb map, which is over 30,000 feet up. This is almost at the level that commercial jets fly at!
Note the very strong jet stream coming out of the Pacific at the same time.
Red = 150 knots+ which is almost 200 mph that Mike the US Coast Guard guy knows about from using knots to navigate the seas.
The northern/Arctic stream is phasing with the Pacific stream and creating the intense lift in the Northeast which is responsible for the deep low pressure system on the previous page.
The 500 mb map (around 17,000 feet) below shows the anomalies:
The polar vortex has split into 3 pieces here, seen with the negative/blue anomalies(not the one in the Pacific) and displaced unusually far south into the middle latitudes.
The extreme positive anomalies, extend from Siberia to Central and Eastern Canada. This is where the Polar Vortex normally resides in Winter.
Hey Mike,
I don’t know why. A lobe of the TPV has had big south shifts several times this winter while the SPV was near record strong levels!
Thanks, Larry!
I know you follow the stratospheric warming events even closer than me.
Obviously, the stratosphere and troposphere are DE-coupled here.
Models still have an impressive SSW event coming up in March. Could be part of the continued bullishness of natural gas, as well as the huge warm up next week looking to be temporary.
mg trading has become crazy.
Delayed to late March/early April...but the winds seasonally plunge lower then anyways!
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202502230000
Well, we're getting the huge wind reversal in the stratosphere as predicted.
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202503090000
What's that meant in the troposphere, where our weather is?
Not that much. Maybe there is minimal coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere right now?
https://www.psl.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ensmean_nh_alltimes.html
https://www.psl.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/m500z_f072_nhbg.gif
