https://theconversation.com/why-the-price-of-your-favorite-chocolate-will-continue-to-rise-246227
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A good friend at Relevant Radio, that cares about the truth passed this on to me to have it fact checked.
That's what I do! Thanks, Thomas!
First, let's address the cocoa supply crisis, using the truth:
Cocoa/OJ- all time record highs
29 responses |
Started by metmike - Dec. 19, 2024, 8:50 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/109062/
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Re: Cocoa- all time record highs
By metmike - Dec. 26, 2024, 3:50 p.m.
Correction to previous statement. I hadn't fully researched it early but just assumed this was from weather based on all the stories blaming weather and "climate change".
Turns out that this is false. My apologies since I should have known better.
Re: Re: Cocoa- all time record highs
By metmike - Dec. 20, 2024, 10:42 a.m.
As a fellow weather trader, I was thinking the same thing, Larry.
However, I'm not sure where a good entry point would be with low risk. This one might have been a good options play. I never do options because most of them expire worthless but for sure this is mostly from weather and you are right on about that!
Correction: This is NOT mostly from weather!
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In fact, the increase in CO2 is, like most crops massively increasing production. However, I was surprised that the number of studies for cocoa trees was so low.
http://www.co2science.org/data/plant_growth/dry/dry_subject.php
http://www.co2science.org/data/plant_growth/dry/dry_subject_c.php
http://www.co2science.org/data/plant_growth/dry/t/theobromac.php
Theobroma cacao [Cacao Tree]
Statistics
| 300 ppm | 600 ppm | 900 ppm | |
| Number of Results | 3 | | |
| Arithmetic Mean | 31.7% | | |
| Standard Error | 10.4% | | |
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https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/109062/#109193
https://www.dw.com/en/christmas-chocolate-prices-soar-while-cocoa-farmers-struggle/a-70959142
At the heart of the issue is a major shortage of cocoa, after a catastrophic harvest in West Africa caused by cacao swollen shoot virus (CCSV), which spreads from tree to tree and can cause a 50% reduction in crop yields over as little as two years.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Cocoa- all time record highs
By metmike - Dec. 27, 2024, 12:37 p.m.
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Re: Re: Re: Cocoa- all time record highs
By metmike - Feb. 2, 2025, 6:59 a.m.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/04/240423155910.htm
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The impacts from increasing CO2 have been much more POSITIVE for cocoa as it is for all food production:
Death by GREENING!
Started by metmike - May 11, 2021, 2:31 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69258/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/109062/#109173
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Here's a perfect example of why they get it so wrong using the global drought graph below. Please tell me where on this graph below, that the climate change droughts are and where the natural droughts are since the year 2000? Impossible because the pattern is THE EXACT SAME! The MSM, in 2025 tells us that EVERY drought is now caused by or made much worse by climate change to the point that they use the terms interchangeably.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/2017-state-climate-global-drought
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Global cooling and LOW CO2 levels are what cause widespread, extremely long lasting droughts with catastrophic global and huge regional famines!
Here in 2025, we are living in a climate optimum with absolute, scientific certainty!!
CLIMATE CHANGE IS PROTECTING US IN THE UNITED STATES CORNBELT!
Causes and consequences of nineteenth century droughts in North America
https://ocp.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/drought/nineteenth.shtml
It really boils down to this, once again(Cliff Mass can be counted on as an elite source for using objective, authentic science)
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/03/the-golden-rule-of-climate-extremes.html
The GoldenRule
Considering the substantial confusion in the media about this critical issue, let me provide the GOLDENRULE OF CLIMATE EXTREMES. Here it is:
The more extreme a climate or weather record is, the greater the contribution of natural variability.
Or to put it a different way, the larger or more unusual an extreme, the higher proportion of the extreme is due to natural variability.
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You want a REAL climate CRISIS?
This is what it looks like:
Can you imagine if this below happened today? It's less likely because climate change and the current climate OPTIMUM is helping to PROTECT US!
The planet had a REAL climate crisis between 1876 and 1878.
50 million people died. 3% of the global population died from that real climate crisis!
https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2017/12/15/causes-great-famine-drought/
https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC51F..04S/abstract
The 1876-1878 Great Famine impacted multiple regions across the globe including parts of Asia, Nordeste Brazil, and northern and southern Africa, with total human fatalities exceeding 50 million people, arguably the worst environmental disaster to befall humanity.
NASA EXPLAINS THE DUST BOWL DROUGHT
https://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2004/0319dustbowl.html
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And the current climate crisis is somehow worse than the 1930's NATURAL climate crisis(an entire decade called the Dust Bowl)?
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/56668/#56673
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/67004/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/87422/#87425
Re: Re: Re: Death by GREENING!
By metmike - Dec. 24, 2024, 5:31 p.m.
Science Shock: CO2 is Good for the Planet, Peer-Reviewed Studies Suggest
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Other breaking news:
1. Water is wet
2. The earth is round
3. The sun is hot
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Death by GREENING!
By metmike - Jan. 29, 2025, 11 a.m.
Meteorology 101 tells us what happens when the planet sees the temperature of the highest latitudes (coldest places, especially coldest time of year) warmed up the most. This is beneficial warming!
Weather becomes LESS extreme in several realms!
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Climate change means massive amounts of more food for almost all the creatures on this planet........including chickens!!!
Re: Re: : Soybeans/grains/coffee 1/15/25
By metmike - Jan. 28, 2025, 11:39 a.m.
Thanks, Jim. Not so big in Argentina! Thank God for the increase in CO2 which increases water efficiency by reducing the need for the plant to open the stomata on the underside of leaves as wide(stomata open to get the 100% beneficial CO2), which in turn reduces water loss from roots from transpiration. And also boosting yields from that scientific law called PHOTOSYNTHESIS, which the loony climate crisis narratives have completely lost sight of.
This is what they used to teach in schools when I was growing up:
Below is the mostly hogwash they teach today: we have some great teachers, not knocking them. The blame goes to dishonest, biased scientists who are almost all Ds that let their political ideology impact their opinions. The media is even worse. Twisting facts to blame climate change for anything and everything. 1 party is mainly responsible for junk climate science.
#s 1(+1 deg. C) and #4 (~1 inch/decade) are true.
The other 6 are NOT true.
#6 is a galactic sized lie(not enough food)
Death by GREENING!
Started by metmike - May 11, 2021, 2:31 p.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/69258/
#2 is actually funny because it says more tornadoes. (heavier rains are true because the warmer atmosphere can hold ~7% more moisture). Warming the highest latitudes the most has decreased the meridional temperature gradient that fuels the violent tornadoes that do the most damage/kill the most people. Those type of tornadoes have fallen by 50% BECAUSE OF CLIMATE CHANGE!!
Re: Re: Severe weather #2 May 7-8, 2024
By metmike - May 10, 2024, 12:11 a.m.
https://phys.org/news/2013-07-greening-co2.html
Satellite data shows the per cent amount that foliage cover has changed around the world from 1982 to 2010.
Increased levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) have helped boost green foliage across the world's arid regions over the past 30 years through a process called CO2 fertilisation, according to CSIRO research.
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https://www.nasa.gov/technology/carbon-dioxide-fertilization-greening-earth-study-finds/
From a quarter to half of Earth’s vegetated lands has shown significant greening over the last 35 years largely due to rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide, according to a new study published in the journal Nature Climate Change on April 25.
An international team of 32 authors from 24 institutions in eight countries led the effort, which involved using satellite data from NASA’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer instruments to help determine the leaf area index, or amount of leaf cover, over the planet’s vegetated regions. The greening represents an increase in leaves on plants and trees equivalent in area to two times the continental United States.
Results showed that carbon dioxide fertilization explains 70 percent of the greening effect, said co-author Ranga Myneni, a professor in the Department of Earth and Environment at Boston University. “The second most important driver is nitrogen, at 9 percent. So we see what an outsized role CO2 plays in this process.”
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The Lancet on Climate Change: The need for context
Indur M. Goklany
https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2020/05/LancetCountdown-1.pdf
Crop yields with climate change/increasing CO2........soybeans:
Yields have doubled in the last 40 years:
https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Field_Crops/soyyld.php
There obviously are other contributing factors with genetics and farming technology but the +CO2 and weather have been a big plus.
With Corn, it's a different picture because of the introduction of nitrogen fertilizer causing corn yields to triple real fast and nothing to do with CO2 or weather during that initial tripling. However, recent decades have featured a steady increase, along with a steady increase in CO2 and beneficial weather.
http://crazyeddiethemotie.blogspot.com/2014/10/corn-questions-from-food-inc-worksheet.html
https://www.agry.purdue.edu/ext/corn/news/timeless/yieldtrends.html
A brief history of U.S. #corn yield growth since the 1860s Notable growth in yields was seen after the adoption of modern fertilizers in the 1940s, which made drought years esp. in the 1980s stand out more than before (compare with 1930s Dust Bowl for example).
Anothersecret about fossil fuels: Haber Bosch process-fertilizers feeding the planet using natural gas-doubling food production/crop yields. September 2019
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/39215/
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Fake beer crisis/Death by Greening!
By metmike - June 19, 2021, 1:25 p.m.
Here is irrefutable evidence using empirical data to show that the increase in CO2 is causing a huge increase in crop yields/world food production.
We can separate the CO2 effect out from other factors effecting crops and plants with many thousands of studies that hold everything else constant, except CO2.
Observing and documenting the results of experiments with elevated CO2 levels, tell us what increasing CO2 does to many hundreds of plants.
Here's how to access the empirical evidence/data from the site that has more of it than any other. Please go to this link:
http://www.co2science.org/data/data.php
Go to plant growth data base:
http://www.co2science.org/data/plant_growth/plantgrowth.php
Go to plant dry weight(biomass):
http://www.co2science.org/data/plant_growth/dry/dry_subject.php
Pick the name of a plant, any plant and go to it based on its starting letter. Let's pick soybeans. Go to the letter S,http://www.co2science.org/data/plant_growth/dry/dry_subject_s.php
Then scroll down and hit soybeans. This is what you get:
http://www.co2science.org/data/plant_growth/dry/g/glycinem.php
Glycine max (L.) Merr. [Soybean]
Statistics
| 300 ppm | 600 ppm | 900 ppm | |
| Number of Results | 290 | 29 | 7 |
| Arithmetic Mean | 47.9% | 70.7% | 80.9% |
| Standard Error | 2.2% | 7.1 | 8.9% |
This tells us that there were 290 studies with the CO2 elevated by 300 ppm. The mean increase in plant biomass was 47.9% from all those studies.
The individual studies are listed below that.
USA Soybean yields in the real world since 1988 have doubled while CO2 increased by 65 ppm, so we have strong corroborating evidence.
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https://ourworldindata.org/crop-yields
Re: Fake beer crisis/Death by Greening!
By metmike - May 11, 2021, 2:43 p.m.
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/146296/global-green-up-slows-warming
"The paper’s authors reviewed more than 250 published articles that have used satellite data, modeling, and field observations, to understand the causes and consequences of global greening. Among the key results, the authors noted that on a global scale greening can be attributed to the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Rising levels of carbon dioxide increase the rate of photosynthesis and growth in plants."
metmike: Why isn't this paper, based on 250........let me repeat that number 250 published articles using the best technology known to science............getting much news coverage?
Because they don't want you to know this.
From the projections: According to climate models, the future looks even greener. The second map shows what the green-up might look like in the future based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate model, under a scenario in which increases in greenhouse gases lead to almost 5° Celsius (9° Fahrenheit) of warming by the end of the 21st century. Specifically, it shows the predicted change in the growing season’s “leaf area index” from 2081-2100 relative to 1981-2000. The chart below the map shows the predicted changes by latitude. Notice that high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere are still expected to change the most.
metmike: There is almost no chance we will see that amount of warming.
Cocoa prices:
Potentially a major double top and good news:
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/cocoa
1. 60 years-insane spike higher, mostly from the crop damaging virus. Climate change the past 30 years, didn't just suddenly target this area!
2. 10 years-Prices spiked 6 times higher in a year, then the potential double top
3. 1 year, double top
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This is where they grow cocoa:
https://chocolatephayanak.com/unkategorisiert/cocoa-production/
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The rainfall map below geography is shifted way to the left. Africa above is in the middle of the map, Africa below is on the far left. Africa's rainfall has NOT been extremely dry the last 6 months. Nothing unusual, actually.
The brown shades on the right below in North and South America are mostly from the dry weather caused from the current, NATURAL LA NINA type weather pattern in the atmosphere, downstream from the Pacific Ocean(where La Nina/El Nino have the most direct impact), NOT from climate change.
This guy says it best and I love repeating it:
It really boils down to this, once again(Cliff Mass can be counted on as an elite source for using objective, authentic science)
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/03/the-golden-rule-of-climate-extremes.html
The GoldenRule
Considering the substantial confusion in the media about this critical issue, let me provide the GOLDENRULE OF CLIMATE EXTREMES. Here it is:
The more extreme a climate or weather record is, the greater the contribution of natural variability.
Or to put it a different way, the larger or more unusual an extreme, the higher proportion of the extreme is due to natural variability.
