With the extreme temps coming up this week in the northern plains, with minimal snow cover, winter kill is a good possibility. This happened in 1996.
The funds are short for the last 2 1/2 years. I'm thinking that this winter kill will be what causes them to cover and go long.
JMHO
Great post/thread cutworm!
The market has been chewing on this for awhile now........60c lower ago in fact.
A big portion of that spike up took place yesterday AHEAD of the cold.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/wheat
1. 1 week
2. 1 month
3. 1 year
4. 10 years
5. 50 years
https://futures.tradingcharts.com/cotcharts/ZW
%20-%20Commitment%20of%20Traders%20Chart%20Feb%2016%202024%20to%20Feb%2014%202025.png)
https://www.tradingster.com/cot/legacy-futures/001602%20-%20Tradingster.png)
%20-%20Tradingster.png)
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Added:
Funds have turned the ship around, but it remains in uncharted waters. Money managers in the week ended Feb. 11 were net sellers of CBOT #corn and net buyers of CBOT #wheat. But relative to one another, their bullish corn & bearish wheat bets remain historically out of bounds.
Of course we are talking about WINTER wheat, which is planted in the Fall.......goes dormant thru the cold Winter to survive, then grows in the Spring and is harvested very early in Summer.
Extreme cold in the Winter, especially on bare ground(snow insulates the dormant plant below the soil) will cause Winter kill.
https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/crop_production_maps/US/USA_Wheat.png
Constantly updated comprehensive weather:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/
LOW Temperatures next week(the market knows this is coming)
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/
https://cropwatch.unl.edu/winter-wheat-injury-and-cold-temperatures/
SNOW ON THE GROUND MATTERS/INSULATES AND HELPS TO PROTECT THE WHEAT!
https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/index.html?region=National&year=2025&month=2&day=16&units=e
Snowfall the next 5 days. This will fall BEFORE the coldest air hits!!!
This is MORE snow than predicted on Friday for some places.
Snow covered ground also causes temperatures above the ground to be COLDER!
Lots of great information in this report!
https://ers.usda.gov/sites/default/files/_laserfiche/outlooks/110943/WHS-25b.pdf?v=90566
Soil moisture is important right now and the crop was RESCUED by huge rains just before going into dormancy. Soil moisture is good for much of the Winter Wheat crop right now.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83853
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather May 2022
Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
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Updated daily below:
https://mrcc.purdue.edu/cliwatch/watch.htm#curMonths
NEW LINK:
https://www.drought.gov/current-conditions
DROUGHT MONITOR
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
FEBRUARY 13, 2025 BELOW:
JANUARY 28, 2025 BELOW:
DECEMBER 17, 2024 BELOW:
November 26, 2024 below:
Drought reduction caused the Winter Wheat crop to improve 17 points, easily a new record!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/108473/#108781
November 5 below: Drought reduction in many places from S.Plains to Western Cornbelt!
October 22 below:
Oct 8 below: Drought expanding, Plains/Upper Midwest!!!
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Below is the flash drought that clobbered beans during late filling and hurt corn too!
Dryness has spread in the central USA over the last eight weeks. Some 66% of the Midwest (the most since mid-March) is now abnormally dry versus 13% in mid-July. Not sure that this has a huge impact on crop yields from here, but it is something to monitor.
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Wheat opened lower and was under pressure early, maybe from the beneficial snow falling ahead of the cold and likely because it dialed in all the cold last Friday With the big price spike higher.
its slowly clawed back to down just 2c.
