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NG 2/23/25+
49 responses |
Started by WxFollower - Feb. 23, 2025, 11:35 p.m.
EIA report, first injection of the season, earlier than average by a bit. The seasonal bottom is usually when we reached the dashed vertical line on the graph below. From eyeballing the chart, that looks to be in a week or so and the bottom is usually different each year, so not a big deal.
Weather and residential demand for heating/cooling via burning natural gas for electricity is NOT a major factor for price determination here. It's too late in the heating season(absent widespread, long lasting much below average temps) and MUCH too early in the cooling season.
A recession WILL cut back on industrial demand, however. There are other important factors too (exports and production).
for week ending March 14, 2025 | Released: March 20, 2025 at 10:30 a.m. | Next Release: March 27, 2025
| Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Comparisons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Year ago (03/14/24) | 5-year average (2020-24) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Region | 03/14/25 | 03/07/25 | net change | implied flow | Bcf | % change | Bcf | % change | |||||||||||||||||
| East | 295 | 307 | -12 | -12 | 407 | -27.5 | 358 | -17.6 | |||||||||||||||||
| Midwest | 366 | 370 | -4 | -4 | 552 | -33.7 | 457 | -19.9 | |||||||||||||||||
| Mountain | 165 | 165 | 0 | 0 | 166 | -0.6 | 109 | 51.4 | |||||||||||||||||
| Pacific | 193 | 196 | -3 | -3 | 216 | -10.6 | 168 | 14.9 | |||||||||||||||||
| South Central | 688 | 660 | 28 | 28 | 990 | -30.5 | 804 | -14.4 | |||||||||||||||||
| Salt | 181 | 161 | 20 | 20 | 299 | -39.5 | 234 | -22.6 | |||||||||||||||||
| Nonsalt | 508 | 499 | 9 | 9 | 692 | -26.6 | 571 | -11.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Total | 1,707 | 1,698 | 9 | 9 | 2,331 | -26.8 | 1,897 | -10.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Working gas in storage was 1,707 Bcf as of Friday, March 14, 2025, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 9 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 624 Bcf less than last year at this time and 190 Bcf below the five-year average of 1,897 Bcf. At 1,707 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below.
Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2020 through 2024. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.
This was the last 12z European Ensemble model for HDDs in purple. -3 HDDs vs the previous 0z run. -7 HDDs vs average. Weather in not having much impact on natural gas prices here at the tail end of the heating season. We can see the average HDD dashed green line, rapidly falling from left to right on the graph below.
It won't be until May (typically) until CDDs become the main trading item.
Some early season heat in the South the next couple of weeks!
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83852
1. US Heating/Cooling degree days from the last 2 European ensemble model runs. (purple is the most recent 12z run-right is CDDs. Left is HDDs)
2. Same graph for just the SouthCentral region. Note the elevated CDDs. Is this bullish in late March? NO WAY! Note the very suppressed HDDs on the first graph that TAKES AWAY more total DDs than are added by the extra CDDs. In a month, that will flip to a bit bullish. In June/July/August, this same forecast would be pretty bullish.
I think this forecast also lost a bunch of HDDs over the weekend from less Upper Midwest and Northeast cold. At this time of year, however temperatures don't matter much to ng trading.
Lower on the open. I have no idea how natural gas will trade this week.
Another bearish report/injection of +37 Bcf. Note the blue line on the graph below has made the seasonal bottom a couple of weeks early and is now CLOSING the gap with the 5 year average line.
Seasonals(historical tendency) are strongly up here but there is a lot of downward pressure added up from:
1. Mild weather
2. Expected drop in Industrial demand from the Trump recession
3. Increase in supply
for week ending March 21, 2025 | Released: March 27, 2025 at 10:30 a.m. | Next Release: April 3, 2025
| Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Comparisons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Year ago (03/21/24) | 5-year average (2020-24) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Region | 03/21/25 | 03/14/25 | net change | implied flow | Bcf | % change | Bcf | % change | |||||||||||||||||
| East | 298 | 295 | 3 | 3 | 390 | -23.6 | 342 | -12.9 | |||||||||||||||||
| Midwest | 367 | 366 | 1 | 1 | 531 | -30.9 | 438 | -16.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| Mountain | 163 | 165 | -2 | -2 | 166 | -1.8 | 108 | 50.9 | |||||||||||||||||
| Pacific | 192 | 193 | -1 | -1 | 222 | -13.5 | 168 | 14.3 | |||||||||||||||||
| South Central | 725 | 688 | 37 | 37 | 991 | -26.8 | 810 | -10.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| Salt | 202 | 181 | 21 | 21 | 295 | -31.5 | 239 | -15.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| Nonsalt | 523 | 508 | 15 | 15 | 697 | -25.0 | 571 | -8.4 | |||||||||||||||||
| Total | 1,744 | 1,707 | 37 | 37 | 2,301 | -24.2 | 1,866 | -6.5 | |||||||||||||||||
| Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Working gas in storage was 1,744 Bcf as of Friday, March 21, 2025, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 37 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 557 Bcf less than last year at this time and 122 Bcf below the five-year average of 1,866 Bcf. At 1,744 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below.
Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2020 through 2024. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods
May Natural gas in its first full day as the front month.
1. 10 years
2. 1 year
3. 1 day
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas
Seasonals in March turn strongly positive and that typically lasts thru May but each year is different.
In 2020, for instance because of COVID the exact opposite happened and we crashed lower.
That's what weakening industrial demand can do to natural gas prices, so a Trump caused recession is BEARISH natural gas prices.
The weather right now is no longer a major factor at the end of the heating season and before the main cooling season starts
Added: (a cold shot increasing in strength in week 2 may have given us support Friday morning).
https://charts.equityclock.com/natural-gas-futures-ng-seasonal-chart
1. Rapidly falling AVERAGE HDDs on the left in dashed green. We go from mostly mild to pretty chilly late in week 2 on this latest European model in purple that was -2 HDDs vs the previous run in tan.
2. Well above average CDDs on the right but they are still MUCH less than HDDs in early April and not bullish until around a month from now with the same pattern. For instance, the highest CDD(peak) on the chart of the right is still LOWER(bottom) than the lowest CDD on the left.
That's because the scales below are much different and deceptive.
The top of the scale on the left is 15 DDs. The top of the scale on the right is 4 HDDs. So the left side should be magnified by almost a factor of 4 compared to how it looks on the graph in order to establish equivalency.
There are a total of almost 30 CDDs on the right WELL above average.
However, on the left even though HDDS are BELOW average they are 126 HDDs, 4 times more than the CDDs.
We gapped higher on the open this evening, likely because of this: Thanks, Larry!!!
Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming 2-3-25
By WxFollower - March 30, 2025, 1:48 a.m.
Re: Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming 2-3-2
By metmike - March 30, 2025, 2:12 a.m.
Re: Re: Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming 2-3-2
By metmike - March 30, 2025, 11:05 a.m.
The 12z run of the European model did not push the cold as far south with as much gusto as last nights 0z run did.
1. NEXT Tuesday morning 4-8-25 Isotherms spaced every 5 Deg. C. 0 Deg to northern AL/GA border.
2. Next Wednesday morning 4-9-25 Isotherms spaced every 3 Deg. C which make is look colder but it isn't. 0 Deg. down to northern SC border.
NG has held the gap higher, from the Sunday night open which is looking just like a classic, upside break out from a bull flag chart formation.
i was thinking last week that cold in April would not matter but a few days of it apparently is serving as the excuse for bulls to aggressively mark up the price since early Friday….
even though the extra demand from the end of season,brief cold snap is not goimg to make much difference in storage supplies long term.
After a spike higher, ng went down to make new lows but has held the gap. On this upcoming cold. It's basically 4 days worth of unusual APRIL brand of cold. It means almost nothing for the big picture for storage, maybe just a psychologically bullish factor that results in a big oversold bounce at a time of year when ng almost always goes up.
The last 0z European ensemble model HDDs on the left/purple was -3 HDDs but the market still made new highs many hours after that. We can see the rapidly falling, seasonal/average greenline for HDDs.
The scale on the left is 4 TIMES in magnitude the scale on the right for CDDs is. They look the same visually but HDDs are still, on average around 6 times more impactful with DDs than CDDs at this time of year.
Degree days
https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/units-and-calculators/degree-days.php
Degree days are measures of how cold or warm a location is. A degree day compares the mean (the average of the high and low) outdoor temperatures recorded for a location to a standard temperature, usually 65° Fahrenheit (F) in the United States. The more extreme the outside temperature, the higher the number of degree days. A high number of degree days generally results in higher energy use for space heating or cooling.
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People study degree-day patterns to assess the climate and to assess the heating and cooling needs for different regions of the country.
What are population-weighted degree days?
Degree days can be weighted according to the population of a region to estimate energy consumption. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) uses population-weighted degree days to model and forecast energy consumption for the United States and for U.S. census divisions.
We closed the gap higher and the technical formation becomes a gap and crap buying exhaustion signature on the price charts.
I would not place too much significance in it here with so many mixed signals going on, other than it represents a FAILURE for the bulls because there was NO FOLLOW THRU and strong resistance at 4.2 below held like a brick wall.
Despite this, natural gas is still holding its 8 month uptrend.
Also, gap and crap signals are best used, powerful signatures at major tops and bottoms NOT what we just experienced.
NG almost always goes up in April but a recession, always cuts industrial demand.
There's other changes with regards to the Trump administration that could impact prices.
Increase exports = positive for prices.
Increase production = negative for prices.
BTW, Biden was already maximizing NG production but just pretending to be against this fossil fuel for political reasons.
Trump may be able to open up more land for drilling and so on.
+++++++++++++++
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas
1. 1 month-major top March 9. Potential bottom, below 3.8, last Friday morning. 4.2 resistance held today,
2. 1 year-uptrend since the April 1, 2024 low, then July 29, 2024 low-COLD WINTER took us from record amounts in storage to below the bottom of the 5 year range in storage towards the end of Winter.
3. 10 years-uptrend-breaking out to the upside. BEFORE THAT: MAJOR top in August 2022 with LOW amounts in storage, THEN to record production, record injections Fall of 2023 and mild Winters, especially 2023/24!
Last 12z EE. There's that 5 day early April cold snap. -1 HDDs vs the previous 0z run.
Total HDDs are + 20 HDDs vs average which isn't even 1 days worth in January. Interestingly, CDDs on the right were +18.4 CDDs above average, so if we add them together, +38.4 DD's is a bit more impressive.
We're getting unusual chilly weather AND unusually very warm weather in the same period, which not coincidentally is the same reason that we have having severe weather outbreaks this week!
Been busy following our extreme weather!
Natural gas is taking it on the chin during a time frame when it usually goes up. Likely in response to the expected Trump recession which will cut industrial demand for natural gas to generate electricity.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas
NG behaved similarly with COVID late winter to early spring. It ignored some bullish wx and mainly dropped.
Yes, I remember that Larry.
It made its low in June 2020, when the seasonal low usually happens around the March time frame give or take a few weeks.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas
1. 1 month-major short term downtrend at a time of year when prices normally go up.
2. 1 year-breaking the uptrend line
3. 10 years-negating the upside break out technical formation, triggered from the COLD Winter, which caused widespread, very strong and persistent demand for heating in the high population areas. This resulted in a storage draw down that took storage from near record highs down to below the 5 year range.
Note the blue line on the graph. The bottom in storage came early(bearish) and we've closed the gap between a storage deficit and the 5 year average line(bearish). Despite very bullish seasonals. The market has also been dialing in an expected drop in industrial demand from the likely Trump recession.
for week ending April 4, 2025 | Released: April 10, 2025 at 10:30 a.m. | Next Release: April 17, 2025
| Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Comparisons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Year ago (04/04/24) | 5-year average (2020-24) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Region | 04/04/25 | 03/28/25 | net change | implied flow | Bcf | % change | Bcf | % change | |||||||||||||||||
| East | 296 | 284 | 12 | 12 | 362 | -18.2 | 326 | -9.2 | |||||||||||||||||
| Midwest | 373 | 364 | 9 | 9 | 512 | -27.1 | 422 | -11.6 | |||||||||||||||||
| Mountain | 165 | 165 | 0 | 0 | 165 | 0.0 | 109 | 51.4 | |||||||||||||||||
| Pacific | 206 | 202 | 4 | 4 | 229 | -10.0 | 174 | 18.4 | |||||||||||||||||
| South Central | 789 | 758 | 31 | 31 | 1,011 | -22.0 | 838 | -5.8 | |||||||||||||||||
| Salt | 233 | 218 | 15 | 15 | 298 | -21.8 | 249 | -6.4 | |||||||||||||||||
| Nonsalt | 557 | 540 | 17 | 17 | 712 | -21.8 | 589 | -5.4 | |||||||||||||||||
| Total | 1,830 | 1,773 | 57 | 57 | 2,280 | -19.7 | 1,870 | -2.1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Working gas in storage was 1,830 Bcf as of Friday, April 4, 2025, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 57 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 450 Bcf less than last year at this time and 40 Bcf below the five-year average of 1,870 Bcf. At 1,830 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below.
Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2020 through 2024. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.
++++++++++++
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas
1. 1 month
2. 1 year
3. 10 years
NG is a bit lower again. Weather demand for electricity generated by burning natural gas to heat and cool homes in late April is usually not enough to be a price driver.
NG spike up early Monday, not sure why, maybe just from being oversold? but quickly succumbed to heavy selling down to new lows for the move.
We’re only a bit above that right now.
NG almost always goes up in April but not this year.
Anticipated Trump recession and building storage are mega bearish.
Natural gas futures tumbled lower on Wednesday as market participants wrestled with the rapidly evolving details of global trade disputes that could stall the U.S. economy and sap energy demand.
https://www.naturalgasintel.com/
We can see above that NG has been closing the storage gap of 2025 vs last year and the 5 year average.
+++++++++++++
Temperatures last week for the EIA storage report on Thursday at 9:30am. Chilly Midwest/Northeast to TX.
Warm West and Southeast.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php
1. 1 month-very contra seasonal.
2. 1 year-broken the uptrend caused by the cold Winter and huge storage drawdown
3. 10 years-Clear top is in
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas
https://charts.equityclock.com/natural-gas-futures-ng-seasonal-chart
The EIA was a bit bullish vs expectations which resulted in a knee jerk, spike up for a short while but we have come back down from the bearish reality that includes a likely Trump recession from the tariffs.
Note the current storage number below in blue has eroded most of the deficit compared to the 5 year average.
Stocks are still -480 Bcf compared to last year at the end of Winter. The difference is mainly from last year having the mildest Winter ever(a good thing) and this year having a colder than average Winter.
for week ending April 11, 2025 | Released: April 17, 2025 at 10:30 a.m. | Next Release: April 24, 2025
| Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Comparisons | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Stocks billion cubic feet (Bcf) | Year ago (04/11/24) | 5-year average (2020-24) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Region | 04/11/25 | 04/04/25 | net change | implied flow | Bcf | % change | Bcf | % change | |||||||||||||||||
| East | 290 | 296 | -6 | -6 | 377 | -23.1 | 336 | -13.7 | |||||||||||||||||
| Midwest | 373 | 373 | 0 | 0 | 526 | -29.1 | 433 | -13.9 | |||||||||||||||||
| Mountain | 166 | 165 | 1 | 1 | 167 | -0.6 | 110 | 50.9 | |||||||||||||||||
| Pacific | 213 | 206 | 7 | 7 | 230 | -7.4 | 178 | 19.7 | |||||||||||||||||
| South Central | 804 | 789 | 15 | 15 | 1,027 | -21.7 | 863 | -6.8 | |||||||||||||||||
| Salt | 242 | 233 | 9 | 9 | 300 | -19.3 | 259 | -6.6 | |||||||||||||||||
| Nonsalt | 562 | 557 | 5 | 5 | 727 | -22.7 | 604 | -7.0 | |||||||||||||||||
| Total | 1,846 | 1,830 | 16 | 16 | 2,326 | -20.6 | 1,920 | -3.9 | |||||||||||||||||
| Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Working gas in storage was 1,846 Bcf as of Friday, April 11, 2025, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 16 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 480 Bcf less than last year at this time and 74 Bcf below the five-year average of 1,920 Bcf. At 1,846 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below.
Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2020 through 2024. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.
1. 1 month-strong down trend but the ranges are tightening up. Increasing storage and bearish weather! Prices have dropped $10,000/contract in this short period.........at a time of year when prices almost always to up!!!
2. 1 year. Uptrend from the cold Winter and resulting huge draw down in storage has been decisively broken.
3. 10 years: Fake break out above major resistance just below $4. The surge up from the cold Winter ended when the cold ended. Fundamentals have turned bearish.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas
Natural gas continues to crash at a time of year when it almost always goes up. Acting like a Trump recession will cause reduced industrial demand is on the way.
The chart below suggests that this could be major support but this free fall is going to be hard to stop. There is some major heat (for early Spring) on the way but it's probably too early in the cooling season.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas
+++++++++++++++
Some early season heat but only as much to balance the lack of late season cold!
This was the last 0z European model, HDDs on the left, last run in purple (they were -4 HDDs)
CDDs on the right, they were also down must -1 CDDs. HDDs on HDDs are still seasonally higher than CDDs until early May. A bit unusual for BOTH to be down on the same run but it means less cold in the northern US and simultaneously, slightly less heat in the southern US.
$3 is psychological support for natural gas, which has crashed over $10,000/contract since the start of this month.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas
