EIA report, first injection of the season, earlier than average by a bit. The seasonal bottom is usually when we reached the dashed vertical line on the graph below. From eyeballing the chart, that looks to be in a week or so and the bottom is usually different each year, so not a big deal.

 Weather and residential demand for heating/cooling via burning natural gas for electricity is NOT a major factor for price determination here.  It's too late in the heating season(absent widespread, long lasting much below average temps) and MUCH too early in the cooling season.

A recession WILL cut back on industrial demand, however. There are other important factors too (exports and production).

  ‹ See All Natural Gas Reports

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending March 14, 2025   |  Released: March 20, 2025 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: March 27, 2025 

Summary

Working gas in storage was 1,707 Bcf as of Friday, March 14, 2025, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 9 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 624 Bcf less than last year at this time and 190 Bcf below the five-year average of 1,897 Bcf. At 1,707 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2020 through 2024. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

This was the last 12z European Ensemble model for HDDs in purple. -3 HDDs vs the previous 0z run. -7 HDDs vs average. Weather in not having much impact on natural gas prices here at the tail end of the heating season. We can see the average HDD dashed green line, rapidly falling from left to right on the graph below. 

It won't be until May (typically) until CDDs become the main trading item.

Some early season heat in the South the next couple of weeks!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83852

1. US Heating/Cooling degree days from the last 2 European ensemble model runs. (purple is the most recent 12z run-right is CDDs. Left is HDDs)

2. Same graph for just the SouthCentral region. Note the elevated CDDs. Is this bullish in late March? NO WAY!   Note the very suppressed HDDs  on the first graph that TAKES AWAY more total DDs than are added by the extra CDDs. In a month, that will flip to a bit bullish. In June/July/August, this same forecast would be pretty bullish.

I think this  forecast also lost a bunch of HDDs over the weekend from less Upper Midwest and Northeast cold. At this time of year, however temperatures don't matter much to ng trading.

Lower on the open. I have no idea how natural gas will trade this week.

Another bearish report/injection of +37 Bcf. Note the blue line on the graph below has made the seasonal bottom a couple of weeks early and is now CLOSING the gap with the 5 year average line. 

Seasonals(historical tendency) are strongly up here but there is a lot of downward pressure added up from:

1. Mild weather

2. Expected drop in Industrial demand from the Trump recession

3. Increase in supply

https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html#:~:text=Working%20gas%20in%20storage%20was%201%2C707%20Bcf%20as,Bcf%20below%20the%20five-year%20average%20of%201%2C897%20Bcf.

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Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending March 21, 2025   |  Released: March 27, 2025 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: April 3, 2025                                                                                                                                                                                                               

Summary

Working gas in storage was 1,744 Bcf as of Friday, March 21, 2025, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 37 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 557 Bcf less than last year at this time and 122 Bcf below the five-year average of 1,866 Bcf. At 1,744 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2020 through 2024. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods

May Natural gas in its first full day as the front month.

1. 10 years

2. 1 year

3. 1 day

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

Seasonals in March turn strongly positive and that typically lasts thru May but each year is different.

In 2020, for instance because of COVID the exact opposite happened and we crashed lower. 

That's what weakening industrial demand can do to natural gas prices, so a Trump caused recession is BEARISH natural gas prices.

The weather right now is  no longer a major factor at the end of the heating season and before the main cooling season starts

Added: (a cold shot increasing in strength in  week 2 may have given us support Friday morning).

https://charts.equityclock.com/natural-gas-futures-ng-seasonal-chart

1. Rapidly falling AVERAGE HDDs on the left in dashed green.  We go from mostly mild to pretty chilly late in week 2 on this latest European model in purple that was -2 HDDs vs the previous run in tan.

2. Well above average CDDs on the right but they are still MUCH less than HDDs in early April and not bullish until around a month from now with the same pattern. For instance, the highest CDD(peak) on the chart of the right is still LOWER(bottom) than the lowest CDD on the left.

  That's because the scales below are much different and deceptive.

The top of the scale on the left is 15 DDs. The top of the scale on the right is 4 HDDs. So the left side should be magnified by almost a factor of 4 compared to how it looks on the graph in order to establish equivalency. 

There are a total of almost 30 CDDs on the right WELL above average.

However, on the left even though HDDS are BELOW average they are 126 HDDs, 4 times more than the CDDs.

We gapped higher on the open this evening, likely because of this: Thanks, Larry!!!

                Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming 2-3-25            

                            By WxFollower - March 30, 2025, 1:48 a.m.          

                Re: Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming 2-3-2                                                   

                By metmike - March 30, 2025, 2:12 a.m.            

                Re: Re: Re: Sudden Stratospheric Warming 2-3-2           

                            By metmike - March 30, 2025, 11:05 a.m.            

The 12z run of the European model did not push the cold as far south with as much gusto as last nights 0z run did.

1. NEXT Tuesday morning 4-8-25 Isotherms spaced every 5 Deg. C.  0 Deg to northern AL/GA border. 

2. Next Wednesday morning  4-9-25 Isotherms spaced every 3 Deg. C which make is look colder but it isn't. 0 Deg. down to northern SC border. 

NG has held the gap higher, from the Sunday night open which is looking just like a classic, upside break out from a bull flag chart formation.

i was thinking last week that cold in April would not matter but a few days of it apparently is serving as the excuse for bulls to aggressively mark up the price since early Friday….

even though the extra demand from the end of season,brief cold snap is not goimg to make much difference in storage supplies long term.

After a spike higher, ng went down to make new lows but has held the gap. On this upcoming cold. It's basically 4 days worth of unusual APRIL brand of cold. It means almost nothing for the big picture for storage, maybe just a psychologically bullish factor that results in a big oversold bounce at a time of year when ng almost always goes up.

The last 0z European ensemble model HDDs on the left/purple was -3 HDDs but the market still made new highs many hours after that. We can see the rapidly falling, seasonal/average greenline for HDDs. 

The scale on the left is 4 TIMES in magnitude the scale on the right for CDDs is. They look the same visually but HDDs are still, on average around 6 times more impactful with DDs than CDDs at this time of year.

Units and calculators explained

Degree days

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/units-and-calculators/degree-days.php

What  is a degree day? 

Degree days are measures of how cold or warm a location is. A degree day compares the mean (the average of the high and low) outdoor temperatures recorded for a location to a standard temperature, usually 65° Fahrenheit (F) in the United States. The more extreme the outside temperature, the higher the number of degree days. A high number of degree days generally results in higher energy use for space heating or cooling.

What do people use degree day data for? 

People study degree-day patterns to assess the climate and to assess the heating and cooling needs for different regions of the country.

 What are population-weighted degree days? 

Degree days can be weighted according to the population of a region to estimate energy consumption. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) uses population-weighted degree days to model and forecast energy consumption for the United States and for U.S. census divisions.