I can’t believe how quiet it has been in front of the report. I have a pretty good idea what will happen but it seems like everyone else is running scareded. Nothing is more profitable then a crashing market
Thanks, vinny!
U.S. corn acres land above the average trade guess, soybeans and wheat come in below.
@kannbwx
5m
No corn or soybean surprises in March 1 stocks, which land on or close to trade estimates. Wheat stocks came in a little heavier.
U.S. cotton planting intentions come in at the lowest end of the trade estimates. Believe this would be a 10-year low in cotton area.
It was a big nothing burger.
U.S. #wheat plantings come in well below the average trade estimate, including the smallest spring wheat area since 1970.
U.S. farmers reported intentions to plant 309.9M principal crop acres in 2025, down 0.4% on the year and the smallest reported in March since... (??) Small overall acres incl. huge corn acres = 55-year low in spring wheat acres, 10-year low in cotton acres
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This was one potential argument against super high U.S. #corn acres - they historically account for less than 30% of all U.S. crop plantings. But this year's 30.8% is significantly higher than in past years, highlighting corn's current attractiveness vs competitor crops.
U.S. farmers this spring intend to plant the largest #corn area since 2013, some 4.73M more acres than last year. The top 8 states (75% of production) are adding 2.4M corn acres vs last year. The remaining 40 states are adding 2.33M acres.
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U.S. farmers in 2025 intend to plant 95.3M #corn acres, a 12-year high and up 5.2% on the year. Ohio was the only major state to report lower plantings on the year.
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Analysts missed U.S. #corn plantings by 965,000 acres (1%), their best March performance since 2015. Their 267k-acre miss in #soybeans was their 2nd best in over a decade. However, both corn & soy acres have landed outside the range of trade estimates in 4 of the last 6 Junes.
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Although Brazil recently challenged USA's title as top #corn exporter, USA still greatly outproduces its rival suppliers with a corn crop ~1.8x that of Argentina, Brazil & Ukraine combined. However, the AR+BR+UA crop has risen ~43% over the last decade while USA's is up ~13%.
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Karen Braun
@kannbwx
USA is still the world's leading #corn exporter, though it had considerably more dominance a couple decades ago. Brazil/Argentina/Ukraine exports surged in 2011/12, again in 2014/15 and again around 2018/19. Recently, these three export about 67% more than ten years ago.
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Although Brazil recently challenged USA's title as top #corn exporter, USA still greatly outproduces its rival suppliers with a corn crop ~1.8x that of Argentina, Brazil & Ukraine combined. However, the AR+BR+UA crop has risen ~43% over the last decade while USA's is up ~13%.
This builds on the export post from the other day. USA's #corn crop is huge, but its rivals export relatively more of their harvests. % of annual corn crop exported, recent 5yr averages:
