I've been trading many years but I have to admit I am stumped, I have never traded a tariff market making day.
Will we have to 10:45 am fake out? Buy the rumor,sell the fact? I had a good gain yesterday,maybe stay on the sidelines?
Thanks much, Mike!
Plenty of unprecedented things going on right now and extreme uncertainty!
And I do not see what else we are supposed to do to end this fiasco of abuse. The tariff situation is so bad because America has allowed it to escalate for decades of abuse by others.
Same with our debt of 37 trillion. We have never been brave enough to take the pain to solve the debt issue.
In the end you take out the noise and only look at the charts. We have been in a wedge pattern for a long time and continue within the pattern. Sell the top and buy the bottom. Some day it will break through.
Most of the so called "abuse" is simply a trade imbalance caused by many to most of our trading partners not needing to pay their employees the huge labor wages that include wonderful benefits that us Americans demand.
In addition, the cost for many parts and raw materials may be cheaper. As a result, their production costs are MUCH lower and they can sell products MUCH cheaper than the same products that we sell.
Why isn't Trump telling the truth about that?
Instead, he uses fairy tale tariffs on us with deranged math and manufactured Trump explanations to justify actions that destroy free trade and punish everybody.
When I first saw his tariff numbers, I thought it was somebody that had doctored the image to make a joke.
This is no joke!
There is no fixing the trade imbalance. It exists because of the difference between poor countries and rich countries. Unless we want to become a poor country and work for a fraction of what our current high wages are........it's one of the fundamental differences that allows other countries to produce products cheaper than us.
It may seem like a penalty but its just a fundamental, authentic dynamic that defines the natural differences in the global economies. It's a consequence of us being a rich country(that can afford to pay more for the same reason that things we make COST MORE which will always cause the trade imbalances that Trump is trying to wipe out with dysfunctional tariffs.
We might as well call them "poor country taxes" that we impose on other countries, penalizing many of them for being more efficient and cost effective, while penalizing OUR consumers by that same amount and speculating that it will cause our production to go up even more than the penalty............while we still pay the same cost of labor and materials to manufacture products here.
It very likely to backfire badly by stifling free trade and REDUCING our exports when other countries respond with REAL tariffs, not the fake ones that Trump has manufactured. At the same time, it WILL cause Americans to pay more for everything that we import. That's a ton of stuff.
This could end up being pretty bad.
One legit way to make things better is to reduce the cost of our producing things in this country.
People will never accept lower wages but reducing energy costs can help a great deal.
Trump thinks that manufacturing companies around the world will come here now. One of the flaws in that thinking is that it takes years to plan, build and ramp up to production. Another one is that he didn't solve the fundamental problem...........it costs more to produce everything in the United States.
What's more likely is they will continue to use countries with lower production costs and not want to lose that most important benefit, while waiting for these tariffs to backfire after punishing Americans, who elect a sane president that reverses the tariffs.
Sadly, there will be permanent damage at that point.
This is just more evidence that President Trump is mentally ill with delusions of grandeur ism. He thinks he can take over Greenland, the Panama Canal. Kick out Palestinians from Gaza, then rebuild it and invite in people that HE and diabolical Netanyahu want to live there.
At least he's doing one thing right in trying to end the war in Ukraine which was the only reason that I voted for anybody in the last presidential election.
Also withdrawing from the fraudulent fake Climate Accord and on a path to reverse the absurd ruling by the EPA, "the endangerment finding in 2009" that the beneficial gas, CO2 is pollution.
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-reciprocal-tariff-math-explained-2054743
As I have posted previously. Trump may not believe in anything except expanding his power. But if he does believe in something, it is tariffs. The Trump bear market continues…
Trump equates trade deficits with America being cheated. It’s not. As Mike pointed out, it’s just more expensive to make things in America.
It is worth noting that on liberation day American stocks got hit more than foreign stocks. Retaliation is coming. it is a bizarre economic policy to start a trade war with….THE WORLD!
Thanks, joj!
Just to provide the other side. Wouldn't it be great if all we had to do was what Trump is doing to accomplish all these wonderful benefits:
https://makersrow.com/blog/top-10-benefits-of-keeping-your-manufacturing-local/
Now, back to the real world:
China and India are not even on this graph below. I believe they would be even less than Mexico at the bottom.
We are fortunate to be blessed with extremely high wages and massive benefits here in the USA.
Let's say you are a major manufacturing company that can locate in any country in the world and have a choice between the USA and Mexico. There are some benefits to staying with the USA or moving to the USA that are mentioned above. However, labor is a huge business cost and locating in the USA, means that you will pay near the MOST for labor. Maybe 5 times the amount as you would pay in Mexico! In addition, raw materials, parts and so on are also likely to be a huge lower factor for Mexico. Regulations are also likely to be tighter in the USA.
The advantages of Mexico, China, India and others compared to the USA for manufacturing and other industries are massive because of the differences in how much cheaper everything is there.
That will not change unless those countries develop more and follow a similar path as the United States. Its not conceivable for workers in the USA to take major pay cuts to be more competitive.
Donald Trump wants to level the playing field by imposing huge tariffs on those cheap labor countries(and others too)
But they will still be producing everything at the same lower cost. It's just that Americans will no longer be getting good deals from buying their cheaper stuff, because Trump's tariffs, ARTIFICIALLY mark up the price before we buy it and that means we may decide NOT to buy it or to buy the more expensive American version of it.
Trump's theory is that those manufacturers will be so upset at losing America's business, that they will close factories overseas and move them to the USA just to keep our business.
Also, we COLLECT tariffs and use it like the government uses our income tax as a source to fund it.
Will those businesses really move here? How long will it take? How many years of Americans paying higher prices for everything need to happen before the benefits of the tariffs start?
Why did Trump go so mega extreme with the tariffs? Why not something more reasonable and why penalize some countries that sell products, like coffee that the USA doesn't compete with?
Is this another negotiating position, where his starting point is almost impossible in an attempt to get the other side to move more in his direction, than if he started with a reasonable position?
If all the MAGA people know that this is what Trump is doing, are the ones in actual negotiations with Trump, huge companies and powerful people, just not as smart as MAGA and don't realize what Trump is doing..........because Trump is just too brilliant for those that don't understand him?
Or, is it something else that makes way more sense?
https://www.helgilibrary.com/charts/which-country-pays-the-highest-average-wage/
Export inflation / Import inflation
Getting workers in poorer countries to make our Tshirts, clocks etc has kept inflation low for decades. Now we are going to import inflation....
Trump thinks ALL business deals are a zero sum game. Economics is about growing the pie, not fighting over it.
China retaliated against the additional 34% tariff (1/2 of the pretend 67% tariff announced by Trump Wednesday) with a 34% tariff. That tanked stock index futures, which are currently way down from yesterday’s big drop. Oh boy!
Thank you, Mr. President, you’re brilliant!
If this 34% retaliatory Chinese tariff on US imports actually occurs, it would mean:
-China’s tariff on soybeans imported from the US would rise to 47% from 3% in 2024. They already had increased 10% to 13% last month in response to Trump’s new tariffs on them..
-China’s tariff on In-quota corn/wheat imported from the U.S. would rise to 50% from 1% in 2024. They already had increased 15% to 16% last month.
-Thus I can’t imagine many US midwestern farmers are happy right now.
-This was Trump’s response to China’s increase in tariffs of 34% to match Trump’s 34% on them:
CHINA PLAYED IT WRONG, THEY PANICKED - THE ONE THING THEY CANNOT AFFORD TO DO!
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114279915827492021
Now have sat here and read every negative word about these tariffs. Every word you guys have written...mostly every word negative and nearly identical to most every major media source in tone and bias.
But what word have I never seen in either your or the media's bias posts. I have yet to see this one word. Now I could of missed it and if so I am sorry but pretty sure I did not miss that word. That very key word to this entire discussion and never mentioned.
Reciprocal yes Reciprocal tariffs. wonder why the exact reason and goal which is reciprocal is never mentioned? So odd isn't it.
And the same could said for Musk. How many stand up politicians who owned the largest electric car company would come out and say the government has no business subsidizing electric charging stations like Mush did? Ohh that's right, zero politicians who stand around all day and who created the mess and now just stand around take pot shots at Musk.
Hey mc,
You do realize that the new Trump tariffs were way higher than the then current tariffs on the U.S., right? Do you realize that the numbers in the column on the Trump tariff tables showing tariffs on the US were way overstated as Mike and I posted about?
the higher numbers are put out for a reason. You help us and we help you. you screw us and we try for reciprocal but after 50 years it ain't easy
And furthermore you can throw most of that list of tariffs out and it would not matter. The US and China are what? 42% of world gnp. Canada is like 2% so this should inform everyone what this is all about
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RkcHP0zm2Z8 a great explanation to a totally unwise, biased the core, and even worse a so called journalist
mcfarm,
You are under the false illusion that Trump's brilliance allows him to see things that everybody else misses.
One thing that HE and his followers are missing is that the 180 or so countries that he put a tariff on are almost in total agreement AGAINST Trump's absurd tariffs.
One of his biggest problems for anybody that wants to take him serious is the way that he presented it earlier in the way. Completely making up other country tariffs on us that don't exist with dishonest Trump math.
That graph, by itself, if you didn't know anything else about this topic was causing everybody's BS meter to be sounding off loudly.
A person that would have the audacity to insult our intelligence with such a nonsense, fake tariff, manipulated spin has something wrong with them in believing that they can actually get many people, other than MAGA to believe it.
The reason that Trump WILL LOSE on this issue is:
1. Almost the entire world is against him and they know it. They have a tremendous amount of power together and will be using it, as China just did. If this was just China and the US, it would be a different deal. But it's EVERYBODY vs the USA and Trump caused it to be that way. He will not win over EVERYBODY, although his delusions of grandeur-ism pathological thinking, continually tells him he will. Just like he will get Greenland.
2. Americans are strongly against this.
3. Real world consequences will continue to punish the USA and Americans for Trumps decision. People with money in the stock market have already started to suffer. Now, Farmers will suffer with China's INEVITABLE tariff on our ag products. It's China and the rest of the world that have all the control here. Trump made his big announcement that went gung ho overboard with everything but the kitchen sink and now he's out of ammo. The United States is now going to be sitting ducks for all those countries that he targeted. Announcement, after announcement after announcement by them of tariffs on the US and nothing we can do about it.
4. If you want to negotiate about anything, your initial position has to be reasonable and make sense for you to be take serious. I made this point to cutworm previously. If we are negotiating on the price of something and I bid $1 for it and you offer to sell it for $1 million.......at least 1 side will not take the other one serious. If it's worth $500,000, then the side trying to get it for $1 is a joke. Trumps EXTREME tariff position is a joke. His absurd, fake tariff #s presentation proved its a joke. What he expects in return is a joke. This is why he's not being treated seriously and will lose.
If Trump was not so delusional with his omnipotence, there would have been a much better way to negotiate this.
a. The most important, would be to be REASONABLE so that the other parties would consider it.
b. The other is to back it with authentic facts and explanations. His crazy presentation with fake tariffs earlier this week is something every single country in the world knows is hogwash. He didn't fool anybody.........except the ones that are always fooled and he can count on that 365 days a year about everything he does.
https://www.firstpost.com/world/vietnam-agrees-to-slash-tariffs-to-zero-after-being-hit-by-46-levies-claims-trump-13877345.html ohh look I must be still under an illusion. You guys just keep shoveling the hole and its get deeper. Wonder who will cave next.
Hey mc,
Have you ever criticized Trump in any significant way other than that he posts meanie stuff at times? Can Trump ever do wrong in your mind?
Thanks, mcfarm,
Everybody is on to what he is doing and what the impact it will have..........except for MAGA.
https://www.newsweek.com/trump-tariff-math-leaves-economists-baffled-2055505
++++++++++++
What's interesting is that, while I'm not economist, when I saw Trump holding the tariff board with all those numbers that he said represents tariffs by other counties on us, I immediately thought it was doctored by somebody as a joke(I didn't watch the live version).
It was that outlandish.
When I quickly realized that it wasn't somebody that changed Trumps numbers to make a joke, I knew that it was STILL A JOKE, only Trump actually thinks people other than MAGA will believe it.
++++++++++++
https://www.yahoo.com/news/why-economists-horrified-trumps-tariff-211158937.html?fr=yhssrp_catchall
They should be horrified. A president this delusional using tariffs, economics and math is basing our economic policies on an impossible to work tariff scheme. ....because of his pathological, delusions of grandeur thinking.
Mental illness is not good for making smart decisions, especially when the one that is suffering from it is the most powerful person on the planet.
Here's a map that shows the REAL tariffs from other countries.
It's probably changed a bit in many places since then but it gives one the appreciation of how fraudulent Trumps fake tariff numbers are:
++++++++++++
https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-TRUMP/TARIFFS/jnpwjmqklvw/
++++++++++
Compare that to Trumps FAKE tariff numbers in blue:
mcfarm,
Your article shows that Vietnam might drop their tariffs on US products.
You and Trump claim that their current tariff is 90% but that is 18 times the REAL tariff rate of 5%.
Being off by a factor of 18 and doing it intentionally to support a delusion scheme means your math errors completely obliterate your credibility and honesty.
2. How did Vietnam end up with 46% Reciprocal Tariffs?
The suggestion by the US Administration that Vietnam had imposed tariffs equivalent to an average of 90% across US products being imported into Vietnam has left Vietnam officials and pundits bemused. However, the actual trade weighted average tariff rate for Vietnam is approximately 5.1%.
It appears that the US Administration has calculated its ‘tariff’ of 90%, by taking Vietnam’s trade surplus with the USA (approximately US$123.4 billion) and dividing it by the total amount of trade between Vietnam and USA (approximately US$136.5 billion).
This also appears to be how the US Administration has calculated “Tariffs” for each of the 60 jurisdictions which have been subjected to a country-specific tariff of more than the baseline tariff of 10%.
+++++++++++
mcfarm,
What Trump did is not even debatable.
The justification by MAGA that Trump is just too brilliant for everybody but MAGA to understand lacks any authentic data or facts to support it. This is just FAITH in him, similar to a religion. If MAGA wants to worship President Trump like he's a God, nobody can stop them but the rest of us require more than FAITH when it comes to his looniest agenda because he's an extremely flawed HUMAN BEING.
mcfarm and others,
Of course you know that I voted for Trump last November.
Also, that I vehemently defend him at justified times and cheer for his good policies like trying to end the war in Ukraine and confronting the fake climate crisis fraudsters.
In this case, he's being the fraudster.
For instance, in that article that you showed because you think it demonstrates his tariffs working:
+++++++++++++++
People that believed his fake tariff graph think that means the Vietnam tariffs of 90% are coming down to ZERO.
NOPE, he bamboozled you. What it most likely means is that the real tariffs of 5% are coming down to ZERO and the other 85% of his fake tariffs that are, in reality the trade imbalance will remain!!!
Vietnam, a poor country will still make tons of really cheap stuff because of really cheap labor and materials cost and be able to vastly undercut rich countries because of an indisputable law in economics related to the natural progression of developing countries.
A tariff can never make that go away. You can cut off Americans ability to take advantage of those cheaper prices, however which is what Trump is doing.
++++++++++++++++++
For people that think Trump is smarter than most economists and too brilliant for the rest of us to understand his schemes..........why is it that Trump had to use a completely fake tariff graph/board and call the trade imbalance a tariff? That's somebody that is either:
1. Extremely dishonest or
2. Completely clueless about economics 101 principles.
3. There is no #3
I'm no economist but everybody should be able to understand my explanations about the trade imbalances and why they are NOT tariffs and why they will always exist.........unless you want to punish American consumers.
The only way to help fix the trade imbalances is to make Americans pay much higher prices for cheap stuff.........so they can't afford it. That's the exact recipe for massive, unforced error/intentional inflation.
MAKE prices go higher for anything not made in the US, so we only buy things made in the US.
One huge problem is that we can't make/grow things like coffee in the US because of the climate. Trump has levied an extremely high tariff on coffee. What the heck? That's just basically telling Americans to take a hike, that he wants to collect tariffs from foreign countries.
He's imposed tariffs on countries that have a 0% tariff on us.
He forced Mexico and Canada into a long term free trade agreement that was favorable to us near the end of his 1st term, then before it was up for negotiating right out of the blocks in his 2nd term, he just tore it up and broke the negotiated terms/commitments that he made to demonstrate that nobody can trust anything he says or agrees to today because tomorrow, his pathological thinking might inspire some new way for him to impose his omnipotence on the rest of the world.
And he ignores advice that's based on critical thinking or what people really want.
Greenland for instance.
Again, this is a person that is severely impacted by his delusions of grandeur that should be getting professional treatment with a mental health expert. NOT reinforced as the most powerful person on the planet, which is providing positive reinforcement and definitely making him worse.
Just like I demonstrated with years of evidence with Bidens gradual cognitive decline, Trumps mental illness is also getting worse and worse.
mcfarm,
Regardless of disagreements, you are always welcome to post your thoughts.
I do understand your positions and why. I also watch Fox News and sometimes they can hit home runs, even a grand slam in between the propaganda and fake news strike outs they use to steal their viewers intelligence for their agenda. This especially includes boosting ratings by telling viewers what they want to hear/see.
People naturally only fact check or are suspicious of things that they don't want to believe and give a free pass to things they want to believe.
The media, politicians, commercial advertisements and others know this and how to use it to manipulate us.
MAGA could easily see the cognitive decline of President Biden when the MSM and Ds were covering it up or blind to it because that was what THEY WANTED TO SEE.
Now, all the people covering up Biden's condition can easily see Trump's pathological thinking/flawed agendas. The ones that were able to see Biden for who he was are completely blind to Trump's issues.
Despite all that, I'm deeply committed to this philosophy.
++++++++++++
Sometimes words can be hurt and often are aimed at people that we politically disagree with.
Rather than me targeting you, mcfarm I would like to think of it as me defending your right to the truth and going after the MAGA message gatekeepers stealing your intelligence. Taking advantage of you, after gaining your confidence for some self serving agenda's.
I know how much you like this guy below:
https://www.newsweek.com/tariffs-donald-trump-republican-critics-full-list-2055640
++++++++++++
I predict that the tariffs will go bye bye because their impact is so destructive and so obvious that enough Rs will unite with Ds in congress to get rid of them.
Not doing so and letting them ride as America is sent into a deep recession because of support from Rs for Trump is the recipe for the Rs to get crushed in the 2026 mid terms.
Even some pro Trump Rs in Congress see the writing on the wall with these very damaging tariffs.
THE TARIFFS HAVE NO FUTURE except in Trump's delusional mind and those that believe everything he says. This will be a devastating take down on a key agenda that Trump has taken an extraordinarily defiant stand on.
The question is, after things start going against him, how will this very unstable person react?
The Rs that have been on cloud 9 since crushing the Ds in the last election, exploiting their advantage to the max. This will soon be in a very defensive posture and practicing damage control for Trumps loose cannon thinking and leadership, applied like a dictator, not a president elected in a democracy.
The massive RESIST protesting has already started and will ramp up with the warmer weather.....turning to rioting when the agitators and extremists get involved.
We just keep going from 1 political extreme to the other and back again, with people vehemently rejecting the extremes of 1 party..............having only the choice of the extremes of the other party. And the extremes have been getting even more extreme with Trump the last 3 months being the most extreme president that I know of.
He's giving the MSM and Ds enough ammo to completely destroy him. .......which they will do using their distorted version of the news to manipulate people.
Just a reminder. The only reason that I voted for the office of president last November was for Trump, in hopes that he would end the war in Ukraine. I commend him on his robust, authentic attempts to end the war in Ukraine.
NATO's hold on Zelensky and NATOs war to get Ukraine appears to be to strong for Trump to bust thru so far.
This is 1 of the times that I like Trump being extreme! Also on his push back against the fake climate crisis fraudulence.
This is what Trump is trying to do.
Short version:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ts5wJ6OfzA
long version in support of above u-tube:
A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System
Thanks much, cutworm!
I get all that but it still boils down to people needing to have unwavering faith in what your first link calls "The MAGA Masterminds"
Those MAGA Masterminds, in reality are delusional, Economics 101 flunkies.
Every time I explain something that contradicts Trumps delusional rationals here, I might as well be typing in a foreign language.
Previous discussions about his agenda to kick out the Palestinians in Gaza, rebuild Gaza, then replace them with NEW people that Trump and Netanyahu want living there.
Or to make Greenland a part of the United States.
If Trump is for something, his flock searches the internet for explanations by smart sounding people that justify it with Trump is smarter than everyone else and we just don't understand his briliant plan. Then, they go off with wild, speculative explanations that sound really convincing to people that want to believe.
However to people that actually understand it........we know its complete hogwash based on authentic realities.
Same thing here with "The MAGA Masterminds"
Trump insists that he wants to continue to maintain the strong dollar so he can control markets and policies but doesn't want to pay the trade imbalance price for that.
He wants the rest of the world to pay a fake tariff penalty as a price for us to be the worlds reserve currency.
Wow, that sounds genius but why would the rest of the world agree to us having our cake and eating it too?
Us being the richest country with the strongest currency that we can use to control global economic monetary and as we often do, political policies............while at the same time impose a price on other countries to make it like the dollar is actually really weak so that we can, at the same time have a huge surcharge imposed on the entire world that penalizes every country and assesses a currency penalty on the entire world to pay for our trading imbalance losses from having the stronger dollar.
This is a loony tunes omnipotent ruler of the planet type philosophy that ignores all the realities that make it impossible. The main ones are:
1. The the rest of the world will NEVER accept this give us our cake and eat it too, crazy scheme.
2. The other one is that it greatly punishes every American with a massive hike in the price of everything we buy from other countries, which will also increase the prices of other goods we manufacture at home.
We can find plenty of convincing videos or discussions from smart sounding MAGA attracting people. Please do post more of them here because I enjoy reading it to understand why people think the way that they do.
Sometimes they have great points and I learn new things.
In this case, the omnipotent rulers tariff penalty on the rest of the world by decree to subsidize our strong dollar so that we can remain the world's main currency will be strongly rejected by the rest of the world.
Having a strong dollar will ALWAYS add to a trade imbalance but his tariff penalties greatly exceed this strong dollar element by multiple factors to compensate for cheap labor and lower production costs that poor countries have.
MOST OF his tariff is to penalize THE FREE TRADING MARKETS that use fair economic principles to decide pricing.
He wants to artificially reconfigure those markets so that the poor countries, practicing efficiency and manufacturing goods at lower costs than us.........are severely penalized for it. With the United States consumer, paying that penally price directly.
So its a lose-lose-lose situation. Our trading partners lose. American consumers lose. The United States relationships with other countries suffers greatly.
His incredibly flawed theory is that it will more than be made up for by our government collecting the tariff penalties and this incentivizing manufacturers to forget all the extremely beneficial reasons they produce things so efficiently in other countries and come to the USA to pay the highest labor cost in the world.............because there is a tariff on the goods they sell at country X, Y and Z. Even if that did happen, the overall losses for years would greatly exceed the benefits, which wouldn't even start for years. But it can't happen on a scale large enough to offset the monumental negatives.
NO WAY THIS WILL WORK. The "MAGA Materminds" are a bunch of economics 101 flunkies with a delusional objective of the US ruling the world with twisted interpretations of Trumps greatly flawed understanding of accepted global economic principles.
To MAGA people here, that made as much sense as:
ojerwr=gr erhgyyd, 23dsf-yh, gmph= souhge =-0-73vfwe.,je!
News that Vietnam is going to drop its 5% tariff (with 85% of the factors causing the trade imbalance remaining) is just an indicator of how this CAN NEVER WORK.
HANOI, Jan 8 (Reuters) - The U.S. trade deficit with Vietnam exceeded $110 billion in the first 11 months of 2024, latest U.S. figures show, as exports from the Southeast Asian industrial hub grew amid a record fall of its currency against the dollar.
The latest reading, released on Tuesday by the U.S. statistics agency, showed a nearly 18% rise in the deficit compared with the same period the previous year. The data confirms the Communist-run country has the fourth highest commercial surplus with the United States, topped only by China, the European Union and Mexico.
The Reuters Tariff Watch newsletter is your daily guide to the latest global trade and tariff news. Sign up here.
00:1202:17
The large gap is seen by analysts as a major risk for the export-reliant nation amid threats from President-elect Donald Trump to impose tariffs of up to 20% on all U.S. imports.
That risk has been compounded by a sharp fall of Vietnam's dong in recent months, with the dong trading near its lowest ever levels against the dollar. The trend is closely watched in Washington as Vietnam is one of the countries under scrutiny for potential currency manipulation.
Why is this not crystal clear? Never mind, that’s been answered a couple of times.
There is a near 0% chance that this will not all fall apart and end up being completely counterproductive, while severely damaging ,people’s confidence in Trumps ability to run our economy.
Again, I voted for Trump to end the war in Ukraine and he’s doing his best. If he fails, it’s not his fault but my reason to vote for him is getting decimated by this tariff issue and other stuff because it’s crystal clear evidence that his pathological thinking is progressive and we have more than 3 years to go.
Biden got progressively worse.
Trump is getting progressively worse.
The resist protesting is just getting started and will become the top,story on many days this Summer as it turns into rioting and violence. I hope to be wrong.
damn MM. the only dates I see on that info are Jan 7 and Jan 8th
Ad hominem
Every time I explain something that contradicts Trumps delusional rationals here, I might as well be typing in a foreign language.
If Trump is for something, his flock searches the internet for explanations by smart sounding people that justify it with Trump is smarter than everyone else and we just don't understand his briliant plan. Then, they go off with wild, speculative explanations that sound really convincing to people that want to believe.
Same thing here with "The MAGA Masterminds"
This is a loony tunes omnipotent ruler
--------------------
Searching the internet is exactly what you base most of your arguments on. You often say you want a different view. Just stating what seems to me to be his plan. Never said it will work, but if you don't know what he is doing well....
Those MAGA Masterminds, in reality are delusional, Economics 101 flunkies.
Scott Bessent
From 2006 to 2011, Bessent was an adjunct professor of economic history at Yale, where he taught three courses
Bessent earned a bachelor's degree in political science from Yale University in 1984.[
In 1992, Bessent was a leading member of the team whose bet on the Black Wednesday collapse of the British pound garnered over $1 billion for the firm. His bet against the Japanese yen in 2013 brought additional profit.[18][19]
Those MAGA Masterminds, in reality are delusional, Economics 101 flunkies.
Thanks, cutworm!
Great point!!!!
I apologize for the misleading term and will pick a different one. My term "flunkies" was not meant to be about what grades and degrees they got from book learning.
It's how they are applying global economics to the current environment.
Exactly why numerous degrees from a college don't compensate for ones own bias and lack of ability to apply critical thinking. Some of the worlds most brilliant people are burdened with this. In fact, most human beings have tremendous cognitive bias but we assume that brilliant people are too brilliant to let that hinder them..........WRONG!
I know many dozens of climate scientists that just don't get that CO2 is a beneficial gas, greening up the planet. They only see bad things. They have become political activists advocating for one side and completely blind to the authentic science that contradicts much of their position.
They use the anti science term "carbon pollution" for instance to describe CO2.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/110136/#110265
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/110136/#110350
The problem is when school educated, credentialed authorities like that along with people in power, especially in politics, distort the interpretation of science or in this current case economics because of their bias/FLAWED thinking and political affiliation in order for them to accomplish an agenda.
I've posted many hundreds of examples of this in the real world here, especially with regards to the fake climate crisis.
In this case, we have the manufactured, "fake tariff crisis" created by Trump and his brilliant but fatally flawed, biased thinking experts.
So let me change the initial verbiage to something that makes more sense, with a thanks to you for recognizing my misleading language.
Those MAGA Masterminds, in reality are delusional, Economics 101 flunkies.
Piease change to: Those MAGA Masterminds in reality are brilliant but delusional with extreme (political) bias which has replaced their critical thinking with a fatally flawed mentality.
I'm not for a moment suggesting that I know more about economics than them.
Or that I know more than many climate scientists about things they learned with 7 years of school that I didn't get with 4 years of engineering, atmospheric and oceanic science at the University of Michigan.
What I use, they don't teach in college. It's called OBSERVATIONAL SKILLS AND CRITICAL THINKING.
This is me applying that skill in my favorite field, meteorology:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/110789/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/110908/
You are trained to use keen observations of the real world and how it interacts with other elements in the REAL WORLD. Not what a theory tells you or a model tells you or what you want to believe because of bias.
I busted alot of weather forecasts early in my career because I wanted to believe my first forecast and didn't change it fast enough.
Since then, the first thing I do is try to see what the going forecast has wrong with it in hopes that I do find something to make it a BETTER forecast.
It feels extremely good to HAVE BEEN wrong when you change to being right IN TIME.
It feels really bad to have been wrong and failed to change it on your own, then riding out being wrong until its too late because the event is over.
Trump and his people have ZERO ability to do this because they came in with massively biased and flawed thinking that they have continued to vigorously defend. In fact, with time Trump is often likely to DOUBLE down on the wrong approach because he feels omnipotent. Reinforcing his omnipotence is MAGA that treats him and his agenda more like a religion based on faith in their leader Donald Trump not on critical thinking or realities.
Scientists and others should all be vigorously applying the scientific method. This states that the scientist, first and foremost should be fact checking and trying to debunk THEIR POSITION/WORK, not looking for reasons to defend it.
It's only when the scientist (or person) is unable to find flaws in their own work, after sincerely attempting to debunk what they believe........that they can be confident that they are right.
In today's world, people only search for information that shows they're right without ever testing their theory. They only search for information that shows the opposing side is wrong. They only fact check things that they don't want to believe, not their own beliefs. Everybody reading this, knows that is true and we all do it, including me because of innate cognitive bias.
It should be the complete opposite, so says the scientific method. If a person is loyal to the scientific method, they can rigorously apply it with making exceptions. Over time, it becomes a habit. The cognitive bias is always still there but the scientific method will trump the bias. I have caught hundreds of MY mistakes before posting something because I always fact check my own work before sharing it. I still make errors here and try to sincerely correct them and appreciate when posters point them out.
Correcting errors and/or flawed thinking ASAP should be the #1 priority for every thinking person. It's at those exact TURNING POINTS, when we flip the learning scale. From processing information that causes us to keep getting dumber to processing information that now contributes to an authentic understanding and discernment......that we can build on instead of the dead end street of using information to justify flawed thinking. This is how people GROW. Reinforcing what we think we know is just regurgitating and ingesting the same information in different forms.
Crystal clearly, the MAGA Masterminds were NOT applying the scientific method because they have totally missed the very fatal flaws in their thinking and usage for tariffs to fix something that it can't and will have like, 10 times the damage to the theorized benefits, even if most of those benefits, magically materialized.
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In today's world, almost everybody applies the ANTI scientific method. Their views are defined by their political affiliation and they only go to sources that tell them what they want to hear/read.
Do liberals go to Fox News with an open mind to understand the R thinking?
Do Rs listen to NPR to get that version of the truth?
Those sources intentionally attract birds of a feather because they are for profit rating based media. Being an echo chamber has launched Fox to the top of the ratings and profits as the go to franchise for Rs. People are in their comfort zone and have whatever they think positively reinforced.
Instead of sincerely challenging themselves and appreciating that maybe their side isn't always right about everything and the other side (that has very bright people too) is always wrong about everything.
It's no coincidence that the Rs here always defend Trump and justify everything he does and are unable to grasp very clear explanations for why some of his actions and thinking is flawed.
The Ds and MSM are the exact same way with the totally opposite, TDS mentality.
I've been accused of TDS before. For new readers, I have spent thousands of posts DEFENDING Trump too the past 7 years............when he deserves it.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/110598/#110604 corrected
Exactly what is so likeable about Bessant. I put the video up a few days ago. Not only is he book smart but his answer to the goof on Cnn was so perfect. "Buy American" Now how brilliant is that for a guy you claim has no common sense.
Thanks, mcfarm!
I welcome all your comments, especially those that disagree with me and respect your right to have opinions.
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-personally-decided-his-new-tariff-rates-report-2055571
The Post reported Friday that the final tariff rates Trump displayed on a chart he held up during a widely televised Rose Garden speech were set just three hours before the address.
The president's decision to use his simplified formula also scuttled weeks of efforts by government officials across federal agencies, who had deliberated over how to set the tariffs while taking into account a wide range of tariff and non-tariff barriers and global trade practices, the report said.
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More extreme evidence that Donald Trump is mentally ill and getting worse all the time. His severe case of delusions of grandeur has progressed rapidly from exactly the conditions that would make it worse. He made his miraculous comeback in November after the media, Ds and justice system tried to destroy him. Now, he's the most powerful man in the world which would inflate the ego of any person. Worst of all, he has 10s of millions of followers with allegiance to him over their ability to think critically with the faith in his agenda akin to faith in a religion.
The evidence of this, using his words and actual actions is indisputable.
President Trump is convinced that he can buy Greenland and despite Americans being against that and the vast majority in Greenland being strongly against it.........he doubles and triples down on this completely delusional idea.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/110340/
President Trump thinks that he can kick out the Palestinians in Gaza, rebuilt it, then invite in DIFFERENT people that he and Netanyahu want to live there.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/110340/#110348
President Trump has decided to take back the Panama Canal.
President Trump has renamed the Gulf of Mexico,the Gulf of America. This one he actually did which has caused chaos and confusion:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_of_Mexico%E2%80%93America_naming_dispute
President Trump has changed the name of Mt. Danali back to Mt. McKinley, against the will of the people:
https://apnews.com/article/trump-denali-mount-mckinley-alaska-2fbff88e1845e066a65cbabfa17284ae
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This has enabled him and encouraged the omnipotent one to come up with the most bizarre, counterproductive decree of tariffs that will with absolute certainty cause, what could be 10 times more damage to everybody than benefits, using his manufactured, completely loony FAKE tariff graph in a monumental display of ignorance of the how the global economic and currency system works.
He thinks that he can just wave his magic wand and make all the trade imbalances that exist because of the core economic differences between rich and poor counties go away and punish everybody with a wild speculative theory that years from now, is will cause all the manufacturing operations to come back to the United States where they will all lose money because of our high labor, raw materials and parts cost. Insanity!
This in serious mentally ill stuff and he get's his people surrounding these decisions to go along with it because thats their job(for instance, who thinks the VP Vance would have made that EMBARRASSING trip to Greenland without it being a part of Trump's delusional plan?).
Every iota of the evidence here is completely ignored by MAGA, justified with the illusion that Trump's mental illness is actually his brilliance and the rest of us are just not smart enough to understand how his brilliant schemes will work.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/106215/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/100785/#100798
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/106042/#106082
Again, I voted for Trump because he's THE ONLY ONE that is trying to get Ukrainians what THEY WANT which is peace with Russia.
An added bonus is that he's destroying the governments support of the fake climate crisis for political agenda and crony capitalism.
https://www.bing.com/search?q=rueters+50+nationals+will+negotiate&form=IE10TR&src=IE10TR&pc=EUPP_ACJB sorry to bring good news and I hope this turns out to be great news
you guys seem to spend most of your time with tds. Just where are you when the markets reverse or for that matter just have an up early morning like today? Crickets I guess.
Thanks, mcfarm!
I also didn't post anything about ng or beans either which are actually 2 of the markets that I follow every day because I haven't been online since late Monday.
You must have missed Larry's post last night(or ignored it from bias)
By WxFollower - April 7, 2025, 8:33 p.m.
- 2/3 rose and 1/3 dropped
- avg of all nine: +3.6%.
- all 6 gains 3.1%+ with 4 of 6 huge (6.6%+) and 2 in the top 12 ever!
- So, this along with the Dow futures being up a whopping 626 gives reasonable hope for a very strong Tue.
Here ya go, mcfarm:
https://tradingeconomics.com/indu:ind
%20-%20Index%20Price%20Live%20Quote%20Historical%20Chart.png)
%20-%20Index%20Price%20Live%20Quote%20Historical%20Chart.png)
I guess this index is a better one. Regardless they are all telling us the exact same thing.
The stock market is trading math and real world global and US economics. It's not fooled by absurd tariff scheme nonsense from a mentally ill person with pathological, delusions of grandeur thinking or Fox News propaganda.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
1. 1 day
2. 1 month
3. 1 year
4. 10 years
%20-%20Index%20Price%20Live%20Quote%20Historical%20Chart.png)
%20-%20Index%20Price%20Live%20Quote%20Historical%20Chart.png)
%20-%20Index%20Price%20Live%20Quote%20Historical%20Chart.png)