What La Nina?? April 2025-Summer Outlook
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Started by metmike - April 26, 2025, 4:15 p.m.

April 2025 ENSO update: La Niña has ended

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/april-2025-enso-update-la-nina-has-ended

metmike: Technically, this last event was the tiniest of all La Nina's but the thresholds that define La Nina and El Nino are not ALL or NOTHING thresholds. When the temperature barely dipped into the "official" La Nina category for a few months, the oceanic and atmospheric response compared to barely above that level was extremely small.

It will go down as a La Nina but might as well have been a La Nada because the temperature impact was more like a La Nada(neutral) than what we would see from a STRONG La Nina!




Comments
By metmike - April 26, 2025, 4:35 p.m.
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How will this impact the planting/growing season weather:

These are the NWS forecasts. La Nada's usually don't provide a great deal of assistance from strong analogs tendencies!

Long range forecasts have low skill so take this information with a grain of salt

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1



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By metmike - April 26, 2025, 4:55 p.m.
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For entertainment purposes:

Farmers' Almanac Predicts "Sizzling" Summer 2025

Crank the A/C and pour another glass of lemonade, it's going to be a red hot summer across the United States.

https://www.powder.com/news/farmers-almanac-summer-2025-forecast


A ‘Broiling' Hot Summer Is Ahead For Most Of U.S., Forecasts Predict

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, The Old Farmer's Almanac, and The Farmers' Almanac share predictions for summer weather.

https://patch.com/us/across-america/broiling-hot-summer-ahead-most-u-s-forecasts-predict

By metmike - April 26, 2025, 5:13 p.m.
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Seasonal forecasts are still low skill time frames, even with improving technology.

This meteorologist proves some of the most insightful discussions ever written in his extended weather forecasts.

This discussion is a month old too.

Summer 2025: Early Forecast for the United States and Canada shows a Pressure Disturbance bringing a dynamic Weather pattern

By Author Andrej Flis

Posted on Published:

Categories Long range / seasonal forecast

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/summer-2025-first-forecast-pressure-disturbance-anomaly-united-states-canada-fa/

By metmike - April 26, 2025, 5:23 p.m.
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2025 Hurricane Season Outlook: Not Quite 2024, But Above-Average US Landfall Threat

The forecast team at Atmospheric G2 and The Weather Company is expecting fewer hurricanes, but that doesn't mean the threat to the U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast is lower. Here's the latest outlook.


https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2025-04-16-hurricane-season-outlook-twc-april



Researchers predicting above-average Atlantic hurricane season for 2025

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2025-04-pressrelease.pdf

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Hurricane landfalling probability included in 2025 report

https://engr.source.colostate.edu/researchers-predicting-above-average-atlantic-hurricane-season-for-2025/

The report also includes the following probability of major hurricanes making landfall in 2025:

  • 51% for the entire U.S. coastline (average from 1880–2020 is 43%).
  • 26% for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula (average from 1880–2020 is 21%).
  • 33% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas (average from 1880–2020 is 27%).
  • 56% for the Caribbean (average from 1880–2020 is 47%).

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This was the forecast last year:

                Active hurricane forecast 4-5-24            

                            11 responses |        

                Started by metmike - April 5, 2024, 11:49 p.m.        

    https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/102978/

By metmike - April 27, 2025, 10:16 a.m.
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I added this at the top:

April 2025 ENSO update: La Niña has ended

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/april-2025-enso-update-la-nina-has-ended

metmike: Technically, this last event was the tiniest of all La Nina's but the thresholds that define La Nina and El Nino are not ALL or NOTHING thresholds. When the temperature barely dipped into the "official" La Nina category for a few months, the oceanic and atmospheric response compared to barely above that level was extremely small.

It will go down as a La Nina but might as well have been a La Nada because the temperature impact was more like a La Nada(neutral) than what we would see from a STRONG La Nina!