How will this impact the planting/growing season weather:

These are the NWS forecasts. La Nada's usually don't provide a great deal of assistance from strong analogs tendencies!

Long range forecasts have low skill so take this information with a grain of salt

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1

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For entertainment purposes:

Farmers' Almanac Predicts "Sizzling" Summer 2025

Crank the A/C and pour another glass of lemonade, it's going to be a red hot summer across the United States.

https://www.powder.com/news/farmers-almanac-summer-2025-forecast

A ‘Broiling' Hot Summer Is Ahead For Most Of U.S., Forecasts Predict

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, The Old Farmer's Almanac, and The Farmers' Almanac share predictions for summer weather.

https://patch.com/us/across-america/broiling-hot-summer-ahead-most-u-s-forecasts-predict

Seasonal forecasts are still low skill time frames, even with improving technology.

This meteorologist proves some of the most insightful discussions ever written in his extended weather forecasts.

This discussion is a month old too.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/summer-2025-first-forecast-pressure-disturbance-anomaly-united-states-canada-fa/

2025 Hurricane Season Outlook: Not Quite 2024, But Above-Average US Landfall Threat

The forecast team at Atmospheric G2 and The Weather Company is expecting fewer hurricanes, but that doesn't mean the threat to the U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast is lower. Here's the latest outlook.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2025-04-16-hurricane-season-outlook-twc-april

Researchers predicting above-average Atlantic hurricane season for 2025

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2025-04-pressrelease.pdf

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Hurricane landfalling probability included in 2025 report

https://engr.source.colostate.edu/researchers-predicting-above-average-atlantic-hurricane-season-for-2025/

The report also includes the following probability of major hurricanes making landfall in 2025:

• 51% for the entire U.S. coastline (average from 1880–2020 is 43%).
• 26% for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula (average from 1880–2020 is 21%).
• 33% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas (average from 1880–2020 is 27%).
• 56% for the Caribbean (average from 1880–2020 is 47%).

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This was the forecast last year:

                Active hurricane forecast 4-5-24            

                            11 responses |        

                Started by metmike - April 5, 2024, 11:49 p.m.        

    https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/102978/

I added this at the top:

April 2025 ENSO update: La Niña has ended

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/april-2025-enso-update-la-nina-has-ended

metmike: Technically, this last event was the tiniest of all La Nina's but the thresholds that define La Nina and El Nino are not ALL or NOTHING thresholds. When the temperature barely dipped into the "official" La Nina category for a few months, the oceanic and atmospheric response compared to barely above that level was extremely small.

It will go down as a La Nina but might as well have been a La Nada because the temperature impact was more like a La Nada(neutral) than what we would see from a STRONG La Nina!

I've been spending some extra time honing in on the forecast for this Summer since the majority of long range models are predicting a strong tendency for hot and dry in the middle of the country.

I think it could boil down to the PMM index mode which is something that Eric Snodgrass discussed at the end of his video today:

  May 7, 2025: Flooding in Southeast | Drought Expands in Nebraska (Drier Cornbelt) | GFS Skill Scores  
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2p_1FFK18Qg

This is worth more discussion and monitoring!

  Open Access

Modulation of the Pacific Meridional Mode on the Dipole Pattern of the CONUS Summertime Precipitation

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2024GL109636

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The top map shows the conditions. A +PMM is caused by WARM water along the coast. 

A -PMM is caused by cold water anomolies along the coast. 

Look at the strong correlation to precip in recent years.

+PMM = increased odds for dry West and wet east.

-PMM = increased odds for wet West and dry East.

We currently have a -PMM with forecasts for that to continue this summer! That would increase the odds of hot/dry in the Cornbelt.

Long range forecasts do not have a great deal of skill.

This was the last European model seasonal forecast for June/July/August:

1. Rainfall anomalies

2. Temperature anomalies

We already have drought in a large part of that region which will be growing the next week. This increases odds of a hot and dry Summer:

Will week 2 turn wet in the Upper Midwest/Northern Plains and bring needed rains?

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83852