https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/april-2025-enso-update-la-nina-has-ended
metmike: Technically, this last event was the tiniest of all La Nina's but the thresholds that define La Nina and El Nino are not ALL or NOTHING thresholds. When the temperature barely dipped into the "official" La Nina category for a few months, the oceanic and atmospheric response compared to barely above that level was extremely small.
It will go down as a La Nina but might as well have been a La Nada because the temperature impact was more like a La Nada(neutral) than what we would see from a STRONG La Nina!
How will this impact the planting/growing season weather:
These are the NWS forecasts. La Nada's usually don't provide a great deal of assistance from strong analogs tendencies!
Long range forecasts have low skill so take this information with a grain of salt
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1
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Crank the A/C and pour another glass of lemonade, it's going to be a red hot summer across the United States.
https://www.powder.com/news/farmers-almanac-summer-2025-forecast
https://patch.com/us/across-america/broiling-hot-summer-ahead-most-u-s-forecasts-predict
Seasonal forecasts are still low skill time frames, even with improving technology.
This meteorologist proves some of the most insightful discussions ever written in his extended weather forecasts.
This discussion is a month old too.
By Author Andrej Flis
Posted on Published:
Categories Long range / seasonal forecast
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2025-04-16-hurricane-season-outlook-twc-april
Researchers predicting above-average Atlantic hurricane season for 2025
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2025-04-pressrelease.pdf
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The report also includes the following probability of major hurricanes making landfall in 2025:
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This was the forecast last year:
Active hurricane forecast 4-5-24
11 responses |
Started by metmike - April 5, 2024, 11:49 p.m.
I added this at the top:
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/april-2025-enso-update-la-nina-has-ended
metmike: Technically, this last event was the tiniest of all La Nina's but the thresholds that define La Nina and El Nino are not ALL or NOTHING thresholds. When the temperature barely dipped into the "official" La Nina category for a few months, the oceanic and atmospheric response compared to barely above that level was extremely small.
It will go down as a La Nina but might as well have been a La Nada because the temperature impact was more like a La Nada(neutral) than what we would see from a STRONG La Nina!