The next round of severe weather is coming up. Looks like a major outbreak tomorrow, Friday May 16, 2025!
The 250 mb jet stream forecast from the last 12z GFS model below shows a pretty potent jet stream that includes an embedded 150 mph jet max. This will cause strong lift and the wind sheer/spin favorable for tornadoes.
This is the Friday afternoon forecast below:
A surface wave along an approaching cold front will increase the lift ahead of the front. There is the potential for a severe weather outbreak in its advance that includes the chance of strong tornadoes.
Very warm, humid and unstable air will be in place ahead of the front.
Severe weather risk on Thursday:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
Severe weather risk on Friday:
There is a GOOD chance that the Storm Prediction Center could bump this up from level 3 out of 5(enhanced) to a level 4(moderate):
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
1. Thursday/Thursday Night outlook
2. Friday-risk could be elevated to moderate
3. Saturday
Tracking the storms!
https://www.wunderground.com/maps/radar/current
Winter Weather Forecasts
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml
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Current Hazards at the link below.
For your NWS and county, go to the link below.
Then you can hit any spot on the map, including where you live and it will go to that NWS with all the comprehensive local weather information for that/your county.
New radar product below
Go to: "Select View" then "Local Radar"
Hit the purple circle to see that local radar site
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This link below provides some great data. After going to the link, hit "Mesoanalysis" then, the center of any box for the area that you want, then go to observation on the far left, then surface observations to get constantly updated surface observations or hit another of the dozens of choices.
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Freeze frame of isobars just before 9am Friday morning. DEEP low in Minnesota.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19&parm=pmsl
Current Conditions below updated every few minutes.
UPPER MIDWEST
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=13#
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=13#
LOWER MIDWEST
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=20
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=20#
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=20# 
It's drawing up warm/humid air ahead of it with cold/dry air to the north. Temperature contrasts/boundaries feed storms and provide lifting/triggering mechanisms.
The first image is at 5pm Eastern, Thursday 5-15-25. It shows 90's in central IL on the hot/humid side of the storm(in the form of the heat index) and 30's in western ND on the cold/windy/dry side(in the form of the wind chill index).
The 2nd one is updated every hour.
https://thermastor.com/dew-point-and-weather-maps/
As I speculated about yesterday, the Storm Prediction Center has bumped up our risk to a moderate, level 4 out of 5 for Friday:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
This is a freeze frame below:
Local NWS for Evansville IN area.
National Weather Service Paducah, KY area of responsibility:
The type of tornado possible on Friday will be EF2+. The type that can do considerable damage. The good thing is that this will hit DURING THE DAY and not at night.
Even with a moderate risk, the overall risk is very small. However, it's for a very small risk of especially dangerous type storms.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enhanced_Fujita_scale
| EFU | Unknown | No surveyable damage |
|---|---|---|
| EF0 | 65–85 mph | Light damage |
| EF1 | 86–110 mph | Moderate damage |
| EF2 | 111–135 mph | Considerable damage |
| EF3 | 136–165 mph | Severe damage |
| EF4 | 166–200 mph | Devastating damage |
| EF5 | >200 mph | Incredible damage |
Here's the deal on wind and damage.
As wind increases the damage massively increases on an exponential scale. This applies to ALL wind.
Severe storms and hurricanes and especially tornadoes that have the strongest winds of all, which means the tornadoes with winds over 150 mph have incredible damage.
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A 150 mph wind does 256X more damage than a 75 mph wind. Let's repeat that. A 150 mph wind does 256x more damage than a 75 mph wind!
Hurricane Damage Potential
https://www.noaa.gov/jetstream/tc-potential
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Less than 1% of tornadoes are F4 or F5 but they kill 67% of the people!
Note that the majority of tornadoes, F0 and F1= 74%(on the old scale) only killed 4% of people and they were probably outside or in a mobile home.
The F4 and F5's were just 1% but caused 67% of deaths.
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https://www.weather.gov/ama/supercell
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Excellent presentation at this link below that describes the different types of tornadoes and the damage they cause. Keep in mind that the EF4 and EF5 tornadoes are extremely rare. Less than 1% of tornadoes are this strong. Today is one of those rare days.
The EF4 and EF5 tornadoes will usually have the HIGH, level 5 risk earlier that day.
Mike Simon Tornado Damage Intensity; Enhanced Fujita Scale
Knowing that a violent tornado may be headed towards your location, thanks to technology and being in a safe place is the main reason for this graph to show plunging fatalities from violent tornadoes. That 1 spike near the end was from the Joplin MO, tornado of 2011.
Note the drop that coincided with the start of the technology(radars and radio/tv communications, including weather radios).
The graph below is logarithmic. Tornado deaths today are around 10% what they were 100 years ago.
https://inside.nssl.noaa.gov/nsslnews/2009/03/us-annual-tornado-death-tolls-1875-present/
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Another important authentic science/meteorology item is that climate change has REDUCED the number of violent tornadoes and tornado deaths.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/110407/#110432
Re: Re: Severe weather #2 May 7-8, 2024
By metmike - May 10, 2024, 12:11 a.m.
Why is this?
Meteorology 101 tells us what happens when the planet sees the temperature of the highest latitudes (coldest places, especially coldest time of year) warmed up the most. This is beneficial warming! Reduced meridional temperature gradient..........weaker cold fronts and jet streams.
Weather becomes LESS extreme in several realms!
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Put on your severe weather seat belts and enjoy the enlightenment and benefits of technology!!!
Don't be scared........be prepared!!!!
Regardless of the stats above, on days like Friday, we have the opportunity to save lives by going to our safest place in the event that a tornado WARNING is issued for your county. Most tornado warnings are for weak tornadoes, less than 110 mph that don't hurt anybody. Friday's tornadoes could have 120+ mph winds.
Have your battery powered electronics charged up in case of a power outage!
Don't be scared...........be prepared!
We've had dozens of severe weather events like this(some with a HIGH, 5 out of 5 risk) in just the last decade. Violent tornadoes have actually DECREASED the past 40 years.
The highest risk will be later Friday afternoon. Low tornado risk Friday morning(and mostly south of Evansville).
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM Watch until 9am, (weak) tornado risk low right now. Storms mainly in KY. Main risk this morning in the watch box is for large hail and a wind gust to 70 mph.
Additional watches coming today, with tornadoes possible this afternoon.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0806.html
The Storm Prediction Center is having a temporary issue with their mesoscale discussions links that should be resolved quickly
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/
I think its fixed:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0807.html
Latest here:
Stalled front along the Ohio River. When the wave farther to the west gets closer(well into the afternoon), it could trigger widespread storms. It might give the stalled front a push northward as it gets close.
Any clouds/rain ahead of it will help a bit to stabilize the environment but this event will NOT be driven exclusively from daytime heating.
https://www.wunderground.com/maps/current-weather/mixed-surface-analysis
The kids should be home from school this afternoon before the severe weather threatens.
Its storming here in Valley Forge,a few miles from Villanova, we need the Pope to save us here in Penna!
Good one, Mike!
The last pope wasn't able to save us from the fake climate crisis by getting on board with the people telling us that we can control the weather(his pontifical academy of sciences in cahoots with the UN) but maybe this one has greater powers
The Climate Crisis is upon us. It will get lot worse over the next few decades as planetary heating shoots past 1.5C by early 2030s.
https://www.pas.va/en/events/2024/climate_resilience.html
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By the way, I loved and cherished the last pope even though he was full of doo doo on this topic.
RIP Pope Francis!
Started by metmike - April 21, 2025, 11:58 a.m.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/111361/
This is the area where the severe storms will first erupt this afternoon, before moving eastward.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/
Note the risk of tornadoes with winds of up to 150 mph as well as thunderstorm wind gusts up to 90mph and hail to 4.25 inches(soft ball size)!!!!
In case a storm like this results in a warning for your county.........be ready to go to your safe spot later today.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0813.html
https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/26/weather/hail-formation-xpn-scn/index.html
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As they told us earlier in the mesoscale discussion, the tornado watch was issued for that area until 7pm. That suggests the severe storms will be east of that area just AFTER 7pm, which is when they will threaten western IN. That time frame could change based on how fast the storms move, once they form.
99% chance of a tornado watch issued for Evansville late this afternoon.
They have wind gusts to 70 mph, hail to 4" and strong tornadoes as threats.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0262.html
Temperature in red(warm)/brown(cold). Dew points in dashed blue.
Isobars/pressure in black.
Updated every 6 minutes.
Lower Midwest sector below:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=20#
12 noon image below.
Constant updates here:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83845
As expected, storms have quickly erupted in MO from nothing a short while ago.
This is St. Louis below. Watching these storms will tell us what to expect this evening, downstream.
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Storm reports just getting started:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html
| Note: All Reports Are Considered Preliminary | |||||||
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Considering the movement, I think we'll have a tornado watch box for our area in the next couple of hours. Storms might get here around 7pm???? First guess.
The Storm Prediction Centers latest mesoscale discussion/update below, valid thru 4:15 pm. Serious stuff inside the purple box which is expected to continue eastward and likely be impacting Evansville area during the early/middle evening hours.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0817.html
Always entertaining and informative: Ryan Hall Y'all.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mTkFSVhoF4g
Crossing into IL. That storm is now in western IL.
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The Storm Prediction Center just updated their verbiage on the moderate risk zone:
It just confirms the elevated risk for us. Serious, potentially life threatening, long track strong tornadoes this evening.
New tornado watch too just issued that includes Evansville. More in a minute!
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0265.html
Local NWS for Evansville IN area. Tornado watch until 10pm but the storms will hit Evansville BEFORE ~7pm-ish.
National Weather Service Paducah, KY area of responsibility:
DO be prepared to go to a safe place if a tornado warning is issued for your county the rest of today.
Some activity developing ahead of the scattered severe storms here at 5pm. So the potential storms may get here before 6pm.
Update: Those are passing south of Evansville(also severe storms much farther north):
Tornadoes to 170 mph in the blue shaded area of western KY.
Still a risk for tornadoes this evening for the entire red shaded area but the storms should be widely scattered and severe weather may just be isolated unless they suddenly develop the next 2 hours.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0821.html
And THEY DID suddenly develop in the last hour.
Elevated risk around 7pm in Evansville:
6:25pm: Tornado emergency for large, strong tornado on the ground in the storm that is currently aimed at around Union/Henderson County KY after 7pm.
This is part of a developing LINE of storms, any of which could be severe when they come thru Evansville around 7pm.
The most severe part of the line looks like it will hit just south of the Ohio River but the storms are developing fast.
6:44pm;
Tornado emergency extended east. Several homes leveled in the past 30 minutes from a large, long lived strong tornado. Passing thru Harrisburg, IL. Currently aimed at just south of the Ohio River.
6:53pm: The severe storms aimed at Evansville have no history of tornado activity so far
6:57pm: Tornado emergency warning extended to Union County Ky until 7:30. Large Tornado is moving east and not aimed at Evansville. This large tornado is the same one thats been on the ground for around 40 minutes. This is called a long track track tornado. Probably at least 150 mph.
7:02pm. Warning for Vanderburgh county. Severe Thunderstorm warning until 7:47 pm. This is better than a tornado warning but a tornado is still possible.
7:09 pm. Large tornado crossing the Ohio River at Shawneetown into western KY.
7:13pm. New tornado emergency warning thru most of Henderson county SOUTH of the city of Henderson.
7:20 pm: Did they cancel the severe thunderstorm warning in V county? It's gone now. Maybe it was a mistake to begin with. The sirens went off here. Severe part of these storms staying south of the Ohio River.
7:35 pm Tornado still on the ground in western Ky, southwestern Henderson County.
7:41pm: Sirens going off again in V county for a tiny sliver along the bend of the Ohio River that sticks out south(around 3% of the county). No threat to the rest of V county from this warning.
7:53 pm: Continued tornado emergency warning extended to Daviess Co to just south of Owensboro.
7:56 New Severe Thunderstorm Warning (sirens going off) for V county from a wave along the northern edge of the storms. Highest threat in SOUTHERN V county which is under the warning, NOT the northern half of V county.
8:08 pm. The back edge is now passing thru the western parts of southern V country and will be out of V county for good in 10 minutes.
8:16pm: This was crazy. I watch Wayne Hart on WEHT to see his radar and interpretation. Their radar images and warnings were different than the NWS at times and different than the warnings and sirens on cable tv at times when it came to Vanderburgh County.
8:22 pm: Still a warning for the storm that caused the long track strong tornado but no longer an elevated, tornado emergency.
Severe storms and tornadoes to our north, west and south but Evansville and Southwest IN dodged the severe storm bullet this time.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html
