Hi tjc!

Everybody's Summer forecast is for hot/dry as discussed previously here:

                What La Nina?? April 26,  2025-Summer Outlook                        

                Started by metmike - April 26, 2025, 4:15 p.m.         

   https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/111494/

However, comparing this to the Spring/May  of 2011 is completely wrong. For one thing, we had a La Nina in place then which increases the odds of a drought in the Summer for the Cornbelt/Plains. We have a La Nada(neutral) conditions right now. El Nino's increase odd for GOOD growing weather. So ENSO neutral is no impact.

More in a minute

With regards to the drought map being more severe than 2011. This 1 map shows how much that's complete hogwash to be comparing the current area of drought to a time frame that they think is some sort of analog.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/TimeSeries.aspx

This was the just updated (this morning) Drought Monitor map right now from our drought/soil moisture page:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83853

With the heavy rains in the 7 day forecast, they will make a dent in that drought area:

1st image is a freeze frame for Thursday morning. 2nd one is constantly updated:

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

This was the May 17, 2011 Drought Monitor. All the drought was in the Southern Plains. ZERO drought in the Northern Plains or Midwest. We had a La Nina then.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/MapArchive.aspx

Again, this is the just released, May 13, 2025 Drought Monitor: Completely different!  We also have ENSO neutral conditions right now NOT La Nina like in 2011.

This type of long range forecast from the European model is what has had the bulls all revved up. 

This was from 6 days ago.

                Re: Re: Re: Re: Re:   Grains/beans 4-13-25+            

                           By metmike - May 9, 2025, 5:52 p.m.            

1. European model 46 day rain anomaly. From this mornings 0z run.

2. European model 46 day temp anomaly.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++=

This same forecast below, updated today, 6 days later shows how unreliable a long range forecast is. Huge change for the Midwest. MUCH more rain and less heat. The Southern Plains, however is hot/dry on this latest low skill forecast. 

This is the only part that's similar to same period of 2011, when the drought was in the Southern Plains in an area that does NOT have drought right now in 2025.

with all the no-til, cover crops, center pivots. minimum til, strip til, green planting used today I doubt there will ever be a 1930's type drought. But if you are a producer in a small drought area its still a drought and still devastating. We{ Central and S Midwest} are in a constant rain pattern right now and have hardly turned a wheel this spring. That is just as devastating. Dry begets dry and wet begets wet.