Thanks very much, Larry!

I'll start this off with today's earlier post from the old thread:

                Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Natural gas 3-20-25            

                By metmike - May 22, 2025, 11:55 a.m.                        

As expected, another HUGE injection of +120 Bcf! Note the blue line/current storage on the graph below is going higher at a faster rate than the 5 year average and has now been  ABOVE it for several weeks and  by an increasing amount each week.

Price seasonals for NG are strongly up in April/May but each year is different. In 2025, the NG market is being crushed by increasing supplies in storage. This is a good thing for consumers! But bad for the trading bulls!

  ‹ See All Natural Gas Reports

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending May 16, 2025   |  Released: May 22, 2025 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: May 29, 2025                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary textCSVJSN  Historical ComparisonsStocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf) Year ago
(05/16/24)5-year average

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,375 Bcf as of Friday, May 16, 2025, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 120 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 333 Bcf less than last year at this time and 90 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,285 Bcf. At 2,375 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2020 through 2024. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

 ++++++++++++++++

The last 0z European Ensemble(purple line on the right) was -6 CDDs(bearish).  It's now the time of year when the seasonally increasing CDDs(dashed green line) are getting high enough for the market to trade it!!!

The price has been under pressure the last week+ as cooler and cooler temps in the forecast keep hitting weather traders computer screens..... including the one for June. 

+++++++++++++

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

1. The last month below. Added heat in the forecast late April/early May. Much cooler mid/late last week and this week. 

                Re: Re: Re: Re: Natural gas 3-20-25            

                         By metmike - May 18, 2025, 10:11 p.m.            

This was a big part of the drop in prices the last 10 days:

   Time to worry about 1930s type drought?                        

                By metmike - May 18, 2025, 9:24 p.m.            

            mcfarm,

You are 100% on the money and understand this well!

The last long range European model, thru July 3rd has cooled off even more and added more rains in the Midwest:

This was the same forecast just 9 days ago:

            I'm speculating that much of this cooler weather is dialed in and within the next several days, the forecasts will start to increase the heat on the back end of the forecast and MAYBE add some support.

The only thing is that June typically slips the seasonals from positive to negative and there is tremendous uncertainty about the economy because of Trumps policies. 

Having a position in any of the markets right now has added risk because an announcement about the tariffs can spike the price in either direction at any time.

If you trade with tight stops in natural gas, you'll get stopped out, then it will go the other way. Big traders using algorithms know where the stops are and they constantly use that to cause an extremely volatile, spiky market........even when the market is trending in 1 direction. 

I haven't traded it for awhile because of that but am definitely not retired from trading like Larry. In fact, I am anticipating some trades this Summer but am not sure. Regardless, gathering information and analyzing it is great fun and free!! Sharing it makes it that much more fun!

Natural gas almost always goes higher in April/May but each year is different.

We crashed lower in 2020 because of COVID(MUCH less industrial demand) and made a major spike low in June. 

2025 has also been weak because the fundamentals are causing massive injections.

Bearish weather demand and increased production caused that. 

https://charts.equityclock.com/natural-gas-futures-ng-seasonal-chart

This last 12z GEFS in the purple, on the right was COOLER in week 2, when temps are predicted to heat up.

The European model actually added 2.3 CDDs in purple on the right. That might help explain the modest recovering from the spike low in the morning. I'm not sure.

However, the updated European model 46 day temperature forecast(low skill) is not that bullish:

This applies to natural gas too with the caveat of the upper level ridging being more bullish the farther east that it is.

                Re: Re: Re: Re:   USDA May 12, 2025            

                    By metmike - May 23, 2025, 3:51 p.m.            

            The markets are closed until Monday evening but the forecasts may turn bullish next week:

This is the upper level forecast at 500 mb with anomalies in color,  at the end of the first week in July from the last European Ensemble model.

Predictions this far out have low skill. However, IF this is close to being correct, corn and beans will likely see some strength from bullish weather in June.

The stronger the upper level ridge is and farther north it is, the more bullish it will be.

Another triple digit injection and gain vs the previous years. Note the blue line of current storage climbing faster than anything else on the graph below:

https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

  ‹ See All Natural Gas Reports

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending May 23, 2025   |  Released: May 29, 2025 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: June 5, 2025                                                                                                                                                                     

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,476 Bcf as of Friday, May 23, 2025, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 101 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 316 Bcf less than last year at this time and 93 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,383 Bcf. At 2,476 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2020 through 2024. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

Much hotter forecast over the weekend has ng prices off to a bullish start.

These were the last 2 runs of the European Ensemble model. The CDDs are on the right, purple was the last 12z run. Green is the climatological average. Note how far above average, they are.......and sustained heat, not just a spike higher. The hottest part of the forecast is actually after this 2 week period, in week 3!

NG price charts below:

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

1. 1 week. Sharply higher open tonight from the extra heat in the forecast. The previous front month, June expired last week and the spike up was from the new front month being July that was trading $2,500/contract higher. So the prices previous to that were JUNE contract prices. We could be on the verge of an upside break out from a little bull flag.

2. 1 year-symmetrical triangle with higher lows and lower highs. My guess is an upside breakout from the heat. 

3. 10 years-symmetrical triangle on a longer scale. Huge supply/storage increase this Spring, if it continued would suggest a downside break out. But Summer heat can change that.

www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/03/091003.asp

The EIA this Thursday at 9:30 am will show a very robust storage increase. 

Near record cool temps over the northeastern 1/2 of the of the country and near 0 AC use. Much of the AC in this country comes from electricity generated from burning natural gas.

The market likely dialed that in already and sharply lower prices on Friday were likely part of that.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php

The last 0z Euro Ensemble was +3.5 CDDs so NG spiked much higher immediately and  got to +2,000/contract from the open!

i bought the open and the low but  unfortunately got stopped out early in the evening with a tiny profit from having a stop too tight

This was the last map of the 0z EE model that shows the huge heat dome overspreading much of the country all the way up to the southern Great Lakes.

.

What's interesting is that the individual ensemble members are not in very good agreement on what the means for temperatures:

The last day of prices below. The open last night was 3501. We are up over $2,000/contract since then.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

Incredible 1 day surge in natural gas today!

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

The last 46 day European Ensemble model came out slightly hotter too this afternoon:

This was the 850 mb temperature anomaly for the last map on July 18th.

7 day temps for the week leading up to that. This will very likely be widespread 100 degree heat because these anomalies are happening in the hottest time of year. 

The powerful upper level heat dome will be centered far enough southwest for some perturbations to track around the periphery of the dome, then turn southward in northwest flow across the Midwest. However, the Plains and WCB will have very high drying rates and below normal rains there would spell rapidly drying soils and drought expanding again. 

Here comes the heat.

This is what spiked the price of ng on Monday by $3,000/contract!

This map will update by mid afternoon every day.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83852

Here's the last 12z European Ensembles model. CDDs are on the right. Purple was the 12z run. Tan was the previous 0z run. Dashed green line is the climatological average.

Heating up in week 2.  EIA out tomorrow morning should be a large/bearish number but the market traded that weather last month when it was in the forecast.  

+122 Bcf. Holy Cow! That's 7 weeks in a row with higher than the historical average for injections.

That has to easily be a record for the month of June, thanks to the near record cool weather. It was a holiday week of course/Memorial Day which lowers industrial demand a bit.

This WILL BE coming to an end later this month after another robust injection next Thursday. The market has been trading that this week/the reason for the big gains but this was a short term shock-a-roo! If the models keep the heat or add some, we will likely be able to overcome it.

Note the blue line below for current storage continuing to climb vs the 5 year average(we're above that) and the 5 year range.

https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

  ‹ See All Natural Gas Reports

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending May 30, 2025   |  Released: June 5, 2025 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: June 12, 2025 

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,598 Bcf as of Friday, May 30, 2025, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 122 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 288 Bcf less than last year at this time and 117 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,481 Bcf. At 2,598 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2020 through 2024. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

Trading got very wild just before 7am this morning. Spiking to a new low for the session, then really spiking higher to a new high for the move and +1,200 in just an hour without much NEW news. (actually, it looks like the end of the 6z GEFS model being hotter might be the reason for the spike higher)

Imagine trying to trade this?

I don't have to imagine it, being active trading natural gas this week for the first time in awhile. It's been very challenging but at least I haven't lost any money on any trades........yet.

Then the spike to NEW lows for the session after the massive, 122 Bcf injection, with a bit of a recovering. The heat is still coming in week 2 and beyond with CDDs just a tad lower vs yesterday. 

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas+++++++++++

10:54 am update: We've completely recovered from the EIA spike lower!

NG sold off during the afternoon session, despite the 12z European model being a bit more bullish with +2.3 CDDs vs the previous 0z run as seen below on the right in purple.

This supportive/bullish change in the weather forecast was trumped by the bearish shocker +122 Bcf injection. Without that, NG would have likely traded HIGHER during the afternoon 

Extremely volatile trading today!

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

1. 1 day/24 hours

2. 1 week-solid support at 3650!

3. Weather models overnight will play a big role in determining  price direction and magnitude of changes. 

This is the first 5 days of the next EIA report. Certainly not nearly as bearish as this last one but still a robust injection  for June. 

Even the report that comes out on 6-19-25, 2 weeks from today will be large for the time of year.

Starting on 6-26-26, 3 weeks from today we will start having more bullish injections that continue well into July.

Mike said: “+122 Bcf. Holy Cow! That's 7 weeks in a row with higher than the historical average for injections.

That has to easily be a record for the month of June, thanks to the near record cool weather. It was a holiday week of course/Memorial Day which lowers industrial demand a bit.

——————-

Hey Mike,

1. Until recently, I posted an annual detailed screed about the history of Memorial Day week NG injections because that week by a good margin averaged the largest injection of the year.

2. That’s because of the combo of the holiday and associated vacations during at or near the lowest total HDD/CDD related demand of the year.

3. I used to have all of the most up to date Memorial Day week DD and storage changes at my fingertips, which allowed me to post tables to analyze.

4. This really wasn’t a June injection as the end of the reporting period is the AM of Fri May 30th. For May, it isn’t a record due to other very high Memorial Day week injections.

5. Due to many NG industry folks every year not taking into account enough of a demand slowdown due to the holiday week and thus projecting too low of an injection, the injection guess average is usually too low.

6. I see that the NGI guess range was +95 to +126. The Reuters median guess was +111. The NGI model had +110.

7. The kneejerk reaction to the EIA report was a drop of 5 cents per NGI.

Thanks very much, Larry!

I remember those posts extremely well. Thanks for your analysis. Yes, I'm aware that this EIA report was for May days, even though it came out in the first week of June but good point for others.

I'll try to retrieve one of your past posts on this.

I'm unable to generate a link to this from our mediocre search engine but was able to take a screenshot. Great stuff, Larry! Did you ever think we would be looking at it 7 years later?????

From 2018:

+++++++++++++++

From 2021:

+++++++

From 2022:

0z European model CDDs on the right/purple were ~+1 vs the previous 12z run so we had a spike higher in prices earlier this morning but have backed down.