https://ijr.com/fed-offers-up-prediction-that-spells-good-news-for-trumps-economy/ any ideas of what this means for America if this estimate comes even close to what is predicted......yes great news for America....again..sad sad sad news for libs who continue to root for the demise of this country. Gee next comes the ideas of lower taxes, strong national defense, strong boarders, and best of all personal responsiblilty
Thank you, mcfarm!
From your article:
https://ijr.com/fed-offers-up-prediction-that-spells-good-news-for-trumps-economy/
The Atlanta Fed’s latest GDPNow model estimate comes after U.S. consumer confidence increased by 12.3 points in May, marking the first increase in five months, according to the Conference Board. Moreover, the U.S. economy added 177,000 jobs in April, beating economists’ expectations.
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These monthly jobs reports continue to be FAKE NEWS!
Let's just do the math on this.
REPORTED May Jobs gained +139,000
Revised(final) April jobs lost -147,000
Change in jobs from previous report -8,000
They did the exact same thing while Biden was in office.
The Labor Department estimated that job growth averaged 174,000 a month in the year that ended in March — a drop of 68,000 a month from the 242,000 that were initially reported. The revisions released Wednesday were preliminary, with final numbers to be issued in February next year.
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Let me show you that graph again. Take away the fake, small increase in jobs in 2025 and we have a serious problem.........now THAT is shocking!
Almost every month we get an intentionally bloated estimate of XXX,XXX new jobs that make the headline news and everybody celebrates over how bullish it is to the economy and stock market.
Then, when the next month comes out with the latest intentionally bloated estimate, they tell the truth about the previous month with a downward revision that takes away many of those jobs they told us were created -XXX,XXX jobs, for instance in the revision this last time.
It happens over and over and over.
Entities reporting honest statistics don't repeat errors from the same side each time.
How many coins do you know that land on heads with every 1st flip.............then on the 2nd flip they always lands on tails???
https://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=1203968&mid=11251519#M11251519 this chart was supposed to come up and did not....Yes charts are charts they cannot predict but sometimes are amazingly accurate,,,,,,,.......right to that very last data point. Under the current circumstances I prefer to hope for the best because there are just so many train wrecks of Biden to clean up.
Thanks, mcfarm!
This was the same group's previous forecast. Obviously, a later forecast would be much more important but it shows how unreliable the predictions are:
May 14, 2025
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) estimated 
that real GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 0.3 percent in the first quarter of 2025, the first negative reading since the first quarter of 2022. As figure 1 shows, this reading was still well above the final nowcast of −2.7 percent growth for what was then the standard GDPNow model and meaningfully above, but closer to, the final "gold-adjusted" model forecast of −1.5 percent.
I have NEVER followed this report and am just learning about it(and sharing) because you brought it up, its fascinating and the markets obviously focus on it.
Note the 90% confidence level of the +139,000 number we got is between 3,200 and 274,800.
NO WONDER the revisions are always huge. The fact that they are usually DOWNward revisions tells us the bias.
This would be like me forecasting the weather tomorrow to be party sunny, with a 90% chance of it being somewhere between sunny and rainy.
Current Employment Statistics - CES (National)
%20U.S.%20Bureau%20of%20Labor%20Statistics.png)
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Looking at that data for the May jobs report which states +139,000, the service sector had +144,000 which was the leader.
https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag07.htm
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Let's look at the past 3 months for a better indication of where new jobs are coming from:
%20U.S.%20Bureau%20of%20Labor%20Statistics.png)
3 main industries gained jobs:
1. service
2.private health
3. hospitality.
4. Government jobs??????????
How in tarnation did government jobs increase by 6,000!!!!
Compared to 6 months ago, there are 69,000 more government jobs. Compared to 12 months ago, there are 142,300 new government jobs. How can that be unless they are manipulating these numbers to make the jobs report look good?
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Here are the authentic facts:
By Reuters
With the latest reductions, reported on Friday in the monthly nonfarm payrolls report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, federal government non-U.S. Postal Service employment has declined by more than 23,000 so far this year.
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Why aren't these REAL job losses showing up in the reports, like the one from The Bureau of Labor Statistics that we got yesterday???
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statistics
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https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate
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https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART
%20FRED%20St.%20Louis%20Fed.png)
If you throw out the spike lower from COVID(and 2 year recovery), the May 2025 number was the LOWEST since October 1977. Lowest in almost 48 years.
The only reason that the numbers were lower, prior to that was that most women with children stayed home to take care of the kids and were not a part of the workforce.
So the reality is.........the May 2025 Labor Force participation rate drop to 62.4%, outside of the COVID spike is the lowest reading during this modern era with working mothers.
Those are the stone cold facts, along with the employment DROPPING by 696,000 this past month!
So the employment figures we get are very dishonest.
At the very least, it appears that what they've done is take all the fired workers from government jobs and categorized them (as well as other lost jobs) as no longer part of the work force so they don't show up as lost jobs.
Labor participation in the work force dropped by .2%. Those were all people that had jobs in April............but no longer have jobs in May but they are no longer using them to calculate employment figures in the monthly reports, like those released last week.
The honest number for May is:
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate
With regards to extremely volatile models like this one, shown to predict the future:
https://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=1203968&mid=11251519#M11251519
HA! They can't even get the past right!
And the reason this particular model is so messed up is because it relies on the bogus government numbers fed into it:
https://www.atlantafed.org/-/media/documents/cqer/researchcq/gdpnow/realgdptrackingslides.pdf
"GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model."
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Garbage in, garbage out
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Garbage_in,_garbage_out
"GIGO" redirects here. For the protein subunits, see Gi/Go. For the Japanese arcade chain GENDA GiGO, see Sega World.
In computer science, garbage in, garbage out (GIGO) is the concept that flawed, biased or poor quality ("garbage") information or input produces a result or output of similar ("garbage") quality. The adage points to the need to improve data quality in, for example, programming. Rubbish in, rubbish out (RIRO) is an alternate wording.[1][2]
The principle applies to all logical argumentation: soundness implies validity, but validity does not imply soundness.
again what a mess in big gov. As I was watching some big time bureaucrat testify before congress I was thinking about all the facts you presented above. This guy was trying to convince congress that he had spent well in researching out of country business partners like The commys in china. But he could not answer after spending millions just why certain black listed corporations sled right thru all his wasted millions and were on our partners in several ventures. Hell who knows maybe our tax dollars paid for that drone balloon that went right over all our military installations and we did nothing.
Thanks, mcfarm!
The drop in the labor force participation rate has been a slow drop for over 2 decades, mostly based on our aging worker population(baby boomers) that have increased those in retirement.
One can guess that this faster than usual drop was from people previously employed by the government that have chosen an early retirement.
A big problem with this (and the real employment drop of 696,000 workers) is that they go from tax payers that are the primary source of income for our government to people that draw money from the government (pensions, short term severance packages, unemployment and social security benefits if older).
I'm in strong agreement with you on cuts in government spending and waste, mcfarm. And doing it the way we've done it before was only increasing government spending and waste, so something different needed to be done.
However, I'm especially for the cuts because it helps reduce the ballooning deficit which is increasingly crushing our economy.
I'd like to revisit this article from several posts up.
What jumps out (literally) is what happened during the Obama years. HOLY COW!
Something doesn't seem right about this.
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THIS source claims Obama got rid of a massive number of government jobs.
Private payrolls have added 7 million jobs over Obama’s presidency, while government payrolls (federal, state and local) have contracted by a combined 634,000 jobs.
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Both of those sources above can't be right.
Maybe Obama DID increase federal government jobs while state and local government jobs declined but the magnitude of his increase in federal jobs at the top is so great that it required constructing a special chart with MUCH greater values above 0 so that it would fit his massive +151.2k on it.
Their last statement is this:
And while the federal government has added 62,700 non-postal jobs, the Postal Service has reduced its workforce nearly 18%, or 129,400 jobs. The Postal Service now employs fewer than 600,000 people, its smallest payroll since 1964.
This suggests that Obama, other than the postal service did add federal government jobs. The article from last month say 151.2K total which is a huge disparity.
Pew Research Center is usually an extremely reliable source but so is Reuters at the top. This is very puzzling. Does anybody have an explanation for this disparity between these 2 sources on the Obama Federal jobs??
Thanks much, mcfarm!
I feel that Rand Paul is the only politician that consistently reflects ethically based principles in his positions. His other voting principles and how he sticks to them are 2nd to none.
It's insane that we keep electing these unqualified people when the absolutely best, no question about it, massively qualified guy is Rand Paul!
His dad, Ron would have made a good president but Rand is THE BEST!
In a field that features cruds and duds, he stands out above them all.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_positions_of_Rand_Paul
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rand_Paul
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cpi-report-today-inflation-may-2025-trump-tariffs/
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https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-consumer-prices-rise-moderately-may-2025-06-11/
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https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/
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Graphics for Economic News Releases
https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm
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With all the job cuts by DOGE, this was inevitable.
06/05/2025
Productivity decreases 1.5% in Q1 2025; unit labor costs increase 6.6% (annual rates)
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OUCH!!!!
Economy Shrank in First Quarter Worse Than Expected
The government said that first-quarter gross domestic product fell by 0.5%, more than economists had predicted.
“Thursday's GDP print solidifies the idea that the economy contracted during the first quarter, not because economic fundamentals are deteriorating, but because businesses stockpiled imports to get ahead of the early April Liberation Day tariffs, and that is a drag on GDP,” said Paul Stanley, chief investment officer at Granite Bay Wealth Management. “We expect the economy to avoid a recession, as GDP is likely to rebound in the second quarter.”
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the Fifth Straight Week Above 1.9 Million. The Labor Market is Softening.
Economy added just 74,000 jobs in July, well below 110,000 estimate, with major downward revisions to prior months
The BLS reported on Friday that 74,000 jobs were added in July, well below the 110,000 estimate of economists polled by LSEG. The report also revised job growth in May and June downward. May's gains were pared back by 125,000 to just 19,000 jobs created, while the June figures were revised down by 133,000 to just 14,000 jobs added that month.
According to the BLS, the last time a revision was down more than 133,000 was in March 2021, when it was revised down to 146,000 one year into the COVID pandemic.
US JOB GROWTH COOLED IN JULY AMID GROWING ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY
FED'S FAVORED INFLATION GAUGE SHOWS CONSUMER PRICES ROSE AGAIN IN JUNE
In an ironic twist, McEntarfar was confirmed in the Senate in January 2024 by a vote of 86-8. One of those voting for her confirmation was then-Senator JD Vance.
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This additional data today is more VERY POWERFUL evidence to go with the points/responses to mcfarm 2 months ago:
I stated this on June 7, 2025 with explanations for the reasoning at the links/posts below it:
"These monthly jobs reports continue to be FAKE NEWS!"
Re: evolution of Atlanta fed est. of GDP...shocking
By metmike - June 7, 2025, 8:27 a.m.
Re: Re: evolution of Atlanta fed est. of GDP...shocking
By metmike - June 7, 2025, 8:35 a.m.
Re: Re: Re: evolution of Atlanta fed est. of GDP...shocking
By metmike - June 7, 2025, 8:45 a.m.
evolution of Atlanta fed est. of GDP...shocking
By metmike - June 7, 2025, 1:08 p.m.
Re: evolution of Atlanta fed est. of GDP...shocking
By metmike - June 7, 2025, 2 p.m.
Re: Re: evolution of Atlanta fed est. of GDP...shocking
By metmike - June 7, 2025, 2:22 p.m.
Re: Re: Re: evolution of Atlanta fed est. of GDP...shocking
By metmike - June 7, 2025, 2:40 p.m.
Re: evolution of Atlanta fed est. of GDP...shocking
By metmike - June 12, 2025, 10:01 a.m.
Re: Re: Re: evolution of Atlanta fed est. of GDP...shocking
By metmike - June 27, 2025, 9:48 a.m.
There isn't enough extra time in my day to spend doing a great deal of additional analysis on these obviously FAKE statistics.
The FAKE part is in the intentionally overstated latest month most of the time to generate a positive headline, followed by downward revisions, sometimes big a couple of months later.
The pattern under Trump looks no different than the pattern under Biden as far as I can see. If anything, the INFLATED FAKE NUMBERS in the most current month were even MORE INFLATED and beneficial to the headlines under Trump.
I haven't followed these reports until just recently, so there's probably several things that I'm overlooking and would be grateful for comments.
Regardless, its clear that Trump fired this person because he wants to BLAME THEM for something that his problematic economic policies caused. He has never and will never take responsibility for dangerously flawed thinking and his refusal to take advice from WAY smarter people that are specialists.
He mainly hires and appoints people that will swear allegiance to Donald Trump and commit to being on his team of cheerleaders that are there to promote Donald Trump and follow his orders............regardless of whether they are counterproductive or not.
So who will replace the Chief at the Bureau of Labor statistics?
Fox News has run out of people to hire. Maybe the Fox News accountant
https://www.yahoo.com/news/21-fox-news-personalities-contributors-221718333.html
The pattern under Trump looks no different than the pattern under Biden as far as I can see.
I agree.
Thanks very much, cutworm!
This was intriguing enough for me to look closer. Why this overestimating of the front month, then having it revised downward is occurring so often?
These stats above show that yearly upward revisions of 100+ happened just 5 times since 2003 but downward revisions of the magnitude, 100+ happened 11 times. So more than double.
We should note that the WORST year was 2009 after the economy tanked in late 2008/early 2009? Was that a factor? The fact that 2020/2021 was a period without a need for big yearly revisions(2021 was only -7K and the closest of all) doesn't show that as a legit. correlation.
Let's look at just the most recent 12 MONTHS, prior to when this article came out.
Just 2 months with upward revisions of 10M or more. And 9 months with DOWNward revisions of 10M or more. This is 4.5 times more downward revision months. That's quite a bias towards OVER stating the initial number during that period and then revising it down.
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The 2 downward revised months today, May-125 K and June-133K were of a greater magnitude than any of the months in the above bar chart...by a lot! They totaled -258K for just 2 months. This is a HUGE downward revision number!
Only 33K total jobs were created in the May/June period, INSTEAD of the 291 K jobs created that was reported when they first stated the number!
So they initially over stated the job changes to the upside by a factor of 9!
That's much WORSE than not reporting anything because the size of the error greatly exceeds the actual change!!! I would say that it would be much better to just wait until they have THE FINAL NUMBER!!!
Does that make sense to you?
What was the benefit to using the really wrong number for 2 months compared to not knowing but waiting longer to get the more accurate number??
They can minimize this if they just released the number in 3 month blocks. For instance, if they had waited until today to release May-June-July at the same time. Or just May-June if those are the only 2 months AFTER the revisions which we can have confidence on?
The article above explains the methodology and why this is happening. It sounds reasonable but maybe they are not telling us everything? I don't have the expertise to know for sure.
The White House
A lengthy history of inaccuracies and incompetence by Erika McEntarfer, the former Biden-appointed Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has completely eroded public trust in the government agency charged with disseminating key data used by policymakers and businesses to make consequential decisions.
Under McEntarfer, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) consistently published overly optimistic jobs numbers — only for those numbers to be quietly revised later:
Trump actually has a good point here about the size of the revisions being unacceptable. With him, it hard to separate his REAL objective when its about something that features his bad policies bearing much of the blame.
He insisted today that the MORE ACCURATE REVISIONS were fake and wrong(and that he's a victim and this was done intentionally because the BLS was a Biden hire-that used fake numbers last year to try to get Kamala elected)
The MUCH MORE ACCURATE numbers were the revisions and NOT the ones he liked before the revisions. This is the main reason for him to fire the top dog. So his point is a good one BUT FOR THE WRONG REASON!
Changing the person in charge, if they continue to use the same methodology is not going to fix the problem. Knowing Trump, he will pick somebody that, when interviewed will pledge to do things the way Trumps wants them to be done.
This much weaker jobs number also makes Trump's case for cutting interest rates a stronger one. It probably locks it in and they could do it ASAP. He can only blame himself and the tariffs for the Fed NOT cutting interest rates already.
It’s likely, that if this trend continues Trump will blame the Fed for not cutting interest rates instead of his tariffs. I’ve been screaming bloody murder about how his absurd tariffs will damage our economy by later this year and wrecking our long lived trading relationships and trust with our trading partners Based on the principles of trading between countries with unequal income and GDP disparities.
And the damage to benefits ratio FOR BOTH SIDES is so extremely lopsided to the damage side that only somebody with pathological thinking, combined with a complete lack of comprehension of these basic principles, given way more power……WAY MORE POWER than 1 person should ever have (for this very reason) could get us in this much trouble.
We‘ve only just started to pay the price. I continue to insist that President Trump be impeached ASAP because he is completely broken and violating many principles that go well beyond just global trading relationships and how they impact economies.
The scariest thing is that an impeachment proceeding might trigger him to start a nuclear war with Russia as a survival tactic, similar to how psychopath Netanyahu, his idol has used the war in Gaza and Iran to survive his corruption charges.
Enough people in the US hate Russia that he would try to get us to unite with him against a common enemy.p and ignore the current differences based on things that he should be getting held accountable for.
He could only take this tactic so far in many realms but Congress and its R majority has capitulated and given Trump much of its power so the balance of power principles written into the Constitution have been extremely violated and disrupted by this authoritarian.
However, he could declare a war with Russia and is likely considering that right now as a political survival strategy, with personal and political benefits to D. Trump being the most important factor as it always is with him.
WE (MAGA-FOX NEWS) and Congress let him get this out of control(enabling and reinforcing the negatives of Donald Trump) and its created one of the most dangerous situations that our country has ever faced, here in 2025 for at least the rest of this year and likely longer.
Putin is no dummy and this could actually turn out with a positive because Putin knows Trump(has been playing him like a drum) and realizes that, unlike Biden(though cognitively impaired would never start a nuclear war) Trump WOULD PREFER A NUCLEAR WAR to losing his power.
Putin wants to push this as far as he can go and loose cannnon, very unstable and unpredictable President Trump has gone from giving in to and enabling him to confronting him and the next step could be to provoke a war with him that could go nuclear as a political strategy to try to survive his collapsing world domestically.
Its not a matter of whether Trump would do this but a matter of how bad does it need to get for him TO DO IT.
Seriously, this could finally force Putin to the negotiating table and end the war...........with, ironically President Trump being the hero but with a potential humanity destroying, high stakes game of chicken.
Putin is also a ruthless psychopath that does not respect humanity and only cares about his agenda. So how far will he push it.
Putin is also a brilliant(but deranged) war strategist. He already has control of his domestic situation. However, a war that goes nuclear will mean that BOTH SIDES LOSE. He has clearly won this phase of the war and will keep going until he can't win anymore.
Another psychopath leading the other side but even more desperate to survive, that cares more about that than the potential damage of a nuclear war to his side, could actually stop Putin.
Besides the Trump economy being weak on jobs/slowing down, we now have the inevitable inflation from his tariffs showing up. This was just a matter of math and time.
The worst of all to manage..........stagflation!!!
And at the same time, destroying long lived relationships between our trading partners that hurts both sides. All to collect tariffs FROM US COMPANIES that will be passing that on more and more to consumers.
I'm sorry but Donald Trump has no comprehension about the principles of global trading and economics as well as how they impact the US economy and consumers. He is the worst person possible to be making key decisions here.
https://now.fordham.edu/business-and-economics/what-is-stagflation-and-why-should-you-care/
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Trump's ruinous policies are mostly responsible for this. The solution?
Trump reversing his damaging policies or getting a new president that comprehends global trading and the economy.
Recent college graduates searching for jobs are finding that practical degrees, work experience and even connections are no match for sluggish